The Charlie Kirk Show - Why Trump Will Win with Trafalgar Group Pollster Robert Cahaly Aired: 2020-10-31 Duration: 34:39 === Exclusive Polling Conversation (01:38) === [00:00:00] Hey everybody, we have an exclusive conversation with Robert Cahaley from the Trafalgar Group. [00:00:04] And we dive deep into the polling and he thinks Trump is going to win and he's going to tell you why. [00:00:09] Please consider supporting our advertise-a free episode, charliekirk.com/slash support, charliekirk.com/slash support. [00:00:15] And if you want to win a signed copy of the MAGA Doctrine, type in Charlie Kirk Show to your podcast provider, hit subscribe, give us a five-star review, screenshot it, and email it to us at freedom at charliekirk.com. [00:00:25] Robert Cahaly is here. [00:00:27] Buckle up, everybody. [00:00:28] Here we go. [00:00:29] Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. [00:00:31] Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus. [00:00:33] I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk. [00:00:36] Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks. [00:00:40] I want to thank Charlie. [00:00:41] He's an incredible guy. [00:00:42] His spirit, his love of this country. [00:00:43] He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created. [00:00:49] Turning point USA. [00:00:50] We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country. [00:00:59] That's why we are here. [00:01:03] This is the most important election of our lifetime. [00:01:06] Our values, our security, and our future are on the ballot. [00:01:11] Every American deserves to have their voice heard and their vote counted. [00:01:15] So visit yourvote2020.org to find your polling location. [00:01:20] Get to the polls, cast your ballot, visit yourvote2020.org because your voice, your values, your vote have never been more important. [00:01:29] Paid for by America First Policies Inc. [00:01:35] Hey, everybody, welcome to this episode of the Charlie Kirk Show. === Fighting for Freedom on Campuses (02:35) === [00:01:38] We are inundated with polling. [00:01:41] Seems like you can't turn on your TV or open up your smartphone to any sort of news site without polls. [00:01:46] I've showed Donald Trump down historically to Joe Biden. [00:01:49] There is one polling firm, though, that seems to think differently with us right now is Robert Cahaley from the Trafalgar Group. [00:01:58] Robert, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show. [00:02:00] That's good to be here. [00:02:02] So, Robert, you accurately predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016. [00:02:07] I'll never forget, I was going to the RealClear Politics polling averages, and the night before the election, you had Donald Trump up one point in Michigan. [00:02:16] I'll never forget it. [00:02:17] And I looked through it and I looked at your crosstabs and I said, I can see that, especially as you had the Upper Peninsula going heavily for Trump. [00:02:24] And I looked at some of the other competitive polling firms that were not doing a lot of polling there. [00:02:28] And you predicted 2016. [00:02:30] What are you seeing right now on the landscape? [00:02:33] How is the president doing based on your polling and the methodology you have developed? [00:02:38] He's doing extremely well. [00:02:41] What you have right now is a movement of a few key constituencies. [00:02:47] One, the black community is absolutely moving. [00:02:51] There's a lot of the vote. [00:02:54] We refer to it as kind of the hidden note. [00:02:56] People who are saying, for whatever reason, they're undecided or they're voting for a third party candidate or something. [00:03:02] Well, about 10 days ago, that just stopped. [00:03:04] And all the undecided, everything fell away across all the Battleground states with the black vote. [00:03:10] And the black community had just gotten very much. [00:03:14] Those that were undecided and were unclear where they were going are all just lined up with Trump. [00:03:19] And it's over 26% in Michigan right now. [00:03:23] You also have John James, who's an excellent candidate, where some of the other candidates are a little bit of a drag on the president. [00:03:30] Not about them, but they're incumbents. [00:03:34] And, you know, it's hard for them to run as an outsider. [00:03:36] Trump has managed to be an incumbent and also run as an outsider, but John James is an outsider and a business person like Trump. [00:03:43] So they're mutually beneficial to each other. [00:03:46] And you can't forget that the key to both their victory is Gretchen Whitmer. [00:03:52] She couldn't be any more popular if she was just a pile of steaming, you know