The Charlie Kirk Show - Building a New Republican Machine
Aired: 2022-11-14
Duration: 35:11


=== Suspicion of Ballot Fraud (10:35) ===

[00:00:00]  Hey everybody, today the Charlie Kirk Show Breaking Down Arizona.
[00:00:03]  Man, it is a battle here.
[00:00:05]  I do it with producer Andrew.
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[00:00:19]  Buckle up, everybody.
[00:00:20]  Here we go.
[00:00:21]  Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
[00:00:22]  Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
[00:00:24]  I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
[00:00:28]  Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
[00:00:31]  I want to thank Charlie.
[00:00:32]  He's an incredible guy.
[00:00:33]  His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.
[00:00:40]  Turning point USA.
[00:00:42]  We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
[00:00:50]  That's why we are here.
[00:00:53]  Brought to you by the Loan Experts I Trust, Andrew and Todd at Sierra Pacific Mortgage at AndrewandTodd.com.
[00:01:02]  We had a very long weekend tabulating numbers and streaming late into the evening.
[00:01:09]  And so, Andrew, you and I were running the numbers all Sunday, and I found it to be very conservative that Carrie Lake would break 60% in this drop last evening, and she got 54.5%.
[00:01:23]  The only explanation is that she lost Independence Day of in Chandler and Mesa and in Gilbert, where a lot of those ballots came from, including in Congressional District 1.
[00:01:35]  In order for this to be as they say it is, it means that Carrie Lake was running behind David Schweikert.
[00:01:42]  She's running behind the congressional candidates.
[00:01:44]  So, Andrew, what's your take on all this?
[00:01:47]  Yeah, I mean, I think what I want to say is that we hear you.
[00:01:52]  We're getting all your notes.
[00:01:53]  We're getting all your emails.
[00:01:55]  We're seeing you on Twitter.
[00:01:56]  We're seeing you on the Telegram chats.
[00:01:58]  We're seeing you everywhere.
[00:01:59]  I mean, Charlie, I know there's a lot of suspicion out there that there is something untoward happening.
[00:02:06]  And I think I understand that suspicion.
[00:02:09]  We are hearing, however, from people that know what they're talking about that there are eyes and ears at every step of the process, that there are Republican observers literally at every step of the process.
[00:02:22]  Now, that being said, you know, you tweeted out something the other day that I thought was profound.
[00:02:26]  It's if there is the appearance of impropriety, it can be just as damaging as if there is impropriety.
[00:02:33]  So, yeah, to your point, a lot of people are suspicious.
[00:02:37]  A lot of people are crunching the numbers.
[00:02:38]  You know, to your credit, it wasn't just you sitting on the back of an envelope doing math during the last couple of days.
[00:02:44]  You've been calling everybody.
[00:02:45]  We've had Rich Barris.
[00:02:46]  We've been talking to people to campaign.
[00:02:48]  We've been talking to independent observers and pollsters.
[00:02:52]  Everybody gained this out that Carrie had a very clear path.
[00:02:56]  As a matter of fact, she was after election night and day two, she was the clear favorite, even in the betting markets that reflected it.
[00:03:03]  And yet, at every single drop, she missed her mark just by enough that as this accumulated drop by drop by drop, essentially this path continues to narrow.
[00:03:16]  And now there's still a path, but it keeps getting narrower.
[00:03:19]  So we need to have a monster night tonight.
[00:03:22]  I'm assuming there will be a follow-up night after that.
[00:03:25]  But the bottom line is, you know, you could take your imagination down two paths.
[00:03:31]  One, there's fraud.
[00:03:33]  Okay.
[00:03:35]  I don't have any evidence of that.
[00:03:37]  What we can say is that on election day, a day that favors conservatives, a day that favors Republican voters, and we talked about this a lot, there were massive problems.
[00:03:49]  How many people were disenfranchised?
[00:03:51]  How many people were told to go to another polling place only to run out of time, have to go back to work, have to pick up the kids?
[00:03:57]  How many voters did we lose because the county could not get their stuff together?
[00:04:02]  Well, it was, I mean, and we warned about the Election Day traffic jam here.
[00:04:06]  But look, I mean, I do believe that, I mean, look, the focus has been on tabulation and all the stuff happening in the Maricopa County Recorder's Office.
[00:04:14]  But I can say very confidently that there's incredibly suspicious ballot drops happening in some of these areas.
[00:04:22]  I refuse to believe that the Democrats are not ballot harvesting.
