The Charlie Kirk Show - Seriously, What's Up With Brazil? with Paulo Figueiredo Filho and Rich Baris
Aired: 2022-11-03
Duration: 35:43


=== Clarity on Brazil's Confusion (01:35) ===

[00:00:00]  Hey, everybody.
[00:00:00]  Today in the Charlie Kirk Show, Richard Barris joins us and also a great commentator, Paolo, from Brazil, to explain what's happening in Brazil.
[00:00:08]  Very confusing, very important.
[00:00:10]  Support our program at charliekirk.com/slash support and get involved with Turning Point Action today.
[00:00:15]  Knock on doors and join us in Florida this weekend with Ron DeSantis at tpaction.com/slash DeSantis.
[00:00:22]  And also come to our door knocking this weekend, Scottsdale, Arizona at tpaction.com/slash events.
[00:00:30]  So check it out.
[00:00:31]  We have an amazing thing that we're doing.
[00:00:34]  It's really great.
[00:00:35]  So check it out.
[00:00:36]  We have a get out the vote operation this Saturday, get out the vote operation in Georgia, get out the vote operation in Michigan, get out the vote operation in Ohio, get out the vote operation in Wisconsin.
[00:00:47]  It's pretty amazing.
[00:00:49]  Buckle up, everybody.
[00:00:50]  Here we go.
[00:00:51]  Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
[00:00:52]  Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
[00:00:54]  I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
[00:00:58]  Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
[00:01:01]  I want to thank Charlie.
[00:01:02]  He's an incredible guy.
[00:01:03]  His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.
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=== Voting Systems and Court Rulings (07:54) ===

[00:01:36]  There is a tremendous amount of confusion regarding Brazil.
[00:01:42]  Brazil is a great country, and it's very, very, let's just say, murky with what is happening in the great country of Brazil.
[00:01:53]  And with us now is someone to help us hopefully get some clarity on this.
[00:01:57]  He's a Brazilian journalist at JP News.
[00:01:59]  It's Paulo Figuerito.
[00:02:02]  Hope I said that right.
[00:02:03]  Paolo, welcome to the program.
[00:02:05]  Thank you, Charlie.
[00:02:06]  You did it perfectly.
[00:02:07]  That's my last name.
[00:02:08]  Hard to get it right since the beginning.
[00:02:11]  All right.
[00:02:11]  Well, I tried my best.
[00:02:13]  So, Paolo, I have many questions here, and thank you for the time.
[00:02:16]  First, let's just start with the most obvious.
[00:02:18]  What the heck is going on right now in Brazil?
[00:02:20]  Oh, my God.
[00:02:22]  That's the longest question.
[00:02:24]  So much going on.
[00:02:25]  So, Brazil has been under the administration of President Bolsonaro, which is a great friend of President Trump.
[00:02:34]  He is considered the Trump of Latin America, very conservative, more towards a national populist view of the world.
[00:02:43]  He's a friend of the common man, common worker.
[00:02:48]  And Brazil has been doing great.
[00:02:49]  We're going to have, for the first time in my life, we're going to have more growth than China this year and less inflation than the U.S., which I know, not the greatest year for China or the U.S., but still a good accomplishment.
[00:03:02]  The country is doing very well doing the reforms and all that.
[00:03:07]  It went through the pandemic fairly well, all things considered.
[00:03:11]  And so last Sunday, we had elections between Bolsonaro, the current president, and Lula.
[00:03:20]  Lula is a socialist from the Workers' Party.
[00:03:24]  He's been in power from 2003.
[00:03:26]  He was in power from 2003 to 2014.
[00:03:31]  And in 2012, I'm sorry.
[00:03:34]  And in 2015, his successor, a lady, was impeached for defrauding public accounts.
[00:03:41]  He was also convicted three times for corruption.
[00:03:45]  Unfortunately, the Supreme Court deemed all his trials invalid.
[00:03:52]  And by the Supreme Courts, I mean justice appointed by him when he was president.
[00:03:57]  So he got away with it.
[00:04:00]  And the whole establishment rehabilitated him to run for office again.
[00:04:05]  So he ran with all the support.
[00:04:07]  It's the same as in the US, all the support from the mainstream media, which is completely leftist in Brazil, with all the support from our Hollywood, meaning the culture, entertainment, all the artists, all the academia, universities, the financial sector, everyone got together to rehabilitate and support Lula.
[00:04:29]  Again, a guy convicted for corruption several times.
[00:04:34]  All his ministers were convicted as well.
[00:04:36]  Biggest scandal in the history of the country.
[00:04:39]  And on the last Sunday, Lula won the elections by a very, very narrow margin.
[00:04:47]  So it was 49.10 Bolsonaro and 50.9 Lula.
[00:04:55]  Okay.
[00:04:55]  So it was very, very narrow.