what? [00:03:57] So it is very, very nice for them to have her providing the contrast, what people can vote against. [00:04:06] And so especially with Biden having, at the debate, kind of defined himself as the shutdown candidate. === Running as an Outsider (06:38) === [00:04:14] And we're seeing things break that way. [00:04:15] We're even seeing young people move that way now. [00:04:18] But every indicator in Michigan is getting better. [00:04:21] So I want to talk about that. [00:04:23] But first, can you just give us some idea of why your methodology is different? [00:04:26] Because most of the other polling firms have a completely different analysis of what's happening in the race. [00:04:32] What makes your way of doing polling different? [00:04:36] A few key differences. [00:04:38] First, we do not believe in long questionnaires. [00:04:42] They're not, it's not, I mean, think about how busy people are in this modern world. [00:04:46] Who's got time at seven o'clock to answer 25 questions? [00:04:49] The number one question you get when you call a home in the evening and you say it's a poll is how long is this going to take? [00:04:57] And when the answer is, it's going to take 15 minutes. [00:04:59] It's going to take 20 minutes because there are 30 questions, 40 questions. [00:05:03] People just say no thanks. [00:05:05] And you end up with people who are too harsh in their positions on the right or the left being the ones who take all these polls. [00:05:12] We've got to get to the average person. [00:05:14] The average person doesn't have time for all this nonsense. [00:05:16] So we've got to get them in and out quick. [00:05:18] We tell them, you're going to be on the phone less than three minutes, you know, six or seven questions, and you'll be done. [00:05:24] And we get average people to participate. [00:05:27] That's the first thing. [00:05:28] Second, we minimize the social desirability bias, which is that bias that's based on people giving an answer that they think will make them look best in the eyes of the person answering, asking the question versus their actual truth. [00:05:44] You know, kind of the politeness and don't want to create an awkward moment. [00:05:48] And quite often they feel like saying that for Trump will create that awkward moment. [00:05:53] Or they'll be judged for it or they don't know whether it's a real poll. [00:05:56] Somebody's going to put this on tape, whatever. [00:05:59] So we do a mix of different ways to participate, most of which are digital, in addition to those live calls. [00:06:07] And we work very hard to give them a real sense of anonymity because the more anonymous someone is, the more honest they are. [00:06:14] Most of these polls are literally a live person saying they know exactly who they are. [00:06:19] And that's the worst way to poll. [00:06:22] Last, we learned in 2016 that you need to poll audience of people that don't usually get polled. [00:06:30] And so we've developed criteria for low propensity voters we think are likely to participate in this election as we did in 16. [00:06:38] And so we're polling a little bit different likely voter universe. [00:06:42] Actually, I said this was last, but one more because we believe in lots of samples. [00:06:47] These 600 samples, that's ridiculous. [00:06:50] Every state, 1,000 samples, no exceptions. [00:06:54] It gets you below 300. [00:06:56] We have 3% margin error most of the time. [00:06:58] And it's just a more effective way to do it. [00:07:01] And that kind of number, any kind of oversampling, any small errors that you can make in any poll are minimized. [00:07:10] And so that makes us very different from the industry standard. [00:07:13] And we don't mind being different. [00:07:15] So the industry standard, is it a lot of phone polling? [00:07:18] Is it the same type of pool of people they speak to? [00:07:21] Can you just walk us through what does polling mean today? [00:07:24] And I have a lot of specific questions, but our audience is just curious, what exactly does it mean to run a poll? [00:07:31] Well, it really depends on the group. [00:07:33] Some, which I think are completely horrible, use this thing called a pool of people who have agreed to be poll takers, people who have filled out some kind of survey. [00:07:44] In some cases, they've been compensated to be a poll-taking universe. [00:07:48] Well, that's as far, I mean, think about how many average people you know have time to be poll takers. [00:07:54] So you're going to start really skewed. [00:07:56] They got to care way too much about politics to be a poll taker. [00:08:00] So I dismiss most of that. [00:08:02] Average polls, too, also have crazy