The Charlie Kirk Show - The Aftermath with Rich Baris, Benny Johnson, and Jack Posobiec
Aired: 2022-11-10
Duration: 02:14:35


=== Arizona Shocks The World (15:00) ===

[00:00:00]  Charlie, things are not as bad.
[00:00:02]  No, I mean they're not.
[00:00:03]  Stop listening to the Navy.
[00:00:04]  First of all, there's some great wins and things that we got to worry about, things that we got to talk about.
[00:00:10]  But look, Arizona is going to shock the world.
[00:00:12]  Kerry Lake's going to be governor of Arizona.
[00:00:14]  Blake Masters is in a good spot.
[00:00:15]  We're going to talk about that.
[00:00:16]  JD Vance won last night.
[00:00:17]  Ron Johnson won.
[00:00:18]  Ted Budd won.
[00:00:19]  Beto's last.
[00:00:19]  Pennsylvania was a swing and a miss, no doubt.
[00:00:21]  Pennsylvania was a huge swing and a miss.
[00:00:23]  And we're going to go through that and we're going to talk about that.
[00:00:27]  And so, look, the buried lead is the Sun Belt did amazing.
[00:00:31]  Florida crushed.
[00:00:32]  I mean, Texas crushed.
[00:00:34]  Now, there were some congressional races where we should have done a lot better in Texas, a lot better.
[00:00:37]  We only got one of the three Latinas in.
[00:00:39]  Yep.
[00:00:40]  Nevada is running away with it.
[00:00:42]  My home state?
[00:00:43]  I told you.
[00:00:44]  I've been telling you.
[00:00:45]  That's right.
[00:00:45]  And then Arizona, I mean, look, once it's all said and done, the story of the 2022 midterms is, oh, the Sun Belt, which is people lovers of freedom, refugees from these blue states, are trending in a very conservative direction.
[00:00:58]  Midwest has got some work to do.
[00:01:01]  I mean, Republicans can still win in the industrial Midwest, Ron Johnson, JD Vance, but there were some swings and misses last night, no doubt.
[00:01:09]  And by the way, it looks like the Republicans will take the House by a five or 10 seat majority, somewhere between there.
[00:01:14]  We'll see if that's a good thing or not.
[00:01:16]  I think we're going to still take the Senate.
[00:01:17]  We're going to go through race by race.
[00:01:18]  We're going to talk about it.
[00:01:19]  We're going to go through in great detail about Arizona as well.
[00:01:21]  Email us your thoughts.
[00:01:22]  As always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:01:24]  We went to bed last night at 3.30 in the morning, and here we are.
[00:01:26]  No, we were texting at 4.5.
[00:01:29]  You went to bed at 5.
[00:01:30]  Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:01:33]  And we're about to get started for a very important story.
[00:01:36]  Important show.
[00:01:36]  We'll be right back.
[00:01:37]  Hello, everybody.
[00:01:38]  Charlie Kirk here, radio stations across the country.
[00:01:40]  It is the day after.
[00:01:41]  Well, it's still the same day we stopped streaming, actually.
[00:01:43]  Andrew and Tyler are here.
[00:01:44]  How are we doing, guys?
[00:01:46]  Feeling good, actually, surprisingly.
[00:01:49]  The night was a roller coaster.
[00:01:51]  I think we can all agree on that.
[00:01:53]  We came in with probably way too high of expectations about how the night was going to go.
[00:01:58]  And Florida got us off with a jolt.
[00:02:01]  We were feeling really good.
[00:02:02]  Turns out Florida is a bit of an anomaly.
[00:02:05]  And then we kind of crashed.
[00:02:07]  And then as Nevada and Arizona started rolling in, we caught our momentum again.
[00:02:13]  And so, I mean, yeah, to your point, Florida looked great.
[00:02:17]  Texas looked great.
[00:02:18]  DeSantis won by 20 points.
[00:02:19]  I mean, yeah, I mean, that's insane.
[00:02:21]  I mean, this is, to put it in perspective, it was a blowout to win Florida by 100,000 votes, 50,000 votes.
[00:02:27]  And now DeSantis is winning by 20 points.
[00:02:31]  That state has completely transformed.
[00:02:33]  It's a whole different state than it was before.
[00:02:35]  Rubio, I think, won by 16, 17 points.
[00:02:39]  No, did you give you an idea?
[00:02:40]  DeSantis won by 1.5 million.
[00:02:42]  1.5 million.
[00:02:44]  That is a popular candidate.
[00:02:45]  And we're going to get into how that's going to affect the future debate within the Republican Party later in the show.
[00:02:51]  But what was surprising was that, you know, yeah, you've got a lot of people moving to Vegas.
[00:02:55]  You've got a lot of people moving to...
[00:02:57]  And by the way, Californians moving to Nevada just for taxes alone.
[00:03:01]  Big, big factor.
[00:03:02]  I think a lot of snowbirds moving to Arizona.
[00:03:05]  A lot of New Yorkers, Pennsylvanians moving to...
[00:03:09]  I mean, the question is, did Pennsylvania lose the votes it needed to get Oz over the finish line to Florida?
[00:03:16]  Did New York lose the voters it needed to get Zeldon over the finish line?
[00:03:20]  Did they move to Florida as well and other states?
[00:03:23]  People's modeling was way off in some of these states.
[00:03:25]  Definitely a lot of blue state drainage and leakage.
[00:03:27]  And look, I mean, here's the thing is that Florida, we are overperforming.
[00:03:31]  We do not know where we're at in Arizona.
[00:03:32]  I think when all is said and done, Kerry Lake is going to be the darling of the midterms that potentially got a U.S. Senator elected and saved an entire state from going into oblivion.
[00:03:40]  Kerry Lake will win, by the way.
[00:03:41]  We're getting a lot of questions.
[00:03:42]  Charlie, how is Kerry Lake?
[00:03:43]  Tyler, how rock solid is Kerry Lake?
[00:03:45]  I talked to Governor Lake this morning.
[00:03:48]  Governor elect.
[00:03:49]  Yeah.
[00:03:50]  Yeah, Governor elect, Governor Lake.
[00:03:51]  We're just calling her Governor Lake.
[00:03:53]  Talk to her.
[00:03:54]  She is in high spirits because she knows today is the day that she's going to take the lead.
[00:03:59]  And not lose it again.
[00:04:01]  And that's what everything is trending towards right now.
[00:04:04]  It's just a matter of time at this point.
[00:04:07]  The remaining ballots that are out there that are to be counted are all super heavy favorable, Carrie Lake.
[00:04:15]  And the reason for that is because these are all late drop-offs or day of drop-off ballots.
[00:04:21]  And then there's a number of ballots also that we talked about.
[00:04:24]  We've been talking about the Tray 3 or Box 3, Door 3.
[00:04:29]  By the way, we got tagged on Twitter.
[00:04:32]  I went back through and looked at your Twitter last night.
[00:04:34]  You got tagged on the box 3 tweet, which is hilarious.
[00:04:37]  And I totally stand by what you said, by the way.
[00:04:40]  The instructions were box three is not as good as getting your ballot counted that day.
[00:04:46]  That's right.
[00:04:46]  That's right.
[00:04:47]  But a lot of people were forced to do, and those haven't been counted.
[00:04:49]  So, Tyler, there could be anywhere between half a million to 900,000 ballots to be counted in the market.
[00:04:54]  To put that into the idea of percentages, like 20% or more of the ballots remaining in Arizona.
[00:05:00]  So if you see people tweet out, there was a he him that posted today, and I called him out today for posting that there was like 97% of all the ballots have been counted in Arizona.
[00:05:10]  That's precincts.
[00:05:11]  Precincts.
[00:05:12]  Yeah, but we don't even count by precincts.
[00:05:14]  That's that's by precinct.
[00:05:17]  We don't even have like entire counties' results in from last night.
[00:05:20]  Like, I mean, guys, this is we are a long way away here.
[00:05:24]  At minimum, we have 20% of our ballots still not counted.
[00:05:27]  Maximally, it could be upwards of 30%.
[00:05:29]  Let me tell you what my gut number is.
[00:05:30]  Let me.
[00:05:31]  The raw numbers is like what you said.
[00:05:33]  It could be anywhere from a half million votes, I think, maybe a little bit less than that to 900,000 votes.
[00:05:39]  Can I make a note on that?
[00:05:40]  It's probably closer to like 700,000.
[00:05:42]  Let's look at.
[00:05:43]  So, okay, just so we're clear: Katie Hobbs and Carrie Lake right now, there's a delta of about 12,000 votes, okay?
[00:05:49]  Effectively.
[00:05:49]  So tied.
[00:05:50]  Yeah, so Kerry Lake is down 12,000 votes.
[00:05:52]  That's with only 1.
[00:05:56]  Let's see, 1.8 million ballots counted.
[00:06:00]  In 2018, another midterm cycle, there was 2.32 million votes, right?
[00:06:07]  That's at least 526,000 votes outstanding.
[00:06:12]  We're going to have higher turnout than 18.
[00:06:13]  I was going to say, and the expectation is by all the anecdotal evidence, all of the modeling.
[00:06:19]  We only brought an extra 100,000.
[00:06:21]  We have breaking news here.
[00:06:22]  Yes.
[00:06:23]  So breaking news is we have another 20,000 or so door three, planet three, box three.
[00:06:34]  Day of ballots still yet to be counted in Maricopa County.
[00:06:38]  Yeah, she won close to 70% of those.
[00:06:41]  So that alone.
[00:06:43]  We'll put her in the lead.
[00:06:44]  When does that drop?
[00:06:45]  Is that now?
[00:06:46]  By tomorrow, they said.
[00:06:47]  Oh, my God.
[00:06:48]  Because we've tabulated it.
[00:06:49]  I don't know what's going to happen.
[00:06:49]  So how do you know the.
[00:06:50]  Oh, there's 20,000 left in door three.
[00:06:53]  Yes, it's slightly less than that.
[00:06:55]  We've been wondering how many.
[00:06:57]  So that alone should put Carrie in the lead.
[00:06:59]  And then on top of that, we just got their estimating 400,000 ballots out of Maricopa County that were dropped.
[00:07:06]  Whoa.
[00:07:08]  What?
[00:07:09]  That's big.
[00:07:10]  Give me one second here.
[00:07:11]  What?
[00:07:11]  Hey, do you hear that?
[00:07:12]  Chuck U. Schumer?
[00:07:13]  Hold on.
[00:07:14]  Can someone call Chuck Schumer's office?
[00:07:17]  400,000 drops?
[00:07:19]  I'm waiting for the verification.
[00:07:21]  Tyler, that lines up with my anecdotal that I was saying yesterday.
[00:07:24]  That's really high.
[00:07:24]  It seems really high.
[00:07:26]  I don't want to get too excited here.
[00:07:28]  That's almost like how good is it?
[00:07:29]  I don't want to get too much.
[00:07:30]  I don't want to get too excited here.
[00:07:31]  Democrats started.
[00:07:34]  So one of our listeners said, How can you know how many ballots there are?
[00:07:37]  But not just count them.
[00:07:41]  So, what this might be, and Charlie, and this is what I think, there is a number of, I think there was, remember I told you guys last night on the stream, I think there was about 100 to 150,000 ballots that were dropped off like the day before.
[00:07:53]  So we're talking Monday drops that weren't counted yet.
[00:07:57]  So those ballots, I think, are included as part of that 400K that have yet to be.
[00:08:01]  So if that's the case, by the way, it was closer to 250,000, which is what we needed minimally, I think, to be successful on day of.
[00:08:09]  That makes perfect sense.
[00:08:10]  And that's part of the reason why we had that 400K.
[00:08:12]  That would be late early.
[00:08:13]  But that's not statewide, right?
[00:08:14]  That's not statewide.
[00:08:15]  That's just Maricopa.
[00:08:17]  So it looks like it sounds like they had 200.
[00:08:19]  Okay, so I'm just confirming here so we don't want to get misinformation out there.
[00:08:24]  So Maricopa County is saying 200,000 drop-offs yesterday plus more from Monday.
[00:08:32]  Okay.
[00:08:32]  Yeah.
[00:08:33]  So, all right.
[00:08:35]  Just so we're clear, the 20,000 box three, if that breaks 70, 30, that gives Carrie another 8,000 votes.
[00:08:43]  Carrie's governor.
[00:08:43]  That's over.
[00:08:44]  That gives her another 8.
[00:08:45]  So she's still technically...
[00:08:47]  I mean, it doesn't give her 8.
[00:08:49]  It actually advances or it gets her closer by 8.
[00:08:51]  How many on Monday, Tyler, do we think?
[00:08:54]  I'm just trying to get straight answers.
[00:08:56]  I'm going to the top.
[00:08:57]  I'm going to the top here, and we're going to get the straight answer here.
[00:09:00]  So anyways, box three will get Carrie within about, it will get her within about 4,000 votes.
[00:09:08]  So she's not going to be ahead from box three.
[00:09:10]  I just do the math, but she'll be within 4,000.
[00:09:12]  Yeah, but that doesn't count Mojave and Nava Pie.
[00:09:14]  And by the way, let me just give you another piece of data here.
[00:09:17]  Tyler, do you know that right now, currently, they say Blake Masters is down 28 points in Pima?
[00:09:22]  Yeah, not going to happen.
[00:09:23]  Pima hasn't counted their election day votes yet.
[00:09:26]  Yeah.
[00:09:27]  Total Maricopa County right now is.
[00:09:34]  I'm sorry.
[00:09:34]  Hang on here.
[00:09:35]  Just do the numbers.
[00:09:36]  Do a tabulation for the day.
[00:09:38]  We estimate more than 400.
[00:09:39]  Okay, Maricopa County just put this out.
[00:09:40]  This was up against the break.
[00:09:43]  We estimate more than 400K ballots left to count in Maricopa County.
[00:09:46]  275,000 early ballots on Election Day.
[00:09:50]  You know, that number was 170 in 2020.
[00:09:53]  So they took forever to count that 2020.
[00:09:56]  So expect to buckle up.
[00:09:57]  This is why they're saying Thanksgiving now is because they took so freaking long last year.
[00:10:00]  Okay, but Charlie, we've got to make sense of this.
[00:10:01]  We have 30 seconds.
[00:10:02]  We'll come back.
[00:10:03]  We'll come back.
[00:10:04]  This is too much to go.
[00:10:05]  We'll figure it out in the break.
[00:10:06]  Okay, all right.
[00:10:06]  Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:10:08]  The bottom line is there's so many votes up and carries in.
[00:10:12]  There's no way Carrie is in.
[00:10:13]  Blake has a path with those numbers.
[00:10:14]  He has a path.
[00:10:14]  Blake has a path for sure.
[00:10:16]  Subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast, please, by taking out your podcast app and typing in Charlie Kirk Show.
[00:10:21]  I want to tell you guys about relieffactor.com, 100% drug-free relief factor, knee pain, back pain, joint pain, elbow pain.
[00:10:26]  There's all sorts of different types of pain you might be experiencing.
[00:10:29]  We have been streaming basically non-stop here.
[00:10:31]  I think like 20 out of the last 24 hours, Andrew, it's been ridiculous.
[00:10:35]  And sometimes you need some relief factor, and also you might need some relief factor sleep to allow you guys to help.
[00:10:40]  I took some.
[00:10:40]  Yeah.
[00:10:41]  Well, I mean, I feel great.
[00:10:42]  I feel great.
[00:10:43]  Just a little cough, maybe?
[00:10:45]  Just a little bit.
[00:10:45]  Okay.
[00:10:46]  But that has nothing to do with relief factor.
[00:10:47]  Yeah, I think that's a little bit of a different category.
[00:10:50]  All sorts of different types of pain that you might be plagued by, and relief factor could help you out of that pain.
[00:10:54]  So check it out right now at relieffactor.com.
[00:10:56]  That is relief factor.com.
[00:10:58]  I know a lot of people that ask me, Charlie, how do I get out of pain?
[00:11:01]  And I tell them relief factor.com.
[00:11:04]  Email us freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.
[00:11:08]  A lot of different data coming out in Arizona right now, and we're trying to make sense of all of it as the media is getting very nervous.
[00:11:16]  You know, the New York Times pulled their Mark Kelly likely to win thing because they're very worried that something might be happening.
[00:11:24]  Tyler, 20 seconds.
[00:11:25]  What's up?
[00:11:25]  Yeah, I mean, we're looking at all together here, I mean, hundreds.
[00:11:29]  It's over 400,000 ballots left to count in Maricopa County, and most of them seem to be good because a vast majority of those were from Election Day.
[00:11:37]  Yeah, so that means that there's at least 650,000 votes statewide left to count because Pima hasn't done their Election Day votes.
[00:11:42]  If we're 400,000 in Maricopa County, we are at least 700.
[00:11:47]  That's very good.
[00:11:48]  I mean, that's phenomenal news for Carrie.
[00:11:49]  Baseline.
[00:11:50]  And that's very good news for Blake.
[00:11:52]  Blake's margin.
[00:11:53]  Blake can now, he has some room.
[00:11:56]  The sunbelt rises here in Arizona.
[00:11:58]  The red wave.
[00:11:59]  I think it might have happened here in the desert.
[00:12:01]  We'll see.
[00:12:01]  We'll be right back.
[00:12:02]  Welcome back.
[00:12:03]  No, we are not in Nicaragua, but it sure feels that way.
[00:12:06]  There's about 428,000 ballots in Maricopa left outstanding.
[00:12:10]  Is that right?
[00:12:10]  That was a very fitting song.
[00:12:12]  You know what song that was?
[00:12:13]  No.
[00:12:13]  That's Foo Fighters Everlong.
[00:12:15]  And that's what we're going to be in for.
[00:12:17]  Everlong.
[00:12:17]  If every teenager that was mine and Andrew's age learned the song Everlong, we're going to be sitting here ever long, waiting for Steven Richard to count the ballots.
[00:12:27]  This is the next two.
[00:12:28]  This is great news.
[00:12:28]  So 428,000 ballots left in Maricopa County.
[00:12:31]  Yes.
[00:12:32]  We're breaking it down.
[00:12:33]  We're breaking down math.
[00:12:34]  Let's bring our audience up to speed because we were doing this during the break.
[00:12:37]  Tyler, you're saying there's 275,000 election day early drop-offs.
[00:12:42]  I'm going to make my prediction right now.
[00:12:44]  Now there's 86,000 from pre-election drop-offs.
[00:12:48]  So pre-election day, that would be Monday, right?
[00:12:51]  Sunday, Saturday.
[00:12:53]  There's 50,000 emergency, which we're getting clarity on what that even means.
[00:12:57]  That's a creepy.
[00:12:58]  Those are emergency Democrat votes.
[00:13:00]  I think that's like flying from China votes.
[00:13:06]  I'm kidding.
[00:13:06]  You're going to clip that up.
[00:13:07]  17,000 box three.
[00:13:09]  That's going to break 65.
[00:13:11]  70%.
[00:13:12]  Let's say 65, though.
[00:13:13]  No, those are going to be 70%.
[00:13:15]  Average down, guys.
[00:13:16]  I'm going to do something.
[00:13:17]  I want to get scientific on this.
[00:13:18]  I want to go each group here.
[00:13:22]  These New York Times models are hilarious.
[00:13:24]  They're like, there's a lot more Democrat votes in Maricopa left.
[00:13:27]  You guys, you know nothing about Arizona.
[00:13:29]  You know nothing.
[00:13:30]  These freaks on Twitter are like, the race is about to be called in Arizona.
[00:13:34]  You have no idea what you are talking about.
[00:13:37]  All right, I'm doing worst case scenario.
[00:13:38]  Zero.
[00:13:39]  And this is why.
[00:13:40]  Arizona doesn't work like the rest of the country.
[00:13:42]  Well, they're doing their math.
[00:13:43]  In Arizona, when you show up to vote, of which I did yesterday, there were dozens of people that were coming out of their cars with green envelopes.
[00:13:50]  One second, Tyler.
[00:13:51]  Dozens of people dropping off their ballots.
[00:13:54]  And we said a one-to-one, Tyler.
[00:13:55]  This is more than one to one.
[00:13:57]  There's more people that dropped off in Maricopa than voted in person on election day yesterday, which is a great sign.
[00:14:02]  And that does not count our greatest counties of Mojave.
[00:14:06]  Doesn't count La Paz, doesn't count Yuma, doesn't count the same-day election in Pima, doesn't count Pinal, doesn't count Gila, doesn't count Graham, doesn't count Navajo, doesn't count Grenley, doesn't count Cochise.
[00:14:16]  Of all those other amazing counties that could run up the score there, Blake has a path, guys.
[00:14:20]  Blake has a path in a way that is very serious and significant.
[00:14:24]  I'm telling you, if you're the Mark Kelly camp, you're not confident in any way whatsoever.
[00:14:29]  So you have emergency breaking away.
[00:14:32]  You have emergency ballots.
[00:14:33]  It's just Maricopa, by the way.
[00:14:34]  For Katie Hobbs.
[00:14:36]  Yeah.
[00:14:37]  By what?
[00:14:38]  55, 45, which was what we heard.
[00:14:40]  She was breaking before.
[00:14:41]  Okay, so this is the number that I've pulled down for Maricopa County that I think is a number.
[00:14:47]  So I wish I could throw this up on the screen so you understand my math.
[00:14:51]  So these are the estimated groups.
[00:14:54]  The tranches is this is like this is Charlie's favorite word from 2020 was tranches of ballots.