[00:04:25]  It's illegal in Arizona, but there is no other explanation that when you see these massive spikes in Democrat areas, I mean massive spikes.
[00:04:36]  Katie Hobbs is outpacing Joe Biden in Tempe and in downtown Phoenix.
[00:04:43]  And so this is the debate right now.
[00:04:45]  So it says that there actually might be 94,000 ballots in Maricopa County.
[00:04:50]  Now, there is a chance, it's a small chance, there is a chance that Maricopa is so incompetent or sinister that there's like 10 to 15,000 really good Republican ballots still out there in like drawer three, because we keep on getting emails from people where they are saying, my ballot has not been counted, my ballot has not been counted, my ballot has not been counted all across Maricopa.
[00:05:15]  Okay.
[00:05:16]  But every single model that we had, just so you guys understand, and, you know, we appreciate you guys watching the program all weekend, but you know, going through this, it's just been shocking and stunning because Kerry Lake won day of independence two and a half to one, even three to one in certain parts of the valley.
[00:05:34]  But then we're supposed to believe that she then loses independence if someone then drops off their ballot.
[00:05:39]  That means there is a 20 to 25 point drop off between independents that voted in person and then dropped off their ballot.
[00:05:49]  It defies gravity.
[00:05:51]  It defies logic.
[00:05:52]  And so if there are 94,000 ballots left in Maricopa County, it could be box three.
[00:05:58]  It could be favorable Republican mail-ins.
[00:06:00]  It could be really bad ballots for us.
[00:06:03]  And so we do not know that.
[00:06:05]  We're going to have more clarity tonight, but also we have the Pima bucket as well that we have to go through.
[00:06:11]  And so, look, this entire thing has been incredibly frustrating of the multi-days of counting and of going through this.
[00:06:23]  But this is not over.
[00:06:25]  Hope is not lost.
[00:06:26]  Number one, there can be an opportunity for us to reach out and get people to cure their ballots, which could be 2,000 or 3,000 potentially Republican-cured votes.
[00:06:37]  Democrats are doing this right now, which they have an entire ballot curing operation.
[00:06:42]  That's number one.
[00:06:43]  Number two, we'll see how Pima County goes.
[00:06:46]  Number three, there's still ballots left in Pinal and some of the rules that might help on the margins, that might help on the margins.
[00:06:53]  But the most critical thing is what's happening tonight.
[00:06:56]  And if it's 72,000, not as good news, but if it's 90,000, then it's very curious, where are these ballots coming from in the valley?
[00:07:05]  And, you know, basically, you know, people are emailing us freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:07:10]  And I could see people are very angry.
[00:07:12]  You know, people are saying that, Charlie, it's completely stolen.
[00:07:15]  It's all these sorts of things.
[00:07:17]  And look, we're going to go through that as we have evidence.
[00:07:19]  Here's what I do know.
[00:07:20]  What I do know is that when I recommended that people entertain voting early because Maricopa County was going to create traffic jams, we were attacked across the board by people saying, Charlie, don't tell people to vote early.
[00:07:35]  Well, there was easily 20 to 40,000 people based on any estimates of people that were disenfranchised in Republican areas on Election Day.
[00:07:46]  Andrew, your thoughts?
[00:07:48]  The thing is, you know, I'm so sympathetic to the audience because I'm saying, listen, I see how this keeps happening again and again.
[00:07:54]  We saw it with Adam Laxalt.
[00:07:56]  This all feels like a flashback to 2020.
[00:07:59]  But again, I think we have to be responsible.
[00:08:00]  We have to say, hey, we don't see it.
[00:08:02]  Once we see it, we're going to be the first to talk about it.
[00:08:06]  We're not afraid to talk about it if we see it.
[00:08:08]  But at every step of the way, we saw that, or we were told from people that we trust, people that are on our team, people that want the same things we do, that there wasn't anything untoward that they could see at this point.
[00:08:20]  Now, it boggles the mind, but we have to also be honest.
[00:08:23]  You know, in some situations, like with Lauren Bobert, she was down.
[00:08:28]  And as the vote count drags out, she then becomes, you know, she ends up in first place, right?
[00:08:34]  So it feels like a lot of significant races we lose the longer these things drag out.
[00:08:41]  And I think, you know, hopefully there will be some consensus, especially in the state of Arizona, that, you know, one of the wins, by the way, of this election cycle is that the legislature in Arizona is going to be more conservative than ever.
[00:08:51]  Now, if the legislature has to go up against Katie Hobbs as governor, not a lot's going to get done.