long questions. [00:08:06] You know, these questions that you have to read a paragraph and then they ask the question. [00:08:10] I mean, that's just too much. [00:08:12] People's attention spans just aren't that long anymore. [00:08:16] And a lot of the time they use what they call every registered voter. [00:08:21] Some polls even just call every phone number they can get, irrespective of whether people are registered to vote. [00:08:27] And they, you know, they do a lot of calling people just on the phones, cell phones, and home lines. [00:08:35] And again, you've got to get people, average people have a hard time participating in those or don't want to. [00:08:41] And you're really going to underrepresent an entire segment of the population. [00:08:45] I mean, young people have no interest in picking up that phone and talking live, but they will participate in a text poll. [00:08:52] We never have to worry about undersampling young people. [00:08:55] The text has been very effective for us. [00:08:57] It gives people the ability to respond at their convenience. [00:09:00] They can answer question number one at nine o'clock at night, question number two the next morning. [00:09:05] And these guys put you basically what they do is you get that phone call and it puts you on the spot right then to give an answer. [00:09:12] And I just, I think it's not very conducive to kind of the way we live our modern life. [00:09:20] So what makes your methodology different than Nate Silver? [00:09:24] Because he gets a lot of headlines and he has come after you and says that what you're saying is not true. [00:09:32] In some ways, I know people that react to those polls. [00:09:34] They're less likely to vote. [00:09:35] They're less likely to be engaged or involved. [00:09:38] What is his approach versus your approach and just specifically? [00:09:44] Because the findings could not be more different. [00:09:46] Nate Silver's website, he has Joe Biden with almost a 90% chance of victory. [00:09:53] And he has Joe Biden up five or six points in Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Florida. [00:09:59] You're almost on the opposite. [00:10:00] It's almost a 10-point. [00:10:02] Is it just a different polling universe, the methodology, or do you think that there's bias in some of these other pollsters? [00:10:09] Well, Nate's website is actually more a aggregator of other polls. [00:10:16] So he can always rely on the idea of he's only as good as the information given him and he crunches numbers. [00:10:22] And I think he's a decent number cruncher. [00:10:25] I mean, we just disagree with how to rank and to rate polls because he still believes in the live call and that people are always honest on the live call. [00:10:34] I don't. [00:10:35] I think that's insane. [00:10:36] So, and so many of the media pollsters recognize and participate in his site. [00:10:42] But the point I always like to make is, if ours were so bad, then why include us? [00:10:48] Because all we do is move his site more to the middle, which is where he really needs to be. === The Hidden Vote Movement (15:36) === [00:10:53] So we actually do a great service to them. [00:10:55] But the other thing you have to remember is Nate's job is to make money for his company. [00:11:01] And his company makes money on clicks, not accurate polling. [00:11:05] And so I think he's doing very well at what he's doing. [00:11:07] So let's get specific here. [00:11:09] You said that you are starting to see some good trends with younger voters. [00:11:13] Tell us more about that because we've been saying about that for quite some time now. [00:11:17] What are some of the specifics you're saying with younger voters? [00:11:20] What we're seeing out of younger voters is they do not like this idea of a further shutdown. [00:11:27] He wouldn't, you know, ask to the debate, Biden would not rule out shutting things down again. [00:11:35] And there's just, I mean, whether it's younger voters or business owners or hourly workers, they just don't think that's the solution. [00:11:44] And so a lot of these younger voters are telling us, hey, there's a lot about Trump they don't like, but they are not interested in having to not go to class, having to not do social gatherings with their friends, and that they really don't see the danger. [00:11:59] They don't see a lot of their friends having major ramifications from even the ones who've gotten it. [00:12:06] And the reality of how little effect it has on young people isn't missed by young people, and they're ready to get back to life. [00:12:14] So can you give us just some numbers to show some of the movement that you're seeing with younger