The Charlie Kirk Show - The RFK Trap with Rich Baris and Rep. Dan Bishop Aired: 2023-10-13 Duration: 36:20 === Jim Jordan Speaker Race (09:16) === [00:00:00] Hey, everybody. [00:00:00] Than the Charlie Kirk Show. [00:00:01] Rich Barris joins the program. [00:00:03] Does RFK Jr. help us or hurt us? [00:00:07] So check that out. [00:00:08] It's a great part of this episode. [00:00:10] And then Dan Bishop makes a big announcement about the speaker's race. [00:00:14] That's right. [00:00:15] We still don't have a speaker. [00:00:16] Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. [00:00:19] Become a member, charliekirk.com, and click on the members tab. [00:00:22] Get involved with Turning PointUSA today at tpusa.com. [00:00:25] That is tpusa.com, starting high school or college chapter today at tpusa.com. [00:00:32] Buckle up, everybody. [00:00:34] Here we go. [00:00:35] Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. [00:00:36] Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus. [00:00:38] I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk. [00:00:42] Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks. [00:00:45] I want to thank Charlie. [00:00:46] He's an incredible guy. [00:00:47] His spirit, his love of this country. [00:00:49] He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. [00:00:56] We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country. [00:01:04] That's why we are here. [00:01:08] Brought to you by the Loan Experts I Trust, Andrew and Todd at Sierra Pacific Mortgage at andrewandTodd.com. [00:01:16] We still do not have a Speaker of the House. [00:01:19] And Smart Money was looking at, oh, Steve Scalise. [00:01:22] Nope. [00:01:22] It looks like Steve Scalise is not. [00:01:24] And I want to ask our next guest about that, who's going to make some news. [00:01:28] He is fighting the good fight for our country and Congress, Congressman Dan Bishop, who just got out of a conference meeting. [00:01:35] Congressman, thank you for taking the time. [00:01:38] What is the latest with the speaker fight? [00:01:40] Fill us in. [00:01:41] Hi, Charlie. [00:01:42] I've stepped out. [00:01:43] The meeting is still going on. [00:01:45] Well, I was there for about an hour and a half. [00:01:47] I really had a call to allow conference to have a discussion over what appears to be the case that became clear after we broke yesterday once there was a vote to nominate Steve Scalise. [00:02:03] And that is became apparent, I think, to Steve's team that he didn't have 217 votes that he needs to get elected on the floor with Republicans. [00:02:13] And so this conversation is an effort to work through that. [00:02:19] You know, a number of people spoke of their support for Steve, and he does have support, but people spoke of their reasons for not agreeing, and they are issues that can't be resolved. [00:02:32] Some spoke about Steve's health concerns. [00:02:34] He gave assurances about that. [00:02:36] But for those members, there's no way to displace that concern. [00:02:41] People spoke about there not being a plan, that Steve doesn't appear to have a plan, whereas Jim Jordan does. [00:02:50] He answered at length, but it sort of remains. [00:02:54] And so I think these concerns aren't being displaced, aren't being answered, and we see other indications. [00:02:59] It doesn't appear that Steve Scalise can get to 218, 217, I guess is the number technically that we need now. [00:03:07] We'll see what else develops, but I would still say I think when it all is said and done, the person who can get to 217 is Jim Jordan. [00:03:16] And so it's a question of who can we support that can actually get to that number. [00:03:22] So are you now saying officially you are supporting Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House? [00:03:27] Well, I've said before the vote the other day, I said that I'm for Jim Jordan for Speaker, but this is sort of more of an iterative process beyond that. [00:03:39] Now, if Steve goes to the floor, having won the nomination from conference, I haven't decided for sure what I would do on the first ballot. [00:03:49] But if Steve's problem remains and I don't really see the indication that it's being resolved, then my support for Jim Jordan certainly would be as enthusiastic as ever. [00:04:01] And I believe that it is the answer that is maybe not yet apparent to everyone else in conference. [00:04:06] But again, the objections that there are, I gave a couple of examples. [00:04:12] They don't exist, I think, to Jim Jordan. [00:04:14] Those people who are conservatives are obviously fans of Jordan. [00:04:19] But it's beyond that. [00:04:21] He's been a very big team player here in the conference. [00:04:25] There are a couple of people who are irritated that at some point in time in the past he didn't help them in their campaigns. [00:04:32] But again, as he said, that's a different ballgame than once he's speaker and he'll help everybody. [00:04:37] So I think it seems to me that that is the person who is in the position ultimately to draw the 217 votes that are necessary to elect the next