[00:08:57]  But hopefully there's some consensus that this is not the right way to run an election, right?
[00:09:01]  Because it inspires the mind to think about ways that this could be rigged, gamed, cheated.
[00:09:08]  Now, we're not saying that.
[00:09:10]  I'm saying that it's not a good way to run elections.
[00:09:12]  Now, California, same situation.
[00:09:14]  I mean, we're going to be counting votes in California for another three weeks.
[00:09:19]  But I can say that A, this isn't good.
[00:09:23]  B, everybody missed their marks, which is, I guess, could happen.
[00:09:28]  But it appears that the Democrats, you know, got the inside straight right here in Arizona, which is mind-boggling, especially with a candidate as special as Carrie Lake.
[00:09:39]  But again, we have to hold out hope.
[00:09:41]  I don't want to jump to any conclusions.
[00:09:42]  It's how many ballots.
[00:09:44]  Hopefully it does.
[00:09:45]  If there's 92,000 ballots left instead of 72,000 ballots, it changes everything.
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[00:10:52]  I feel the frustration.
[00:10:54]  And look, I want to apologize for what I can take credit for: I was so bullish last week on all the data in front of me.
[00:11:02]  And so, you know, some people said, oh, Charlie, you misled us.
[00:11:05]  Look, I didn't in the sense of the data was the data.
[00:11:10]  And I didn't think in any conceivable universe that Kerry Lake was going to lose Independence Day of on election day drop-offs by five to seven points.
[00:11:18]  I didn't.
[00:11:19]  And so for that, I apologize.
[00:11:22]  I'm not going to apologize for somehow saying that I had a spirit to mislead people because everything I was saying, I believe that I wasn't alone.
[00:11:30]  Rich Barris, the entire data cruncher, is in the Kerry Lake war room.
[00:11:35]  And so, look, the data was very clear at the time.
[00:11:39]  And it's not over.
[00:11:41]  It's not over.
[00:11:42]  Kerry Lake can do very well in this final drop.
[00:11:44]  We still do not know how many ballots are remaining.
[00:11:48]  The Pima drop remains this kind of, let's just say, outstanding question.
[00:11:54]  Donald Trump won that very similar drop.
[00:11:56]  Kerry Lake is beating Donald Trump in every major county from Yuma to Mojave, what Trump did in 2020.
[00:12:06]  And I understand, I mean, not only are we upset, we're shocked, we are speechless in the sense of Katie Hobbs, who did not campaign, Katie Hobbs, who very similar to Joe Biden, basically refused to debate and communicate at all, was able to somehow beat Kerry Lake in game day independence, even though Kerry Lake won game day independence of in-person election day voting.
[00:12:32]  And so, look, this thing's right on the margins.
[00:12:34]  The good news is it looks like Abe Hamaday is almost assuredly going to pull it off.
[00:12:38]  But you know what?
[00:12:38]  I'm done predicting things.
[00:12:39]  It looks like he will.
[00:12:40]  I don't know what's going to happen.
[00:12:41]  All right.
[00:12:42]  Who knows?
[00:12:44]  Abe Hamaday is down 11,328 votes.
[00:12:46]  They might find 5,000 new votes in Coconino tonight.
[00:12:50]  Charlie.
[00:12:51]  Yeah.
[00:12:52]  Let me defend the show a little bit here.
[00:12:56]  When we were doing our streams, we got together and we said, no hopium, no hopium, no hopium.
[00:13:01]  I mean, it literally, the numbers looked that good.
[00:13:05]  Originally, the numbers looked fantastic.
[00:13:08]  And then every drop, we'd be like, well, okay, what's the explanation for this?
[00:13:13]  Well, I mean, like I said, I go back to what I said before.
[00:13:16]  There's two explanations: fraud or something untoward.
[00:13:18]  We don't have any evidence of that.
[00:13:20]  I know that's what the audience and what we're hearing on Twitter are saying, but we have a responsibility to say if we've seen it or we haven't, and we haven't.
[00:13:28]  The other explanation is that the conservative movement and the RNC and leadership need to get a lot better at the process of electioneering.
[00:13:39]  And I think that's where we're going to go in this conversation.
[00:13:42]  Now, there's a difference between ballots and voters.
[00:13:46]  Voters is the old way to do things.
[00:13:48]  And we're seeing yet again that the Republican Party, and I think you have to start at leadership, was caught flat-footed when it came to learning how to game the system the way the Democrats have.
[00:14:02]  Old school is working on messaging, debates, getting out your message.