voters? [00:12:19] For example, our most recent poll in Florida, where Trump had been down in the past, we've seen a significant tick up. [00:12:28] And I think one of the, not staring at it right now because I've looked at so many of these, but one of the age groups, he was actually winning and he wasn't even winning before. [00:12:37] And, you know, when we're at, you know, we're following up and asking these guys, what's different? [00:12:42] And I think the debate was different. [00:12:45] And just, you know, it's kind of become a chatter. [00:12:47] I mean, and they're also seeing things like pop stars kind of being for Trump. [00:12:52] You know, we saw a lot of reaction to the little Wayne coming out for Trump. [00:12:56] It's just this idea that it's suddenly getting kind of cool to be for Trump. [00:13:00] And at the same time, even if it's not cool to be for Trump in your social circle, it's cool to go back to school and to get past this stuff. [00:13:11] So what do you think the impact of the closed universities have on this election? [00:13:16] Do you think that helps Democrats or do you think those people are going to vote anyway? [00:13:20] I think it hurts Democrats because one, kids that want to go back to school, kids that want to actually go to class instead of sitting in dorms at the universities are inclined to vote for whoever's going to open it back up. [00:13:34] Two, the most effective way they organized these efforts in the past was big things on campus, big parties where they get everybody together, they take them to the county square or wherever to vote on a bus. [00:13:48] They bring it back. [00:13:49] They have these big parties and all these events. [00:13:52] So what you're saying is that a lot of the vote gathering and enthusiasm is actually concentrated usually on university campuses. [00:13:58] Them being closed does not help the Democrats. [00:14:01] Can you show, what are we seeing in the early voting numbers? [00:14:05] We just have about a minute left, but with those university campuses, are they seeing a decline in voter turnout? [00:14:10] Are they seeing a decline in the type of enthusiasm that otherwise would have existed at these university campuses? [00:14:17] Absolutely. [00:14:17] These university campuses rely on major efforts, literally loading people up on buses, either for early voting on the weekends or during the week. [00:14:29] And without that effort, individual efforts are just not the same. [00:14:35] There's a generation of guys and girls who only went to vote because they got put on a bus and they came back to a party with lots of beer and pizza. [00:14:43] And nobody's throwing those parties this year. [00:14:45] Well, that's exactly right. [00:14:47] We are seeing that in a lot of the work that we are doing at Turning Point Action on university campuses. [00:14:52] Ohio state voter registration was down 94%. [00:14:56] And with these campuses shut down, you're not going to see the same ballot harvesting or enthusiasm. [00:15:01] And that will have a tapering effect for the Democrats. [00:15:04] And I see our younger voters, Trump supporters, they'll vote no matter where they are. [00:15:08] They'll vote if they're at home, if they're on campus, in dorm rooms. [00:15:11] That's where that enthusiasm advantage really starts to materialize and make a big difference. [00:15:15] So Robert, I see that you have polls that show Donald Trump doing a lot better in the industrial rust belt. [00:15:20] Give us the update of how Trump is doing state by state based on the data you're collecting. [00:15:25] We feel like he is definitely winning in Michigan. [00:15:29] You know, but for Kanye, he'd be winning in Minnesota right now. [00:15:33] When you poll it without Kanye, he's ahead. [00:15:35] When you poll it with Kanye, he's a little bit behind almost exactly the margin that Kanye's taking, which is about 3.3 right now. [00:15:44] We feel like it's very close to even in Wisconsin. [00:15:47] And I think he's ahead. [00:15:48] I think our last poll is two, maybe 2.5 in Pennsylvania. [00:15:53] I will say Pennsylvania with one caveat. [00:15:55] I think it's the state with the most likely to be stolen. [00:15:58] And so I believe if he doesn't win by 4% or more, he will win Pennsylvania, but actually have it stolen from him. [00:16:05] So tell us more about that. [00:16:07] What are you seeing in Pennsylvania? [00:16:08] What's your biggest fear of that election being stolen? [00:16:10] It acting like Pennsylvania always acts and like Philadelphia always acts. [00:16:14] And it's bad. [00:16:16] Well, what specifically, though? [00:16:18] Just voter fraud, voter registration fraud? [00:16:21] Red