speaker. [00:04:49] I hope it happens faster than slower. [00:04:52] And again, I'll go on the floor and cast a vote for Steve Scalise. [00:04:57] If I'm wrong about where he stands or all the indications, then he'll become Speaker. [00:05:02] But I'm just saying that I don't think he's being able to deal. [00:05:07] I don't think he was able to make telephone calls and put to bed the problems. [00:05:11] And I don't think this meeting is going to do it either. [00:05:13] So, Congressman, that's a big deal saying that Jim Jordan is the only one that is then able to get to 217. [00:05:22] That's a big thing. [00:05:23] Do you think that then the moderate wing is going to try to hold this up? [00:05:27] And do you think there might be some hangover McCarthy loyalists that might just try to slow this down, maybe for spite or for any other reasons? [00:05:38] Can you fill us into some of those dynamics? [00:05:40] I would say that I think there are some establishmentarians, people who've been around here running things the way they want to run them for a long time, and they're not particularly inclined towards seeing a change of regime. [00:05:56] So one of the other things you've heard spoken about, Steve, is after everything that's happened, it seems like the least likely resolution is just to advance the next person down and run and get everybody, give everybody a promotion. [00:06:10] That doesn't seem to be the answer. [00:06:12] Well, I think that's okay with the old guard, but then the old guard seems to be resisting. [00:06:17] But I believe ultimately, once we get through the stages of grief, I think Jim's going to be the one who can get the votes from every corner of the conference. [00:06:28] So, Congressman, that's very helpful. [00:06:31] What is the best way our audience can help to try and support this effort to make Jim Jordan speaker? [00:06:40] Where do you see the greatest need of support from the American grassroots and from our audience? [00:06:45] Congressman Dan Bishop. [00:06:47] Voice their opinions, Charlie. [00:06:48] Voice their opinions. [00:06:50] It has much more impact than people generally believe, but they should say they should call their congressman's offices in the Republican conference and tell them that that's where they think the answer lies, if indeed that's their view. [00:07:04] That Jim Jordan brings together all parts. [00:07:07] The Republican base has confidence in Jim Jordan. [00:07:11] He's shown himself to be a national figure, a great communicator. [00:07:15] He has been an honest broker. [00:07:17] That is perhaps the most important thing of all is to get someone who no one doubts is candid and truthful in talking and speaking to the American people. [00:07:27] Truthful, even when telling the American people that there are limits to what can be achieved all at one time. [00:07:33] So, if folks think Jim Jordan, as I do, is the person who ultimately can put together 217 votes, unify the Republican Conference, and provide a new dawn of leadership here in the Republican House majority, then let your congressman know that. [00:07:50] All right, Congressman Bishop, thank you so much. [00:07:52] Sorry for any of the technical issues and the delay. [00:07:54] We are going to continue to mobilize our audience behind Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House. [00:07:59] It would be a massive accomplishment. [00:08:00] Congressman Bishop, thank you so much. [00:08:02] Thank you, Charlie. [00:08:03] Email us freedom at charliekirk.com. [00:08:06] We have Rich Barris coming up in just a few minutes to talk about the RFK situation because I think we're right. [00:08:15] I got to be honest. [00:08:16] I think we're right. [00:08:17] I think it's going to hurt Trump. [00:08:18] I really do. [00:08:19] I'm going to be super interested. [00:08:21] We're going to have a whole conversation on that. [00:08:23] I want to replay this piece of tape here. [00:08:26] Let's play cut 101, please. [00:08:28] When Mark Milley was asked whether or not it was worth it, play cut 101, please. [00:08:34] To those who served in Afghanistan for two decades and lost family members and friends and wonder, was it worth it? [00:08:43] Well, that's always the question, right? [00:08:45] So 2,461 killed in action by the enemy in Afghanistan over 20 years. [00:08:50] Was it worth it? [00:08:51] Look, I can't answer that for other people. [00:08:54] That should be instructive for us. [00:08:57] That should be that right there should factor into our response to what we are going to do or not do in the Middle East. [00:09:07] Coming up after the break, I'm going to describe the different tribes and the different sects, sex, like sectarian. === NAD Secret to Longevity (02:51) === [00:09:16] Don't get too excited out there, you dirty-mind people that are out there on how they're thinking about Israel. [00:09:24] Okay? [00:09:24] I'm going to just kind of go through it all, everything from Lady Graham to Jew haters. [00:09:29] Okay, we're going to go through the whole deal because I think it's important because the conservative