[00:14:07]  New school is electioneering, the mechanics of collecting ballots and getting out the vote, curing ballots.
[00:14:13]  That's why something we have to talk about on the show is everybody has to go cure their ballot.
[00:14:17]  If tonight's drop is really good, but not good enough, the difference could be made up in curing ballots.
[00:14:23]  So you have to go, you can follow it on Charlie's Twitter.
[00:14:27]  There are posts about how to cure your ballots.
[00:14:29]  So if you're listening in anywhere in Arizona, you need to get on the ballot curing process.
[00:14:35]  And those, and we could bring up the website here.
[00:14:38]  But the bottom line is: the polling showed carry ahead.
[00:14:42]  A lot of the polling showed Blake tied or one point ahead.

=== Early Voting Strategy Fail (15:19) ===

[00:14:46]  Some had him behind.
[00:14:47]  We were never sure about Blake.
[00:14:48]  We were hoping for a great surge day of.
[00:14:51]  But to your credit, I also want to say you warned about traffic jams.
[00:14:55]  One of our most successful episodes in the last couple of weeks was you warning about traffic jams.
[00:14:59]  Well, I think you said clips there, right?
[00:15:02]  Yeah, we may do.
[00:15:04]  Hold on one sec.
[00:15:05]  Yeah, we'll get that.
[00:15:07]  But my point is, is that we have to re discuss, re-litigate as a movement election day versus early voting.
[00:15:16]  I am now very much in the camp, and I wasn't before, admittedly.
[00:15:20]  So if I can take responsibility for anything, that would be it.
[00:15:23]  But I'm very much in the camp that we need to get real good at early voting as a movement.
[00:15:28]  Now, I know there's concerns about custody and chain of custody and all this stuff.
[00:15:33]  Well, guess what?
[00:15:33]  Florida does it.
[00:15:35]  And there's a really good financial reason to do it because you know who's off the chessboard and then you can deploy your capital more efficiently to get the votes remaining on the chessboard.
[00:15:45]  It's just in the ballot box.
[00:15:47]  Yeah, when I talked about looming traffic jams, I admitted I was a game day voter, but I was willing to stand through the lines.
[00:15:53]  And then when I went to go vote in my precinct, it was a complete catastrophe.
[00:15:56]  Unfortunately, all of that did come to fruition.
[00:15:59]  It was traffic jams.
[00:16:00]  It was major messes.
[00:16:02]  And it makes you wonder if you would have voted in person on Election Day, would that have been any different?
[00:16:12]  Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
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[00:17:15]  True the vote, Greg Phillips and Katherine Ingelbrecht are receiving thousands of calls of people that tried to vote in Arizona on Election Day and were turned away.
[00:17:24]  In fact, we know of many people that have emailed us freedom at charliekirk.com that went to go vote and they were told by the election workers, go to another location, just go find another location.
[00:17:34]  And there's only 223 of those in Maricopa County.
[00:17:38]  And remember, 70 of them, Charlie, were experiencing difficulties.
[00:17:43]  Yep.
[00:17:43]  So that much we know is that this was voter suppression either by design or by accident or incompetence or whatever.
[00:17:50]  But regardless, it's unacceptable.
[00:17:52]  That much is absolutely, absolutely true.
[00:17:54]  And if this race comes down to a couple of thousand votes, one way or the other, that's something that we can point our finger to instantly and say whatever words you want to attach to that, that's wrong and it can happen.
[00:18:08]  And I think there's going to be lawsuits galore on the back of this, as there should be, right?
[00:18:12]  And I think we're all sick of seeing people like Bill Gates go on TV and sort of in his nasally voice defend the process.
[00:18:19]  No, you can't defend what happened on Election Day.
[00:18:22]  You absolutely, it's indefensible what happened in Maricopa County.
[00:18:25]  And the people of Arizona have a right to be pissed off.
[00:18:27]  And actually the people of the country, everybody's eyes are on Maricopa County and rightly so.
[00:18:32]  Yeah, and it's beyond high stakes in more ways than one.
[00:18:37]  And so it's illegal, technically illegal, to ballot harvest in Arizona.
[00:18:43]  However, there's no way that they're getting some of these numbers days before the election in Tempe and these other areas without some form of Democrat ballot harvesting operation going on there.
[00:18:55]  Now, the way forward is for Carrie Lake to win 65 to 67% of the remaining vote tonight.
[00:19:09]  Now, it's not impossible, but based on last evening, it's going to be very difficult.
[00:19:16]  So there's a transmission report that shows that the likely remaining votes, the composition of them in Maricopa County are about 46% Republican, 46% Republican.