[00:04:58]  So in Brazil, it's all electronic voting.
[00:05:01]  Okay.
[00:05:01]  Not like in the U.S., there's no paper.
[00:05:03]  Really?
[00:05:04]  Yeah, there's no absentee ballots.
[00:05:06]  So you go in person to do it or you do it on your cell phone or what?
[00:05:10]  No, it's good.
[00:05:10]  You do it in person.
[00:05:11]  That's a good part.
[00:05:12]  You don't have to show ID.
[00:05:13]  So that's what a concept.
[00:05:16]  Bunch of racist.
[00:05:18]  Yeah, I know it sounds weird in some states here in the United States, but you actually have to go in one day in person and you have to show your ID.
[00:05:27]  Okay.
[00:05:27]  So that's the good part.
[00:05:29]  The bad part is that it's all electronic, meaning there's no way to audit or recount or anything.
[00:05:39]  Once you put your vote, vote goes in a machine, machine sends it to a central computer, and the computer tells who won.
[00:05:47]  And the problem is the people that run the central computer are the same guys that freed Lula.
[00:05:55]  Brazil has the supreme electoral court.
[00:05:58]  And the guy that's the president of this court, it's an enemy.
[00:06:01]  It's an open, declared enemy of Bolsonaro and one of the guys that freed Lula.
[00:06:07]  Okay.
[00:06:08]  And during this whole process, the process was very unfair to Bolsonaro, very unfair.
[00:06:14]  And everyone knows it.
[00:06:15]  Bolsonaro, Brazil has a system that the advertising for the candidates is paid by the public.
[00:06:26]  It's not paid by the campaigns.
[00:06:28]  Taxpayers.
[00:06:28]  It's all taxpayers.
[00:06:30]  Yes.
[00:06:31]  So it's all taxpayer funded.
[00:06:33]  So what happened is that Lula got way, way, way more ads than Bolsonaro.
[00:06:38]  Bolsonaro filed a lawsuit in court complaining about that.
[00:06:43]  But surprise, surprise, same as in the U.S., the court said, no, we're not going to look, not even going to look into it.
[00:06:50]  That's so correct.
[00:06:52]  So yeah, the politics in Brazil are extremely similar to the U.S.
[00:06:56]  Yeah, it sounds like it.
[00:06:57]  And the way the establishment treats Bolsonaro is exactly the way that.
[00:07:02]  Let me ask you a question.
[00:07:03]  So if it's all machine voting, why is it that there were anywhere between five to six million invalid votes?
[00:07:10]  That, I mean, you see the tabulation.
[00:07:13]  Oh, it's because you have the opportunity when you're voting.
[00:07:17]  You can even vote blank or new.
[00:07:20]  And that's when you, well, you can even vote wrongly, meaning it's a number.
[00:07:29]  So every two candidates have a number.
[00:07:31]  Bolsonaro was 22.
[00:07:32]  Lula was 13.
[00:07:34]  If you type, for example, 17, it's considered new because there's no candidate with 17.
[00:07:39]  It's going to appear on the screen.
[00:07:41]  That's new.
[00:07:42]  You want to confirm it and you click confirm it.
[00:07:44]  So that's new.
[00:07:45]  And you have the option.
[00:07:46]  There's a key that you press and it's blank.
[00:07:49]  And when you do it, you press blank and the screen shows that you want to vote blank.
[00:07:53]  And it means your vote won't be tabulated.
[00:07:57]  The reason they have that in Brazil is because voting is mandatory in Brazil.
[00:08:02]  It's not optional, like in the U.S. You have to go vote.
[00:08:05]  Otherwise, you get fined.
[00:08:07]  So, and you have to go vote, but you don't need to vote in any of the candidates.
[00:08:11]  So, you can vote even either blank or new.
[00:08:13]  So, these are that's extraordinary.
[00:08:16]  Wow.
[00:08:18]  Don't get me started on that.
[00:08:20]  Mandatory voting, which of course always favors the left.
[00:08:24]  It has always been, and that's why it's so in place.
[00:08:28]  So, the problem is, and that's very weird because it's the first time it happened in history.
[00:08:33]  The way that the data behaved was very weird.
[00:08:38]  Same anomalies that we had similarly as we had in the U.S. in some states.
[00:08:45]  Like the data, Bolsonaro started way ahead on the count, and then Lula started getting votes out of nowhere.
[00:08:52]  And then in an almost fixed rate, and the data behaved, and trust me, I'm an economist as well.
[00:09:00]  So I'm used to data.
[00:09:02]  The data did behave very really.
[00:09:05]  We can't prove there was a fraud fraud on the counting, but definitely weird.
[00:09:11]  What we can say, and that we can say as a fact, is that was a fraud in the process.
[00:09:16]  Bolsonaro was very, very, very, it was very unfair to him.