movement is far from united on this. [00:09:37] I think there is unanimous harmony on the outrage of what happened. [00:09:41] You're not seeing conservatives in the street chanting gas the Jews. [00:09:45] That is reserved just for liberal Democrats. [00:09:47] Liberal Democrats do that. [00:09:49] But there's going to be some, you're going to live through a pretty consequential time right now of how should the American right and the American conservative coalition support Israel, not support Israel, and think about it. [00:10:03] You're about to live through something historic because it's not going to be full-fledged agreement. [00:10:07] I'm going to walk through the different groups, the different tribes in regards to the Israel situation. [00:10:14] From Tucker Carlson to Vivek to Nikki Haley, Lindsey Graham. [00:10:18] We're going to walk through that. [00:10:21] Strong cell is amazing. [00:10:23] I got to tell you, the combination of NADH, CoQ10, and collagen is really something. [00:10:29] You know, people ask me, they say, Charlie, how do you keep your energy up? [00:10:32] How do you just keep on pushing? [00:10:33] Look, part of it is diet nutrition, but I'll be honest, I take supplements really seriously. [00:10:39] Fact-check me on this. [00:10:40] You can say, oh, Charlie, I'm going to fact-check you. [00:10:42] Type this into your search engine: NADH. [00:10:46] Just type it in. [00:10:47] What does it tell you? [00:10:49] It might tell you that it is the secret to living long, anti-aging properties, more energy. [00:10:54] Well, all of that is being proven in more and more clinical trials. [00:10:56] NADH is a precursor so that your mitochondria can remain healthy and vibrant. [00:11:03] The elites, a lot of billionaires, people, a lot of money, they spend a ton of money on NAD. [00:11:06] It's a fact. [00:11:07] NAD just might be your secret weapon for more energy. [00:11:10] I take NAD every single day. [00:11:13] I could tell you that NADH, compared with CoQ10, the trials show very, very good things. [00:11:19] Don't take my word for it. [00:11:20] I mean, honestly, my word should be good for something, but fact-check me. [00:11:23] Look at it. [00:11:24] And if you do it over 30 days, you'll see an increase in energy. [00:11:27] I wake up better than ever before. [00:11:29] NAD can help you potentially, again, fact check me on this with depression, anxiety, other issues that you might be dealing with. [00:11:36] It is nature's gift to you so that you might have extra energy and mental clarity. [00:11:41] You guys can use promo code Charlie for 20% off. [00:11:43] It's strongsell.com/slash Charlie. [00:11:46] NAD might be nature's secret weapon for you. [00:11:51] I love it. [00:11:52] I take it every single day. [00:11:54] Try to try it for at least 30 days to see the maximum benefit. [00:11:57] And let me know: has NAD helped your life? [00:11:59] Strongsell.com/slash Charlie. [00:12:01] Check it out. [00:12:02] Strongsell.com/slash Charlie. [00:12:06] This is important. === Hearing First on Israel (04:15) === [00:12:07] The kind of temporary conservative agreement on Israel is about to come to an end. [00:12:13] I'm telling you right now, I see the writing on the wall. [00:12:15] It's about to get really divisive. [00:12:19] You heard it here first. [00:12:20] So there's different groups. [00:12:22] The first group really doesn't deserve much of our attention. [00:12:25] There is legitimate, small, not widespread, fervent Jew hatred in the American right. [00:12:32] It's not a lot of people. [00:12:35] It is a thing. [00:12:39] It's been around for decades. [00:12:40] It's just how it is. [00:12:41] Jew hatred is one of the more vile things that any human being can come across. [00:12:45] And I encountered it at an event with Arizona State University with Dennis Prager. [00:12:48] It's small, but it's there. [00:12:49] Okay. [00:12:50] And some of them push forward narratives that then get adopted by people that don't actually hate Jews. [00:12:59] But I'll get to that in a second. [00:13:00] Okay. [00:13:00] The next category are people, and I fall somewhat in this category, to be honest. [00:13:05] I'm just probably more pro-Israel than some of the people in this. [00:13:07] Let's just say, like Vivek Ramaswamy, okay? [00:13:10] Which are people that are very, very skeptical, okay, of foreign interventions, very skeptical of sending troops, very skeptical of foreign wars, and honestly, people that are just tired of the Middle East. [00:13:23] And I'm largely in that camp, to be honest. [00:13:25] However, I do kind of traverse the next camp as well, which is, I love Israel. [00:13:31] Not as much as I love America, but Israel strengthened my faith as a Christian. [00:13:35] And I am in the debt of Israel to be able to see where my Lord rose from the dead, walked on the water. [00:13:42] Okay. [00:13:43] The next group, the third out of four, are people that on the American right are pro-Israel and they want to send support. [00:13:52] They want to send arms. [00:13:55] They want to send reconnaissance, maybe even air