[00:19:29]  Now, if you look at that and if they kind of vote as characteristic as they are, then there is a very good chance that that's basically her baseline.
[00:19:40]  Now, if that means that Carrie Lake is going to have to win independence, probably 20 to 19.
[00:19:45]  Now, she did that in person on election day.
[00:19:48]  So it's not as if she hasn't done that.
[00:19:49]  This is the same type of voter.
[00:19:51]  So the remaining votes, this is an approximation.
[00:19:53]  There's 72,277, but then there's another 20,000 that we really don't know about in Maricopa.
[00:19:58]  Those could be really good for us or not so good for us.
[00:20:00]  72,277, 24% of them are Democrats.
[00:20:04]  46% of them are Republican and 29% of them are Independent.
[00:20:08]  Now, there is a chance that that will go over the top for Kerry Lake and that they've been holding back these ballots this entire time.
[00:20:18]  There is a chance.
[00:20:21]  Now, some people say, Charlie, you know, a lot of people are emailing us, Charlie, it's about the shenanigans and they're breaking the rules.
[00:20:27]  Look, I'm a total open mind about all of that.
[00:20:30]  I'm trying to focus on what we can do right now.
[00:20:33]  We have poll watchers, we have observers, and we need to go start to go try and cure ballots.
[00:20:37]  Curing ballots is something that Democrats have been doing for some time.
[00:20:42]  Curing ballots is something that people that have been doing in the Democrat Party for quite a while.
[00:20:49]  And we have to go out of our way now to go cure ballots, meaning that there's at least 3,000 to 4,000 Republican ballots right now, and we have till Wednesday to cure them.
[00:20:58]  And that very well might help Kerry Lake close the margin.
[00:21:01]  And then we're still waiting for this Pima drop as well.
[00:21:03]  But Andrew, can you talk just a little bit about kind of the broader picture here?
[00:21:09]  I mean, I know we're getting a lot of incoming from people and people are really fired up.
[00:21:13]  And some people say, I'm never voting again.
[00:21:14]  I'm done.
[00:21:15]  I'm terrible.
[00:21:16]  Charlie, I knew this was going to happen.
[00:21:18]  Look, if you want to blame me for something, blame me for actually believing that, you know, something like this could actually end up happening.
[00:21:28]  Meaning, like I was trying to resist being just automatically cynical all the time.
[00:21:32]  Andrew, your thoughts?
[00:21:34]  Yeah, I mean, it's funny.
[00:21:36]  I mean, you say one thing like there's you don't, you don't have evidence of the fraud right now, right?
[00:21:42]  We just don't, and everybody's upset.
[00:21:45]  So sorry.
[00:21:46]  I mean, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but that's, that's the fact.
[00:21:49]  Yeah, but I want to be clear, though, because Andrew, our audience hears that and they say, well, what about the machines that went down?
[00:21:54]  So that's legit, right?
[00:21:55]  Or have no, that's legit.
[00:21:57]  The ballots are legit.
[00:21:58]  So I just want to make sure we get our language precise, right?
[00:22:00]  Absolutely.
[00:22:01]  So there was disenfranchisement.
[00:22:03]  I believe there was intentional, I think intentional malfeasance, not just traffic jams, not just all this other stuff.
[00:22:10]  But we broadcasted to them, which was my big fear, that on game day, there were going to be issues.
[00:22:17]  Now, some people say, Charlie, enough of the I told you so stuff.
[00:22:20]  The only reason I'm doing this is because I think it's a learning lesson because I was attacked so severely for even saying this, for saying that there might be some issues on game day.
[00:22:31]  People said, oh, no, game day is the only way to vote.
[00:22:33]  I agree.
[00:22:33]  I voted on game day.
[00:22:35]  So what's that tape that we have, Andrew?
[00:22:37]  Do we have the tape?
[00:22:38]  I think it's 278.
[00:22:39]  Let's play that tape.
[00:22:40]  That there very well might be traffic jams tomorrow.
[00:22:42]  They might run out of ink.
[00:22:43]  They might run out of paper.
[00:22:44]  You have to be ready to wait many, many hours.
[00:22:46]  And Blake, you know, if that's the case, that means you're doing very, very well.
[00:22:50]  You know, if there all of a sudden are lines and lines and lines.
[00:22:53]  And, you know, just from an analysis, there could be anywhere between 400 to 600,000 same-day voters in Arizona tomorrow, which would absolutely just crush the algorithm, overwhelm the system.