[00:09:20]  The court decisions, a lot of court decisions against him.
[00:09:24]  He couldn't even use, he couldn't do live, like live streaming.
[00:09:28]  Remember the controversy?

=== Military Coup Fears Emerge (07:15) ===

[00:09:30]  This sounds like our election in 2020.
[00:09:32]  Yes, very much, very much.
[00:09:34]  So now Lula won.
[00:09:36]  And Bolsonaro didn't give a speech, a speech, didn't concede for roughly two and a half days.
[00:09:44]  Okay.
[00:09:46]  And yesterday, he gave a speech.
[00:09:49]  He didn't concede.
[00:09:50]  He said, well, I'm going to follow the Constitution.
[00:09:54]  Thank you for the 58 million votes that I got.
[00:09:57]  It was, he was the, he got more votes than the last election when he was elected.
[00:10:02]  Sounds familiar.
[00:10:03]  Sounds familiar.
[00:10:04]  I know he does.
[00:10:05]  And he thanked the vote.
[00:10:07]  He said, I'm always going to follow the Constitution.
[00:10:10]  Thank you.
[00:10:11]  The country has been having since Monday a lot of protests and especially truck drivers blocking the streets.
[00:10:26]  Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here.
[00:10:28]  Look, you've helped build the wonderful My Pillow into the incredible company it is today.
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[00:11:29]  Paolo, I have to ask you, there seems to be a growing amount of civil unrest in the streets.
[00:11:34]  Is that normal and to be expected after an election?
[00:11:37]  Some people are talking about a military coup or military auditing the votes.
[00:11:40]  What's going on?
[00:11:42]  Well, and that's definitely an interesting subject.
[00:11:47]  So after Lula was declared by the court the winner, Brazil started to see some very, very intense civil unrest.
[00:11:57]  Basically, the truck drivers started blocking the roads and we had over 300.
[00:12:07]  And today we found out there was actually over 600 points of road blockages throughout the country.
[00:12:16]  Okay.
[00:12:17]  And so that was that was like very, very disturbing because Brazil, most of the things in Brazil, a little like the U.S., but more, even more so, because Brazil doesn't have that much, that many railroads.
[00:12:32]  So most of the products in Brazil circulate by trucks.
[00:12:36]  So the logistic in the country started to collapse very, very quickly.
[00:12:42]  And Bolsonaro went on on his very brief speech, a two-minute speech, he said, well, let's not use the same methods as the left.
[00:12:52]  So let's respect the people, people's right to come and go freely.
[00:12:57]  Let's respect private property, but you can peacefully protest.
[00:13:03]  Okay.
[00:13:05]  And he emphasized that.
[00:13:06]  I think he learned the lesson from Trump because Trump said, peacefully march, but the press just got rid of the peacefully.
[00:13:14]  So Bolsonaro emphasized that very much, the peacefully part.
[00:13:20]  At least somebody learned from that.
[00:13:22]  Yeah, we have the we're lucky because Brazilian politics is like the U.S. politics, but two years before.
[00:13:30]  So it sounds like we learned from.
[00:13:32]  Geez, it sounds like it's a lagging indicator.
[00:13:34]  It's like a lagging way.
[00:13:36]  It is.
[00:13:37]  It is.
[00:13:38]  For me, I live in the U.S. I've been here for seven years.
[00:13:41]  So for me, it's always like very surprising to see how the left copies everything that the Democratic Party has been doing.
[00:13:50]  I don't think it's published.
[00:13:51]  By the way, it's not a coincidence.
[00:13:52]  The CIA is likely importing it into your home country.
[00:13:57]  Well, the CIA before that, the Soviets, the Chinese Communist Party has a big role in that as well.
[00:14:03]  So it's a big plot.
[00:14:04]  So do you think a military coup is likely?
[00:14:08]  So today, today's a holiday in Brazil.
[00:14:11]  It's like the day of the dead.
[00:14:13]  Okay.
[00:14:15]  And it's a national holiday.
[00:14:17]  So what happened today was very weird that people started going to the streets and not going to only to the streets, but go to the to military bases and to military headquarters, okay, like our Pentagon.
[00:14:32]  And we're seeing thousands of people.
[00:14:35]  I mean, it's unbelievable.
[00:14:38]  I don't know how many because the press is not covering.
[00:14:41]  What are they doing?
[00:14:43]  They're asking for a military intervention.
[00:14:46]  So in order to understand that, you need to understand that from 1964 to 1985, Brazil was under a military regime, military presidents elected indirectly.
[00:15:00]  Because in 1964, the communists trying to coup in Brazil.
[00:15:04]  Same thing they did in Cuba and most countries in Latin America.
[00:15:08]  But when they tried that, the military intervened and then the military established a military regime, which was more conservative.