support. [00:13:59] Okay. [00:14:01] That's a pretty big group. [00:14:03] The last group are the insane people. [00:14:06] Okay. [00:14:07] They don't hate Jews. [00:14:08] They just love war. [00:14:09] And that's like Lindsey Graham and Nikki Haley and that whole cabal. [00:14:13] Okay. [00:14:14] So I'm not going to pay much attention to Nikki Haley and Lindsey Graham and Mike Pence, who are just saying ridiculous things, honestly. [00:14:23] Okay. [00:14:24] And I'm not going to pay much attention to the Jew haters. [00:14:27] I will instead talk about where this is going to head. [00:14:31] The serious conversation will head to the following, which is what should America's reaction to what's happening in Israel be? [00:14:41] And that's a good conversation to have. [00:14:43] And to be honest, I've said this the whole time. [00:14:45] I'm kind of a moderate on it. [00:14:47] I am a war-weary millennial, millennial that has known nothing but foreign conflict since my earliest memories. [00:14:53] Nation building has bankrupted the United States, morally and financially bankrupted us. [00:14:58] It's been a failure in Iraq, failure in Afghanistan. [00:15:01] Ukraine is a disaster. [00:15:02] That is important to keep on mentioning. [00:15:04] It's not insignificant. [00:15:06] It's very, very important. [00:15:08] All the while, you must use prudence and reality that Israel is a different situation at this current moment. [00:15:15] It just is. [00:15:16] Some ways there's similarities, in some ways, there's differences. [00:15:18] And yes, the Nikki Haley types are going to try to take advantage of the situation to try to just invade the world. [00:15:26] Garbage. [00:15:27] So, some of the people that are more in the camp that would say we do not want to intervene, I got to defend them because it's very, very understandable because they're looking at what's happening in Israel. [00:15:40] And I'll tell you this: you know, the media is, I know the next wave of articles because they've been way too critical of the Islamists lately in the media. [00:15:49] The next wave of articles, you heard it here first over the weekend. [00:15:52] You've heard it here first. [00:15:54] Right-wing conspiracies spread about Netanyahu government knowing about attack or, you know, some I guarantee you that's the next round of articles by the New York Times, The Washington Post. [00:16:07] And I got to be honest, I do not fault people after how much we have been lied to and how we are usually presented a narrative that seems to be clean and pristine when in reality, it's built on a pile of lies. === Media Lies Exposed (02:05) === [00:16:23] Whether it be the origin of COVID, the Hunter Biden laptop, vaccine safe and effective, all the Ukraine stuff, southern borders completely and totally secure. [00:16:34] I didn't discuss any business dealings with my son. [00:16:37] I don't trust the government. [00:16:38] And I think a lot of other people don't trust the government. [00:16:41] And I mean, I get these emails every so often. [00:16:43] They say, Charlie, I don't trust anything that's coming out of Israel. [00:16:47] I get where you're coming from. [00:16:48] I really do. [00:16:49] But I got to be honest, this one is actually pretty easy to see. [00:16:54] Video, pictures, first-hand testimony of kids being killed, burned alive. [00:17:01] It's not a psyop. [00:17:02] So you have to balance that and understand where people are coming from because they have been burned so many times. [00:17:10] Worth building that out further. [00:17:12] You're about to see a pretty serious debate unfold in the American right over Israel. [00:17:20] Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here. [00:17:21] And like many of you, I'm a busy guy balancing family, show, travel, and TPUSA. [00:17:26] When I needed a mortgage, I went to my friends, Andrew Delray and Todd of Aiki at Sierra Pacific. [00:17:31] They were amazing. [00:17:31] And look, I had some complicated stuff. [00:17:33] Don't need to go into the details. [00:17:34] They handled it personally. [00:17:37] Call them if you have an aging family member, for example, that needs some financial relief. [00:17:41] Ask them about a reverse mortgage. [00:17:43] If you're self-employed and are finding it difficult to qualify because of that, they have my 100% full and complete endorsement. [00:17:50] Call them and help you prepare. [00:17:51] I'm telling you, anything mortgage-related, please call them and not the big woke bags. [00:17:55] Go to AndrewandTodd.com. [00:17:56] That's AndrewandTodd.com. [00:17:58] Fill out the quick form and they will get back to you with answers. [00:18:00] Call them at 888-888-1172, AndrewNTodd.com. [00:18:04] They're good friends of mine. [00:18:06] Full and complete endorsement. [00:18:07] If you are a first-time homebuyer, renting, and want to be, they'll call and help you prepare. [00:18:11] Check it out. [00:18:12] AndrewandTodd.com. [00:18:13] That is AndrewNTodd.com. [00:18:16] Fill out the quick form and they'll get you back with answers, andrewTodd.com. [00:18:21] Joining us