registration fraud, voter fraud on election day, systematically within the they have a court system. [00:16:33] They're supposed to be able to take and adjudicate people who aren't allowed to vote and they're just kind of wave them through and let them vote anyway. [00:16:41] People look the other way in the voter registration areas. [00:16:46] And we already had a Pennsylvania Supreme Court rule that, well, the postmark's not that important. [00:16:53] I mean, this is systematic. [00:16:56] They're very good at this. [00:16:58] Yeah, but your polling reflects that President Trump has more than a chance to win in Pennsylvania if it was a fair fight. [00:17:06] Oh, if it was a fair fight, it ought to be over. [00:17:08] But I still think he can get to the 4%, 5% it takes to win and outpace the voter fraud. [00:17:14] So what is your biggest, what is your biggest surprise that you have found in polling in the last couple weeks and months of doing this? [00:17:22] What's been the big development that you did not even expect to see in the data that you've been gathering? [00:17:29] The complete collapse of undecided in the black vote. [00:17:36] We were seeing high teens. [00:17:37] We figured he would finish in the low 20s and that some of that undecided vote would go to various different places. [00:17:46] But all of a sudden, when it started getting trendy to be for Trump among some of the recognized leaders, when they started realizing what his record was on issues that have to do with things that are very near and dear to the black community, [00:18:02] and when they realize exactly who Joe Biden is and some of his obnoxious statements, they've just fallen in a way that I could not have dreamed they would. [00:18:17] I've never thought we'd be seeing closing in on 30% in some of these states. [00:18:22] I mean, above 25 across the board in states with large black populations. [00:18:28] And there's no question in my mind, when Trump wins this election, it will be unquestionably due to the fact that the black vote can no longer be taken for granted. [00:18:40] They're not acting monolithically, and they deserve the credit for delivering this election. [00:18:46] Do you think that a lot of the other polling firms are not diving deep enough into the black community as far as trying to, are they not seeing this break as well, or are they seeing it and ignoring it? [00:19:00] I think Ras Mussen has been seeing this a little bit as well. [00:19:04] What is the reason that you've been able to pinpoint that? [00:19:07] Well, one, I think it's about getting to people in the way that they are most comfortable answering a poll. [00:19:13] And, you know, a lot of folks in that community do not tend to answer the home line. [00:19:18] I mean, a lot of people I know don't answer the home line in any community. [00:19:22] But what we found is when you give them, much like you young people, when you give some of these folks the chance to participate online, when you give them a chance to participate with a text or an email, you're going to get better representation. [00:19:37] you're going to get people who are going to participate, especially the younger folks. [00:19:41] You know, the way to reach white or black old people is pretty much the same, but young people is the same. [00:19:49] And so these, what happens is these groups don't understand how hard you have to work to get a young person sample. [00:19:57] I hear it all the time. [00:19:58] Well, you know, we got a young person to answer the phone at the home. [00:20:02] I'm like, no, you didn't. [00:20:04] They're like, oh, yes, we did. [00:20:05] Look. [00:20:05] I'm like, pull the voter record. [00:20:07] You're going to see that there's at least one other old person at home. [00:20:10] And I guarantee you, that's who answered the house line. [00:20:13] It's not the young person. [00:20:15] That's it. [00:20:16] And it's like they don't want to concede that. [00:20:18] So they're still like calling home numbers and stuff, trying to get young people. [00:20:22] It doesn't work. [00:20:23] And getting anybody young to answer the phone versus respond to a text is a totally different challenge. [00:20:32] And so we try to get a good representation. [00:20:35] You know, if we've got a 13% of the vote is African American, then we're doing 1,000. [00:20:41] We're not happy till we have 130 samples. [00:20:45] I mean, we don't ever take that for granted and we always get a deep, deep number. [00:20:51] We do not find ourselves having to wait up to get a good sample of the black vote. [00:20:57] One of the hardest part of polling is to actually model what the electorate will look like. [00:21:02] We're