[00:15:16]  My grandfather was actually the last president of that regime.
[00:15:20]  Really?
[00:15:21]  Yeah.
[00:15:21]  That's fascinating.
[00:15:22]  And there was a peaceful transition to the civil governments again.
[00:15:28]  All the institutions worked, Congress, the courts, everything.
[00:15:33]  We had moderate freedom of speech.
[00:15:36]  You couldn't criticize the regime, but it could criticize.
[00:15:39]  But the problem is the country boom during those years.
[00:15:43]  Brazil was the second largest economy in the world when the military took over.
[00:15:50]  When they left, Brazil was the eighth.
[00:15:51]  So economically, the country did tremendously.
[00:15:55]  The regular citizen, the crime rates were very low.
[00:16:01]  It was a safe country.
[00:16:02]  It was.
[00:16:03]  It was a safe country.
[00:16:05]  And so could you say that as soon as, quote unquote, they brought in democracy.
[00:16:10]  I mean, there has been shenanigans ever since.
[00:16:12]  Is that fair to say?
[00:16:15]  Democracy is great.
[00:16:17]  The problem is that the left has the ability to transform democracy into a sort of a dictatorship.
[00:16:22]  So Brazil right now is under censorship of the Supreme Court.
[00:16:26]  They're under censorship on social media.
[00:16:29]  A lot of civil liberties are being taken away.
[00:16:32]  So right now, people are deciding between being ruled by a leftist establishment dictatorship and they're asking for a military intervention because we'd rather have a military back again.
[00:16:43]  Phenomenal commentary.
[00:16:44]  Thank you, Paulo.

=== Early Vote Drops in Battlegrounds (15:25) ===

[00:16:45]  I hope everyone checks you out on social media.
[00:16:47]  Really, we'll have you back on soon, and I hope everything remains peaceful in Brazil.
[00:16:50]  Thank you.
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[00:17:57]  Joining us now is a man who has been calling the shots correctly for quite some time.
[00:18:02]  And if I have anything to say about it, he's going to be Skyping or zooming in on election night because I think we could do some great things together and hopefully that historic night.
[00:18:12]  Rich Barris from Big Data Polls, People's Pundit.
[00:18:15]  Rich, welcome back to the program.
[00:18:17]  And thanks for having me back as always, Charlie.
[00:18:20]  Zoom would be better.
[00:18:21]  Whatever.
[00:18:21]  Zoom's clearer for me.
[00:18:22]  Yeah, I know that.
[00:18:23]  I actually Skype.
[00:18:25]  Skype drives me nuts, and I think it drives our wonderful tech team nuts.
[00:18:28]  Skype is the worst.
[00:18:29]  Yeah.
[00:18:29]  So, okay.
[00:18:30]  So, Rich, let's just start big picture.
[00:18:33]  How are you feeling six days out from the midterms?
[00:18:36]  What do you think is the state of the race?
[00:18:38]  So, big picture, Charlie.
[00:18:40]  You know, we're still struggling to reach certain voters, and yet Republicans are doing this well.
[00:18:48]  So, you know, I'm trying to explain to people the significance.
[00:18:53]  We, and you and I have been talking about things like the Hispanic vote for a while.
[00:18:57]  Now, that is very clearly showing up.
[00:18:59]  Reading the early vote tee leaves is tough, and people never do it right.
[00:19:03]  And I always caution people from doing it, but there are some things we can infer from it.
[00:19:07]  I think it's very clear that our polling and what we have been talking about for a while now with the Hispanic vote is coming and bearing fruit.
[00:19:15]  Look at Miami-Dade, but we're so far beyond Florida now.
[00:19:18]  They didn't come out, Charlie, in Clark County, Nevada.
[00:19:22]  It's not, was it the Harry Reid machine, or is that so many of these Hispanics no longer want to vote Democrat?
[00:19:28]  All right.
[00:19:28]  So I think there is very clear evidence we're right.
[00:19:31]  In Arizona, we're in Arizona.
[00:19:34]  Today will be the last day of interviews.
[00:19:36]  And I'm stunned by how well Blake Masters and Kerry Lake are doing with Hispanic voters.
[00:19:41]  What are you hearing?
[00:19:41]  Especially Kerry Lake.
[00:19:42]  What are you hearing?
[00:19:43]  Yeah, Kerry has a lot of Latino Hispanic support.
[00:19:45]  What are you hearing?
[00:19:46]  Man, the most likely Hispanic voter to vote is a Kerry Lake voter.
[00:19:52]  So if she edged out Hobbes among Hispanics overall, it'll be because they were so pumped to vote.
[00:19:59]  Look, early voting is basically done in Arizona.
[00:20:02]  I mean, so, I mean, it's over and we know what the numbers look like.
[00:20:06]  They don't look great for Democrats.