now is Rich Barris. [00:18:23] Rich, I've been telling Andrew to try to book you for quite some time now from Big Data Poll. === Macro Polling Insights (09:37) === [00:18:29] You do a great job and we have you on frequently. [00:18:32] So, Rich, as soon as I started to see the whispers that RFK Jr. was running as an independent, we did an entire show building out just based on anecdotal evidence, based on some political instincts that we've developed, that this would hurt Donald Trump far more than it would hurt Joe Biden. [00:18:53] Rich, you're a data guy. [00:18:55] Feel free to say, Charlie, you are right. [00:18:57] You are wrong, whatever. [00:18:58] What does the data show, Rich Barris, RFK Jr., running as an independent in regards to Trump and Biden? [00:19:06] As always, Charlie, thanks for having me back on. [00:19:09] You're right. [00:19:09] It's been too long. [00:19:11] I'm glad to be back. [00:19:12] Look, there's a couple of ways that people looked at this anecdotally. [00:19:16] And we just did this survey, which is the main theme of the survey is what is the impact? [00:19:20] What is the RFK effect? [00:19:22] And then what is the RFK effect with West and the race? [00:19:25] And people can go and check it out now, bigdatapoll.com, and they'll see. [00:19:29] Look, Charlie, you know, there's kind of the macro way people were looking at this. [00:19:33] Oh, he's a Democrat, and automatically he's going to pull from Biden. [00:19:37] There was that side of the macro argument. [00:19:40] And then there's another one, which is one that I suspected, which was that there's only room for one outsider in a presidential race. [00:19:49] Like if you're looking at it macro from a macro point of view and you're looking at it at like lanes, like we do in a primary, right? [00:19:56] There is one establishment candidate, two outsiders or two anti-establishment candidates. [00:20:02] They're going to split the anti-establishment vote at least some way, no matter how, whether it's 80-20, 90-10, doesn't matter. [00:20:08] But they're going to split it, and that's going to allow the establishment candidate to win. [00:20:12] So we decided to, you know, that this poll was going to be the micro way of looking at this that was going to once and for all decide which one was right. [00:20:21] And the short answer, Charlie, is that it hurts Donald Trump about a point more than it hurts Joe Biden. [00:20:29] And the reason for that is, I mean, I would like to say it's simple, but it's not that cut and dry. [00:20:35] Trump leads by two when it's just him and Biden and a generic someone else. [00:20:40] He leads by one when RFK is in the race. [00:20:43] If you put West in there, he leads by three. [00:20:46] You can see that trend right there. [00:20:48] Actually, the mere talk, Charlie, the mere talk of an independent run by RFK decreased the share of the two-party vote because there is an appetite out there for a legitimate independent run. [00:20:59] Now, campaigns go on and people decide to make choices, and often that third-party vote share will decline. [00:21:05] And we'll probably see the two-party vote share go back up. [00:21:08] But let me put it by region first. [00:21:11] RFK, despite his name, despite him being a Kennedy, despite him being from the Northeast, the Northeast, anywhere between 18% to 20% of the total vote nationwide is the smallest, but it's the most liberal. [00:21:24] That is where RFK gets not just total votes. [00:21:27] He gets the least share of the vote from the Northeast. [00:21:31] If you look at who RFK voters are, they come from the South, which is 35 to 38% of the total vote nationwide. [00:21:39] The South is the largest group for RFK, followed by, guess where? [00:21:44] And by the way, the South is the most Republican, followed by the Midwest, which is about 22% of the vote. [00:21:51] And then followed closely behind that is the Western part of the country. [00:21:56] So it hurts Trump because it is drawing voters who, without RFK in the race, would otherwise back Donald Trump. [00:22:04] By education, RFK does not have support from educated voters. [00:22:09] His support is a ladder. [00:22:11] You could look at it like a ladder from high school to post-grad, you're going down the ladder, right? [00:22:16] And it's 12 points something among those who have no high school or high school and GD equivalent or lower. [00:22:23] Among those who have a two-year associate's degree, he gets about 10%, which is Trump's strongest group. [00:22:29] And then when you get into the educated, he falls into the single digits. [00:22:33] Again, Charlie, there are more conservatives in this country than there are liberals. [00:22:37] So if you're getting an equal share, slightly more, one point more share from conservatives, you're drawing more of the conservative vote than you're drawing of the liberal vote. [00:22:47] It's about 12% for each, a little bit more for conservative, but it's twice the actual number of votes coming from conservatives. [00:22:55] So I understand how some other pollsters could screw this up. [00:22:59] It's