=== Maricopa Emergency Ballots Explained (14:32) ===

[00:15:00]  The first group is 275,000 early day election drop-off ballots.
[00:15:07]  Election day, I'm sorry, election day early ballot drop-off.
[00:15:10]  So they got a ballot in the mail and they dropped it off on election day at a polling place.
[00:15:13]  I believe that minimally we will win those at 65%.
[00:15:17]  That's what we were at.
[00:15:18]  Maybe more.
[00:15:19]  It could be more, but let's be, I think that's a fair number.
[00:15:23]  That's 178,750 ballots for Kerry and 96,254 for Katie.
[00:15:33]  The next group, 86,000 ballots were early drop-offs.
[00:15:38]  Those were breaking for Kerry in the last day.
[00:15:41]  I think that we're going to see a slight break.
[00:15:44]  We have those at 55%, so it's 47,300 for Kerry, 38,700 for the bad guys.
[00:15:52]  We have 50,000 emergency ballots.
[00:15:54]  I've gained clarity on what those are.
[00:15:58]  I have those breaking at 45% for Kerry.
[00:16:03]  It's 22.5% and 27.5% for the bad guys.
[00:16:07]  And then finally, the box threes, which we have at 70%, 11,951.
[00:16:11]  Ultimately, the number comes down to basically $264.50 for Kerry and Blake and $167.
[00:16:17]  So we're pretty close.
[00:16:18]  We're going to be pretty close to adding another $100,000.
[00:16:21]  It's 91.
[00:16:22]  I have it at 91.2,000.
[00:16:24]  100,000 votes for Blake.
[00:16:27]  Yeah, I have it for Kerry and Blake, basically.
[00:16:30]  Same breakdown.
[00:16:31]  Kerry's probably going to overperform this by.
[00:16:33]  Yeah, but look, Blake is down 90,000 votes right now.
[00:16:35]  Yeah, if you extrapolate this House in Maricopa alone.
[00:16:39]  And they haven't counted Pima.
[00:16:41]  So just, yeah, Pima's not going to go our way the same way.
[00:16:43]  So other places in the state same day for Peter.
[00:16:47]  I know.
[00:16:47]  I know.
[00:16:47]  I'm just being thoughtful here.
[00:16:49]  What I explained last night was that the other parts of the state make up for Pima.
[00:16:53]  So even if the worst case scenario happens in Pima and they just magically appear with these emergency ballots, whatever that means, we're going to be in good shape.
[00:17:03]  I mean, 91,000 ballots.
[00:17:05]  By the way, that means we control the Senate.
[00:17:07]  That's a net gain of 91,000 ballots.
[00:17:09]  That's the U.S. Senate.
[00:17:10]  That's the Republican U.S. Senate going through Arizona.
[00:17:13]  So that's my prediction, Charlie.
[00:17:14]  In Maricopa alone.
[00:17:15]  90,000 votes I think that we're going to get out of these remaining votes.
[00:17:20]  In Maricopa.
[00:17:21]  That's a net for Kerry or for the team.
[00:17:24]  Yeah, Kerry and Blake.
[00:17:25]  Kerry Sledden and Kerry and Blake.
[00:17:26]  By the way, these were all below what Kerry's breaking at already.
[00:17:28]  So these are conservative.
[00:17:29]  These are conservative numbers.
[00:17:31]  So staying conservative would be...
[00:17:33]  That means that Kerry would take an 80,000 vote lead right now with the current trajectory.
[00:17:38]  Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:17:40]  We are crunching the numbers that even the media is ignoring.
[00:17:42]  Looks like the Senate might go to the Republicans.
[00:17:44]  Okay, let's talk about some of the House races, and then we're going to get deeper into what's happening in Arizona.
[00:17:48]  And Arizona matters a lot.
[00:17:49]  Matters for the Senate, matters for Kerry Lake, matters for House races, matters for a lot of different things, everybody.
[00:17:55]  And look, people are looking for answers right now.
[00:17:57]  People are trying to find some clarity.
[00:17:59]  People are saying, Charlie, I thought there would be this red wave.
[00:18:01]  Look, there was a hidden Dobbs voter.
[00:18:02]  Gen Z showed up in massive numbers and was micro-targeted.
[00:18:05]  Mail-in ballot killed balloting killed us.
[00:18:08]  When we did not have good candidates, candidate quality mattered a lot.
[00:18:11]  When we did not have good candidates, we just got slaughtered.
[00:18:13]  That's that simple.
[00:18:14]  When we did not have good candidates, it's just we were not able to compete in a lot of these districts.
[00:18:19]  And they spent a ton of money.
[00:18:20]  We got out-competed.
[00:18:22]  And look, you might say, well, what about Pennsylvania, Jack?
[00:18:24]  What happened in Pennsylvania?
[00:18:26]  Look, I look at the Pennsylvania vote, Charlie, and I appreciate you having me on today.
[00:18:30]  That it really was a state where these targeted mail-in ballot harvesting operations, the amount of money they put into that, the fact that pollsters, I think, on both sides of the aisle totally missed this Gen Z bump, millennial bump that was coming out, that they were going to vote at a clip that they've never voted in before.
[00:18:49]  Now, you and I talked about this the day before the election, and I think a lot of people were not putting that into their projections.
[00:18:55]  So it turns out, guess what, boys and girls?
[00:18:58]  Gen Z millennials, they will vote.
[00:19:01]  They prefer to vote by mail.
[00:19:03]  They prefer to vote by Dropbox, whatever it is, and they're going to turn it back.
[00:19:07]  And these are TikTok-driven operations.
[00:19:10]  It's something that totally flew under the radar.
[00:19:12]  It's sort of one of those things where it wasn't real until it was real.
[00:19:15]  Guess what?
[00:19:16]  Now it's real.
[00:19:16]  Millennials actually voted pretty well, though.
[00:19:18]  It's Gen Z. Millennials were almost, we won a lot of states with millennials, 28 and older.
[00:19:23]  I was just saying in general, this is a bubble that I would say.
[00:19:27]  I mean, I'm sure there's Zoomers that voted well as well, but it's a bubble that really targets those specific demographics.
[00:19:33]  Can I have that breakdown?
[00:19:35]  And here's the thing, by the way, right?
[00:19:36]  I talked about this before.
[00:19:38]  Pennsylvania in the past does not have a history of voting early or voting by mail.
[00:19:43]  So that's your boomers, that's your older Gen Xers, that's your older millennials.
[00:19:49]  They're not voting early.
[00:19:50]  They're not doing the mail-in votes.
[00:19:52]  So, this operation, okay, it's here to stay, boys and girls.
[00:19:56]  It's here to stay now.
[00:19:57]  And either the GOP can put on their big boy pants and decide to actually start putting money behind this or do what Florida and Georgia did and actually pass election integrity laws.
[00:20:06]  But you can't do that unless you get into power.
[00:20:08]  So, guess what?
[00:20:09]  You got to spend money to make money.
[00:20:11]  Can I say something real quickly?
[00:20:13]  I have Brazilians messaging me.
[00:20:15]  By the way, they're about to go into civil war in Brazil.
[00:20:19]  I have Brazilians messaging me going, Wait, you guys don't know the results of your election yet?
[00:20:24]  That's right.
[00:20:24]  Yeah, try for a couple days.
[00:20:26]  I'll say one thing.
[00:20:27]  Brazilians just had their elections, and they think our elections are worse than that.
[00:20:30]  There's one thing I know right here.
[00:20:32]  Crazy.
[00:20:33]  It's that I'm here today in Carrizona, baby.
[00:20:37]  Carriezona.
[00:20:38]  Carriezona.
[00:20:40]  She's going to be announced governor by tonight.
[00:20:42]  Andrew, what are the numbers?
[00:20:44]  So I've got this.
[00:20:45]  I've got the breakdown that we were just talking about last segment.
[00:20:49]  I wanted to put it together visually for people.
[00:20:51]  I think it's important to see it.
[00:20:52]  So I'm going to throw this up.
[00:20:54]  Here, I'll put this in our chat here, actually.
[00:20:59]  So this is, I think it's hard for everybody to kind of wrap their head around the numbers.
[00:21:07]  Studio, can you guys throw that up?
[00:21:09]  But for our radio audience, I mean, the ballots remaining are in four tranches, right?
[00:21:16]  There's Election Day early drops.
[00:21:18]  And this is just Maricopa.
[00:21:20]  Late earlies, that means they dropped them off probably on Sunday or Monday.
[00:21:25]  So here's the graphic right there.
[00:21:27]  It's on the screen.
[00:21:28]  Late earlies, Sunday or Monday drop-offs.
[00:21:31]  Would that include Saturdays too?
[00:21:34]  Tyler?
[00:21:34]  Late earlies?
[00:21:35]  Saturday, Sunday, Monday?
[00:21:37]  Yeah, it's what they believe were drop-offs that were mainly Sunday and Monday.
[00:21:42]  Okay.
[00:21:42]  So it's that final 72-hour push.
[00:21:44]  Yeah, did we get?
[00:21:45]  It was the final that they couldn't scan before just like getting prepared for election day.
[00:21:50]  It's normal.
[00:21:51]  What about emergency?
[00:21:52]  Did we get clarity on what that is?
[00:21:53]  Let me see if Gina told me.
[00:21:55]  This is Foboda, the queen.
[00:21:59]  What does emergency mean?
[00:22:01]  Emergency to me sounds like that could be provisional ballots.
[00:22:03]  Yeah, probably.
[00:22:05]  Box three is the, they're saying there's 17,000.
[00:22:08]  Okay, so you take all of those ballots together.
[00:22:11]  That's 428,000 total votes still outstanding in Maricopa.
[00:22:17]  All right.
[00:22:17]  This is conservative.
[00:22:19]  Now, percentage for GDP, GOP, we are taking conservative.
[00:22:23]  That election day early drops would break 65% for GOP.
[00:22:26]  Late earlies, since those are still early voters, technically, they're just later in the cycle, are going to be still more pro-carry.
[00:22:36]  This is what you've seen in the trends, right?
[00:22:38]  Yeah.
[00:22:38]  55%.
[00:22:39]  So we took it down from 65.
[00:22:42]  Oh, they got it up on screen.
[00:22:44]  Yeah.
[00:22:46]  So they've got 86, late early, 55% breaking for us.
[00:22:52]  Emergency, you're saying that Katie Hobbs is actually going to win those, the emergency ballots, right?
[00:23:00]  So we're saying percentage for GOP is 45% going our way.
[00:23:04]  Box three, which is the much talked about box three, you think we're going to win that 65%.
[00:23:09]  All right.
[00:23:09]  So that means Lake and Blake are going to get around 178,000 out of the election day early drops.
[00:23:15]  They're going to get 47,000 out of the late earlies.
[00:23:18]  They're going to get 22,000 out of the emergency and about 11,000 out of the box three for a total of $259,600 to Hobbs and Kelly, $168,400.
[00:23:29]  That's a total net gain for Lake and Blake, give or take, of about $90,000.
[00:23:34]  That basically puts Blake tied at that point.
[00:23:36]  Yeah, just for Maricopa County.
[00:23:37]  Yeah, because Blake is 90,000.
[00:23:41]  So Maricopa.
[00:23:43]  Exactly where we're left.
[00:23:47]  We're losing by less, though.
[00:23:48]  The remainder of the state will be favorable, more favorable.
[00:23:52]  Most outstanding across the state is going to be those same election day early drops or day ups, right?
[00:23:57]  No, honestly, I got to see something people say, Charlie, you're wasting your time.
[00:23:59]  This system is a joke.
[00:24:00]  Honestly, you're wrong.
[00:24:01]  Kerry likes to be governor, and when she's governor, I hope you guys eat your own words.
[00:24:06]  We're going to make it happen.
[00:24:07]  Stop with your cynicism.
[00:24:08]  Boom.
[00:24:08]  I'm getting some of these emails.
[00:24:09]  Charlie, stop wasting your time.
[00:24:11]  All right, fine.
[00:24:11]  Then go leave the freaking country, okay?
[00:24:13]  We haven't slept in five days.
[00:24:14]  You're telling me to like, it's no, Kerry likes to be governor of Arizona, okay?
[00:24:18]  Let me tell you why they're wrong, Charlie.
[00:24:20]  Because at the end of the day, it irritates me so much when people say that.
[00:24:23]  At the end of the day, look, I mean, there's a lot of hopelessness that's out there, and I understand it because of what has happened in some of our communities across the country.
[00:24:30]  This is ridiculous.
[00:24:31]  But let me tell you, and the system that we have here sucks.
[00:24:35]  Yeah.
[00:24:35]  But this is a war that's fought with many little battles that we have to take back our elections.
[00:24:40]  We have to take back each election cycle and we have to proceed.
[00:24:44]  And this means having great secretaries of state.
[00:24:45]  This means having great elections departments at your county level.
[00:24:48]  This is the reason why I'm telling you, and I'm on this war path.
[00:24:52]  The future of the country is at stake with counties the size of Maricopa County, the size of Clark County, the sizes of King County, the sizes of Los Angeles and San Diego and San Bernardino.
[00:25:06]  We are losing our country in the West, and by extension, the rest of the country because we've allowed massive unconstitutional growth of gigantic counties.
[00:25:19]  And this is not Jeffersonian by model.
[00:25:22]  Jeffersonian looks a lot more like it looks back east.
[00:25:24]  Look at some of those Midwestern counties out there where I think it's like 8,000 person.
[00:25:29]  Iowa's like that.
[00:25:29]  Nebraska's like that.
[00:25:30]  Georgia's like that.
[00:25:31]  Georgia's like that.
[00:25:32]  Yeah.
[00:25:33]  It's completely insane to me.
[00:25:34]  But when I look at the, and Charlie, to your point as well, for the people saying, oh, you're wasting your time, you're wasting your time.
[00:25:40]  I see data.
[00:25:41]  I see numbers.
[00:25:42]  I see analysis.
[00:25:43]  I see ration.
[00:25:44]  I see the actual numbers.
[00:25:49]  We drove people out.
[00:25:50]  I mean, Charlie, you had a metaphorical whip in your hand on Tuesday and were just lashing, just whipping, whipping, whipping people to get out.
[00:26:00]  And so this stream, okay, last night and today, nobody's up here doing doom and gloom.
[00:26:06]  The eulogy music is, we can disavow that.
[00:26:09]  But this is data.
[00:26:11]  This is number crunching.
[00:26:13]  This is real life.
[00:26:14]  I got clarity on those emergency votes.
[00:26:16]  What is it?
[00:26:16]  The emergency ballots were the extended operational hours of early polling place voting.
[00:26:23]  So those may be very ugly votes.
[00:26:26]  Very ugly?
[00:26:26]  Yeah, very not good votes.
[00:26:28]  Wait, explain that in layman's.
[00:26:30]  Just in-person early voting that happened, occurred, that occurred before the election.
[00:26:34]  These are not, these are a lot of places that are in very blue areas for the most part.
[00:26:38]  Okay.
[00:26:39]  These are not, these are like government employees.
[00:26:42]  So I got us losing those by 10 points on this assumption.
[00:26:44]  It's probably, it's probably.
[00:26:47]  Okay, wait, wait.
[00:26:48]  Gina, Gina.
[00:26:49]  She's saying she's saying that those later early voters were trending red, but I think.
[00:26:56]  Our assumption still probably is within the within the framework.
[00:27:00]  Yeah, we might lose a few more votes out of that group, but luckily it's only 50,000.
[00:27:04]  I was going to say we're losing right now 22,500 to 27,500 in that box.
[00:27:13]  So let's just say we lose 10.
[00:27:15]  All right.
[00:27:16]  So that would be tell voters that it was emergency.
[00:27:18]  They just thought they were early voting.
[00:27:20]  So what does that mean, Gina?
[00:27:22]  It's going to be litigated in the courts is what it means.
[00:27:24]  Basically, so I mean, we're looking at the trajectory right here.
[00:27:27]  Blake Masters will come within like with all this Maricopa, he'll be quote-unquote tied.
[00:27:33]  And this is going to be a knife fight, metaphorical knife fight between Mark Kelly and Blake.
[00:27:36]  This is going to be what we thought Pennsylvania was going to be.
[00:27:39]  But these 50,000 votes might become extraordinarily important for Blake.
[00:27:43]  But also, I mean, Pinal still has a lot to report.
[00:27:46]  Blake is going to win from this point forward in Pima.
[00:27:48]  He is.
[00:27:49]  There's no way he's losing by 28 points.
[00:27:51]  So the point is that they have not reported their election day numbers yet in Pima.
[00:27:56]  And Graham is still going to come in.
[00:27:57]  Yuma hasn't reported all the way.
[00:27:59]  What does Coconino look like?
[00:28:00]  Coconino's, the margins are insane.
[00:28:02]  He's going to close that gap.
[00:28:03]  That's a really good sign.
[00:28:04]  All right.
[00:28:04]  So just down 29 points.
[00:28:06]  They're holding off all these Democrats.
[00:28:08]  Yeah, of course they are so they can see what they need.
[00:28:10]  Yeah, and Coconino and Pima.
[00:28:12]  We have poll watchers, got to keep eyes on them.
[00:28:14]  Look, Blake can win this thing by 15 to 30,000 votes.
[00:28:17]  Well, just see Apache.
[00:28:18]  Look at Apache real quick.
[00:28:19]  Apache is close.
[00:28:22]  No, it's blowout.
[00:28:23]  So why does it look like.
[00:28:26]  So, look, there's a lot here.
[00:28:30]  Okay, let's go to some other races because we are a national program while we guys tabulate more in Arizona.
[00:28:34]  Nevada, Andrew, what happened in Nevada last night?
[00:28:37]  Nevada was so exciting right at the end there.
[00:28:41]  You know, what we saw really, we were getting reports that Washoe County, so Washoe County is going to be Reno, right down the hill from Tahoe, from the northern part of Tahoe.
[00:28:53]  Get down into Reno.
[00:28:55]  Big population center.
[00:28:56]  It's the largest population center in northern Nevada.
[00:28:58]  We've got 64% of votes that have been counted.
[00:29:03]  What we heard was that Washoe went out to an early lead for the Dems and then was breaking heavy, like 70, 30, 75, 25 for Republicans on day of.
[00:29:15]  Adam Laxalt took the lead in Washoe County.
[00:29:18]  So again, it's basically Washoe and Clark.
[00:29:20]  Obviously, Clark being Vegas, Vegas had a bigger share of the vote.
[00:29:24]  But with Washoe County now breaking, which it broke for Biden in 2020, now that it's breaking for Laxalt, that's a huge, huge, huge gain.

=== Legacy Box And Nevada Votes (04:00) ===

[00:29:33]  We still have votes outstanding in the heavily, heavily conservative Douglas County and the heavily, heavily conservative Lyon County.
[00:29:40]  Lots of population there.
[00:29:41]  What's going on in Clark?
[00:29:43]  Clark is still outstanding, but less.
[00:29:47]  This has it at 78%.
[00:29:50]  I was seeing it at 84% last night.
[00:29:52]  So the question is: how many votes are outstanding in Clark?
[00:29:55]  But here's the deal: Clark, the votes that should be left in Clark should be trending as so.
[00:30:00]  Clark was actually closing as votes were coming in last night.
[00:30:03]  Really?
[00:30:04]  Yeah, it was closing.
[00:30:04]  It was getting tighter.
[00:30:05]  All right, I got to tell our audience about Legacy Box.
[00:30:07]  I think I got to steal this for a second.
[00:30:09]  Let me guys tell you guys about Legacy Box.
[00:30:11]  It's a phenomenal product.
[00:30:12]  You guys can get all of your family memories saved and stored for future generations and get them to be uploaded on the cloud.
[00:30:21]  Look, if you're like me, you want to make sure that your old media, like Superfilm, Super 8, VHS, tapes, and slides, do not collect dust.
[00:30:29]  Jack, you got to check out Legacy Boxes.
[00:30:30]  LegacyBox.com/slash Kirk.
[00:30:33]  What holiday memories or traditions have you captured or do you want to capture and make sure they live forever?
[00:30:38]  So go to legacybox.com/slash Kirk.
[00:30:40]  That is legacybox.com/slash Kirk.
[00:30:43]  Check it out right now.
[00:30:44]  They do a great job.
[00:30:45]  Make sure your family's memories live forever.
[00:30:48]  That is the conservative thing to do.
[00:30:51]  Make sure your family's memories live forever.
[00:30:53]  Go to legacybox.com/slash Kirk.
[00:30:55]  That is legacybox.com/slash Kirk.
[00:30:59]  They do such a great job.
[00:31:00]  I'm so proud of them.
[00:31:01]  And I think you guys will be too.
[00:31:02]  Legacybox.com/slash Kirk.
[00:31:04]  Okay, Carrie Lake's probably going to win the governorship by 120 to 140,000 votes.
[00:31:08]  That's my head math.
[00:31:09]  And then I think Blake Masters could either lose by 10,000 to 20,000 votes or win by 10,000 to 20,000 votes.
[00:31:14]  That's the window, Tyler.
[00:31:15]  Am I right?
[00:31:17]  You're right.
[00:31:17]  Thank you.
[00:31:18]  That's all right up there.
[00:31:19]  Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:31:21]  I was just doing it in my head while I was doing the legacy box announcement.
[00:31:24]  Subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.
[00:31:26]  A lot happening.
[00:31:27]  We'll be right back.
[00:31:39]  Inflation continues to hit all-time highs.
[00:31:41]  And while guys like me keep telling you to diversify with gold and silver, today I have a different investment you should make.
[00:31:47]  What you need in your portfolio is more meat.
[00:31:50]  Yes, combat this record high inflation by changing the way you shop for beef, chicken, and seafood.
[00:31:55]  Good ranchers let you skip the cheap imported cost you an arm and leg meat of the grocery store and get locally sourced 100% American cuts delivered right to your door.
[00:32:04]  Better than that, when you subscribe, you lock in your price for the life of your subscription.
[00:32:08]  Meat prices are going up and they will continue to go up, but your price and budget can be secured with a good rancher subscription.
[00:32:14]  I love good ranchers and you will too.
[00:32:16]  Save an extra $30 off when you visit goodranchers.com/slash Charlie.
[00:32:21]  When you use my code Charlie at checkout, lock in your price, save $30, and get American meat delivered with Good Ranchers today.
[00:32:28]  Don't wait.
[00:32:28]  You're forever priced.
[00:32:29]  If you subscribe now at goodranchers.com/slash Charlie.
[00:32:37]  Where if the, for example, if Cuomo was up 10 points or up 20 points, it wouldn't be as much.
[00:32:43]  We could, if the night goes well, if people are showing up in big numbers and coming out of the rivers and coming out of the valleys, as Donald Trump would say, it is possible that New York has more Republicans in the delegation than Democrats.
[00:32:56]  But the only way this happens, everybody, is an unprecedented election day turnout where you need to do this.
[00:33:03]  You need to show up at 6 a.m. And then throughout the day, you need to find 10 other people that haven't yet voted that day and just nag them and say, you got to go vote.
[00:33:11]  You got to go vote.
[00:33:11]  You got to go vote.
[00:33:12]  And it's a really interesting thing where the Democrats have this incredibly sophisticated modeling and they have early voting and all this stuff where we as Republicans basically like get everyone excited and say just go do the thing.