[00:20:08]  I don't care what all some of these people are.
[00:20:11]  They're trying not to doom over the poll numbers nationally and in some of these battleground states.
[00:20:16]  So they're looking for, you know, little diamonds in the rough.
[00:20:19]  And the early vote is the new one this week, right?
[00:20:22]  Well, look at how well we did in Pennsylvania.
[00:20:25]  You're well below your 2020 levels.
[00:20:27]  In North Carolina, Democrats, their advantage is the lowest it has ever been.
[00:20:32]  In Arizona, they did not come out.
[00:20:34]  In Cork County, no firewall.
[00:20:37]  In Arizona, we're only down a couple points.
[00:20:39]  Republicans are in early voting returns.
[00:20:41]  We don't know how independents are voting, but we think they're skewing our way, which is great.
[00:20:46]  And back in 2020, it was an eight-point deficit.
[00:20:49]  And so, Charlie, we're talking about a six to eight point early voting deficit and rich.
[00:20:56]  And when I go to events, we were there last night with Carrie Lake, 1,300 people.
[00:21:00]  I say, who plans to vote on election day?
[00:21:01]  Every hand goes up.
[00:21:03]  Well, this is the thing.
[00:21:04]  And I know the Arizona Republican Party is trying to get people not to drop their ballot off on Election Day.
[00:21:10]  And I heard you were one of those voters.
[00:21:12]  But 15%, 15%, they're getting their ballot in the mail and they're holding it and they refuse to drop it off early.
[00:21:20]  I'm a holder.
[00:21:20]  You're a holder.
[00:21:21]  That's going to take time.
[00:21:23]  That's going to mean those ballots will take time to count, but you're good with that.
[00:21:26]  I'm good with it.
[00:21:27]  It's better than putting it in the mail, is what I'm trying to say, though.
[00:21:30]  It's better than just sending it off into the mail into the distance.
[00:21:33]  But the early voting returns, Rich, I mean, in-person early voting and or vote by mail, Democrats usually slaughter Republicans on it nationwide.
[00:21:42]  That's right.
[00:21:43]  And it is not a slaughter.
[00:21:44]  I mean, you expect to be down on that, but it's conceivable because I mean, Arizona counts their elections like Nicaraguan elections, right?
[00:21:52]  So it's going to be the first tranche.
[00:21:54]  It's conceivable Kerry Lake will only be down a couple points in that first tranche, is it not?
[00:21:58]  It is.
[00:21:58]  And I'm looking at it right now.
[00:22:01]  And I got to tell you, this is a different race than we polled even a few days ago.
[00:22:07]  You want to hear something really interesting on the Senate level?
[00:22:09]  The first night of polling, we did hear Mark Victor was about to drop out.
[00:22:14]  It didn't get reported until the next day, but we had heard from multiple people.
[00:22:18]  Mark Victor is out.
[00:22:19]  He's going to endorse Blake Masters.
[00:22:20]  Libertarian.
[00:22:21]  That day.
[00:22:22]  Yeah.
[00:22:22]  Libertarian.
[00:22:23]  That day he was receiving 3% of the vote in the nightly interviews.
[00:22:27]  We collected about 300 and change.
[00:22:29]  The next day, he was down below one and a half.
[00:22:31]  And guess where all that vote went?
[00:22:32]  Well, so that's how attentive the libertarian voters are.
[00:22:36]  Is that right?
[00:22:38]  None of them wanted to vote early.
[00:22:39]  That's another boon for Blake Masters.
[00:22:41]  None of them wanted to vote early.
[00:22:43]  They wanted to hold their, I mean, some did, of course, you know, that's statistics, but the overwhelming majority said, I'm an election day voter and I'm going to vote for Mark Victor.
[00:22:52]  Well, now that's over.
[00:22:53]  I wish we would have, you know, we pulled the trigger before we had heard that.
[00:22:57]  I almost wish we would have waited a few more hours and then we would have gotten that news and we could have, have you heard that Mark Victor dropped out and endorsed Blake Masters?
[00:23:06]  So now who are you going to vote for, right?
[00:23:08]  But it's too late for that now.
[00:23:09]  So we'll just have to.
[00:23:10]  But what I can see is that Victor's support has fallen.
[00:23:14]  So these people knew that Mark Victor dropped out and endorsed Blake Masters because he fell masters ticked up.
[00:23:21]  So, and very clear.
[00:23:23]  Samples overall, 62% Maricopa.
[00:23:26]  Here's another fun fact.
[00:23:27]  We know registered voter, it should be R plus five, the sample that we've collected so far.
[00:23:33]  Overall, it should be R plus five, roughly 38% Republican, 33% Democrat, the rest Independent.
[00:23:42]  Yet it's not.
[00:23:43]  It's only 29% Democrat, 28% Democrat.