not hard to screw up. [00:23:02] And you may even think, you know, looking at it nationally, it helps Trump a little bit, but not when you look at this from a micro-demographic point of view. [00:23:10] And this election is decided by the Electoral College. [00:23:14] Individual races in all of our states. [00:23:17] It is not decided by the national popular vote. [00:23:20] So you could seriously have a situation where Trump wins the popular vote by a point and loses the Electoral College. [00:23:27] Why? [00:23:27] Because of Macomb County, Michigan, because of Monroe County, Michigan. [00:23:33] You need big margins from those two to offset how much you're going to get creamed in Wayne, right? [00:23:38] And in other areas around Wayne. [00:23:41] And by the way, Oakland, very educated. [00:23:43] He draws nothing from that part. [00:23:45] He draws nothing from urban centers. [00:23:48] So it's coming, his biggest share comes from rural America. [00:23:52] So, Rich, so many questions, issues. [00:23:55] Is this mostly a COVID revenge vote, a medical freedom that I don't like that Trump had Fauci? [00:24:03] You know, I don't like the vaccine. [00:24:05] Is that what is animating this? [00:24:07] We definitely heard that. [00:24:09] There's two things going on. [00:24:10] I think you nailed it, the one, because we heard that a lot. [00:24:14] And that's why I tried on social media to say there's a right way and a very wrong way to attack RFK if you're Donald Trump. [00:24:21] One could do irreparable damage. [00:24:23] If you go after him and say he's a nutcase on vaccines, look at him. [00:24:27] Even Democrats think he's nuts. [00:24:29] You may think that looks good to you and your voters, but it's going to hurt the normies that you need in the Rust Belt because they are vaccine hesitant as well. [00:24:38] And then there is also, Charlie, I think just this group of people who feel that the entire system is rigged. [00:24:45] And when they hear RFK say things like, you know, we don't have true capitalism or true freedom in this country. [00:24:52] We have a split system that is some soft, cushy form of socialism for the rich and then a brutal form of fascism-capitalism hybrid for everybody else down below. [00:25:04] People are receptive to that in parts of, again, the Rust Belt, the South. [00:25:09] I don't think it's going to be enough to cost Trump southern states, even though his vote share comes from the South. [00:25:14] But think about this. [00:25:15] Think about Georgia, Charlie. [00:25:16] Think about if he does not, he pulls more. [00:25:18] That's another demographic. [00:25:20] He pulls more white voters. [00:25:21] 75% of all of those who said they would vote for RFK are white. [00:25:26] Though the electorate is only going to be 68 to 72, maybe 67 to 71% white in 2024. [00:25:34] So he's drawing a disproportionately high share of the white vote, and he's doing it in regions of the country that are white and that Trump needs. [00:25:42] I don't think it's going to cost him Kentucky or Tennessee, but think about Georgia. [00:25:46] If he's not pulling black voters significantly from Joe Biden and West does not get on the ballot, he could pull enough in central and southern Georgia to cost Donald Trump Georgia. [00:25:55] I think it's time people really start waking up to this. [00:25:58] You know, do I think right now we're at a point where that's going to happen? [00:26:02] Trump's lead to me looks durable enough at this moment. [00:26:05] But Charlie, you and I both know it doesn't matter who the nominee is. [00:26:09] It doesn't, you know, I heard this nonsense yesterday from the pollstered Fox News. [00:26:14] Well, Trump's only down because so many Democrats want to vote if Trump's the nominee. [00:26:19] Democrats are going to vote, and they're going to vote in incredibly high numbers, whether they themselves cast those ballots or they get others to cast them for them. [00:26:28] They are going to vote. [00:26:30] And you just simply cannot have somebody pulling any votes away from you in states that are going to come down to the wire. [00:26:38] Right now, I would say he's still got it, Charlie, and it's durable enough. [00:26:42] But God, it turns a comfortable win into a nail biter, Charlie. [00:26:48] So with Cornell West not being on the Green Party, running as an independent, question one, we have three minutes remaining. [00:26:54] Does that limit potential for ballot access? [00:26:57] Question two, Cornell West in general. [00:27:00] How does that factor into the RFK thing? [00:27:04] Yeah, if you're a Trump supporter, if you're a Republican, you absolutely want Cornell West on the ballot with or without RFK on the ballot as well, because he does draw enough away from Joe Biden. [00:27:17] And by the way, he pulls a little bit away from RFK as well. [00:27:21] So it's an interesting dynamic. [00:27:23] He pulls a few non-white votes away from RFK. [00:27:27] And then, you know, again, it was Trump plus two in the head-to-head. [00:27:30] Trump plus one with RFK alone. [00:27:32] But if you add West to