=== Rural Turnout Matters Now (15:09) ===

[00:33:34]  The regime is falling.
[00:33:36]  The citizen is rising.
[00:33:38]  And Charlie Kirk is leading the way.
[00:33:40]  Welcome back, everybody.
[00:33:41]  Tyler, can you walk us through what you just said?
[00:33:44]  Which part?
[00:33:45]  How about the part about what is the window for Blake?
[00:33:48]  Lose by 20,000, win by 20,000.
[00:33:50]  That's the conservative window, right?
[00:33:52]  The conservative window right now is that the votes seem to be there for Blake to win.
[00:33:56]  I mean, Blake needs to have upwards of, I think, probably safely 550,000 remaining ballots in the state.
[00:34:03]  I would be shocked if there's less than that.
[00:34:06]  There's probably closer to between 600,000, 650,000 conservatively in the state remaining.
[00:34:11]  It could be upwards of 700,000.
[00:34:15]  So right now, Maricopa County alone, there's 400,000 ballots.
[00:34:17]  That means that the rest of the state, there's probably at least 650.
[00:34:20]  It could be closer to 700.
[00:34:23]  700,000.
[00:34:24]  I mean, based on a lot of really solid conservative assumptions, Blake pulls this out.
[00:34:31]  That's right.
[00:34:32]  Carrie, I think, is a foregone conclusion at this point.
[00:34:34]  Wouldn't you agree?
[00:34:36]  Of course, Carrie.
[00:34:38]  Carrie's one.
[00:34:38]  Carrie's going to win the governorship by anywhere between $80,000 to $200,000.
[00:34:42]  We're going to be celebrating a wonderful national audience in a victory speech, I hope, tonight.
[00:34:48]  Tonight.
[00:34:48]  Tonight.
[00:34:49]  Yep.
[00:34:49]  Tonight.
[00:34:50]  Everyone should be tuning into that because it's going to be awesome.
[00:34:53]  Yeah.
[00:34:54]  Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:35:11]  Welcome back, everybody.
[00:35:12]  What's going on in Nevada, guys?
[00:35:13]  There's some funny business in Clark County.
[00:35:15]  Yeah, it sounds like, so, you know, we're in a really, really strong position on paper right now in Nevada, but here's the big X factor, especially concerning Laxalt.
[00:35:26]  I think Lombardo's out of range on this, but 100,000 mail-in still remaining in Clark County.
[00:35:33]  It's an estimate.
[00:35:34]  We're not exactly sure, but 100,000.
[00:35:37]  We're actually texting with Rich Barris right now, People's Pundit, Big Data Poll, Rich Barris.
[00:35:42]  He's saying, you know, that's what's expected to come in over the next four days.
[00:35:46]  It leans Dem, but it ain't all them.
[00:35:49]  And the New York Times is out there already.
[00:35:52]  Election officials in Nevada say they've been flooded by thousands of mail-in ballots, and it may take several days to count the votes and upload the results.
[00:36:02]  There's just no way to tell which way it's going to break in Clark County.
[00:36:07]  Based on Rich is saying that there was 400,000 votes in Clark County, right?
[00:36:14]  To net Dem's 40,000.
[00:36:16]  So unless they're shenanigans, they're not going to make it up when you count all the rurals.
[00:36:22]  Laxalt's still the favorite.
[00:36:23]  Laxalt's team said we're safely outside the margin of fraud in Clark.
[00:36:27]  We have lawyers and watchers everywhere.
[00:36:28]  Laxalt's going to win.
[00:36:29]  Yeah, I was talking actually with Laxalt's team after we got off the show last night.
[00:36:34]  I think they were watching us, and they said, look, our margins in these rural counties out there, and even obviously Washaw.
[00:36:41]  And actually, Andrew, you were the one who went through it.
[00:36:43]  You went through.
[00:36:44]  You had the Google map up here.
[00:36:46]  What did I say?
[00:36:46]  I said 70, 30.
[00:36:48]  I said 70, 30 and then Lyon County.
[00:36:50]  It's breaking more than that.
[00:36:51]  7422.
[00:36:52]  These rural counties are breaking huge.
[00:36:55]  Now, they're not very populous.
[00:36:57]  Yeah, but this is the desert rate.
[00:36:59]  There's still only 70% in.
[00:37:00]  There's only 60% in in Lyon.
[00:37:02]  But the margins are great.
[00:37:03]  The margins, and we're gaining each ballot drop on those.
[00:37:07]  So, I mean, we're feeling really solid.
[00:37:09]  And if Laxalt's in, Lombardo's in, that's a big deal.
[00:37:13]  And by the way, there's a bunch of down ballot rates.
[00:37:17]  Someone just said Charlie.
[00:37:17]  Charlie, stop getting my hopes up.
[00:37:18]  There's no way Carrie Lake wins.
[00:37:20]  Oh, my gosh.
[00:37:21]  I understand you're jaded, everybody, but it's okay to believe.
[00:37:24]  Put the math back up.
[00:37:25]  Show the numbers again.
[00:37:26]  She's going to win by 120,000 votes, guys.
[00:37:29]  Belief.
[00:37:29]  I mean, I hate to say, Jack, how many times do we have to go through this and actually build credibility with people?
[00:37:33]  We don't do these.
[00:37:34]  I mean, did we get one call wrong last night?
[00:37:36]  Guys, don't forget to do this again.
[00:37:39]  I know.
[00:37:39]  Like he did during the night of the primary.
[00:37:42]  Ron Johnson.
[00:37:42]  He sat there.
[00:37:44]  Come on.
[00:37:45]  We're going to get between in Maricopa alone a net gain for Carrie of $85,000 to $92,000.
[00:37:54]  And Pima's marriage drops coming from.
[00:37:56]  And we're only down 10, we're only down 10, 12,000 votes right now for Carrie.
[00:38:00]  Maricopa's going to get her ahead by about 70,000.
[00:38:03]  Just wait till the same day, Election Day in Coconino and Pima come in.
[00:38:06]  I'm telling you, they haven't even reported.
[00:38:08]  And Tyler's right.
[00:38:09]  They're holding back to try to crush Blake.
[00:38:11]  Charlie's accurate on this.
[00:38:13]  We were talking about this for days leading up to the election.
[00:38:15]  Remember last week, it was about a week ago, I started saying, guys, we might win Coconedo County.
[00:38:20]  And the reason was at the time, a week ago, it was like only 17,000 votes had been tabulated up until last Thursday.
[00:38:26]  That is a massive, massive undervote in Coconuto County, which means that we're going to have a lot of votes that show up.
[00:38:32]  Charlie's right.
[00:38:33]  And they're all red votes.
[00:38:34]  So like it is plausible that we have like a 65, 70% turnout for Kerry and Blake in Coconedo County, which is like, this is why they're like holding back, I think, on these results.
[00:38:46]  They are.
[00:38:46]  Because they're like, it's going to just like, the AP is going to call.
[00:38:50]  Let me just.
[00:38:50]  So, for example, in 2018, when Doug Ducey ran for the governorship here in Arizona in Pima County, which is, again, it's University of Arizona.
[00:39:00]  It's Tucson, not exactly a stronghold, right?
[00:39:03]  Doug Ducey in Pima County lost, but he lost by three points.
[00:39:07]  Okay.
[00:39:08]  So then you say, well, Charlie, how are things going right now in Pima County?
[00:39:11]  Well, currently, it has Kerry Lake down 28 points.
[00:39:14]  Right.
[00:39:15]  So what I'm saying is that there's about to be a surge of same-day votes in Pima County.
[00:39:19]  We might not win Pima County.
[00:39:20]  You're not losing it by 28 points.
[00:39:22]  It's not possible, okay?
[00:39:24]  Right?
[00:39:24]  So, I mean, it's very obvious Pima and Coconina are holding back.
[00:39:27]  Our best voters.
[00:39:28]  I think it's the worst case scenario we lose Pima County.
[00:39:31]  45 points.
[00:39:33]  Well, this is where the turnout numbers matter.
[00:39:36]  It's important to look at the turnout numbers, right?
[00:39:38]  We could lose Pima County by like 15, 18 points.
[00:39:43]  But we still have 10 points to make up.
[00:39:45]  It's still moving in our direction.
[00:39:47]  It shows right now, and it shows Blake down almost 30 points, 28 points.
[00:39:51]  That's just not true.
[00:39:52]  That's not accurate.
[00:39:53]  Not going to happen, right?
[00:39:54]  And by the way, Coachise is about to go bright red.
[00:39:57]  It hasn't reported fully.
[00:39:58]  There's no way you only win Coach East by 14 points.
[00:40:01]  Yeah, I agree with that too.
[00:40:03]  Coach East probably has a few.
[00:40:04]  But this is the story.
[00:40:06]  But this is the story for the remaining rural counties.
[00:40:09]  There's a patchwork of a bunch of like 5,000 votes here and 5,000 votes there.
[00:40:14]  And that's what's going to happen.
[00:40:14]  They're going to turn out bright red.
[00:40:16]  Yuma is the same thing, by the way.
[00:40:17]  Yeah, nobody in Mojave and Yuma and Yavapai and Cochise are voting for Katie Hobbs everywhere.
[00:40:25]  No, I mean, Yavapai, Yavapai, I think, is only going to extend even more, in my opinion.
[00:40:29]  Andrew, what are we looking at?
[00:40:31]  Well, we're going race by race, basically.
[00:40:37]  We're going to give you updates on all of the races that we sort of pinpointed before Tuesday to really look out for, right?
[00:40:48]  So we've got three races that were on our hit list in Georgia, Georgia 2, Georgia 6, Georgia 10.
[00:40:55]  Arizona, there's four races we're looking at.
[00:40:57]  Eli Crane just won.
[00:40:59]  He's a newcomer from a Debs seat, so that's a pickup in AZ2.
[00:41:04]  Wisconsin, Jesse James just won a Michigan.
[00:41:08]  That's going to be a pickup.
[00:41:11]  Florida, we had Anna Polina.
[00:41:13]  That was technically a flip.
[00:41:15]  And then Laura Lee, right?
[00:41:19]  In Florida 15.
[00:41:20]  So Florida 15, Florida 13.
[00:41:23]  Salazar won.
[00:41:25]  Michigan, John Gibbs lost.
[00:41:27]  That was tough.
[00:41:28]  That was a big loss, actually.
[00:41:29]  I haven't looked at those numbers recently.
[00:41:31]  Michigan 7, Tom Barrett, he was an underdog.
[00:41:35]  I think we lost that.
[00:41:36]  Michigan just didn't go our way.
[00:41:39]  Michigan was a bad night.
[00:41:40]  Michigan.
[00:41:41]  Michigan, Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, God bless him, pulled it off.
[00:41:44]  He really carried a lot there.
[00:41:45]  But the Midwest, the upper Midwest did not deliver, man.
[00:41:48]  Like, the congressional districts in Illinois are a bloodbath.
[00:41:51]  We had a lot of pickup opportunities there, and they're just not there.
[00:41:56]  Unfortunately, I mean, that's just, I mean, like, for example, Lauren Underwood won by seven points, and she's a communist in the 14th congressional district in Illinois.
[00:42:05]  Yeah.
[00:42:05]  I mean, that was a potential pickup.
[00:42:06]  I mean, that's a seat that can be won.
[00:42:08]  Lauren Underwood is awful.
[00:42:09]  She's terrible.
[00:42:11]  So, yeah, I mean, look, the upper Midwest, and people say, you know, Charlie, what about fraud?
[00:42:15]  Look, they've perfected mail-in balloting, so we have to get better.
[00:42:18]  Okay, this is going to keep happening each cycle.
[00:42:19]  So we've got to figure it out.
[00:42:21]  What's the game plan?
[00:42:22]  I'm open to ideas, right?
[00:42:24]  Yeah.
[00:42:24]  But, Andrew, is that the right attitude?
[00:42:26]  We've got to figure this out because.
[00:42:28]  Well, I mean, there's a time.
[00:42:29]  I mean, you tweeted about this morning.
[00:42:31]  You said there's going to be a lot of time to point fingers at people.
[00:42:34]  Right now, we've got to keep our eyes on what we can actually win.
[00:42:36]  We're in for a battle here in the state of Arizona for the next four or five days.
[00:42:40]  We're in a battle in Nevada for a few days as those mail-ins come in in Clark County.
[00:42:47]  But, you know, I think if you're going to sum this up, there is, the Dobbs vote.
[00:42:55]  Was huge.
[00:42:55]  It was huge, especially in the Upper Midwest and then Pennsylvania.
[00:43:00]  I think the Dobbs vote, you know, we talk about how they had this enthusiasm gap.
[00:43:08]  NBC came out with a poll.
[00:43:09]  Everybody fixated on one.
[00:43:11]  It was almost like misdirection.
[00:43:13]  Everybody fixated on one data point.
[00:43:15]  That was that 82% of the country felt that the country was going in the wrong direction.
[00:43:19]  Okay.
[00:43:20]  Well, that's interesting.
[00:43:20]  But the buried lead was the fact that Dems made up the enthusiasm gap.
[00:43:26]  How did they do that?
[00:43:27]  They spent, they spent, they spent, they tick-tocked on two issues: abortion, abortion, and that, you know, a bunch of terrorists, fascists are going to take over.
[00:43:36]  Student loans do, man.
[00:43:37]  Student loans, I think, is absolutely one of those hidden deals.
[00:43:40]  All right, let's go through Georgia's seats here.
[00:43:42]  Please.
[00:43:42]  Georgia, two.
[00:43:45]  Unfortunately, got crushed.
[00:43:48]  Yeah, we got crushed.
[00:43:49]  10 points.
[00:43:50]  10 points.
[00:43:50]  Bishop won that.
[00:43:52]  So that was a loss.
[00:43:54]  Georgia, six, that was an open seat.
[00:43:56]  McCormick crushed 24 points.
[00:44:01]  Win plus 24.
[00:44:03]  All right.
[00:44:07]  Let's go to Ohio.
[00:44:09]  I think that would be an interesting one.
[00:44:11]  Again, what we're doing here is we are going.
[00:44:17]  We had isolated some targets in advance.
[00:44:23]  And so here, let me see here.
[00:44:26]  Struggling to pull up the statement.
[00:44:28]  Yeah, while you do that, can I just mention Kelly Schabaka in Alaska is running a Gran a Great race.
[00:44:34]  She is winning, but she is against Leisha Murkowski.
[00:44:37]  She's going to lose.
[00:44:38]  But she's going to lose because of ranked choice voting.
[00:44:40]  So Kelly Shabaka is going to win the most amount of votes, but a plurality, not a majority.
[00:44:48]  It's just a shame.
[00:44:50]  That's right.
[00:44:51]  And so that's where we're at with Kelly Shabaka there.
[00:44:54]  And so it looks like Lisa Murkowski, thanks to much McConnell's $9 million and reconfiguring the voting laws, does quite a lot, doesn't it?
[00:45:06]  That one is so frustrating.
[00:45:08]  And I was having this debate with somebody.
[00:45:09]  They're like, oh, no, but it just avoids a runoff.
[00:45:11]  And it's like, no, the runoff happens miraculously, you know, through this second vote, right?
[00:45:19]  And, you know, she's basically, you know, Chewbacca's going to get, they're going to enforce their moderate pick through the system.
[00:45:29]  And that's not the way this stuff's supposed to go.
[00:45:31]  If you win your race, you should win.
[00:45:33]  I mean, I think Georgia's runoff rules are ridiculous, if I'm being honest.
[00:45:38]  It is, but honestly, it's bailing us out.
[00:45:39]  It's bailing us out.
[00:45:40]  He's winning into the proliferation.
[00:45:41]  Well, we wouldn't have, I mean, had they not had a libertarian.
[00:45:44]  Yeah, they do that every state, man.
[00:45:45]  It's an intentional, it's a dark money thing, and it's very obvious what they want.
[00:45:50]  So, yeah, look, Ohio went poorly despite JD Vance.
[00:45:53]  Ohio one, we lost by four.
[00:45:55]  Ohio 13 lost by six.
[00:45:56]  Ohio nine lost by double digits, man, in Ohio.
[00:46:00]  Dem flip in Ohio.
[00:46:02]  You know what was really clear is that people were bombarded over JD and they got that.
[00:46:05]  They received the message, but they felt a lot of comfort split ticketing.
[00:46:09]  A lot of people in Ohio felt some comfort split ticketing.
[00:46:12]  Shabbat was a Republican incumbent, and he lost.
[00:46:15]  We got to have a break here.
[00:46:16]  Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:46:39]  The Charlie Kirk Show starts now.
[00:46:43]  Okay, welcome back, everybody.
[00:46:44]  Email me freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:46:46]  Yeah, you look across the country.
[00:46:47]  The industrial Midwest was the swing in the miss.
[00:46:50]  It really was.
[00:46:51]  The Northeast underperformed based on projections.
[00:46:54]  Would you agree with that, Andrew?
[00:46:55]  But the Midwest was the massive loser last year.
[00:46:58]  I'm not kidding.
[00:46:59]  I'm very, very curious how many, and we talked about this in hour one.
[00:47:03]  I'm very curious how many people just emigrated out of these states.
[00:47:08]  Well, I mean, me.
[00:47:09]  I mean, I left Illinois.
[00:47:10]  Exactly.
[00:47:11]  And I think a lot of people from New York, the question is, did Zeldon's voters move to Florida?
[00:47:17]  Did Tudor Dixon's voters move to Texas and Arizona?
[00:47:24]  It's an open question.
[00:47:24]  A lot of them, people are moving to Tennessee as well.
[00:47:26]  That's a lot.
[00:47:26]  And I mean, you get more, you get more of more, right?
[00:47:28]  So, trends start to then extrapolate.
[00:47:31]  And, I mean, the more credit that I can pour on to Ron Johnson for still winning, that's a big deal, man.
[00:47:38]  I mean, Wisconsin is structurally a very difficult state to win statewide.
[00:47:42]  They ran a ton of ads against him.
[00:47:44]  And Ron Johnson won.
[00:47:45]  That's a really big deal.
[00:47:46]  Ron Johnson, we mentioned this last night.
[00:47:48]  Ron Johnson is an amazing politician.
[00:47:50]  He's the best.
[00:47:51]  He works the state.
[00:47:52]  He's so disciplined.
[00:47:53]  By the way, Ron Johnson, he went after the vaccine stuff.
[00:47:55]  He had Dr. Malone, Dr. McCullough.
[00:47:57]  God bless that, man.
[00:47:58]  That is a victory that all of us should enjoy.
[00:48:01]  He was being headhunted by the pharmaceutical companies.
[00:48:04]  Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Johnson Johnson.
[00:48:06]  They went after Ron Johnson with everything that they had.
[00:48:10]  And Ron Johnson won convincingly last night.
[00:48:12]  That's a big victory.
[00:48:13]  It's a massive.
[00:48:14]  It's really big, especially considering.
[00:48:15]  We could have lost that.
[00:48:17]  I mean, we could have lost that.
[00:48:18]  Because, I mean, look.
[00:48:19]  The way the rest of the country went, we could have lost it.
[00:48:21]  Honestly, there was a time last night, you guys go back and rewatch the game tape, where it looked like that this was going from like, okay, Florida, and we held, thankfully.
[00:48:29]  It went from this could have been like a very bad, a bad night.
[00:48:32]  It was a good night.
[00:48:33]  You know what I mean?
[00:48:34]  There was kind of that wiggling.
[00:48:35]  I was like, oh, bad.
[00:48:36]  Oh, boy, how bad is this going to break?
[00:48:38]  And so, look, if Salazar won by 15 in Florida's 2017.
[00:48:42]  That's crazy.