[00:23:03]  And then the next one we have, let's play cut 279.
[00:23:06]  But to the broader population, people that are generally Republican, generally conservative, I am not at all saying go turn in your mail and ballot or go send in your ballot in the Dropbox.
[00:23:20]  Instead, you could go and vote in person early and you could track whether or not your vote is actually counted.
[00:23:30]  Now, I know a lot of you say, Charlie, I don't trust it that way.
[00:23:32]  I fully support an election day surge.
[00:23:34]  I think an election day surge is awesome.
[00:23:36]  But here's the one logical thing I want to walk through.
[00:23:40]  If you forget to vote early, you can always still vote on election day.
[00:23:44]  If you get distracted on election day, that's it.
[00:23:47]  It's too late.
[00:23:48]  And unfortunately, Andrew, what are the estimates?
[00:23:50]  Anywhere between 30 to 40,000 low propensity Republicans were turned away at the polls.
[00:23:54]  Is that right?
[00:23:55]  Yeah, we got some really incredible exit polling from Rich Barris that suggests that it was over 30% of election day voters experienced issues.
[00:24:05]  I think the number was like 37%.
[00:24:07]  And we know that those numbers skew heavily Republican.
[00:24:10]  And to your point on those clips, I mean, those are from like two weeks ago.
[00:24:13]  Yep.
[00:24:14]  That last clip that you played.
[00:24:15]  I mean, we were looking at this and saying, you know, Houston, we might have a problem, Maricopa County.
[00:24:20]  Well, yeah, I mean, the equivalent would be it's fourth and one and you got to score a touchdown.
[00:24:24]  And we told the defense what play we're running.
[00:24:27]  Yep.
[00:24:27]  Right.
[00:24:27]  I mean, we told, it's not that you don't have a chance to still do it if they know it's coming, right?
[00:24:32]  But we basically said, yeah, we're going to, we're going to do a quarterback sneak.
[00:24:36]  Okay, well, then they're going to go double pincer with nose tackles right on the center and put their linebackers.
[00:24:41]  The equivalent of the football analogy is we told them, hey, guys, our path to victory is everyone showing up on election day.
[00:24:47]  And so then all of a sudden.
[00:24:50]  And to that point, if more of our voters got out early, we would have been able to deploy capital, resources, and ground game to narrow in on the votes that were still on the board to get them out to the polls, right?
[00:25:01]  I mean, that's the model.
[00:25:04]  And again, everybody looks to Florida as the model.
[00:25:07]  Well, guess what, folks?
[00:25:08]  Florida has early voting.
[00:25:10]  You can vote, but what they personally, that's right.
[00:25:13]  Yeah, they cut off the window so that the tabulators have chances to have a chance to verify the votes and to count the votes on election day.
[00:25:20]  So we all look to Florida and say, well, they got 99% of their vote in on election day.
[00:25:24]  Well, why?
[00:25:24]  Because they shorten the windows when you can do it, and then they tabulate in the meantime so that on election day, they're able to count all election day ballots and they have an answer.
[00:25:34]  So you can do it.
[00:25:36]  You can do it responsibly and you can do it.
[00:25:38]  And guess what?
[00:25:38]  The old model for Republicans was early voting.
[00:25:43]  This is why Arizona, this is the untold story, why Arizona has early voting to the extent that they do was because the McCainites and the flakes of the world knew that old people in Arizona like to vote early, right?
[00:25:56]  So they used to clean up in that before what happened in 2020.
[00:26:00]  So my point is, do I like it?
[00:26:03]  No, I don't like the DH in the National League.
[00:26:06]  But guess what?
[00:26:07]  It's here, and it doesn't mean I'm going to keep trotting out my pitcher.
[00:26:10]  Okay.
[00:26:11]  Like that doesn't help me win games.
[00:26:13]  I have to get with the current games and the current rules that we have.
[00:26:18]  And we have to play those to the best of our advantage.
[00:26:20]  Now, you know, it's one thing if Kerry wins and we have a very conservative legislature in Arizona, we can reform all this.
[00:26:28]  We can go one day election day voting all day long.
[00:26:31]  And I would support that.
[00:26:32]  Obviously, I would love that.
[00:26:33]  I want to go one person, one ballot election day.
[00:26:36]  That's ideal.
[00:26:37]  But we don't play in the world of ideals and fantasy lands.
[00:26:40]  We play in the real world.
[00:26:42]  And guess what?
[00:26:43]  The Democrats have perfected this process and they know how to get out the votes.