the mix, it goes back up to Trump plus three because there comes a point in Trump's vote where it just refuses to fall anymore. [00:27:40] And that is the core of Trump's support. [00:27:42] It's about 40%. [00:27:44] They're MAGA. [00:27:45] They're not moving. [00:27:46] They're for Trump and they're not going anywhere. [00:27:48] So at some point, the more candidates on the ballot, the more it hurts them. [00:27:52] But it does limit ballot access. [00:27:54] I think we're all going to find out that Democrats bought Cornell West a vacation home somewhere and he gave up the Green Party, which has two things he does not: experience and organization. [00:28:05] Yeah, no, look, and here's the tell. === Core Trump Support Base (08:12) === [00:28:07] I monitor Democrat hysteria. [00:28:09] About 90 days ago, there was a political article: Biden Camp Scrambles to Keep Cornell West off-green ballot and no labels off-ballot. [00:28:17] No Democrat, no Democrat that I read, and I read all their trash, is upset that RFK Jr. is running at Independent. [00:28:25] They are thrilled. [00:28:27] They are thrilled because RFK Jr. is a low-trust candidate, meaning vote for me if you have low trust in government, low trust in institutions. [00:28:36] Donald Trump is a low-trust candidate. [00:28:39] Cornell West is basically black identitarianism, right? [00:28:44] That hurts the Democrats, especially in Georgia, especially in Wisconsin. [00:28:49] Arizona, I don't think he moves the dial much, right? [00:28:51] I'd be shocked if he surpassed 1%. [00:28:53] I want to ask you about no labels, but the Democrats, I know this is a fact. [00:28:58] Molly Ball is probably going to write the article. [00:29:00] The shadow campaign, how Democrats prevented RFK from primary Biden. [00:29:05] The shadow campaign, how, you know, Reid Hoffman bought Cornell West a home in Turks and Caicos, right? [00:29:13] That's coming. [00:29:14] I guarantee it, right? [00:29:15] No, no, it's it. [00:29:16] The Democrats have been working the ropes. [00:29:18] We, as Republicans, are too busy, you know, having our Chinese fire drill that we call a speaker's house race. [00:29:23] I don't even know what the heck it is. [00:29:24] It's embarrassing. [00:29:26] And, you know, Democrats are having a series of clandestine meetings where they are working the ropes, doing threats, gifts, carrots, little spice, little sugar, a little jail time, whatever it takes to get these guys out of the way, they do it. [00:29:44] Hey, Charlie Kirk here. [00:29:45] If you guys love this program and you want to support this program, if we have impacted or blessed your life in any way, I want to tell you about a new thing that we are starting it up. [00:29:54] First of all, if you have supported us at charliekirk.com/slash support, nothing to worry about. [00:29:59] You guys are going to be moved on over. [00:30:01] If you want to support us even more and say, hey, I want exclusive content. [00:30:04] I want to talk to Charlie directly. [00:30:06] We are standing up this amazing infrastructure team's been working so hard at members.charliekirk.com. [00:30:12] Not only is it a way to support us directly outside of all of the other channels, but get this: live QAs of me and the team. [00:30:20] Articles exclusively written by me that you won't find anywhere else. [00:30:23] Pre-show prep calls and more. [00:30:25] Sign up today at members.charliekirk.com. [00:30:28] We love bringing our show every day, and we can't wait to bring you even more content that is just for you at the Charlie Kirk exclusive. [00:30:35] That's members.charliekirk.com. [00:30:37] Head to members.charliekirk.com today. [00:30:40] Yes, there's going to be a lot of goodies, a lot of engagement, a lot of fun stuff. [00:30:43] But even more than that, if you feel moved and compelled that our show is impacting you and impacting the world, it would mean a lot if you became a member at members.charliekirk.com. [00:30:56] So, Rich, I'm a big college football fan. [00:30:58] It's one of my few indulgences. [00:30:59] The audience knows this. [00:31:00] So, I watch, I used to not be a fan of this guy, but he's actually grown on me, Pat McAfee. [00:31:06] And he has a very successful podcast, his college game day. [00:31:09] He had Aaron Rodgers on the show, right? [00:31:10] So, they're talking about Travis Kelsey and all that. [00:31:13] And Aaron Rodgers up. [00:31:14] He's like, we got to have my boy RFK Jr. On the show, Joe Rogan's pushing RFK Jr. [00:31:21] And so here you go, younger men, trendy, you know, maybe into MMA, UFC, college football, monster energy drinks. [00:31:30] You get the archetype, right? [00:31:31] Not a small group, by the way, 15 to 20 million of them. [00:31:35] They are not left-wingers, but it's not fashionable to be around Donald Trump, right? [00:31:39] And in that sort of community, the Joe Rogan bros, who do they vote for? [00:31:46] They're gonna, this is a group that I failed in the last segment to mention, but this is the group. [00:31:53] They fall into the category when we poll them. [00:31:56] They'll tell