=== Ron Johnson Massive Victory (14:48) ===

[00:48:43]  That is a Democrat district, too.
[00:48:45]  Well, it used to be in Miami-Dade County.
[00:48:48]  And so, look, here's the thing: David Schweiker right now is down in Scottsdale.
[00:48:53]  That's going to flip with the later votes.
[00:48:54]  Eli Crane is going to win.
[00:48:55]  Kelly Cooper down by 14.
[00:48:59]  People say that she lost.
[00:49:00]  And then Juan Siscimani up two with lots of votes outstanding, including late Pima.
[00:49:05]  That's great.
[00:49:06]  So, well, the incumbent in Arizona 04, Arizona 4, Kelly Cooper, was our candidate.
[00:49:12]  If this flips, if that flipped, it would have been a big deal.
[00:49:15]  But he's running up against Greg Stanton, the former mayor of Phoenix.
[00:49:19]  I think that's, I think that's the same thing.
[00:49:20]  I mean, the guy's got name ID.
[00:49:22]  He's got, I mean, that's a good point.
[00:49:23]  Yeah, but Juan Siscomani, the fact that Juan Siscomani is up two points, that district covers Pinal and Pima.
[00:49:29]  That's AZ6.
[00:49:30]  Yeah, and that's the southern part of the state, if I'm not mistaken.
[00:49:33]  It's a Dem seat.
[00:49:35]  It would have been, yeah.
[00:49:36]  But Juan is an establishment pick.
[00:49:38]  So, you know, there's a little bit of.
[00:49:40]  Whatever.
[00:49:40]  We need seats.
[00:49:41]  We need the majority right now.
[00:49:42]  100%.
[00:49:43]  I'm just sending subpoenas like frisbees.
[00:49:45]  As we kind of break it down, you know, as we do our post-mortem, which I don't want to call it that.
[00:49:50]  I mean, listen, this was not a red wave, but it wasn't.
[00:49:53]  I mean, if Blake pulls this off, this is a very positive result.
[00:49:59]  Look, really what we're seeing here is the tale of different countries, which is the Midwest sensibilities outside of Iowa and Ohio, abortion is a loser.
[00:50:06]  I'm sorry, it is.
[00:50:07]  I'm pro-life as it gets.
[00:50:08]  I speak at pro-life dinners.
[00:50:09]  I love pro-life.
[00:50:10]  I mean, you know how pro-life I am, right?
[00:50:12]  You're very pro-life.
[00:50:13]  I'm very pro-life.
[00:50:13]  Outspoken.
[00:50:14]  Nobody challenges your pro-life bonafe because they don't like what I'm going to say next, which is we need to have political power.
[00:50:19]  We need to win.
[00:50:19]  We need to figure out how to communicate about that.
[00:50:21]  You cannot govern too much beyond the political power that the people give you, right?
[00:50:26]  I mean, and what we found last night, I talked about this.
[00:50:28]  You got all down on me when I talked about it.
[00:50:30]  But the bottom line is that there's a lot of people in this country that have been fear-mongered to about the abortion issue.
[00:50:37]  A lot of Gen Z women came out because of that.
[00:50:40]  I mean, that's a human right and all of this stuff.
[00:50:42]  And it's like, well, no, listen, it's somebody else's life.
[00:50:45]  To use the analogy, you know, last night we wanted kind of like a touchdown.
[00:50:48]  It's like a field goal, right?
[00:50:49]  We still put points on the board, right?
[00:50:51]  Ronda Santis won by 20.
[00:50:52]  Pelosi's out.
[00:50:53]  Pelosi's going to be out.
[00:50:54]  We take the Senate.
[00:50:55]  And in some ways, I just want you to paint this, guys, for a second.
[00:50:58]  If it would have been an overwhelmingly red wave, let's pretend it was a 40-seat, the Rhinos would have had a lot more power.
[00:51:03]  I want you to break that.
[00:51:04]  This is not a popular argument, but I'm going to make it.
[00:51:07]  And I know people say, oh, Charlie, you're just trying to cope or finding silver lining.
[00:51:10]  Actually, not.
[00:51:11]  We actually probed this out with Matt Gates, remember?
[00:51:13]  And we got a lot of hate mail, that there is an argument to make that with a slimmer majority, the conservatives have more power.
[00:51:19]  And also, we have a mandate to improve the Republican Party.
[00:51:23]  When you have a night that's not as good, you know what it's like, Andrew?
[00:51:26]  It's where you are running, you play up against a really bad opponent and you win narrowly, and you're like, man, we should have crushed that team, but we still won.
[00:51:34]  And we almost feel like you lost, right?
[00:51:35]  Yep.
[00:51:36]  That's how this feels.
[00:51:37]  You're like, okay, we won, but we thought we were going to win 49-0 at halftime, and we went to double overtime.
[00:51:42]  Yeah.
[00:51:42]  Well, and listen, if you're looking across the map and you're looking for good news, let's look to New York.
[00:51:49]  New York was a place where we got some pickups.
[00:51:51]  Okay, listen.
[00:51:52]  I was looking at Illinois and I was saying, is there, I didn't expect to win Illinois.
[00:51:57]  Darren Bailey, God bless him.
[00:51:59]  We had him on the show.
[00:52:00]  If it was a wave, it could have happened.
[00:52:01]  Yeah, I mean, listen, I never thought that was going to happen, okay?
[00:52:06]  But what you see in New York, you lose hundreds of thousands of your conservative population to Florida, and yet a 70-30 deep blue state basically became a 60-40, if not like a 55-45.
[00:52:19]  I mean, you got Chuck Schumer right now losing with 90% of the vote, or winning rather, to Joe Pignon, 56-43.
[00:52:30]  That's, I mean, that's the House majority, or the Speaker, Senate majority leader, thank you.
[00:52:38]  That's the Senate majority leader winning his seat by, you know, a 13-point, I mean, that's 56 to 43.
[00:52:45]  That ain't much in a deep, deep, deep blue New York, right?
[00:52:49]  Well, Kathy Hochl, same story.
[00:52:51]  52 to 47.
[00:52:52]  That's super, super tight.
[00:52:54]  52 to 40.
[00:52:55]  Lee Zeldon fought, man.
[00:52:56]  That's a five-point race.
[00:52:57]  So just so we're clear, it's New York 22.
[00:52:59]  Less than 300,000 votes.
[00:53:00]  New York 22, New York 19, New York 17.
[00:53:02]  Long Island is great.
[00:53:03]  Lee Zeldon did heroes' work by making this a competitive race for Republicans up and down.
[00:53:09]  Which will get us the House majority.
[00:53:10]  You're absolutely right.
[00:53:11]  Maliatakis won.
[00:53:14]  New York showed up.
[00:53:15]  New York Patriots out there, God bless you.
[00:53:17]  I know it feels bad tonight, but honestly, these New York congressional races are going to give us the majority and give us the ability to investigate Fauci, to be able to impeach Garland, to be able to impeach Mayorkis.
[00:53:26]  That's a big deal, guys.
[00:53:28]  And Stefanik, obviously.
[00:53:29]  And then the big one is Maloney, right?
[00:53:39]  So Lawler, New York Times still has it outstanding, but Maloney has called to concede to Mike Lawler.
[00:53:46]  That's the head of the DCC, Driple C.
[00:53:49]  And Mike Lawler just beat him.
[00:53:50]  It's a big deal, man.
[00:53:51]  That's a really big deal.
[00:53:52]  That's a big story.
[00:53:54]  That's a really big story, okay?
[00:53:55]  So look, I just want to encourage our New York Patriots.
[00:53:58]  You guys played a role in saving the Republic, even though you lost the statewide race.
[00:54:02]  Showing up in big numbers, Maliotakis, all these people.
[00:54:06]  It's giving us the House majority.
[00:54:07]  New York 22nd is looking like it's going to go our way.
[00:54:11]  Brandon Williams, Republican over Francis Cannoli.
[00:54:15]  That's a Republican over Democrat.
[00:54:16]  That's 94% of the votes in.
[00:54:18]  It's 50.6 to 49.4.
[00:54:22]  Let's see here.
[00:54:23]  And I think that's an open seat or a new seat.
[00:54:29]  New York 23, Langworthy over Dela Pia.
[00:54:34]  Tenney over Holden and New York 24.
[00:54:37]  Those are all good.
[00:54:38]  Those are all good.
[00:54:39]  That's one's a new seat, and one's a pickup.
[00:54:43]  This is good.
[00:54:44]  I mean, just in the last couple hours, the projection for Republican and how much we're going to control in the House is getting better and better and better.
[00:54:51]  It's getting better.
[00:54:52]  It is.
[00:54:53]  Now, I really hope we can hold on to Arizona 1, which is just ridiculous with David Schweikert and Scottsdale.
[00:54:58]  I mean, that is just the most frustrating.
[00:54:59]  That should be an easy Republican seat.
[00:55:01]  It is just so frustrating.
[00:55:02]  Eli Crane, great.
[00:55:05]  This is only going to add to the vote total.
[00:55:06]  And by the way, so you say, Charlie, what's the difference?
[00:55:08]  You're going to have Jim Jordan chairing committees.
[00:55:11]  You're going to have Matt Gates on committees.
[00:55:13]  You're going to have us in the majority.
[00:55:15]  And you better believe we're going to have a mandate for investigations, okay?
[00:55:18]  And if we would have had a 40-seat majority, you would have had a lot more Chamber of Commerce corporate interests.
[00:55:25]  Yes, I would have, 40-seat majority, we would have found our own positives, but there's positives in all things.
[00:55:30]  And the positive in this one is that you're going to have a much more conservative House of Representatives.
[00:55:34]  Well, let's build that out after the break, because I think a lot of people are sort of wondering, what do you mean, Charlie?
[00:55:39]  How can you have less of a winning night and actually sort of put more power in the country?
[00:55:44]  Yeah, so for example, I mean, if we end up having a, we have a break.
[00:55:47]  That's right.
[00:55:47]  Do we have something we need to speak about?
[00:55:50]  Okay, I want to tell you guys about relief factor.com, 100% drug-free relief factor, knee pain, back pain, joint pain, elbow pain.
[00:55:55]  Check out relieffactor.com.
[00:55:57]  The 100% drug-free supplement very well might be the best solution for you.
[00:56:01]  I know a lot of people that are suffering from pain, and they say, Charlie, how do I get out of pain?
[00:56:05]  Well, look, Relief Factor could help you get out of pain, could help you live a flourishing and beautiful life.
[00:56:10]  So check it out right now, relieffactor.com.
[00:56:12]  That is relief factor.com.
[00:56:14]  The 100% drug-free supplement could be the best solution for you.
[00:56:18]  Knee pain, back pain, joint pain, elbow pain.
[00:56:20]  Check it out right now.
[00:56:21]  Relieffactor.com.
[00:56:22]  That is relief factor.com.
[00:56:25]  And I really appreciate all of you guys checking it out, relieffactor.com.
[00:56:29]  Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:56:30]  Don says, Charlie, once we have power, we should break up big counties.
[00:56:33]  Yes, like Maricopa County.
[00:56:35]  Clark County next.
[00:56:36]  Yeah, we've got to break up big counties.
[00:56:37]  It's incredibly important.
[00:56:39]  We will get more transparent election results.
[00:56:41]  We will get them quicker.
[00:56:42]  We're going to win more races in more ways than one.
[00:56:44]  I'm very, very confident of that.
[00:56:46]  So people seem very worried about what's happening with Lauren Bobert.
[00:56:51]  It's not looking good.
[00:56:52]  Yeah, Bobert's, I think.
[00:56:55]  That was a sleeper, man.
[00:56:56]  That's the biggest shock of the night.
[00:56:57]  Yeah, I think that's right.
[00:56:59]  I think that and Maloney.
[00:57:02]  Maloney's a huge shock for Temps.
[00:57:04]  It was like 10 points, right?
[00:57:06]  Let's see here.
[00:57:07]  Man, that's crazy.
[00:57:10]  Yeah, Lauren Bobert was not on a lot of people's radar.
[00:57:13]  Colorado went deep blue.
[00:57:15]  They've mastered mail-in voting and all the shenanigans that go alongside it.
[00:57:18]  Email is freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:57:43]  Welcome back, everybody.
[00:57:44]  Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:57:46]  There are some huge victories.
[00:57:47]  We're going to control the house.
[00:57:48]  We're going to control.
[00:57:49]  The Senate is completely in our ability to control.
[00:57:51]  As long as Nevada pulls through, Andrew.
[00:57:52]  As long as Nevada pulls through.
[00:57:54]  I mean, we're hearing from Laxalt's people directly, just text them during the show that they're outside of the margin of fraud and mail-ins.
[00:58:05]  They're feeling really, really good.
[00:58:07]  And you got to remember, there's a ton of rural.
[00:58:09]  Washoe still got about 35% of its vote, and it's going to skew Republican.
[00:58:14]  I'm feeling good about Washoe, but I'm going to be honest with you, that 100,000 vote mail-in is scary.
[00:58:21]  It's scary.
[00:58:22]  I mean, that's a ton of mail-ins.
[00:58:24]  Okay?
[00:58:24]  That's a ton of mail-ins.
[00:58:26]  That being said, I mean, there's 400,000 votes counted in Clark.
[00:58:30]  There's some other counties that still have votes left, right?
[00:58:33]  Oh, yeah.
[00:58:34]  Oh, yeah.
[00:58:35]  Lots of red counties still have votes left.
[00:58:38]  If we're going to look at it here, I'll pull it up right now.
[00:58:41]  So just to put it in perspective, well, so there's 500, get this.
[00:58:45]  There's 576, 577,000 votes that have already been counted in Clark County, okay?
[00:58:54]  Out of 577,000, Catherine Cortez-Masto is only, she's only netting 28,000 votes.
[00:59:05]  Really?
[00:59:06]  There's a net gain on 577,000, okay?
[00:59:09]  If you extrapolate that out, I mean, it's basically one-fourth of that.
[00:59:12]  She's looking at like gaining another like 7,000, 8,000.
[00:59:16]  Now, the question is, and that's not going to do anything for her.
[00:59:19]  The question is, are they going to skew much more than that, right?
[00:59:22]  Is it going to skew like 60-40 for her?
[00:59:25]  Is it going to skew 70-30?
[00:59:27]  You know, and are there shenanigans?
[00:59:29]  I mean, I get it.
[00:59:30]  You know, like we're not allowed to talk about this stuff.
[00:59:35]  But listen, yeah, the culinary unions, Harry Reid's, that's his neck of the woods.
[00:59:40]  He's notoriously corrupt, bad dude, corrupt business dealings, all of that stuff.
[00:59:46]  All right.
[00:59:46]  So, and actually, we're going to have Rich Barris joining us.
[00:59:49]  Rich is going to be really helpful on this.
[00:59:51]  Is he there?
[00:59:52]  Email us, everybody, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:59:54]  Do me a favor as we wait for Richard.
[00:59:56]  Yeah, we'll get Rich after the break.
[00:59:58]  Do me a favor, guys.
[01:00:00]  Open up your podcast application and type in Charlie Kirk Show and hit subscribe in the upper right-hand corner.
[01:00:05]  Look, last night was when you're heavily favored against an opponent.
[01:00:12]  You know what last night was?
[01:00:13]  It's when Georgia went to Missouri this last couple weeks ago, University of Georgia football team, and they end up winning, but they were favored by like 20 points, and they get nothing but negative press scrutiny afterwards.
[01:00:25]  Yeah, that's what it is.
[01:00:26]  It's like, okay, well, we won the game.
[01:00:27]  Like, we won the House.
[01:00:28]  We're going to win the Senate.
[01:00:29]  We're going to win a lot of these other states.
[01:00:32]  But everyone's like, well, why didn't you win by more?
[01:00:33]  Why didn't you win by halftime?
[01:00:35]  Why didn't you get your backup quarterback in?
[01:00:37]  Why weren't you able to punish them?
[01:00:39]  Like, you're right.
[01:00:40]  Last night should have been that.
[01:00:41]  I'll be very honest.
[01:00:42]  Last night, with gas prices, with inflation, with immigration, with Joe Biden being the most unpopular president ever, basically, since polling, this should have been a wave from See the Shining Sea.
[01:00:52]  And there's little pockets, but the industrial Midwest and the Northeast and parts of the Northwest, those kind of big three areas, they resisted it.
[01:01:02]  They wanted abortion and kind of that trans issues and Gen Z and TikTok more than...
[01:01:07]  I don't think the trans issue works against them.
[01:01:09]  I'll be really honest.
[01:01:10]  I mean, I was hearing from my friends in New York that they're just so fed up with the trans craziness stuff.
[01:01:15]  I think those are winning issues for conservatives.
[01:01:18]  The culture war stuff is, but abortion is not.
[01:01:22]  And I think, listen, I think it's one of those lived experience issues where everybody knows somebody that got accidentally pregnant or had a situation, right?
[01:01:30]  It's not right.
[01:01:32]  But I think it's just one of those things that hits real close to home.
[01:01:34]  It's very tangible.
[01:01:35]  It was a hidden Dobbs vote.
[01:01:36]  We did a whole podcast on it.
[01:01:37]  And boy, did I get some nasty emails?
[01:01:39]  Charlie, it doesn't exist.
[01:01:40]  I said, well, if it's hidden, how do you know if it's there or not?
[01:01:43]  Email us, freedom at charliekirk.com and subscribe to our podcast.
[01:01:46]  Rich Barris joins us in a second.
[01:02:00]  Welcome back, everybody.
[01:02:01]  Email me, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[01:02:03]  Thank you guys for emailing us and for all of your kind words of support.
[01:02:06]  Someone says, Charlie, you look tired.
[01:02:07]  Yeah, pal.
[01:02:08]  We were up till 4 o'clock in the morning.
[01:02:10]  Okay, and now we're streaming again just hours later.
[01:02:12]  Just like, you know, let's just call it like it is.
[01:02:15]  We have Rich Barris with us, right?
[01:02:18]  Yes?
[01:02:19]  Rich, what?
[01:02:20]  Okay, Rich, let's start with Nevada.
[01:02:22]  People are getting very nervous.
[01:02:23]  Adam Laxalt going to win?
[01:02:26]  You know, it is going to be very, very close.
[01:02:28]  Okay, we have bad audio for Rich.
[01:02:30]  Can we fix that, please, Rich?
[01:02:31]  I don't know what you're doing over there.
[01:02:33]  Sounds like you're swimming at the bottom of a fishbowl.
[01:02:39]  Okay, we'll try to get Rich back there.
[01:02:41]  Yeah, when Rich says that it's going to be very, very close in Nevada, that should make you nervous, Andrew.
[01:02:48]  I told you that 100,000 votes outstanding.
[01:02:50]  The question is, what is the waiting?
[01:02:52]  Is it waiting?
[01:02:52]  Is it late earlies?
[01:02:53]  Meaning, culinary unions, man.
[01:02:55]  Yeah, I was going to say.
[01:02:57]  So, I mean, the campaign's obviously going to present strength, right?
[01:03:01]  I mean, we were getting told from Herschel's team last night that they were going to win it without a runoff.
[01:03:05]  That's why I look at this.
[01:03:06]  Then they go down.
[01:03:08]  This is why people come to Arizona data because obviously I want people to win, but we just happen to know the data so well.
[01:03:15]  Yep.
[01:03:16]  So well.
[01:03:16]  And other places do not.
[01:03:18]  Do we have Rich Barris back or is he still retabulating?
[01:03:21]  Recalibrating, I should say.
[01:03:23]  Rich is Rich has been having a heck of an AV adventure the last 24 hours.
[01:03:29]  The poor guy, email me.

=== Nevada Vote Estimates Tighten (02:34) ===

[01:03:32]  He's good.
[01:03:32]  Did you say?
[01:03:34]  All right, Rich, how are we doing?
[01:03:35]  Good.
[01:03:35]  There it is.
[01:03:36]  Yeah, you can hear me better now, right?
[01:03:37]  Rich, are we going to win Nevada?
[01:03:40]  Yeah, look, yeah, and I will say it again, but it's true.
[01:03:42]  It's going to be very, very close.
[01:03:44]  Um, because uh, they're doing what they need to do to win, though.
[01:03:48]  They are, which is because there is some vote out that's not just them vote.
[01:03:53]  Uh, you need to win Washoe County to help you pad.
[01:03:56]  Of course, the rurals help you pad, but that's not the sum total of it.
[01:04:00]  Uh, Laxalt at the end of the day did carry Washoe now.
[01:04:03]  He's up by almost four points, 3.2.
[01:04:07]  That's what you got to do.
[01:04:08]  And if the vote in Clark County, he's got it down to about four.
[01:04:13]  And again, that's what you have to do because he can lose it by like you know, nine, close to nine.
[01:04:18]  That's what that net swing will do, and he'll still win.
[01:04:22]  The vote that's out in Clark, the hundred thousand ballots that's out, it's not like, well, in 2020, it was a bunch of Democrats just basically trying to ballot harvest and get ballots to arrive two weeks later.
[01:04:34]  They only have a four-week four-day thing, they shorten this period.
[01:04:38]  So, the estimate of 100, we really don't know.
[01:04:40]  The estimate of 100 is based on how much could they do in four days.
[01:04:45]  The thing is, I don't think it's going to be heavily, heavily as Democratic as some people expect.
[01:04:50]  What do we think?
[01:04:51]  Like 400 ballots?
[01:04:53]  I mean, look, the 400,000 ballots that were first dropped in Clark County that were all the early mail-in period that only netted Democrats about 40,000 votes.
[01:05:04]  So, it would be a 3,000-vote margin for Laxalt if they did better than that, you know, marginally better.
[01:05:12]  Let's say they do, you know, about by a factor of half.
[01:05:16]  Laxalt would still hold on by about 3,000 votes.
[01:05:19]  Close, close enough for Masto to ask for a runoff.
[01:05:22]  I mean, are you taking into account all the rurals and Washoe running up a few thousand more in this direction?
[01:05:29]  And Lion County, Douglas, there's still votes out in Douglas and Lion.
[01:05:34]  Yeah, Douglas County's got a lot of people in it.
[01:05:37]  I mean, not obviously what Washoe or Clark has, but there's that's 71% of the vote.
[01:05:41]  That's 6631.
[01:05:43]  That's going to keep breaking.
[01:05:44]  I told you last night, Rich, Lion was going to be 70-30%.
[01:05:46]  It's breaking even more.
[01:05:47]  74.22.
[01:05:48]  It is, yeah.
[01:05:49]  And that's only 60% of the vote.
[01:05:50]  And that's, I mean, that's cowboy country.
[01:05:52]  I know those people.
[01:05:53]  Those are those are there.
[01:05:54]  There will be votes that continue to come in to pad.
[01:05:57]  And I think that finally, Republicans in some of these states got hit, got wise, gentlemen, and are like, no, I'll show you mine if you show me yours.