starting to get a little bit of crumbs, if you will, of what is actually happening. [00:21:07] Based on all the data we have available, we are seeing the electorate be more rural, higher turnouts in those areas with early voting in Florida, North Carolina than we could have actually ever imagined. [00:21:19] Are you seeing this as well? [00:21:21] Are you seeing Republican turnout higher? [00:21:23] And in some Democrat areas like Miami-Dade County, it seems as if it's lagging behind tremendously. [00:21:29] Are we looking at that correctly? [00:21:31] Yeah, I was actually talking to somebody about Miami-Dade County the other day, and they said that just in registration, Hillary had a 31% advantage. [00:21:39] And this time, Biden's people have a 7% advantage. [00:21:43] I mean, the thing is, what happened this summer has woken up a lot of America. [00:21:50] I'm probably different than most people. [00:21:51] I've always said that a sign of a stable democracy is low voter turnout. [00:21:58] Because if you believe that your life isn't going to radically change, depending upon who wins an election, you have the luxury of not voting. [00:22:06] You look at places where your family could be killed or your house burned down based on who wins an election. [00:22:12] That's the place that have 90% voter turnout. [00:22:15] But in America, we've had the luxury of low voter turnout. [00:22:18] Well, what people saw this summer when we started with the violence and the cancel culture and had a genuine debate about whether Mount Rushmore was a white supremacist symbol. [00:22:29] People said, what is going on in my country? [00:22:33] And that's what they tell us is like they didn't recognize what they were seeing. [00:22:37] This wasn't the America that they had ever thought would be possible. [00:22:43] The things that were being debated, things that were being discussed, the cancel culture, the attacks on Western civilization as a whole, and it has woken up a lot of people and they want their voice heard. [00:22:55] They don't want to necessarily put it on social media. [00:22:57] They don't want to be lampooned for saying it, but their only catharsis, the only way that they can feel better about what they've witnessed is to vote. [00:23:06] And they've been telling me for months, there's a lot of things I'm going to do, but I'm going to vote. [00:23:13] I have one guy says, I might not pay my taxes. [00:23:16] I might get my car repossessed, but I am darn sure going to vote. [00:23:20] What are we seeing, though, in the early vote numbers to correlate with that? [00:23:24] We're seeing record high turnout, and the Democrats on television are taking victory laps. [00:23:28] That high turnout means it will benefit them. [00:23:31] Is that necessarily true? [00:23:33] No, it's exactly the opposite of true. [00:23:36] If you are part of the liberal, the skies falling every two years, you've always voted. [00:23:42] When you poll, and we've done it in all the battleground states, what's called low propensity voters, the ones that have voted once or twice in the last 20 years, what you find is Trump is winning over 50% of them across the board. [00:23:57] A really high turnout is the end for them. [00:24:01] And especially when they have kind of the urban decay, when they don't have the same sort of support in the areas where they have to really boost support and they have to run up the score. [00:24:12] Can you give us any specifics of what we're seeing in early voting that is making you change your polling methodology? [00:24:17] Well, we're not changing them mainly because we always get accused of trying to do things that are beneficial to the Republicans. [00:24:26] So we are making sure that this is why I always say I think Trump is doing better than my polls say. [00:24:31] No, we're keeping the turnout models expecting this crazy high youth turnout that we don't think is probably going to happen. [00:24:38] And we're keeping the model saying that it's going to be the same balance as we saw in 2018. [00:24:46] And we do this because one, to change it to what we think is really going to happen would look like we are trying to change our result. [00:24:55] So we want to demonstrate that we're going to give you an we're going to give you a number that we believe is accurate, even based on the way you think the turnout is going to be. [00:25:04] And we know it's going to be better and more beneficial to Trump. [00:25:08] But it just part of our inoculation on being said that, you know, we're just trying to put it out there for Trump. [00:25:14] Well, all anybody has to do is look at what our turnout stuff that we publish with every poll shows