[00:23:47]  So once again, in Arizona, 5% of registered voters who are Democrats refuse to self-identify.
[00:23:54]  So when we call them or we text them, they refuse to tell us that they're a Democrat.
[00:23:59]  So they're either pretending to be independents or they're spoiled on their party.
[00:24:04]  They're disenfranchised.
[00:24:06]  We saw this with Republicans in 18.
[00:24:09]  This is a bad sign for an incumbent party when part of your own vote doesn't want to self-identify as your party.
[00:24:16]  It's a bad sign.
[00:24:18]  It tells you also on the Republican side, you're going to have more Republicans vote through on Republican.
[00:24:24]  On the Democrat side, you'll have more defections.
[00:24:26]  Is that fair to say?
[00:24:27]  So they'll drop more than Republican.
[00:24:29]  I mean, you're going to have some McCainite people that are registered Republicans that just, you know, vote Democrat because they hate themselves.
[00:24:35]  But, you know, it's just, there's not as much drop off.
[00:24:38]  And that's also in Arizona.
[00:24:39]  You know, I think a lot of the Democrat modeling is messed up because there was a lot of Trump hatred in Arizona in that kind of upper middle class, suburban, we liked John McCain.
[00:24:49]  We didn't like the way he went after it.
[00:24:51]  I think that's a non-factor in this election.
[00:24:54]  Yeah, I honestly, when we first polled this right before the primary and we did a Kerry Lake versus Hobbes hypothetical, Kerry Lake had a big chunk.
[00:25:05]  She was doing better with independents than other Republicans.
[00:25:08]  So it was still close because she actually had a one-point lead, but there was still a big chunk of Republicans who were saying, I don't know, or I'll vote for somebody else.
[00:25:16]  Maybe I'll write somebody in.
[00:25:17]  She won these people over.
[00:25:18]  This is a wrap.
[00:25:20]  She is overwhelmingly winning a good enough chunk of the Republican base.
[00:25:25]  And again, even if they don't show up in exit polls as defections, meaning they don't tell the exit pollster, I'm a Democrat.
[00:25:32]  I'm telling you, they're going to be in the independent margin and they're going to defect.
[00:25:36]  So they may just come across as an independent voter who went Republican this time.
[00:25:41]  The generic ballot, really ugly in Arizona, really ugly.
[00:25:45]  So O'Halloran is done.
[00:25:47]  He's finished.
[00:25:47]  And this is another point, one I want to bring myself to, because that brings in the suburban white woman, a district like that.
[00:25:54]  It's no longer, and Schweikert is another one who has to contend with that.
[00:25:57]  It's no longer about the Hispanic vote shift.
[00:26:00]  All of these big generic ballots, leads that are coming out for Republicans.
[00:26:04]  You know, another one, by the way, Quinnipiak above everyone just came out with a registered voter, Republican plus four.
[00:26:11]  Republicans carrying the Hispanic vote.
[00:26:14]  Stop it.
[00:26:14]  Quinnipiak is R plus four and Republicans are carrying the Hispanic vote.
[00:26:19]  White college degree women, big swing to Republicans.
[00:26:24]  We're all seeing this, or I would say the consensus is seeing this.
[00:26:27]  But Charlie, I want to caution because in 2014, in 2018, in 2020, national polling is simply put for the layman term, easier.
[00:26:36]  And it's often you will see these trends before you will see them in the states.
[00:26:40]  And sometimes pollsters just run out of time and we don't catch the full scope of what happened.
[00:26:46]  And then that definitely happened in 2014.
[00:26:49]  And I think it started earlier this time, but state polls are so bad, they're not picking it up.
[00:26:55]  I'm only now seeing what that means in states like Pennsylvania, in Arizona, in Nevada, by the way, which I think we're going to have ours out soon.
[00:27:03]  I mean, Laxalt, dude, he's going to win.
[00:27:07]  I mean, the white vote widened out to something we're more used to, and Hispanics really didn't budge.
[00:27:15]  So, yeah, I want to go around the horn with you, Rich, here, and you're doing a great job.
[00:27:18]  Yeah, let's do it.
[00:27:19]  For everyone, we'll bounce around, but I want our audience to know it's People's Pundit, big data poll, Rich is the best.
[00:27:24]  But, Rich, let me just ask the obvious question.
[00:27:26]  What could go wrong?
[00:27:28]  I guess the only thing that could go wrong is if we stay at home and we don't see that overwhelming surge.
[00:27:34]  Is that right?
[00:27:34]  Am I missing something?
[00:27:36]  No, you nailed it, Charlie.
[00:27:37]  That's it.
[00:27:38]  The only thing that can go wrong is that Republicans and independent leaning, you know, Republican leaning independents don't show up.
[00:27:46]  I mean, that's really it.
[00:27:48]  In Pennsylvania, for instance, and I know you want to go around, but you know, that's great.