=== Pima County Margin Shrinks (07:32) ===

[01:06:06]  We're keeping our votes back.
[01:06:07]  Good.
[01:06:08]  Hold them back.
[01:06:09]  Good.
[01:06:09]  Hold them.
[01:06:11]  Make them play the first hand.
[01:06:12]  That's what we got to do.
[01:06:13]  We shouldn't report early.
[01:06:14]  We should hold back our cards.
[01:06:17]  Damn right.
[01:06:17]  They need to start mandating.
[01:06:18]  The father did it to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
[01:06:21]  So did Westmoreland and Pennsylvania.
[01:06:23]  I didn't remember.
[01:06:23]  They did it on purpose.
[01:06:24]  Did they really?
[01:06:25]  Yeah.
[01:06:26]  Yeah, absolutely.
[01:06:26]  They were like this.
[01:06:28]  We got to work more with Rich.
[01:06:29]  What was he called?
[01:06:31]  What was that guy on the five?
[01:06:33]  You remember the old devil?
[01:06:34]  Bob Beckley.
[01:06:37]  Do you remember that clip of him from 2010 or whatever?
[01:06:41]  He's like, yeah, we just go find the ballots we need.
[01:06:42]  And we don't know.
[01:06:43]  No, no, he said, oh, yeah, they're holding their votes back.
[01:06:46]  I used to run the elections down in Northern Virginia.
[01:06:48]  We always held our votes back.
[01:06:50]  I mean, it's transparent.
[01:06:52]  I mean, you know, because, and that's what I miss about that era, right?
[01:06:57]  Right, Rich?
[01:06:58]  It was like people back then were kind of like open about the fact that you know there was games being played and he's like yeah we held our votes back you know what I mean and now Andrew, now you seriously have people like Larry Sabado from the Crystal Ball who pretend like none of this happens, you know, and he's he's a total fraud.
[01:07:16]  Of course, he knows it happens.
[01:07:18]  He's from that area, he works at the University of Virginia.
[01:07:21]  Bob Beckle, uh, that night, I will never forget that night.
[01:07:24]  You know, but poor, I mean, look, it's not, I don't want to mock the guy's, you know, problems and suffering.
[01:07:30]  Uh, but you know, Bob has to get to a break.
[01:07:32]  I'm sorry, Rich, you got to tell the story after the break.
[01:07:34]  Let it roll.
[01:07:35]  We got a hard radio break.
[01:07:36]  We'll be right back in a second.
[01:07:37]  Everybody email me your thoughts directly, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[01:08:06]  Rich, welcome back.
[01:08:08]  Sorry about that.
[01:08:08]  Rich, we got five minutes here, then another break.
[01:08:10]  Rich, walk our audience through what you were saying.
[01:08:13]  Yeah, uh, Bob Beckle, uh, Andrew was bringing up.
[01:08:16]  I missed it ever too when people were just honest.
[01:08:19]  And Bob had some, you know, substance issues.
[01:08:21]  He was on the five that night, and he was like, Look, I've worked in Fairfax County for years.
[01:08:27]  We're doing this on purpose.
[01:08:28]  So, while good old Ed Gillespie's giving Mark Warner a ride, the folks in Fairfax are gonna count and they're gonna see how many votes Mark Warner needs, and we're gonna get him there.
[01:08:37]  That's what he said.
[01:08:38]  Um, that was probably one of the most hilarious live moments.
[01:08:42]  I think I've seen that clip where you said how cavalier he said it was the best part of it.
[01:08:48]  He's like, Yeah, we just bring in the like, what are you talking about?
[01:08:51]  Like, we're Democrats, that's what we do.
[01:08:53]  Yeah, we have counting, yeah.
[01:08:55]  We know, we gotta know how much we need before we can report.
[01:08:58]  Come on now, and by the way, that all gets you in trouble.
[01:09:00]  Like, we're probably gonna get flagged by the election integrity unit on like social media or whatever.
[01:09:04]  And it's like, we're gonna play the clip, and we're gonna prove to you exactly what we're talking about because this is real stuff.
[01:09:11]  By the way, I just laugh, Rich.
[01:09:12]  People are so behind all of a sudden.
[01:09:13]  They're like, oh, wow, latest numbers out of Maricopa County.
[01:09:15]  We had the numbers like an hour and a half ago, pals.
[01:09:17]  Okay, see, do you want anything out of it?
[01:09:18]  Terry Lake is going to win.
[01:09:20]  It's going to be kind of comfortable.
[01:09:21]  Marketing is going to win.
[01:09:25]  120,000.
[01:09:25]  I mean, guys, I hate to tell everybody.
[01:09:28]  This is on, there's nothing Katie Hobbs can do about this.
[01:09:31]  She's done.
[01:09:31]  She's finished.
[01:09:32]  And, you know, the Blake Masters do it by a half a point to a point.
[01:09:38]  So I mean, I see a very clear path for Blake.
[01:09:42]  If you said, Charlie, would you rather be in the Blake Masters camp or the Mark Kelly camp?
[01:09:45]  I'd rather be in the Blake Masters camp.
[01:09:46]  I'd rather be in the camp.
[01:09:48]  Yeah, absolutely.
[01:09:49]  Absolutely.
[01:09:49]  We're talking about 700, 645,000 to 700,000 ballots yet to be counted.
[01:09:54]  And get this, Rich.
[01:09:56]  So you know Arizona pretty well.
[01:09:58]  Do you know that they currently have Blake Masters losing Pima County by 28 points?
[01:10:03]  They haven't counted election day votes yet in Pima or Coconino.
[01:10:06]  And we had, yep, in our polling, Charlie, and it's going to happen.
[01:10:11]  I'm comfortable that I'm right because I can see what Lake is doing.
[01:10:14]  She's at only 38.
[01:10:16]  She's going to go to like 43.
[01:10:18]  Yep.
[01:10:18]  And he's going to go to maybe 40 or 41.
[01:10:20]  And that's going to be what he needs to be able to, you know, it's the difference between a three or four point win and the difference between a half a point, you know, a one and a half point win.
[01:10:29]  What does that translate into rob votes, Rich?
[01:10:32]  Right now, he's down by about 70,000 in Pima, so he needs to tighten it by about, you know, 10 to 15, depending on how much more there is.
[01:10:42]  10 to 15 in that county alone.
[01:10:45]  So we ran the numbers, Rich.
[01:10:46]  Yeah.
[01:10:46]  Go ahead.
[01:10:47]  Yeah.
[01:10:48]  I was just going to say that look at the dump from Pima last night.
[01:10:52]  They won that dump and they won it pretty significantly.
[01:10:55]  It comes down at this point that Democrats, their votes are counted.
[01:10:59]  And yes, they have some votes out there, but they're always going to be on the opposite side of the margins.
[01:11:04]  And last night when I left you guys, the dump that I was talking about was the 30,000, not the 100,000, the 30,000 ballot dump that came from Maricopa was about 32,000.
[01:11:16]  And that was the remaining parts of Maricopa that are better for Democrats.
[01:11:21]  They lost it by 35 points or 31, excuse me.
[01:11:24]  So, and they, meaning Democrats, they lost it by 31 points.
[01:11:27]  So now we're just down to voting behavior and the difference in voters by behavior.
[01:11:31]  The Democrats that got margins that benefited them, it came in that early vote dump.
[01:11:37]  The election day and the votes that were put into the draw, which are not all counted as I understand it, and the votes that were dropped off on election day.
[01:11:46]  Charlie, you know it.
[01:11:47]  We've been talking about this, guys.
[01:11:49]  That vote is going to go heavily, heavily Republican.
[01:11:53]  And you know what?
[01:11:55]  I can actually pull up my handy dandy exit here because we asked these people, you know, how are you going to vote?
[01:12:04]  And then if you vote on elect you know on election day, by drop off, I mean, it's a huge margin.
[01:12:10]  I got to sign in again.
[01:12:11]  I guess it locked me out, but and I can as we're talking.
[01:12:14]  And maybe I'll bring it to you on the next break.
[01:12:15]  I don't know how much time we have.
[01:12:16]  Well, we got a minute.
[01:12:17]  We got a minute until we go back.
[01:12:18]  Yeah.
[01:12:20]  And we were right about the election day margin.
[01:12:22]  And I was getting a little concerned.
[01:12:23]  Maybe I'm wrong about how big that margin is because the election day was like 50 points in some places.
[01:12:30]  But guess what?
[01:12:30]  It was 51 last night.
[01:12:33]  So I'm pretty confident I'm right about how these election day hand-dropped mail ballots are going to go.
[01:12:39]  And it's not, Democrats don't have any votes to win here.
[01:12:43]  Yeah.
[01:12:44]  I mean, every single new drop should be trending in our way.
[01:12:48]  And Rich, and we can save this for radio, but we did this early in the morning.
[01:12:53]  Maricopa alone, ballots outstanding.
[01:12:56]  We're looking at like between like 85 and 92,000 net gain for Kerry and Blake, roughly.
[01:13:02]  Kerry outperformed them.
[01:13:04]  Yes.
[01:13:04]  That's Maricopa alone.
[01:13:05]  He's down 90,000.
[01:13:08]  So he's going to make it up in Maricopa alone.
[01:13:11]  Then there's Yava Pie.
[01:13:13]  And what comes in from Pima is going to be better for Democrats, but it's still going to be a loss.
[01:13:19]  They're not going to win them.
[01:13:20]  Yeah, we're just coming back to Radio Richard.
[01:13:28]  Learn more in three hours than four years at a woke university.
[01:13:32]  And it's free.
[01:13:34]  The Charlie Kirk Show.
[01:13:35]  So we're here with Richard Barris.
[01:13:37]  Richard, just Rich, stay right there.

=== Republicans Win Non-Maricopa Areas (09:53) ===

[01:13:38]  I want to tell everybody about preparewithkirk.com.
[01:13:41]  Look, if things start to fall apart, you guys have got to be able to have the emergency preparedness food that you need to survive.
[01:13:47]  You are nine meals away from anarchy.
[01:13:50]  That's right.
[01:13:50]  Nine meals away from anarchy.
[01:13:52]  So you have to make sure you have the emergency preparedness food.
[01:13:54]  Benny, are you prepared in case something happens?
[01:13:56]  Yes.
[01:13:56]  You are?
[01:13:57]  Yes, I am.
[01:13:58]  You went to preparewithkirk.com.
[01:14:00]  I did.
[01:14:00]  There you go.
[01:14:01]  It's incredible.
[01:14:02]  And you have the alligator that we love to eat in Florida.
[01:14:05]  I have it.
[01:14:06]  It is actually an amazing anarchist.
[01:14:07]  It's a great box.
[01:14:09]  Store it easily in the shed when you need it.
[01:14:13]  20-year shelf life.
[01:14:14]  My wife looked at me like I was crazy.
[01:14:16]  I was like, we need to buy a bunch of like perishable food and just put it in a giant tub up in the attic.
[01:14:20]  And so that's what we've done.
[01:14:21]  No, you don't even need to do that.
[01:14:22]  You just buy it from my Patriot supply.
[01:14:23]  They send it to you in a giant tub and then it's just there.
[01:14:25]  That is preparewithkirk.com, preparewithkirk.com.
[01:14:29]  Check it out right now.
[01:14:31]  So Rich Barris is here, People Pundits Daily and Big Data Polls.
[01:14:35]  All right, Rich, looks like we're going to a Georgia runoff.
[01:14:37]  What does that mean?
[01:14:41]  In the history of Georgia runoffs, if an incumbent does not make it during that first round, they lose.
[01:14:46]  And somebody in during our stream, we had our little pay-per-view.
[01:14:49]  It was great going in and out with you guys and jumped on after.
[01:14:52]  They brought up Shambliss.
[01:14:53]  And that is true.
[01:14:54]  Shambliss was forced to a runoff in the 08 election, but it's a bit of an outlier.
[01:15:00]  And it's not a bit.
[01:15:01]  Is an outlier because Shambliss was dealing with the Obama surge, the unheard of historic Obama surge.
[01:15:09]  And enough African-American voters came out to drag him just below 50.
[01:15:14]  But then the election, then following week, you know, the Obama hysteria was not there.
[01:15:19]  So he was able to win.
[01:15:20]  But every other incumbent in modern history goes down in flames.
[01:15:24]  More Knox voters, they had...
[01:15:27]  Look, he didn't really win because of high, high black African-American turnout.
[01:15:32]  That's not what happened.
[01:15:34]  Walker did worse than Kemp among educated people in the Atlanta suburbs.
[01:15:38]  So his voters will definitely be more juiced to grab control of that Senate because once Blake wins, they're going to say, oh, wow, we can do this.
[01:15:46]  Let's get Walker over the finish line.
[01:15:49]  And I'm again, let me go to that, Charlie.
[01:15:52]  These ballots that we're talking about, these people that dropped it off on election day, we got them at, it's a big sample.
[01:15:59]  We got them breaking 64.5 to 34.1 for Mark Kelly.
[01:16:10]  For Kerry Lake, it's about a point and a half, a couple points higher.
[01:16:16]  So Katie Hobbs does about a point and a half better than, I mean, a point and a half worse than Mark Kelly, but it's still a huge margin.
[01:16:24]  So what tranche of votes is that that breaks 64.5, 34.1?
[01:16:28]  These are the people who dropped it off on election day.
[01:16:31]  It's about a 32-point margin.
[01:16:35]  That's exactly on my clip.
[01:16:37]  Yeah, that's terrific.
[01:16:38]  Well, how many votes statewide do you think there are that would fall?
[01:16:42]  Is that just Maricopa?
[01:16:44]  No, that's every, well, this is the, that's this survey, this is the entire state in Maricopa.
[01:16:50]  Actually, yeah, Republicans did hair better than rest of state because PEM is like 17%.
[01:16:58]  Yeah.
[01:16:58]  So when you take Maricopa out, it drags it down a little bit.
[01:17:01]  So we're being told, Rich, that there's 275 of those election days.
[01:17:06]  But we were low, Charlie, talking yesterday.
[01:17:09]  I remember.
[01:17:09]  I was out of orbital Khalif.
[01:17:11]  He was like, there's got to be at least 225,000.
[01:17:14]  Well, remember, Rich, I said at least one to one, maybe 1.1 to 1.
[01:17:18]  Remember, I called you.
[01:17:20]  I said, if we're at 1 to 1, we're cooking with gas.
[01:17:22]  Look, it is possible, okay?
[01:17:24]  It is possible in politics.
[01:17:26]  You have to kind of show the window.
[01:17:28]  It is possible when it's all sudden and done, Kerry Lake wins by 175,000 votes.
[01:17:32]  I don't think that's right.
[01:17:34]  I mean, that's there.
[01:17:35]  Oh, yeah.
[01:17:35]  If that's the case, Blake Masters wins by 30,000 votes.
[01:17:38]  Now, it's also possible.
[01:17:40]  The worst case scenario, like everything falls apart and these ballots aren't what we think they are.
[01:17:44]  And people are running all over the place and Steven Richard is like shredding ballots or whatever, which we're kidding about.
[01:17:52]  Carrie Lake wins by 80,000 votes.
[01:17:54]  That's like her basement, right?
[01:17:55]  Rich?
[01:17:55]  Her basement is winning by 80,000 votes.
[01:17:57]  And I just have to say that.
[01:17:58]  Yeah, I think we're going to see some holes get blown here in that race real soon, guys, when they start dropping later tonight, especially 7 p.m.
[01:18:06]  We're being told.
[01:18:07]  12,000 votes away right now.
[01:18:09]  That last chunk, that last chunk took 42,000 lead off.
[01:18:15]  Katie Hobbs' mark.
[01:18:16]  I mean, it was like, goodbye.
[01:18:18]  And that first dump of 100K was just, if people didn't see it when that 100K came down, then I don't know.
[01:18:26]  They're blind.
[01:18:27]  It's just shocking to me.
[01:18:28]  I mean, I'm looking at the prediction markets, how dumb people are.
[01:18:31]  It's crazy.
[01:18:32]  I mean, they don't, this is a 50-50 race between Mark Kelly and Blake Masters.
[01:18:37]  And so the prediction markets have Blake Mark Kelly at 85%.
[01:18:40]  I'm like, and by the way, they have Cortez Masto at the favorite in the betting markets.
[01:18:46]  Again, I'm not a big betting market guy, but sometimes insiders place a lot of bets there.
[01:18:50]  I just think it's kind of silly, to be honest.
[01:18:53]  Well, you know why that is, though, guys?
[01:18:58]  They're thinking that Clark County is going to be Clark County as they always are.
[01:19:01]  And I don't want to get you in trouble, but they're thinking that Democrats are going to do whatever they got to do in Clark County.
[01:19:06]  That's that's that's it.
[01:19:08]  Yeah, they're Vegas, they're Vegas guys.
[01:19:10]  All right, Rich, I want to I want to ask about some house races.
[01:19:13]  Lauren Bobert, did you have that one in your on your bingo card?
[01:19:17]  Uh, you know, for tonight before going in, uh, no.
[01:19:20]  And in general, I got to tell you, um, our generic ballot is going to be dead on.
[01:19:27]  And I was just speaking to a bunch of people today saying, like, how could this happen on, you know, 20 seats?
[01:19:33]  How could this happen if you were right with your Republican plus like, you know, five?
[01:19:37]  Because the vote will shrink.
[01:19:38]  It's like six point something now.
[01:19:40]  It will shrink, but we're going to be dead on.
[01:19:42]  There, again, is something that jumps right out at me, Charlie.
[01:19:46]  If you look at the ideology, number one, it confirms what I'm about to say, which is it's very moderate.
[01:19:54]  It's a little bit more liberal than a typical midterm, even though it's more, even though it's slightly more Republican.
[01:19:59]  And also, it's not very conservative.
[01:20:02]  It's only 36% conservative.
[01:20:04]  Wherein, for instance, in Virginia, it was 41%.
[01:20:06]  It was the highest percent in 2021 for the gubernatorial election that we had seen for Virginia in like 15, 20 years.
[01:20:14]  And then that, when I see that, it makes me jump right down to education.
[01:20:18]  And I hate to say it, but I feel like Republicans won back.
[01:20:24]  They did very well.
[01:20:25]  They didn't win four-year degrees, but they did very well with them.
[01:20:28]  And they did very well with post-grads, which I took a beating for.
[01:20:32]  I had post-grads voting about 42% Republican.
[01:20:36]  They did vote 42% Republican.
[01:20:38]  The problem people like Robert Barnes and I have been trying to explain to people is that the working class vote is a more efficient vote.
[01:20:45]  And if you look at non-college, they did not win them by that much.
[01:20:48]  Democrats got to close to Obama-like margins.
[01:20:51]  Why?
[01:20:52]  Because Trump, when he wins the non-college vote, he wins non-college whites by like 30-something points.
[01:20:58]  He wins non-college minorities too.
[01:21:01]  So this is the, they did not.
[01:21:03]  They lost them.
[01:21:05]  So I feel like in their attempt to win back the educated voter or, you know, what is the media all the time?
[01:21:13]  The educated suburbs.
[01:21:15]  I feel like they sacrificed some of the working class.
[01:21:17]  So let me know.
[01:21:18]  I really do.
[01:21:18]  There's going to be a lot of time for me to go over this.
[01:21:20]  I got to pour over the data.
[01:21:21]  You know, it's been day one, but that's the one that's feeling.
[01:21:25]  This one's stat.
[01:21:25]  Married men broke Republican by 20 points.
[01:21:29]  Married women broke Republican by 14 points.
[01:21:32]  So families are plus like 16 Republican.
[01:21:35]  Unmarried men broke Republican by seven points, but unmarried women broke Democrat by 37 points.
[01:21:42]  There you go.
[01:21:42]  It is the tyranny of unmarried cat women that are really, they're miserable people.
[01:21:47]  And they have college degrees.
[01:21:49]  Well, and I think, Rich, what you're seeing in that is the Dobbs, the hidden Dobbs vote.
[01:21:54]  I mean, I think that pushed that pushed that particular demo out.
[01:21:58]  I don't know, Andrew.
[01:21:59]  No, they did better with these groups all around.
[01:22:02]  I don't think that's it because they're not getting all of these compared to 2020, 2018, and even, yeah, they did better with them.
[01:22:11]  You know, so unmarried women are five points more Democrat than in 2020.
[01:22:17]  So they became more Democrat since 2020.
[01:22:21]  That's the reason.
[01:22:25]  That's not a hidden Dobbs.
[01:22:26]  That's not a swing.
[01:22:27]  That's because of who showed up.
[01:22:29]  There weren't enough non-college of them.
[01:22:31]  If you break it down by gender, you'll see that.
[01:22:34]  That's why you can get Virginia 10 really close within five.
[01:22:38]  And Wexton barely holds on against Hung Cow in a Biden plus 20 district.
[01:22:44]  But yet Abigail Spanberger holds on in seven because Spanberger's district is more non-college.
[01:22:49]  They just didn't show.
[01:22:52]  I'm saying self-identified Republicans who showed up were more educated than the Republican voter in general.
[01:23:00]  And where they were lacking, and God, I know some people are going to be like, oh my God.
[01:23:06]  Where they were lacking was the Trump voter.
[01:23:08]  It is part of the Trump vote.
[01:23:11]  Are you really going there, Rich?
[01:23:13]  I am going there because it's true.
[01:23:15]  It's Rich.
[01:23:16]  Are you saying that if Trump would have announced on Saturday before election day that you because he didn't, honestly?
[01:23:25]  And maybe there's, I'm not doing this to like, you know, jump on the Trump train.
[01:23:28]  Maybe you can even blame Trump for not doing enough for these people.