[00:26:48]  They know how to get them out early and they know how to deploy capital in a very precise way once those ballots are in and they can focus their attention on what's remaining.
[00:26:57]  And that is one of the big lessons for this.
[00:26:59]  And it's not just in Arizona.
[00:27:01]  It's in Michigan.
[00:27:03]  It's in Pennsylvania.
[00:27:04]  It's in Georgia.
[00:27:06]  This is highly sophisticated stuff.
[00:27:08]  And that's where we need to go as a conservative party until we have the power to reform these processes.
[00:27:15]  Yeah.
[00:27:15]  And I mean, look, the idea of just kind of hoping everyone's going to show up on game day, we broadcasted our big play.
[00:27:22]  And so, you know, look, the Democrats, they take advantage of voting month.
[00:27:27]  They did that in Nevada.
[00:27:28]  They did that in Pennsylvania.
[00:27:30]  And you might say, oh, Charlie, that means that there's fraud and all that.
[00:27:33]  Okay, well, then what are we going to do about it?
[00:27:35]  Because now we're going to be in the, for example, in Nevada, we don't have political power.
[00:27:40]  And so we have a governor, but not alone.
[00:27:42]  So are you just going to, we're just going to keep on complaining about it year after year after year?
[00:27:46]  No.
[00:27:47]  I mean, I said this on television this weekend, and I'm going to say it again.
[00:27:51]  I do think it's time that for low-propensity Republican voters that we start to embrace voting early, that voting early in person is secure.
[00:28:01]  In fact, Republicans beat Democrats in Florida.
[00:28:04]  And so here's the thing, is that in Florida, in retirement communities especially, Republicans clean up in early voting.
[00:28:13]  Senior citizens get very worried about lines.
[00:28:16]  They get worried, and they should, by the way, they might have, you know, difficulty standing for hours on end.
[00:28:21]  So early voting is more secure.
[00:28:23]  It gives people peace of mind.
[00:28:25]  And basically what ended up happening, especially in Sun City and Gilbert and Scottsdale, where there is a significant 65-plus population that is, you know, very much, you know, Kerry Lake's backbone is that all of a sudden people were pulling into the parking lot and the lines were out the door.
[00:28:44]  And I think it's because they knew that we were going to try to show up on election day and overwhelm the system.
[00:28:52]  And one out of five of precincts, one out of five of precincts completely and totally went down.
[00:29:00]  But here's the good news, everybody, is that we did our job in Arizona Congressional District 1.
[00:29:05]  David Schweikert has won, which means that we are probably almost certainly going to take the House of Representatives.
[00:29:10]  That's awesome news, everybody, that that was a little bit in jeopardy like the last couple of days.
[00:29:15]  There's all these media narratives.
[00:29:17]  But Arizona won.
[00:29:18]  Now, if you really want to try to get me confused and just look at the data and just have me just kind of just shrug my shoulders and I'm waiting for an explanation, how is it that David Schweikert, who definitely received a lot of negative press in the last couple of years, is beating Kerry Lake in Scottsdale?
[00:29:39]  So, Andrew, I do want to try to broaden this a little bit and talk about that there seems to be in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada that a late break, and the exit polls show this, and even conservatives show there was a late break of independence away from Republicans.

=== Late Breaks in Four States (05:06) ===

[00:30:05]  We thought it would be the opposite.
[00:30:07]  My working theory is that there was a lot of ballot harvesting.
[00:30:11]  There was the use of mail and voting.
[00:30:13]  There was all this stuff, this infrastructure that COVID brought that we didn't use at all.
[00:30:19]  However, Andrew, I do want to explore this idea that in my personal opinion, I think Democrats were micro-targeting messaging about abortion, about things being too extreme, about the extreme social policy.
[00:30:33]  And I think they saw in early October, I think they kind of smelled blood in the water.
[00:30:39]  And we know we were outspent.
[00:30:41]  In fact, Kerry Lake was outspent.
[00:30:42]  Blake Masters is outspent.
[00:30:43]  Adam Laxalt was outspoken.
[00:30:45]  Herschel Walker was outspent.
[00:30:46]  We were outspent two to one to three to one.
[00:30:48]  And that's not going to change.
[00:30:50]  Now, a lot of money went to Donald Trump's PAC, right?
[00:30:52]  And Donald Trump has $100 million in his super PAC that was not spent on this election.
[00:30:57]  I think he spent like $3 million, right?
[00:31:00]  So that's $100 million that might have been in this election that was not spent.