[00:27:51]  Pennsylvania has this huge lead on election day, huge lead on election day.
[00:27:56]  But he's getting slaughtered in what's been cast in early vote.
[00:27:59]  So, you know, if they don't show up in big numbers, you know, then that's a problem.
[00:28:04]  But the good news is 90% of Republicans told us they were going to vote on election day, 90%.
[00:28:10]  And 70% roughly of independents told us that they would vote on election day.
[00:28:17]  So, you know, that, and these voters have the vote history to back them up.
[00:28:20]  However, there are some states where we are seeing new voters and, you know, Republicans have the edge with them.
[00:28:27]  So in Pennsylvania, it's not one of them.
[00:28:29]  New voters is skewing Democrat.
[00:28:31]  But again, that's only because all they're looking at right now is early vote.
[00:28:36]  Come election day, I think that's going to change.
[00:28:38]  You know, from more early vote states like Georgia and Texas, Florida, we're seeing new voters absolutely favor Republicans.
[00:28:47]  So it's just that Pennsylvania is more of an election day state.
[00:28:50]  And you, again, I got to emphasize this again.
[00:28:52]  You nailed it.
[00:28:53]  That's what could go wrong.
[00:28:54]  You show up to vote, Republicans show up to vote.
[00:28:57]  They're going to have a very good night.
[00:29:00]  I'm telling you, if we have the same day election turnout that I think we're going to have, I think we're going to overwhelm the system.
[00:29:06]  I really do.
[00:29:06]  I think it's, I mean, that's the last ingredient, right?
[00:29:10]  Which is, do you bring three friends to the polls?
[00:29:13]  I mean, I think the Democrats really don't know how big that turnout is going to be.
[00:29:17]  But if we're even close to presidential style turnout, I mean, we're going to see something that we've never seen before.
[00:29:23]  If Georgia's any indication, because Georgia is warming up to early vote, and maybe, you know, 15, 20% will be election day vote, they've completely flipped.
[00:29:33]  And they did that in the primary as well.
[00:29:35]  We saw a massive historic turnout in Georgia.
[00:29:38]  If that's what happens, you know, you know, across the board, Charlie, and you use the term overwhelm the system, you have to do that.
[00:29:46]  They want nothing more than for you to stay home.
[00:29:49]  That's what they want.
[00:29:50]  And by the way, when we talk about all the crazy stuff that could go on, it's much easier if you stay home.
[00:29:55]  If you cast your vote, you're taking that vote off the table.
[00:29:57]  If you get what I'm saying, people cast your vote.
[00:30:00]  So, yeah, I'm thinking it probably will be a little bit below 2018 only because Democrats are not at all in the enthusiasm levels that we saw in 2018.
[00:30:12]  But Republicans are on par with like, you know, they're up there, Charlie.
[00:30:17]  They're up there.
[00:30:18]  Yeah.
[00:30:19]  Just need to remind all of you to remain calm on election night.
[00:30:22]  If it looks like everybody, everything is going crazy and you don't know who's winning and what's going on.
[00:30:27]  And it's going to take a while, right, Rich?
[00:30:29]  They say voting week.
[00:30:31]  Yeah, Charlie, you know, each state is different.
[00:30:34]  Yours, Arizona, it's going to be like the primary was.
[00:30:38]  Washington state, you know, if that Senate race does end up closer than we like, we think it will, we won't know for days and days.
[00:30:46]  I was just looking during the break on Arizona and, you know, those voters we were just talking about.
[00:30:52]  If you're holding your ballot and you're going to drop it off on election day, that is an 80% Kerry Lake vote.
[00:31:00]  It's huge.
[00:31:01]  It's 77% Blake Masters.
[00:31:03]  So it's going to throw you off quite a bit.
[00:31:07]  And then the Election Day vote obviously will get counted in a state like Arizona, but it will be very different depending on and in places that are total nightmares and just chaotic disasters like Pennsylvania.
[00:31:18]  They're going to, there's going to be an early vote drop that's going to be very big.
[00:31:22]  It's going to be a slaughter fest, big Democrat margins.
[00:31:25]  Then they'll count the election day vote.
[00:31:27]  We'll get an idea of where that vote really is going to end up.
[00:31:30]  And then we'll have to wait for late arriving ballots.
[00:31:33]  And it's very much the same way in North Carolina.
[00:31:36]  I know.
[00:31:37]  I mean, Pennsylvania will be all week.
[00:31:39]  Pennsylvania is going to be always.
[00:31:41]  But we should know.
[00:31:42]  I mean, if Carrie Lake is only down a couple points with mail and ballots, if she's down like four or five points, she's going to win.
[00:31:49]  So that's over what she can do.
[00:31:52]  Her margins are so big on elections.
[00:31:53]  She could be down 10 points.