=== Leadership Blamed For Trump Loss (05:51) ===

[01:23:31]  I don't know, you know, but I'm just saying.
[01:23:33]  We're getting a lot of people talking about that, Rich.
[01:23:35]  We got a lot of emails coming in saying, you know, Trump didn't spend enough money.
[01:23:39]  He sat on his money.
[01:23:40]  He didn't come out.
[01:23:41]  And it's like, you know, a lot of people are saying he did just enough to kind of skirt responsibility either way.
[01:23:46]  I mean, I think that's, you know, probably going too far.
[01:23:49]  And honestly, Andrew, what do you think?
[01:23:50]  Because I got to tell you, I think I kind of lean that way.
[01:23:53]  I do.
[01:23:54]  I had made it very clear to people who asked me and that I knew it would get around that he was going to have to do this.
[01:24:02]  That Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, I would love to tell you guys a story to give an example of one candidate that lost.
[01:24:09]  And I went to them and told them, just like in 18, if you want to win the Senate, if you're going to run for president again in 2024, then you're going to need a Republican Congress with allies, not like a Paul Ryan Congress, not like a Mitch McConnell Congress.
[01:24:23]  You're going to need allies.
[01:24:24]  And if you want them, you better do everything you did in 2018 to make these candidates make sure they get over the finish line.
[01:24:31]  They did not do that.
[01:24:31]  And they did not.
[01:24:33]  And I don't know how much time we have in this segment, but I would love to share one candidate story.
[01:24:39]  And I will explain to you why leadership screwed this up.
[01:24:43]  Leadership.
[01:24:44]  And it does, Charlie, it overlaps with the abortion thing you're talking about because they are incompetent when it comes to dealing with the issue of abortion.
[01:24:52]  Can I get how much time do we have?
[01:24:54]  Can I roll in the next one?
[01:24:55]  One minute.
[01:24:55]  Go ahead.
[01:24:55]  And then the next segment.
[01:24:56]  Yeah, we got a next segment.
[01:24:58]  Okay, I polled for John Gibbs during the primary.
[01:25:01]  Incredibly difficult to defeat Peter Mayer, whether you think he was vulnerable or not.
[01:25:04]  He's a household name.
[01:25:05]  Kevin McCarthy, weeks and weeks go by after that primary, never calls John Gibbs, never calls him.
[01:25:11]  Eventually, when they do call, they say, you got to fire your team and bring in all of our DC consultant people.
[01:25:16]  And they did.
[01:25:17]  And I understood because he needed money and support.
[01:25:20]  But then when abortion started to hurt his unfavorable, his very unfavorable ratings, they were driving up his image with these ads.
[01:25:26]  The consultants told him, don't say anything.
[01:25:28]  Ignore it.
[01:25:28]  Ignore it.
[01:25:29]  And I kept telling him, do not ignore it.
[01:25:31]  They spent, go after them.
[01:25:33]  Their Democratic position is an unpopular position on abortion.
[01:25:37]  They did not.
[01:25:38]  They listened to the consultants.
[01:25:40]  His unfavorables went up and he went down last night.
[01:25:42]  Bottom line is they spent a ton of money talking about crime, which was 2% of the top issue.
[01:25:49]  I mean, if you 2% of voters pick crime as their top issue, it was their strategy overall that the NRCC told these candidates to do.
[01:25:58]  It was unnatural for them and they went down because of it.
[01:26:02]  Stay right there, Rich.
[01:26:03]  You're doing a great job.
[01:26:04]  Thank you.
[01:26:04]  And also, check out People's Pundits Daily, everybody, in big data polls.
[01:26:07]  Stay right there.
[01:26:08]  Subscribe to his stuff.
[01:26:09]  Support Rich.
[01:26:10]  He's a great guy.
[01:26:11]  He's been really generous with his time.
[01:26:12]  Check out People Pundit Daily, right?
[01:26:15]  Yep.
[01:26:15]  And also big data polls.
[01:26:17]  Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
[01:26:19]  I want to tell you guys about RoughGreens, r-u-f-f-greens.com.
[01:26:23]  Rough greens is an amazing product.
[01:26:24]  Benny, do you have a dog?
[01:26:26]  I don't.
[01:26:27]  I have kids.
[01:26:28]  Do you have a dog, Andrew?
[01:26:29]  Nope.
[01:26:30]  I have kids too.
[01:26:31]  Okay.
[01:26:31]  But we love dogs.
[01:26:32]  Maybe one day you would get a dog.
[01:26:34]  And if you do, you give them the free trial from Rough Greens.
[01:26:36]  It has barley grass, blackberry, blueberry, broccoli, flaxseed, kale, kelp, mushroom, papaya, parsley.
[01:26:41]  Do you eat this well, Benny?
[01:26:42]  I don't think so.
[01:26:43]  It's really eating great.
[01:26:44]  Roughgreens.com, your dog can eat better than you.
[01:26:47]  And it is amazing.
[01:26:48]  Free jumpstart trial.
[01:26:49]  Try Rough Greens free today.
[01:26:51]  Dogs love it.
[01:26:52]  Lifelong benefits.
[01:26:53]  Just add a scoop and add a nutrition.
[01:26:55]  Roughgreens.com, R-U-F-Greens.com.
[01:26:57]  Andrew, really quick.
[01:26:57]  Charlie, when you put this on your dog's food, I've seen your dog just like wolf set up.
[01:27:03]  That's right.
[01:27:05]  This is a true story.
[01:27:06]  Firsthound at kuffgreens.com, r-u-f-f-greens.com.
[01:27:10]  Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
[01:27:11]  We are going to keep talking.
[01:27:12]  Rich, are you really bashing on leadership?
[01:27:14]  You got two minutes before a break.
[01:27:15]  What do you mean by that?
[01:27:17]  I've been telling people for a long time, if the Republican Party wants to become the party that they can become, which is one that wins a generic ballot by three or more and crushes Democrats nationwide, they have got to get rid of Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy.
[01:27:29]  These people are not, they're not smart.
[01:27:32]  Nobody, everyone points to their ability to raise money.
[01:27:35]  Anyone in that position can raise money.
[01:27:38]  I got news for everybody.
[01:27:40]  And by the way, who are they raising money from?
[01:27:42]  If you go through Kevin McCarthy's financials right now, you're going to find Big Pharma and you're going to find Silicon Valley.
[01:27:47]  Is that representative of you?
[01:27:49]  It's not.
[01:27:50]  If you go through Mitch McConnell's best friend, Rolodex, you're going to find Beijing all over it.
[01:27:54]  Is that representative of you?
[01:27:56]  It is not.
[01:27:57]  They have got to go.
[01:27:58]  They work against you.
[01:28:00]  They work against you.
[01:28:02]  The Charlie Kirk show.
[01:28:04]  Now we're back with Rev. So, okay, keep going, Rich.
[01:28:07]  We got all these breaks of different places.
[01:28:08]  I know.
[01:28:09]  You have quite the clock that you have figured out.
[01:28:11]  It's like landing on Mars.
[01:28:13]  It's like the synchronicity.
[01:28:16]  Yeah.
[01:28:16]  That's the word for you today, right?
[01:28:17]  Cool.
[01:28:17]  Cool.
[01:28:18]  Man, what a guy.
[01:28:19]  Yeah, is something.
[01:28:20]  Rich, continue one minute, and then we got to welcome back radio.
[01:28:24]  So, yeah, I mean, when it comes down to it, guys, this is another example of them dropping the ball.
[01:28:31]  And, you know, we're going to help you.
[01:28:32]  We're not going to help you.
[01:28:33]  We're going to get in.
[01:28:34]  We're going to get out.
[01:28:34]  We're going to spend.
[01:28:35]  We're not going to spend.
[01:28:36]  You're on board with us.
[01:28:37]  You're not.
[01:28:38]  RGA is another major problem, all right?
[01:28:41]  Doug Doosie may be the face of the RGA, but he doesn't run it.
[01:28:44]  The Rickets run it.
[01:28:45]  When Doug Mastriano went to go and sit down with young boy Rickett, they had a great conversation.
[01:28:50]  And then after it, they looked right at Doug Mastriano and he said, sorry, Doug, but you're just not my kind of guy.
[01:28:55]  We're not going to support you.
[01:28:56]  The reason why they didn't is because they didn't want Doug to be the governor of Pennsylvania if and when Donald Trump ran again.
[01:29:02]  They wanted to make sure, for the love of God, Donald Trump doesn't win the Keystone State and get to Pennsylvania Avenue again.
[01:29:09]  It's time for Republican voters to wake up and realize that their so-called leadership is not their friend.
[01:29:14]  Gotta take a risk.
[01:29:15]  These are their enemies.
[01:29:16]  That was real.
[01:29:17]  That was succinct.
[01:29:18]  Rich, tell people how to find you.
[01:29:21]  Peoplespundant.locals.com.

=== RGA Rejects Doug Mastriano (03:56) ===

[01:29:23]  And then that'll show them everything.
[01:29:24]  You know, so we got all of the live result maps, which finally started to work.
[01:29:29]  And I apologize for all of that yesterday.
[01:29:31]  The API from Decision Desk just broke and broke everything.
[01:29:35]  It got fixed almost like around two o'clock in the morning.
[01:29:38]  I mean, it was as frustrating to me as it was to everybody else.
[01:29:42]  But everything with big data polls up there, everything with the websites up there.
[01:29:48]  I got to tell you, you know, for all the people that support the work we do, Charlie, you know, there are some that, you know, we had Oz up a little bit.
[01:29:55]  He lost.
[01:29:56]  We had Johnson up by about three.
[01:29:59]  He won, you know, but it was closer than we thought.
[01:30:01]  But in general, we did good work.
[01:30:03]  We nailed Blake Masters by seven.
[01:30:05]  That looks like we nailed it perfectly, dead on.
[01:30:08]  But, and it looks like in Nevada, we're going to be pretty close to right as well.
[01:30:12]  So, or within the sampling era.
[01:30:15]  So all the people that support the work we do, we couldn't do it without you.
[01:30:18]  And we really, really appreciate all of it.
[01:30:20]  Generic ballot's going to be dead on.
[01:30:23]  It's going to be dead on, gentlemen.
[01:30:24]  I'm really stoked about that, but it's a mystery.
[01:30:27]  Anybody, if you would have asked anybody if Republicans were leading in the House vote by six, which is more than our generic ballot, but if they were leading by six on Wednesday morning, how bad was this bloodbath?
[01:30:39]  And it just, it's the first time ever.
[01:30:42]  I think people should take a moment and appreciate the ahistorical character of this election again, but to appreciate it because anyone, not just me, anyone would have said that this is 40 plus seats if it's Republican plus six.
[01:30:59]  Yeah, so what happened then, Rich?
[01:31:01]  I mean, I got to be honest, though.
[01:31:02]  I mean, we're talking about seven seat majority, best case, right?
[01:31:05]  Like 10 seat best case.
[01:31:06]  It's probably going to be like a five seat majority.
[01:31:08]  I mean, that's a that's a 10, that's a 10 factor fold.
[01:31:12]  You're talking about a 10 sigma fold.
[01:31:15]  What happened here?
[01:31:16]  Yeah, I'm telling you, leadership blew it.
[01:31:18]  But, you know, it'll take time to go through the data, but I'm telling you, what jumps out at me immediately is that the Democratic vote was more efficient, which is the reverse of the way it usually is.
[01:31:30]  And that is because of this turnout differential between educational groups.
[01:31:36]  You know, I'm looking at New York right now.
[01:31:38]  Look, there are districts in New York that people didn't think Republicans can win or would have a harder time winning than like Virginia 7.
[01:31:46]  And that's what happened.
[01:31:47]  The people who turned out in areas like that were more educated, you know, were more educated.
[01:31:52]  The Republicans were able to do better with them.
[01:31:54]  So they brought those districts a lot closer.
[01:31:57]  But in the districts that the non-college vote is the lynchpin, they did not get enough conservative non-college out.
[01:32:04]  And you can see it's right in ideology.
[01:32:06]  It jumps right out at you.
[01:32:07]  So it tells you that the non-college that did come out was kind of less favorable to Republicans than they have been in years.
[01:32:15]  And otherwise, we would have saw that ideology breakdown, like 40% conservative or even 39 versus 36, 37 moderate.
[01:32:25]  That's how that stuff presents itself.
[01:32:28]  So the Democratic vote was more efficient.
[01:32:30]  And I think that comes down to messaging, Charlie.
[01:32:33]  They absolutely should have gone on the offensive.
[01:32:35]  You and I talked about this a million times.
[01:32:37]  You can't just shut up while somebody bludgeons you over an issue.
[01:32:40]  You can't.
[01:32:41]  You have to.
[01:32:42]  You have got to fire back.
[01:32:43]  And they did not.
[01:32:44]  Rich, I got a question for you.
[01:32:46]  I got a question for you.
[01:32:47]  Charlie may want to avoid the finger pointing right now, but I kind of don't.
[01:32:50]  And I think that it's time for people to accept the reality of the civil war inside of the Republican Party.
[01:32:57]  It does seem as though, talking about doing nothing, man, I have never seen anything more flaccid and linguine-spined than the way that the corporate GOP approached this very winnable election.
[01:33:09]  Now, I think there's a lot of synthesis to be done, but you touched on McCarthy.
[01:33:14]  I thought it was wild the way they rolled out this plan for America.
[01:33:18]  I saw nothing about it.