[00:31:06]  But there was a lot of, you know, question, this cycle of why are we getting outspent so much money?
[00:31:11]  Well, the issue with being the party of the muscular class and also not having the unions is you're going to have a massive financial deficit.
[00:31:19]  So we get the muscular class, but we don't even get the union support because of it.
[00:31:22]  The Democrats still get supported by AFSCAMI and SCIU and the oligarchs.
[00:31:27]  Andrew, do you think there might have been some messaging losses or do you think it was all machinery?
[00:31:34]  What are your thoughts?
[00:31:36]  Yeah, I put out a tweet on this actually that went kind of viral.
[00:31:40]  I think that we won on the whole on messaging.
[00:31:44]  I really do.
[00:31:45]  I think inflation, crime, the border, a lot of these culture war issues that we feel so passionate about, the trans issue.
[00:31:54]  I absolutely think we won on schools, school boards.
[00:31:57]  We had some big wins across the country at a local level.
[00:32:01]  But, you know, I was trying to tell people this earlier.
[00:32:05]  People kind of didn't take it seriously.
[00:32:06]  So maybe I didn't zero in on it enough.
[00:32:08]  But I will tell you, I've heard countless times from friends of my wife, for example, that they were convinced that Republicans wanted to criminalize miscarriages and they wanted to criminalize ectopic pregnancies and throw women in jail for such things.
[00:32:27]  Now, when we look at what happened with young single women, they apparently had the largest lurch left in a generation, which leads me to believe that the abortion issue certainly had a massive impact.
[00:32:43]  And now, I think a lot of people, you know, we think like four out of four Republican voters.
[00:32:48]  I mean, we are going to show up.
[00:32:49]  We are going to vote.
[00:32:50]  We're going to vote down the line.
[00:32:52]  But not everybody's like that.
[00:32:54]  We've got to put ourselves in the position of low agency voters.
[00:32:57]  Those people that may come out that, you know, it's funny, on election day, I was getting, I've caught an Uber to the studio and I sat in the car.
[00:33:06]  The guy was like, yeah, I don't know if I'm going to go.
[00:33:08]  I don't know.
[00:33:09]  I got stuff to do.
[00:33:10]  Yep.
[00:33:10]  That's the kind of people that we need to talk to.
[00:33:12]  I convinced that guy to go out and vote for Kerry Lake, but he had to like figure it out and his time and all that.
[00:33:18]  I mean, who knows if he actually did, right?
[00:33:19]  But he, he, you know, in the process of one car ride, I convinced that guy.
[00:33:23]  But that's, that's a lot of the electorate.
[00:33:26]  And the Democrats have, have come, uh, have come to grips with that and they, they've gotten really into it.
[00:33:30]  So I think abortion was big.
[00:33:32]  And I think, you know, if you look back at all the messaging about how Republicans are fascist, they're anti-democracy, democracy, democracy's on the ballot.
[00:33:41]  I mean, they were all singing from that same song sheet.
[00:33:44]  Obama.
[00:33:45]  What was the Republican message?
[00:33:46]  I mean, I think, you know, Tucker, Bannon, our program, I think we were developing a really good message of parents' rights and return to normalcy and lower gas prices.
[00:33:56]  And, but I don't think Republican candidates were kind of singing off that song sheet.
[00:34:00]  You know who I think did?
[00:34:01]  I think Ron Johnson did.
[00:34:03]  I think Jason Dance did.
[00:34:05]  Yeah, Lee Zeldin, who actually got us the House of Representatives, he did.
[00:34:10]  Crime, crime, crime, sanity, sanity, sanity.
[00:34:13]  Yeah, I mean, it's...
[00:34:14]  So, but I mean, look, I could say this just from my wife's friend circle and from many others.
[00:34:19]  I mean, I could, we kind of went through the list.
[00:34:22]  We know of at least 50 to 60 young women that do not like Democrats that voted Democrat this cycle because of what they call pro-life extremism.
[00:34:30]  And we warned about this because of Lindsey Graham's sabotage campaign where Lindsey Graham comes out of left field and starts talking about a federal abortion ban, giving them the perfect little soundbite that this is not a state's issue, but this is a federal issue.
[00:34:45]  I believe at my core, and no one will be able to convince me otherwise, that Lindsey Graham was trying to sabotage the candidacy of Blake Masters and many other people.
[00:34:57]  Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
[00:34:59]  Email me your thoughts as alwaysfreedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:35:02]  Thank you so much for listening.
[00:35:03]  God bless.
[00:35:07]  For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk dot com.