[00:31:54]  She could do it if she's down.
[00:31:55]  She could be down 10 points.
[00:31:57]  But if she's down four or five, which I think she will be, I'm going to tell our audience, like, this is a great sign for Carrie.
[00:32:04]  But I think Blake Master, if Kerry's down three or four and Blake is down seven or eight, we're cooking with gas.
[00:32:09]  All right, Rich, I want to go really quick.

=== New Hampshire Election Margins (03:32) ===

[00:32:11]  Don Boldick, New Hampshire, where did this come from?
[00:32:15]  You know, honestly, it shouldn't have came from left field.
[00:32:18]  It's a late primary.
[00:32:19]  The incumbent is basically given an advantage, a structural advantage.
[00:32:23]  You know, Mitch McConnell and the NRSC, they're completely spastic with their strategy.
[00:32:29]  I'm in, I'm out, I'm in.
[00:32:31]  I'm out.
[00:32:31]  That is the best word I've heard to describe it.
[00:32:36]  It's crazy, Charlie.
[00:32:37]  It's New Hampshire.
[00:32:38]  Biden won it by seven.
[00:32:40]  We know we've been looking at what could be a national swing of 10 points or more.
[00:32:44]  So that puts New Hampshire well within that range.
[00:32:47]  The polling before had shown you have a very popular governor.
[00:32:50]  He's going to cruise to re-election.
[00:32:52]  He's going to help down ballot candidates and the Senate candidate.
[00:32:56]  They want to vote for Republicans in their state legislature.
[00:32:59]  New Hampshire won is now going to Caroline Levin.
[00:33:03]  That makes New Hampshire is the story.
[00:33:06]  New Hampshire, too.
[00:33:07]  You know, if it's close in New Hampshire, too, then Democrats are going to have a very bad night.
[00:33:12]  But Baldak always had a chance because when we look at things that matter, the fundamentals, they favored the Republican candidate inevitably.
[00:33:20]  But the question of Maggie Assan, her favorables, her approvals, and the question of whether or not you think she deserves re-election, that all was always negative for her.
[00:33:30]  She was always underwater.
[00:33:32]  And it got more underwater in this last Anselm College poll.
[00:33:37]  She even, her image deteriorated even further.
[00:33:39]  That's not the case for Jean Shaheen, who was the last one to run in a pro-Republican midterm.
[00:33:45]  She barely held on, barely, but she's popular.
[00:33:49]  And that's not the case with Maggie Assan, has never been.
[00:33:53]  She has always been underwater on approvals and favorables.
[00:33:56]  So to go in and out of that state the way they did was a tragedy.
[00:34:00]  But I think at this point, Baldak is a slight favorite.
[00:34:03]  I really believe that.
[00:34:04]  I do.
[00:34:06]  Yeah, I see it the same way.
[00:34:08]  Okay, really quick.
[00:34:08]  Lee Zeldon.
[00:34:11]  Closer than it ever should be.
[00:34:15]  And he's outpacing Republicans in the congressional level.
[00:34:18]  So it doesn't matter what competitive district we look at when it comes to governors, you know, the governor preference.
[00:34:24]  Zeldin is outpacing Hochul.
[00:34:26]  I know that there was one last poll that came out yesterday that showed Hochul expanding the lead a little bit.
[00:34:30]  I looked at it.
[00:34:31]  I think their turnout model is a little too rosy for Democrats.
[00:34:35]  The bottom line, even they have Zeldon doing very well in the five boroughs, and it really will come down to that.
[00:34:40]  We know he's going to win Suffolk and Nassau, right?
[00:34:44]  All those areas where Republicans used to win, but have been struggling, even if they edge him out a little bit.
[00:34:49]  And upstate, he'll probably win Clinton, you know, in areas where at the presidential level, Republicans barely lose.
[00:34:57]  But at the bottom, really in the bottom of the ninth, if it's close, what it will come down to is how well Lee Zeldon does in the five boroughs.
[00:35:05]  And if you look at, for instance, the Quinnipiac poll, even if they're off by the overall, not the sub-sample era, overall, the sampling era, and Zeldin does three points better, four points better, he's going to do it.
[00:35:19]  It's a race.
[00:35:20]  It is a race.
[00:35:21]  Rich, we got to go.
[00:35:21]  Got to have you back on soon.
[00:35:23]  Everybody, vote, vote, vote.
[00:35:24]  Get all your friends to go vote.
[00:35:26]  That is the old brother.
[00:35:27]  The only thing that could go wrong right now is if we don't show up.
[00:35:30]  Rich, thank you so much.
[00:35:31]  Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
[00:35:32]  Email me your thoughts.
[00:35:33]  As always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
[00:35:35]  Thank you so much for listening.
[00:35:36]  God bless.
[00:35:39]  For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.