=== Media Narrative Gets Tarnished (13:10) ===

[01:33:20]  Nothing.
[01:33:20]  I am obsessed with following the news.
[01:33:23]  I got an entire team of young kids, 20 years old.
[01:33:25]  All they do is look at clips online.
[01:33:27]  Never once did I get a clip about Kevin McCarthy going based, going flamethrower, Kevin McCarthy rip roaring.
[01:33:34]  Never once.
[01:33:36]  I didn't get a single clip that like the corporate GOP did a single fire thing in this election.
[01:33:42]  And we cover this day in and day out.
[01:33:44]  We have the best damn people on the internet covering the hottest clips out there.
[01:33:49]  And we go nuts for it.
[01:33:51]  And if Kevin McCarthy did something boost, I would have covered it.
[01:33:55]  I have nothing against it.
[01:33:57]  But I didn't get a single clip, Rich.
[01:34:00]  Nothing.
[01:34:01]  20 seconds, and we'll talk over there.
[01:34:03]  God bless you.
[01:34:04]  Am I wrong?
[01:34:05]  Yeah, oh, I got no, no, God bless you.
[01:34:07]  They released, I thought we were going to break.
[01:34:08]  They released that mimic of a contract with America.
[01:34:12]  The website was a joke, a disaster.
[01:34:14]  It went up too early.
[01:34:15]  It was amateur hour.
[01:34:16]  Then when they finally rolled it out, it looked like it was written in 1994.
[01:34:20]  And then they took it down and they never pushed it anyway.
[01:34:23]  You have Republican voters being persecuted by the FBI and the government.
[01:34:27]  And he says nothing.
[01:34:28]  Stay right there.
[01:34:29]  Nothing.
[01:34:29]  Rich, can you check my math on this?
[01:34:31]  So with Blake.
[01:34:32]  Charlie, I just got a number, but I just got.
[01:34:35]  Oh, go ahead.
[01:34:35]  You want me to check something?
[01:34:36]  I just got some firm numbers.
[01:34:38]  Yeah, I know.
[01:34:38]  There's 428,000 minimum in Maricopa, 992 in La Pa.
[01:34:43]  See the drop-off?
[01:34:44]  What drop-off?
[01:34:45]  The drop-off number in Maricopa.
[01:34:48]  What are you talking about?
[01:34:48]  Oh, the ones that were brought in.
[01:34:50]  Yeah, it was 275,000 of them.
[01:34:53]  Yeah, I know.
[01:34:54]  And then also the party breakdown of them is insane.
[01:34:57]  Like, it's really, really good for us.
[01:34:59]  So, but, okay, so let me kind of go through this.
[01:35:03]  It's good.
[01:35:03]  Yeah, let's do the math.
[01:35:05]  So, this is for Blake Masters for control of the U.S. Senate because we got to take things in our own hands here in Arizona.
[01:35:12]  So, here's what we're doing.
[01:35:13]  So, this is how it's going.
[01:35:17]  So, in this state, where did I just had this pulled up here?
[01:35:21]  Okay.
[01:35:21]  There's a minimum convert.
[01:35:23]  There's a minimum confirmed, a minimum confirmed amount of ballots in the state of 600,000 ballots left, minimum.
[01:35:29]  But I think there's at least six, I know, Rich, I'm going to, yeah, I know.
[01:35:32]  There's at least 650,000 ballots left there.
[01:35:36]  If it's 650,000 ballots, let's say that Blake is currently down 90,000 votes.
[01:35:41]  Okay.
[01:35:42]  He's down 90,000 votes.
[01:35:44]  That means that he has to only win 58% to win by 14,000 votes.
[01:35:50]  Blake will win more than 58% of the remaining votes, period.
[01:35:54]  You have our hardest R's in Maricopa.
[01:35:56]  You got Yavapai.
[01:35:57]  You got Mojave.
[01:35:58]  You got Yuma.
[01:35:59]  You got same-day Pima, same-day Coconino.
[01:36:02]  I'm telling you, Mark Kelly is researching whether or not he can return space right now.
[01:36:06]  I'm not saying we have Blake taking the election day in Pima at least 60-40.
[01:36:12]  Sometimes it even went up to almost 70-30.
[01:36:15]  So he really, this, I don't know how Mark Kelly holds on now that I got this confirmation.
[01:36:20]  The drop-offs, gentlemen, in Maricopa are huge.
[01:36:24]  And, you know, like some people are saying, oh, they're going to lean Republican.
[01:36:27]  No, they're not.
[01:36:28]  They're going to be strongly Republican.
[01:36:30]  I don't know how Mark Kelly holds on with this number.
[01:36:33]  I actually.
[01:36:34]  Is my math right?
[01:36:35]  Am I right, Rich?
[01:36:37]  Yes, yes.
[01:36:37]  When we were talking about this yesterday, Charlie, we were trying to be conservative, right?
[01:36:41]  I'm being.
[01:36:43]  Yeah, we knew there could be this many left, but we were saying, okay, well, let's consider there's only, you know, 180, 200 election day votes and maybe another 200,000 drop-off votes.
[01:36:59]  We're way beyond that, Charlie.
[01:37:00]  And the math worked yesterday slightly for Blake.
[01:37:03]  It worked, you know, could.
[01:37:05]  It was a heavy lift, but it could.
[01:37:06]  This puts him, this gives him a buffer where he doesn't have to win the margin Kerry Lake is winning by because he's not.
[01:37:14]  He's winning by a slightly less margin.
[01:37:15]  Lake is just crushing it.
[01:37:18]  I never thought I'd see a 50-something point, 51-point margin.
[01:37:22]  I mean, they're there.
[01:37:24]  It's happening.
[01:37:25]  So this gives him a buffer where he can win them.
[01:37:28]  You know, the Pima Day election, he can win by like 15 to 20.
[01:37:32]  What's outstanding in Pima, which is, you know, of course, a Democratic county.
[01:37:37]  There's, and you even mentioned, this is why I was making such a big deal about Yavapai yesterday, even though, of course, elections are won and lost in Arizona and Maricopa.
[01:37:45]  The bottom line is you need Yavapie in case your margin doesn't break as big as you want it to.
[01:37:50]  You need Mojave.
[01:37:52]  And there's some big numbers out there.
[01:37:54]  You know, 76%.
[01:37:57]  That's wow.
[01:37:58]  You know, so that's what he needs.
[01:38:01]  If I was Mark Kelly, I'd be, I'd be, I wouldn't stop pacing all day today if I was Mark Kelly.
[01:38:07]  He's in deep trouble.
[01:38:09]  He's in deep trouble.
[01:38:10]  Yeah, this is really good news.
[01:38:10]  That's a disaster.
[01:38:11]  That's a total flip in a state that Mitch McConnell abandoned.
[01:38:16]  He did nothing.
[01:38:17]  He did nothing.
[01:38:18]  And I don't want to take credit for anything, but the work that our turning point volunteers did entirely.
[01:38:23]  Well, I'm not taking much of a case.
[01:38:24]  Man, take credit, Charlie.
[01:38:25]  It's not over.
[01:38:27]  Mark Kelly can still pull it out.
[01:38:29]  There's still election day.
[01:38:30]  There's still early things that need to be counted.
[01:38:33]  But man, I'm telling you, this is the fact it's even this close.
[01:38:37]  Mitch McConnell came in with them.
[01:38:38]  If he would have come in with a million dollars, Rich, what difference would that have made?
[01:38:43]  Yeah, no, I mean, honestly, it could have been a big difference.
[01:38:46]  I mean, the in and out, in and out, in and out, go to Peter Thial, go to Donald Trump.
[01:38:51]  It's your damn job to get a majority elected in the U.S. Senate.
[01:38:54]  It's not Peter Thiel's job to do it.
[01:38:56]  You know, these people are outrageous.
[01:38:57]  And I got to give Blake a lot of credit.
[01:39:00]  This guy is an extremely positive dude.
[01:39:02]  He knew the pressure that was on him the day before that debate.
[01:39:06]  And, you know, I am not.
[01:39:08]  If anyone ever has ever talked to me and asked me for, you know, political, they know I am not a, I'm not going to hold your hand.
[01:39:14]  I'm not going to pat you on the butt, tell you it's going to be all right, give you a little pat on the back or on top of the head.
[01:39:19]  I'm going to be really blunt with you and tell you if you don't perform tonight, it's over for you.
[01:39:23]  All right.
[01:39:23]  And this man went out there like Donald Trump did the night after the Billy Bush tape and did what he had to do.
[01:39:28]  And Blake Masters deserves a lot of credit for that.
[01:39:32]  Pressure is enormous on these guys.
[01:39:34]  It really is.
[01:39:35]  I got something wild coming in here over text.
[01:39:39]  This is very, very interesting.
[01:39:40]  So I am going to keep anonymous my source here, but this is a Republican candidate who lost last night telling me, telling me that we are dead right and that he was sabotaged.
[01:39:55]  He has to go.
[01:39:56]  Sabotaged by Kevin McCarthy, sabotaged by the NRCC, and was essentially there was a coordinated effort that if he didn't get in line and use the use the consultants, which we haven't even talked about, the scam of the century, which is the consultant class of Republicans, the consultant class, how this is never, none of your dollars ever go to these guys.
[01:40:20]  How the vast majority of this is all about fraudulence in our elections, taking your money and then giving it to the Washington, D.C. swamp class.
[01:40:30]  We should do an entire, I want to do an entire expose on that because these people are criminals and they are frauds.
[01:40:36]  Is it time?
[01:40:36]  And it is a lot of time.
[01:40:37]  Is it time to finally tell this country?
[01:40:39]  Burn it down.
[01:40:40]  This election has me wanting to burn it down.
[01:40:44]  Here in my inbox right now, staring at me, they're still typing, is a candidate who lost a very winnable, competitive race, a Republican, a good person.
[01:40:56]  And they're saying, nope, McCarthy literally torpedoed me and refused to help and won't even return my calls inside of a winnable race because they didn't, because he didn't want to return the calls.
[01:41:08]  Tom Emmer just tweeted.
[01:41:10]  He said the path to success for the GOP majority is reaching across the aisle.
[01:41:13]  I'm leaking the photos, Tom.
[01:41:17]  The photos are coming out now, Tom.
[01:41:19]  You just see OG.
[01:41:20]  I tagged him, by the way.
[01:41:21]  I tagged him right before he tweeted that.
[01:41:23]  Now he's talking about reaching across the aisle.
[01:41:25]  Okay, Tom.
[01:41:26]  He said he wanted to do the only choice we have.
[01:41:28]  The only choice we have.
[01:41:30]  Okay, let's show another path forward.
[01:41:32]  And you know what that path is, Benny?
[01:41:34]  War.
[01:41:35]  It's war.
[01:41:35]  Let's go.
[01:41:36]  Get that bright part, meme.
[01:41:38]  War.
[01:41:40]  You chose this, Tom.
[01:41:42]  You chose this.
[01:41:43]  You chose this.
[01:41:44]  Now, everything that follows, everything that follows after this is on you.
[01:41:49]  Yeah, why don't you change it?
[01:41:50]  Not on me, not on Benny, not on Charlie.
[01:41:52]  This is your decision.
[01:41:54]  And I want you to be very clear about that.
[01:41:56]  This is not my decision.
[01:41:57]  I didn't want to do this.
[01:41:58]  I didn't pick this fight, but I'm going to end it.
[01:41:59]  Go in.
[01:42:00]  Go in, King.
[01:42:00]  Why don't you leak more about Tucker Carlson's kid?
[01:42:03]  Huh?
[01:42:04]  How about you go after Tucker Lee?
[01:42:06]  Go after Tucker's family.
[01:42:07]  You're going to do that some more?
[01:42:08]  Tom Emmer has got to go.
[01:42:09]  He's number one.
[01:42:10]  Okay.
[01:42:10]  Get rid of him.
[01:42:10]  Let's go.
[01:42:11]  Got it, buddy.
[01:42:11]  Done.
[01:42:12]  Cool, dude.
[01:42:13]  Yep.
[01:42:14]  People are loving the energy, guys.
[01:42:15]  You know what else, Charlie?
[01:42:16]  You know what else?
[01:42:17]  I'm sure all the people at Politico, all the people that he leaks to at Politico, will give him cold company.
[01:42:21]  You know who else I love, by the way?
[01:42:22]  And I'm just going to throw it out here.
[01:42:23]  I got to comment on this, Charlie.
[01:42:25]  One of my favorites.
[01:42:26]  You know, I love these youth groups like Yaff, who spent all their time, all their time, not just them, but many others.
[01:42:34]  They raise money, they raise money, they raise money, they raise money, they do nothing about our institutions, they do nothing about indoctrination, they do nothing about fighting the schools, and they churn out little activist generation centers that are paid for by our taxpayer dollars to destroy our republic.
[01:42:51]  Email us your thoughts as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[01:42:54]  Jack PeSoba coming in hot.
[01:42:55]  As always, Rich Barris, how about one more segment together, man?
[01:42:57]  We got some more races to go over.
[01:42:59]  People daily big data polls.
[01:43:01]  Sorry, I've been so quiet, guys.
[01:43:02]  I've been crunching numbers and texting a lot of people.
[01:43:05]  Me too.
[01:43:05]  Rich, I'm telling you, man, this path for Blake is not a long shot, man.
[01:43:09]  This is a, it's more than feasible.
[01:43:11]  All the smart political people that, I mean, they don't trust my Twitter because I'm a conservative, but all of a sudden, I'm telling you right now, all the smart political people are going to start freaking out in the next 12 hours on Arizona.
[01:43:23]  Yeah, no, they really are.
[01:43:27]  They're going to be like, well, but Kerry Lake's going to win tonight.
[01:43:31]  Well, that's done.
[01:43:32]  Kerry Lake is giving a teacher.
[01:43:33]  It's done.
[01:43:34]  Dave Homiday is done.
[01:43:35]  We're only at Blake and Fincham here.
[01:43:37]  That's it.
[01:43:37]  I mean, they need to start to sink it in.
[01:43:41]  My window for Blake is Blake can win by $5,000 or $30,000, or he could lose by $5,000 or $10,000.
[01:43:46]  I don't the margin with that last year.
[01:43:50]  Stay right there, stay right there.
[01:43:52]  Everybody email me, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[01:44:24]  Welcome back, everybody.
[01:44:25]  Email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
[01:44:29]  And we got Rich Barris here.
[01:44:31]  Rich, yeah, Benny, go ahead.
[01:44:33]  I got a story.
[01:44:34]  Yeah, let me.
[01:44:35]  Yeah.
[01:44:35]  All right, Benny.
[01:44:36]  Real fast.
[01:44:37]  Okay, just, I promise you, you'll like this.
[01:44:39]  It'll take 30 seconds.
[01:44:40]  Here we go.
[01:44:41]  Reading to you from the insiders account of last night's GOP party, corporate party in Washington, D.C. How was Kevin McCarthy spending the night?
[01:44:53]  House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy was expected to take the stage as early as 10 p.m. to declare victory.
[01:44:58]  But come midnight, the main venue floor was empty and a small group of DC Hill staffers mingled around an open bar.
[01:45:05]  McCarthy finally went out after 2 a.m. saying, we are going to take the house back.
[01:45:12]  Minutes before his staff had gathered the remaining supporters and directed them to grab a sign and to pack it in in the area in front of the stage, there were a few dozen people.
[01:45:21]  That was the energy being delivered last night by our corporate GOP.
[01:45:28]  You know what?
[01:45:28]  Good for them.
[01:45:29]  And before I get into the numbers, good for them.
[01:45:31]  Because let me tell you, I know who you're talking about with that text.
[01:45:34]  We're not going to blow them up, but I know who you're talking about.
[01:45:36]  Let me explain to you what happens when Kevin, when people stand up in their lives and try to do what they think is right, put themselves forward to lead, to be public servants because they feel their country is at risk.
[01:45:46]  They get tarnished by the media.
[01:45:47]  And when their leaders like Kevin McCarthy don't stand up for them, they're finished in the private sector.
[01:45:53]  When you allow them to smear them, you destroy their careers.
[01:45:56]  If they don't win, their lives are radically different than they were before.
[01:46:00]  They go from having a pitch-perfect life, no problem.
[01:46:03]  Not everyone is Donald Trump.
[01:46:04]  It can take that kind of heat and still have the financial stability and the brand to deal with it.
[01:46:09]  If you're just somebody who thought you wanted to try to make a difference, you're ruined.
[01:46:13]  You're ruined.
[01:46:14]  Your reputation is ruined.
[01:46:15]  Your higher ability is extremely diminished.
[01:46:19]  So, you know, I'm not feeling sorry for Kevin McCarthy that he's not going to get the, you know, the gavel is just out of grasp again for him.
[01:46:26]  But here's why I'm bullish on Blake.
[01:46:28]  All right.

=== Smear Campaigns Destroy Careers (08:24) ===

[01:46:30]  There's 200 and 400,000 in Maricopa, 275 are the election day drop-offs that will lean that lean.
[01:46:36]  They will heavily favor Blake Masters.
[01:46:39]  And the other 125 are male.
[01:46:41]  Now, you may say, oh, but he had such, he got killed among that male.
[01:46:44]  But he did because those were votes that were banked and Blake was trailing at that point.
[01:46:49]  In our polling, the undecided broke to Blake.
[01:46:51]  So if they mailed their ballot late, Mark Kelly is not going to have a 14-point margin with these people.
[01:46:57]  So it won't, even if Mark Kelly wins them, he's not going to win them by the margin he won them by before.
[01:47:02]  And by the way, it's highly likely he loses them, right, Charlie?
[01:47:05]  Yeah, it's highly likely actually here's the thing: the entire race is going to come down to this Maricopa drop tonight, of which we will be streaming.
[01:47:14]  So just everyone knows, we are going to stream here for a little bit longer, right?
[01:47:17]  And then we're going to take a break and then we're going to come back for an evening stream.
[01:47:23]  And then the big drop will be at 7 p.m. tonight.
[01:47:25]  The big drop, and Rich, you're welcome to join.
[01:47:28]  It's going to be a monster drop, and we're going to know the margins.
[01:47:31]  If Blake is 62 to 66% winning those drops, he's cooking with gas.
[01:47:38]  If Blake is like 68 to 72%, he can afford to lose even other drops in Pima and other places.
[01:47:46]  I'm telling you, must watch tonight.
[01:47:48]  It's going to be must watch.
[01:47:49]  Watch for the 7 p.m. be here.
[01:47:51]  We're going to be even earlier.
[01:47:53]  We're going to probably start around 6 and probably build up to it because there's other races that are build up.
[01:47:57]  But this is the future of the United States Senate, the future of Arizona.
[01:48:00]  And Kerry Lake will be declared governor of Arizona tonight, which will be, yeah, I forget what time zone we're in because it's 7 p.m. Marriott.
[01:48:07]  9 p.m. Eastern.
[01:48:08]  Yeah, that's right.
[01:48:09]  6 p.m.
[01:48:10]  No, that's not right.
[01:48:10]  8 p.m. Eastern, we're going to probably start streaming.
[01:48:12]  No, no, no, no, I'm talking about the drop.
[01:48:13]  But yes, 8 p.m. Eastern.
[01:48:14]  8 p.m. Eastern.
[01:48:15]  Okay, so 8 p.m. Eastern is when the stream starts.
[01:48:18]  9 is when we expect to be.
[01:48:19]  Stay right there, Jack.
[01:48:20]  Email is freedom at charliekirk.com.
[01:48:34]  Welcome back, everybody.
[01:48:35]  Email is freedom at charliekirk.com.
[01:48:38]  Look, the entire United States Senate is coming down to Georgia's going to a runoff.
[01:48:42]  We'll worry about that later.
[01:48:43]  It's going to Nevada and Arizona.
[01:48:45]  And look, I have no, like, let's just say expertise in Nevada at all, Rich.
[01:48:52]  So you're going to have to tell me what's going on there.
[01:48:55]  I will say, say, Arizona, I'm feeling good.
[01:48:59]  Yeah, and in the silver state, it's really going to come down to what, and they don't know that they have 100,000 ballots in Clark.
[01:49:06]  They're saying they, in the last, in the next four days, maybe 100,000 ballots, upward of 100,000 ballots, could trick in.
[01:49:15]  I got to tell you, folks, maybe they don't.
[01:49:17]  Maybe they don't.
[01:49:18]  Laxalt did what a Republican has to do so far in order to win.
[01:49:22]  He's winning Washoe County by almost five points.
[01:49:25]  There's more election day vote there, by the way, to be counted.
[01:49:29]  And he netted out of the last drop in Washoe County.
[01:49:33]  It was 1,400 votes.
[01:49:34]  He netted 1,000.
[01:49:36]  So understand how these election day margins are breaking in Nevada for Republicans.
[01:49:43]  So if what I'm a little bit hesitant to say here is that Masto didn't get a huge, huge margin in Clark County when that 400,000 early vote dropped.
[01:49:58]  She won it by 11 points.
[01:50:00]  And then the election day vote started to trickle in.
[01:50:02]  And she's only carrying Clark right now by about five points, 50.9 to 46.2.
[01:50:09]  You know, I'm rounding here.
[01:50:11]  It should be really 51 flat to 46.2, but it's not enough.
[01:50:16]  100,000 ballots, Charlie, should not be enough to widen Clark back out to nine points.
[01:50:22]  And that's the last, that really is the, I would say, that's the target for Laxalt.
[01:50:28]  Don't want to fall below nine.
[01:50:29]  We also don't know.
[01:50:30]  I am hearing there is still election day vote in Clark.
[01:50:34]  And if there is, then Laxalt and Bulk Lombardo and Laxalt are going to win that.
[01:50:39]  It's very clear because of what we have seen so far.
[01:50:42]  And there's still some rurals out to help Pad.
[01:50:44]  So right now he's up by about 23,000, something ballpark like that.
[01:50:49]  And I don't know how 100,000 mail-in ballots could net Masto 25,000 votes.
[01:50:54]  I just don't.
[01:50:56]  If that happens, it means they're what?
[01:50:58]  Democrats running around and harvesting.
[01:51:00]  That would be the only way in Clark.
[01:51:03]  Culinary.
[01:51:04]  But here's the deal, though.
[01:51:05]  We did speak in our polling.
[01:51:07]  It looks like we could be right on with both races.
[01:51:10]  And if we are, we spoke to a lot of people in the culinary union who were like, listen, I'm not going to tell anybody what the hell with these people.
[01:51:16]  Inflation is two times the national average in this place.
[01:51:19]  Like, I'm getting killed.
[01:51:20]  One Hispanic worker who was a culinary union told me he was like, yeah, no, I'm not voting Democrat this time.
[01:51:25]  He said, I don't, I can't afford to learn their pronouns.
[01:51:28]  He said, that's what he told me.
[01:51:29]  I can't afford to learn their pronouns.
[01:51:31]  I can't pay my bills.
[01:51:32]  You know, I mean, it's that simple.
[01:51:34]  So I'm not sure they're going to get what they think they're going to get.
[01:51:36]  And I think that's why they're in the position they're in right now, gentlemen.
[01:51:39]  They should, you know, that Nevada is hard to win for a Republican.
[01:51:44]  It's very hard to win.
[01:51:45]  And they're in good shape right now, I think, because they did so well with non-white voters.
[01:51:50]  Look at the exit polls.
[01:51:52]  Remember, Charlie, when I put out Nevada, I don't know if you guys remember this, but I got nuked on that.
[01:51:57]  Laxalt is not going to do that well with Hispanics.
[01:52:00]  This is ridiculous.
[01:52:01]  They went for Biden 6530, you know, blah, And, you know, that's not the case.
[01:52:07]  Hispanics went shifted Republican quite a bit, quite a bit.
[01:52:12]  They're separated by like 10 points.
[01:52:14]  So there's going to be some big drops coming, and it's going to be pretty considerable coming soon, especially in Arizona.
[01:52:23]  People are saying, Charlie, I don't understand what's happening here.
[01:52:26]  Why does it take so long?
[01:52:27]  Literally, the ballots drops are not going to be for a couple hours.
[01:52:29]  That's literally where we're at right now.
[01:52:31]  So it's going to be a couple hours, and hopefully we'll have some clarity on that.
[01:52:35]  Rich, what other races are we keeping an eye on?
[01:52:39]  Yeah, I mean, look, is it me or did Oregon turn out in the governor's race to be much closer than anybody thought, right?
[01:52:47]  That polling looked close, but then it looked like to me that the Democrat was starting to consolidate.
[01:52:53]  There is vote that's remaining out.
[01:52:55]  It's very well balanced.
[01:52:57]  So Kotech can't be very comfortable with that lead.
[01:53:00]  But that's about it on the governor's end because everything else is called.
[01:53:03]  In the Senate, we know George is going to run off.
[01:53:05]  Nevada, that leaves Nevada and Arizona.
[01:53:07]  So that's it.
[01:53:07]  So basically, the rest of what I'm looking at is in the House.
[01:53:11]  There are races out in California.
[01:53:12]  Will Ryan Zinke hold on in Montana House District 1?
[01:53:16]  I think he will, but we'll see.
[01:53:17]  There's about 87% of the vote counted over there.
[01:53:21]  And with, you know, almost 90% in, Bruce Poliquin is still trailing Jared Golden by about four points, almost dead on, four points.
[01:53:30]  This independent, and guys, you should take a second to go around the map.
[01:53:35]  Democrats did this in 18.
[01:53:36]  They like helped, you know, indirectly helped independent candidates in house races pull away some votes because there's a lot of data research about independents hurting Republicans more than they hurt Democrats.
[01:53:49]  So there are certain voters that if an independent is on the ballot, then otherwise Republican-leaning voters will actually, some of them will vote for them.
[01:53:58]  We are returned, Jack Pesovic, Penny Johnson, covering down the stream.
[01:54:02]  Yo, yo, brother, what's up?
[01:54:04]  All right.
[01:54:04]  We took it over.
[01:54:05]  So from Charlie.
[01:54:06]  So, Benny, we got to talk about this, man.
[01:54:08]  That when I'm looking at some states like Philadelphia or like Pennsylvania, when I'm looking at states like Michigan, Wisconsin, when I'm looking at states that should have had much, New York, much bigger margins, we still have rich, right?
[01:54:22]  Do we still have rich?
[01:54:23]  Yeah, I'm here.
[01:54:24]  I'm hearing you loud and clear.
[01:54:27]  My thesis last night, Rich, and I'm not sure if you were on the stream with us back then.
[01:54:31]  Honestly, I might be crazy, but I've been saying it for three days now: TikTok, right?
[01:54:37]  These TikTok-driven operations, the influencers coming into the White House, we all made fun of it.
[01:54:42]  We all laughed it.
[01:54:44]  But did they actually turn out people in sizable numbers with which to give them the margins that really made up a huge difference in some of these states?

=== Social Media Becomes Huge Force (03:01) ===

[01:54:54]  Some of these machine states, by the way.
[01:54:57]  Look, this is, I came on after my stream, which we'll be doing later as well for the job, but and I'll join you guys too.
[01:55:05]  But yeah, definitely without a doubt, Charlie, this is something we have to explore because for whatever reason, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania to me, it jumps right out.
[01:55:16]  Oz did so much better with college educated, but not non-college.
[01:55:19]  That's because of the turnout differential.
[01:55:21]  It's not that the Republican Party lost necessarily some of those voters.
[01:55:26]  They didn't turn out at the rates that Democrats got theirs to turn out.
[01:55:31]  So it made that margin tighter.
[01:55:33]  And without that non-college, heavy vote in Pennsylvania, Republicans cannot win.
[01:55:38]  And Oz didn't get it.
[01:55:40]  And there's this tech, we are in the age of information.
[01:55:43]  It's not the age of technology.
[01:55:45]  It's post-industrial era in toasting industrialized age.
[01:55:50]  It is the age of information and everything is a war.
[01:55:54]  I mean, I hate to tell you, but it's a war for narrative.
[01:55:57]  And the impact that these social media companies and technology can have on public opinion is huge.
[01:56:03]  We know what Google was doing.
[01:56:04]  We've seen the paperwork with the, you know, 2016, because Trump won because of social media.
[01:56:12]  That's when the censorship immediately turned on because we had the ability and the lesson they learned, Jack.
[01:56:17]  Yes, the lesson they learned, Jack, in 2016 was not, oh my God, Donald Trump talked to all these people and heard a voice that we didn't hear.
[01:56:24]  We were, you know, ignoring legitimate grievances.
[01:56:26]  No, the lesson was we lost control of the information highway.
[01:56:31]  We lost control of the narrative.
[01:56:33]  The advent of social media, the advent of independent media, that became a real force.
[01:56:39]  And it wasn't suddenly the Washington Post who was setting the tone.
[01:56:43]  It wasn't suddenly Fox News, even, right?
[01:56:45]  Otherwise, Donald Trump would never have won if Fox News was still the one picking the narrative and driving the narrative.
[01:56:51]  They weren't.
[01:56:51]  They got derailed by people like you and by people like, you know, Charlie and all the independent Breitbart was a huge force, admittedly, right?
[01:57:00]  Huge force.
[01:57:01]  Drudge, a huge force.
[01:57:03]  What did they do?
[01:57:03]  They bought Drudge, right?
[01:57:05]  And then I'm not going to, I'll leave the, I'll leave the rest up to you guys.
[01:57:08]  Have you visited that website lately?
[01:57:10]  They bought Drudge.
[01:57:11]  They took it over and they started the censorship.
[01:57:15]  James O'Keefe, I mean, because of somebody who went to him and leaked to him.
[01:57:18]  All we did was offer an election model that didn't look like Nate Silver's.
[01:57:22]  We got put on Google's ban list.
[01:57:24]  There's nothing misinformation about it.
[01:57:27]  We used to be a partner with Google News.
[01:57:29]  I am the author of the WordPress Google News plugin.
[01:57:32]  Not many people know that.
[01:57:33]  I wrote the PHP in JavaScript code for the WordPress Google News plugin and I gave it to Google News.
[01:57:39]  The point was to have so smaller outlets who didn't have big tech departments could do the, could comply with the tech technical.
[01:57:48]  And there's another word, another, there are two, two tiers, but there are guidelines in order to be a news aggregator on Apple News, Google News, Bing News.