us they're independent, but of course, most independents are full of it. [00:31:59] So we always ask them, do you align more with Republicans, Democrats, equally with both? [00:32:05] Or do you share little in common with either of these parties? [00:32:09] They are the last group. [00:32:11] I share little in common with either. [00:32:13] When RFK is not in the race, Trump clobbers Joe Biden by double digits with this group. [00:32:19] Say that against Donald Trump. [00:32:22] Say that again. [00:32:22] No, no, no, hold on. [00:32:23] Slow down. [00:32:24] When RFK is not in the race, Trump does what? [00:32:27] He clobbers Joe Biden with these voters. [00:32:30] Almost 20 points, Charlie. [00:32:31] Double digits. [00:32:32] And then with RFK, his lead falls to the low single digits, a little over three points. [00:32:38] So even though, again, on the surface, I understand what people are saying, but when you look at the individual demographics and where are these people, Charlie, where do they live? [00:32:48] All right. [00:32:48] Some of them, yes, are out west. [00:32:51] A lot of them are in the Midwest and, of course, in southern states. [00:32:55] Yeah. [00:32:55] This is not a North Arizona. [00:32:58] I think Arizona by proportion in any swing state has the most Joe Rogan bros of any state. [00:33:04] Nevada's got a lot of them too. [00:33:05] Nevada. [00:33:06] Right. [00:33:07] They hunt. [00:33:08] They own guns. [00:33:09] They're a little socially liberal. [00:33:10] They might smoke some weed. [00:33:12] Right. [00:33:13] They're not necessarily Christian. [00:33:15] They own some Bitcoin, right? [00:33:17] They bet on sports. [00:33:19] They watch barstool. [00:33:20] They'll listen to Joe Rogan. [00:33:22] You know, they'll lift weights. [00:33:24] Right. [00:33:25] And that archetype, I'm telling you, there's more of that kind of voter in Arizona, a lot in Georgia, too, right? [00:33:33] They're 26, graduated Arizona State University, working at a finance firm or like at a local bank, right? [00:33:41] And RFK is fashionable, acceptable for a demographic that otherwise Trump would dominate with. [00:33:51] That's right. [00:33:53] You know, you brought up Arizona. [00:33:54] That's why Martha McSally lost pretty comfortably to Mark Kelly in 2020, but Trump was so close. [00:34:02] It is that voter. [00:34:03] We actually saw them and brought them up back in 2020. [00:34:07] They all call themselves moderate. [00:34:09] They'll call themselves independent. [00:34:10] But they're either advanced degrees, but they have between a high school education to like a four-year. [00:34:19] A lot of them have a two-year. [00:34:20] They hate big pharma. [00:34:22] They can't stand big pharma. [00:34:23] I mean, that is that group. [00:34:25] And with our RFK in the race, they take from Trump. [00:34:30] The only thing I will say is this. [00:34:32] As time moves on, there's 30 plus percent every poll, Charlie, when we ask people if they're voting for RFK, what happens if RFK is not the nominee, the Democratic nominee? [00:34:43] We've been asking this for months. [00:34:45] And they tell us, if it's not RFK and Trump is the Republican nominee, I will vote for Donald Trump. [00:34:52] Even if a third of them say to themselves, you know, RFK is not going to win. [00:34:57] So I want to vote at least for someone who's going to win. [00:35:00] Yeah, okay. [00:35:01] So Trump gets a third of it. [00:35:02] But that's not what he was going to get without RFK in the race. [00:35:06] If RFK is not there, he gets them all. [00:35:09] It's really that simple. [00:35:10] I recently had an event, and it was a Trump favorable event, 2,000 people. [00:35:14] I said, raise your hand if you're going to vote for RFK. [00:35:16] Say about 10% of the hands go up. [00:35:17] It's catastrophic for Donald Trump. [00:35:19] I don't think Trump can win if RFK Jr. remains as an independent and we don't have a hedge of a Cornell West or a no-labels. [00:35:26] I am that opinion. [00:35:28] And or, and, or Trump redirects his fire to bring down RFK's favorables, which you're going to have to see. [00:35:34] Trump might have to fight a two-front war. [00:35:36] Sound familiar? [00:35:37] He might have to fight a two-front war against RFK and Joe Biden. [00:35:40] But do not assume just because, oh, RFK is a Kennedy Democrat. [00:35:45] Think deeper. [00:35:45] Look at Rich Barris' data. [00:35:47] Big data poll. [00:35:48] Check out his show. [00:35:49] That's what's your show called? [00:35:50] Inside the Numbers. [00:35:52] Couldn't be more appropriately titled, Charlie, because that's why we do this. [00:35:56] You know, you can't look at the headlines at a glance. [00:35:59] The answers are inside the numbers. [00:36:01] Monday, Wednesday, Friday before your show. [00:36:03] Rich, thanks so much. [00:36:05] All the best, brother. [00:36:06] Thanks so much for listening, everybody. [00:36:07] Email us as always: freedom at charliekirk.com. [00:36:10] Thanks so much for listening, and God bless. [00:36:16] For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.