=== Drudge Report Bought And Censored (08:06) ===

[01:57:56]  And I wrote that for them.
[01:57:58]  And yet they turned on me in a heartbeat.
[01:58:01]  I'm in a heartbeat.
[01:58:03]  I never published anything fake news.
[01:58:05]  I never, people's funded daily back then never had been fact checked.
[01:58:09]  The only thing we did, our sin, was to run a tracking poll that Google didn't like when they turned off their Google consumer surveys on October 27th.
[01:58:18]  I got a call from somebody at Google who said that they forced them to turn it off because they had Trump leading in Florida and other states and that we were the last ones out there.
[01:58:29]  So they had their eye on us.
[01:58:31]  And then if it wasn't for James O'Keefe, I would never have known because I wouldn't have ever gotten those documents, right?
[01:58:37]  Somebody went to Project Veritas and said, here's a bunch of people they're targeting.
[01:58:40]  And boom, there I was.
[01:58:42]  I mean, incredible.
[01:58:43]  I mean, if you think there's no impact from this.
[01:58:46]  I don't know.
[01:58:47]  I don't know what planet you're on.
[01:58:49]  This is enormously powerful.
[01:58:51]  And that was the lesson they learned.
[01:58:53]  But not only that, but they've turned that social media engine into a machine that they've combined with the mail-in balloting, the ballot harvesting.
[01:59:03]  This has become a massive operation.
[01:59:05]  It started in the West.
[01:59:07]  Okay.
[01:59:07]  It started in California.
[01:59:09]  Then it came to Arizona.
[01:59:10]  Arizona, of course, had certain, shall we say, entities here to be able to fight the fight on the ground.
[01:59:17]  But it then moved through the Midwest and it's taken the East by storm.
[01:59:22]  It's absolutely taken the East by storm.
[01:59:24]  They are able to generate ballots directly.
[01:59:27]  This isn't just going and hitting somebody up for an absentee.
[01:59:29]  This is getting your vote in immediately.
[01:59:31]  That's all money in the bank before the election day comes in.
[01:59:35]  And I'm just going to say it, Republicans and conservatives and everybody else, whether you're MAGA, whether you're established, whatever, okay?
[01:59:42]  You need to start either, number one, banning it outright, which we said after 2020 we were going to do, but I don't really think any states actually did that.
[01:59:50]  Florida did.
[01:59:51]  Florida did, but Florida does have early voting, right?
[01:59:53]  Florida has early voting.
[01:59:54]  Florida banned mass mail and ballots and banned, of course, ban it when you can.
[01:59:59]  And election day guy, they have election day deadlines.
[02:00:02]  But if you can't ban it, if you can't, if you're in a state where you can't ban it, you have to fight it with money and you have to fight fire with fire.
[02:00:08]  And it is what it is.
[02:00:09]  The election day deadline is huge in Florida.
[02:00:12]  That's why they can't trickle in 100,000 ballots in Clark County, like Clark County.
[02:00:17]  They can't do that in Florida because if your absentee ballot doesn't arrive by 7 p.m. on election day, it's not going to count, period.
[02:00:23]  So let me ask you a question, Rich.
[02:00:25]  Really, what is the trend here?
[02:00:26]  What's the takeaway, right?
[02:00:27]  I know the establishment stuff.
[02:00:28]  We talked about that, obviously.
[02:00:29]  And that resonates with me, right?
[02:00:31]  So what's the takeaway here?
[02:00:36]  Honestly, I think it's a bad trend.
[02:00:38]  I do.
[02:00:39]  I don't think, you know, like we said, you have certain people who are actually, I think if Kerry Lake was not the candidate that she was, then we would be able to.
[02:00:50]  I mean, look, I think Karen Taylor Robinson would be struggling.
[02:00:53]  Oh, she'd lose without a doubt because of the machine Jack is talking about right now.
[02:00:57]  The establishment, they wouldn't have fought the machine the way Kerry Lake fought it.
[02:01:01]  She's going to overwhelm it because she has people that just love her.
[02:01:05]  In the polling, Charlie, this is why I said take a bow because in the polling, that younger group, that Karen Taylor Robson would never have gotten that younger group.
[02:01:15]  And there simply aren't enough older voters if you're going to get slaughtered among 18 to 44 the way that Republicans did in a lot of parts of the country.
[02:01:23]  I just don't think they know how to combat it.
[02:01:27]  And obviously they don't because, look, Brian Kemp did not win by an impressive margin that was expected that, you know, that he was going to win by.
[02:01:35]  You know, so I actually think the long-term trend is bad.
[02:01:38]  And I think what Jack is talking about needs to, along with leadership, needs to become front and center.
[02:01:43]  Because what did DeSantis do?
[02:01:44]  You censor one of my residents and I will slap you with a fine.
[02:01:51]  And people were laughing at the size of the fine.
[02:01:52]  But Charlie, how many Florida residents have been banned from Twitter, right?
[02:01:57]  Have been or whatever, banned from Facebook, censored in some way.
[02:02:01]  That racks up real quick, real fast.
[02:02:03]  That law was one of the main reasons that we moved.
[02:02:07]  I mean, really, honestly, Florida is the free, freest state.
[02:02:11]  And Arizona, for all of those transplants that moved from California and New York, we see you because we ask what state you were born in.
[02:02:18]  Were you born in Arizona?
[02:02:19]  Did you move there?
[02:02:20]  Lake is winning people who moved from California over two to one, over two to one.
[02:02:27]  That state would be blue already.
[02:02:29]  So Arizona, you are on the cusp of where Florida was a couple of, you know, during the era of Obama.
[02:02:35]  And you have a chance now because you're going to have a serious governor.
[02:02:39]  That's done.
[02:02:39]  I'm telling you.
[02:02:40]  You have a chance now to make sure that you button things up because it's not irreversible.
[02:02:45]  But the rest of the country is in dire straits because, you know, Doug Mastriano has lost.
[02:02:51]  That will be a you-know-what show.
[02:02:53]  It has always been a you-know-what show in Philadelphia and Allegheny.
[02:02:57]  Now it's going to, they're going to try to just make this permanent.
[02:02:59]  That's what I think last night was.
[02:03:01]  Can we make parts of what we did in 2020 permanent?
[02:03:03]  Because we got away with it.
[02:03:05]  And I think that the message they're going to take from last night is that yes.
[02:03:09]  And that's why you're going to see them so angry that Hamadai is going to be attorney general.
[02:03:14]  Because if Kerry Lake was just the governor, it wouldn't matter, guys, because who the hell is she?
[02:03:19]  Who's she going to turn to and say, do this, make sure this is carried out, make sure the law is followed?
[02:03:24]  Nobody.
[02:03:25]  You know, that's why the whole ticket really was that important.
[02:03:28]  Because, you know, if Katie Hobbs is or Adrian Fontes now is the Secretary of State, you think he's going to do a damn thing to try to clean up what's going on?
[02:03:37]  He's not.
[02:03:38]  So she's going to need Abe Homeday to have the power of law enforcement behind him to stop criminality.
[02:03:45]  And, you know, you have a chance now.
[02:03:47]  You have a chance.
[02:03:48]  And because of the woman you elected, you know, you have a better chance than not.
[02:03:54]  But, you know, again, in that drop, we're going to be doing that later tonight as well.
[02:03:58]  So keep an eye out.
[02:03:59]  We'll publish the link, but we'll join you guys, but we're also going to put that up so people can follow the results live on YouTube.
[02:04:06]  In closing, any other races, guys, you want to ask Rich about or trends?
[02:04:09]  Iowa 3.
[02:04:10]  Iowa 3.
[02:04:11]  Iowa 3, I forgot to mention.
[02:04:13]  Tell us about it.
[02:04:13]  Yeah, Iowa 3 is like dead.
[02:04:17]  Yep, the Republican has a lead of 2,200, less than 2,200 votes.
[02:04:23]  It's 50.4 to 49.7, and I'm rounding, you know, sometimes.
[02:04:27]  So Zach Nunn is ahead with just about all the vote in, but it's not all.
[02:04:33]  They're saying greater than 99, but in Iowa, we can have ballots trickle in.
[02:04:37]  That was the race.
[02:04:38]  And this is another thing that just simply doesn't make sense.
[02:04:41]  That was the race that everybody was using.
[02:04:44]  Even Nate Slymer was using Iowa 3 as the lynchpin race, like the pivot race.
[02:04:49]  If Zach Nunn is winning or wins, then it's a massive night for Republicans.
[02:04:54]  He looks like he's going to hold on.
[02:04:56]  And by the way, if he does hold on, Republicans have every delegation in Iowa.
[02:05:02]  They have the entire delegation.
[02:05:04]  So, you know, Iowa's firmly Republican and they need every seat in Iowa.
[02:05:09]  Iowa's a Trump plus 10 state.
[02:05:11]  Trump plus 10, man.
[02:05:13]  Trump plus 10.
[02:05:14]  Rich, I was going to, the reason that I'm asking about these mechanism issues about ballot harvesting and mail-in ballots is because we had an interesting dynamic last night, which you would think would have been the opposite because 73% upset where the country is.
[02:05:32]  And yet we also saw a night where in state after state after state, incumbents were reelected, incumbent governors.
[02:05:40]  And particularly, by the way, a lot of governors in some states like Wisconsin, like Michigan, and like Ohio that supported very strong lockdown policies.
[02:05:52]  And I know there were a lot of people thinking that lockdown policies were going to be, and by the way, in Pennsylvania, you can argue that was part of it too, because that was a strong lockdown state.
[02:06:00]  But then, of course, Hokul as well in New York.

=== Lockdown Policies Split Ticket (08:32) ===

[02:06:02]  It didn't seem to be this huge pivot issue that everybody thought it was going to be because it's going out.
[02:06:08]  Why do you think it was then that incumbents did so well last night?
[02:06:12]  Well, you know, that's why I think these institutional mechanisms that you and I are talking about, I think they're so important, Jack, because if they are out there, and I know they are, you know, they are, if somebody designed this kind of like, you know, machine, then it's going to benefit the status quo and it's going to help incumbents.
[02:06:31]  It's going to, you know, it's being built to keep those people in power.
[02:06:35]  So it makes sense that, you know, you're not going to touch Ron Johnson, or maybe you can get close, but you're not going to unseat the governor.
[02:06:42]  So there's going to be a split ticket there.
[02:06:44]  It kind of makes sense.
[02:06:46]  And as far as the COVID stuff, this is where cowardice really runs you awry.
[02:06:50]  If everybody acted like Ron DeSantis, if everyone, and Ron was, look, Ron was a shutdown man himself.
[02:06:57]  I live there.
[02:06:57]  Don't tell me.
[02:06:58]  Ron was like wearing a mask and telling everybody to get the vaccine as soon as it came out.
[02:07:01]  So, you know, give me, don't, you know, people, these DeSantis stumpers, I love them too, but let's not overblow this.
[02:07:07]  All right.
[02:07:08]  He only started going after Fauci when it became ridiculous and too much.
[02:07:13]  But I will say that basically, in a nutshell, not everyone was unified on this.
[02:07:18]  And if not everyone was unified, you really weren't able to bring that message to the voters.
[02:07:22]  If the leadership of the party at one point was saying, yes, we have to lock down and yes, we have to get the vax and yes, we have to close our schools.
[02:07:30]  It's so hard to take that argument.
[02:07:33]  It didn't become the drum.
[02:07:35]  That's right.
[02:07:36]  How can you do it?
[02:07:37]  How can you do it when people are like, wait a minute?
[02:07:40]  I know a bunch of Republicans I heard say the same damn thing.
[02:07:43]  So don't blame Gretchen Whitmer.
[02:07:45]  I mean, these aren't politicos.
[02:07:47]  They're everyday people.
[02:07:48]  They're not like us.
[02:07:49]  They're not humanists the way we're.
[02:07:51]  Yep.
[02:07:53]  Any other closing thoughts, guys, before we go resume the stream later today?
[02:07:56]  And everybody on the stream, email us freedom at charliekirk.com and please consider subscribing to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast by opening up your podcast app.
[02:08:04]  And if you want to support our show, it's charliekirk.com/slash support.
[02:08:09]  If you want to actually directly support us, we'll go around the horn.
[02:08:12]  Jack, what's on your mind?
[02:08:14]  I'm thinking about mechanisms.
[02:08:16]  I'm thinking about Republican.
[02:08:17]  Look, Charlie, I'm going to say it again.
[02:08:19]  I've said this before.
[02:08:21]  At the end of the day, Democrats understand something that Republicans don't.
[02:08:25]  And Republicans need to understand this.
[02:08:27]  It is not the quality of your votes that matters.
[02:08:29]  It is the quantity of your votes that matters in the American election system.
[02:08:35]  Quantity, quantity, quantity.
[02:08:37]  And if you can build a machine, if you can build a machine that translates all that support, whether it's Facebook or Twitter, whatever, into direct votes, then you need to do that.
[02:08:49]  And you need to spend the money to do so.
[02:08:51]  Benny.
[02:08:53]  I got here on my screen.
[02:08:56]  I got here on my screen just the wildest thing you will see.
[02:09:00]  Probably, probably can't catch it here, but this is from the New York Times.
[02:09:04]  And it is, there we go.
[02:09:05]  Okay.
[02:09:06]  That's Florida.
[02:09:07]  Yeah, the state of Florida.
[02:09:08]  That's not really true.
[02:09:10]  What do you say?
[02:09:10]  All right, it's just the state of Florida.
[02:09:11]  Every single county.
[02:09:14]  Swinging the hardest.
[02:09:15]  So they have these little arrows that show you the margin, the shift in the margin from the last election to this election.
[02:09:20]  And it is the biggest arrows that they can make.
[02:09:22]  It is the largest arrows in every county.
[02:09:25]  Not a single blue arrow in the entire state.
[02:09:28]  If you're looking for a plan, this is a plan.
[02:09:31]  And this isn't, everyone's going to try and make this.
[02:09:33]  And they did this on the morning show on our show.
[02:09:35]  And a big shout out to the Benny Show audience.
[02:09:37]  I want to thank all of you.
[02:09:39]  We tell you to watch this.
[02:09:40]  We're very, very proud of what we're building there.
[02:09:42]  And if you want to support what we're doing, please subscribe to the Benny Show.
[02:09:46]  But everyone's like, yo, okay, so you're saying, are you simping for DeSantis?
[02:09:50]  Are you simping for Trump?
[02:09:53]  That is a battle for another day.
[02:09:57]  Now is strategy time.
[02:09:59]  Now is about strategy.
[02:10:00]  What strategy wins and what strategy loses.
[02:10:04]  It is important to call balls and strikes.
[02:10:06]  It is important to make sure you are swinging the axe and that when you are banging the shields together, that you are pointing your armies in the right direction, okay?
[02:10:16]  Otherwise, you'll get slaughtered.
[02:10:18]  And so let's look at the victories.
[02:10:20]  There was a red wave.
[02:10:21]  And this is what's on my mind, Charlie.
[02:10:22]  This is what's on my mind.
[02:10:24]  Yes, we didn't lie to you.
[02:10:26]  There was a red wave last night.
[02:10:28]  It was a red tsunami in Florida.
[02:10:31]  This is it.
[02:10:31]  I have it for you here.
[02:10:32]  I'm sorry you can't see it on the back.
[02:10:35]  I don't think it's North Carolina.
[02:10:36]  And Rich is here to tell you where there were red tsunamis.
[02:10:41]  You have to look state by state.
[02:10:42]  There were red tsunamis.
[02:10:44]  And so then let's study what's going on in those states and let's use that as the battle plan.
[02:10:47]  Arizona, when it's all said and done, we're going to say some real movement in Arizona.
[02:10:51]  I'm telling you, those arrows in it, once all the ballots are counted, right around New Year's, we'll know all the ballots and we'll get that all figured out.
[02:10:59]  Everybody, you can email us, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[02:11:02]  People are asking about Joe Kent.
[02:11:03]  Do you feel good about Joe Kent, right, Rich?
[02:11:05]  I'm getting blown up about Joe Kent.
[02:11:07]  Yeah, I do.
[02:11:07]  And when we start the stream a little bit later, which it'll go out on social media, Joe Kent's one of the ones we're going to go in in great detail and show people what's left county by county and why Joe Kent with a third of the vote out is going to overtake Perez.
[02:11:22]  So I do feel good about Joe Kent.
[02:11:24]  Yes.
[02:11:25]  That's great.
[02:11:26]  Everyone can email me directly, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[02:11:28]  Take out your phone, everybody, and type in Charlie Kirk Show to your podcast provider.
[02:11:33]  It's very simple.
[02:11:33]  Every single phone has a podcast app.
[02:11:36]  We are the second largest conservative podcast right now.
[02:11:39]  So thank you guys for helping us get that.
[02:11:40]  That's the power of the live stream when you have millions and millions of concurrence.
[02:11:44]  And so we really appreciate that.
[02:11:46]  Please hit the bell on YouTube, subscribe.
[02:11:47]  And if you want to support us, go to charliekirk.com slash support.
[02:11:50]  But I would be forgetting something if I did not plug.
[02:11:53]  Guys, let's get cut 55.
[02:11:54]  AmericaFest, AMFest.com, December 17, 18, 19, and 20 in Phoenix, Arizona.
[02:12:02]  Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Greg Gutfeld, Benny Johnson, Jack Pasobic, Congresswoman-elect Ana Paulina, Governor-elect Carrie Lake, which we'll be able to officially say tonight.
[02:12:13]  Uh-oh.
[02:12:13]  And more.
[02:12:15]  Let's play the tape of AmericaFest, AMFest.com.
[02:12:30]  Pro-American Patriots from Sea to Shining Sea are coming together to reclaim our foundational truths of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
[02:12:37]  Charlie Kirk here.
[02:12:38]  2022 is the year we take back America.
[02:12:41]  So let's make history again.
[02:12:43]  The movement starts here at Turning Point USA in Phoenix, Arizona.
[02:12:46]  Join us December 17th to the 20th at America Fest.
[02:12:50]  Purchase your tickets right now for the biggest conservative party in America at AMFest.com.
[02:12:56]  That is amfest.com, amfest.com.
[02:12:59]  See you later.
[02:13:00]  Now we'll be doing it.
[02:13:03]  mfest.com amfest.com get your tickets special promo code it's going to be the biggest event of the year can't wait to see you all there amfest.com americafest a turning point usa event also if you are a high school student or a college student out there start a turning point USA chapter at tpusa.com.
[02:13:21]  That is tpusa.com.
[02:13:23]  Again, thank you guys for subscribing to the Charlie Kirk Show.
[02:13:25]  In just a couple hours, we're going to be right here, fully staffed.
[02:13:28]  We're going to go get some In-N Out, right?
[02:13:29]  In-N-Out burger, right?
[02:13:30]  We're going to have In-N-NOT.
[02:13:31]  In N-N Out, let's do it.
[02:13:32]  We're going to have In-N-Out.
[02:13:33]  We're going to have In-N-Out cascading around our desk, and we are going to be here tonight.
[02:13:37]  Fountains of information.
[02:13:38]  Believe it or not, you're going to have more clarity about the future of the U.S. Senate and the United States House of Representatives tonight than last night on this stream.
[02:13:47]  That's what's happening.
[02:13:48]  Rich, I hope you could join us, man.
[02:13:49]  It's going to be epic.
[02:13:50]  We can blend streams if you want.
[02:13:51]  If we could cross-post or something, we'll promote you.
[02:13:55]  Talk to Andrew.
[02:13:55]  We'll see what we can do, okay?
[02:13:56]  We'll see what we can do.
[02:13:57]  Yeah, the splitter just came in FedEx.
[02:13:59]  So locals, chill out, and we'll be able to, and let's blend it together.
[02:14:03]  All right.
[02:14:03]  Well, good luck with that because I have no idea what that means.
[02:14:06]  So email me, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[02:14:09]  Benny, you're in town.
[02:14:09]  You're not leaving until later, right?
[02:14:11]  Yeah, I'm in town.
[02:14:11]  Jack, I'm in.
[02:14:12]  We'll have Austin and Tyler.
[02:14:13]  We'll pull up an extra mic.
[02:14:14]  It's going to be amazing.
[02:14:15]  Thank you guys for subscribing to my podcast.
[02:14:17]  Thank you guys for supporting Turning Point USA.
[02:14:19]  Get your tickets to America Fest.
[02:14:21]  We're going to recharge our batteries for a couple hours and then we'll see you for the most consequential evening for the Republic since 2020.
[02:14:27]  Tonight's the night.
[02:14:28]  We're going to know a lot of things.
[02:14:29]  Arizona, Blake Masters, we're going to know a lot of stuff.
[02:14:32]  See you guys then.
[02:14:33]  Email me, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[02:14:35]  God bless you.