on percentages, and you can see they are very in line with everyone else. [00:25:23] That's why I think Trump's going to outperform our polls too. [00:25:27] So I'm looking at the last latest polls out of Michigan. [00:25:29] ABC News Washington Post says Biden up seven. [00:25:32] Reuters, Biden up nine. [00:25:34] Detroit News, Biden up seven. [00:25:36] New York Times, Biden up eight. [00:25:38] MRS, Mitchell Research, Biden up 10. [00:25:41] And Trafalgar, Trump up two. [00:25:44] And so they just seem to be stuck in an old way. [00:25:48] Someone's going to be wrong, right, this Tuesday. [00:25:51] And you seem very confident that you're finding something that they're not. [00:25:55] I think so. [00:25:56] And, you know, I will trust Michael Moore's ability to read average people over every single pollster you just mentioned and double that. [00:26:06] And Michael Moore is sounding the alarm that the polls are wrong. [00:26:10] He's the guy who predicted Trump would win. [00:26:13] These guys are stuck. [00:26:14] You know, they're stuck in their accelerator and they don't see outside of it. [00:26:18] Okay, so let's go state by state here. [00:26:21] You think the president wins Florida? [00:26:23] I do. [00:26:24] Arizona? [00:26:26] Yes. [00:26:26] North Carolina? [00:26:28] Yes. === State by State Breakdown (06:20) === [00:26:29] Pennsylvania. [00:26:31] He wins it, but if he doesn't win it by 4% or 5%, he's not going to get it. [00:26:34] Voter fraud will take it from him. [00:26:35] It's with an asterisk. [00:26:37] How about Michigan? [00:26:39] I think he wins Michigan. [00:26:40] So let's just focus on Michigan because that seems to have the greatest discrepancy. [00:26:45] People say Michigan is done. [00:26:47] It's in the bag. [00:26:48] What are the trends? [00:26:50] Where is Trump doing better than in 2016 in Michigan? [00:26:54] Where does he still need to make up some ground? [00:26:56] Well, we see what we can, the way we see what we think he needs to make up some ground is where we see people that we know are probably voting for him that are kind of hidden vote. [00:27:08] We see him stronger in a few areas. [00:27:12] We see the turnout as a proportion. [00:27:14] We think the UP is really going to be very even stronger. [00:27:19] I mean, obviously, it's a very small percentage of Michigan, but we think it'll represent a larger proportion than it has in the past because there's such an energy in the rural community for Trump. [00:27:30] We see the east, excuse me, the west side of Michigan. [00:27:35] I think all those counties, but maybe Muskegon and one other voted for Trump. [00:27:41] And we see some very big movements in the Muskegon area that should have been safe territory for Biden, and we don't see it as so safe. [00:27:51] And we also see the vote they're counting on to come out of East Lansing. [00:27:59] and Ann Arbor for Michigan, Michigan State. [00:28:02] We see the turnout there down and we don't see any apparatus to make it higher what it needs to be on Election Day because of the restrictions with the schools and the ability to load the kids up and do their full operation. [00:28:18] So we see a lot of things that are telling us that Michigan looks good. [00:28:22] And the other thing to consider too is after what happened with the governor, people are really very, very hesitant to admit they're outside of the form. [00:28:37] There's a kind of accepted idea that people are saying, well, the Trump folks are the ones who kind of stirring up trouble and causing all this rebellion and stuff. [00:28:47] And so it makes people even more hesitant, believing they're kind of being looked at, to readily admit where they are. [00:28:55] And I think that's a factor we've seen that's kind of made the polls skew a little bit against Trump in the last few weeks, the way they're doing it, because people are just really hesitant now. [00:29:07] They don't know who's asking. [00:29:09] And, you know, they just went through everybody who's ever been anti-Whitmer getting blamed for being part of what happened to her. [00:29:17] And that's made people a little more skittish about admitting that they're pro-Trump out there. [00:29:22] And how about Ohio? [00:29:23] We feel good about Ohio? [00:29:24] Ohio's done. [00:29:25] Well, there's a poll that this just, just to give everyone an idea, and again, I'm not doubting you. [00:29:30] There was a poll out, I think, by Quinnia Pack that shows Biden up five points in Ohio today. [00:29:35] I think that one had 35 questions. [00:29:37] Yeah. [00:29:38] And so I'm just, I'm reinforcing your whole thesis is that somebody, I find no way that Trump loses Ohio. [00:29:46] I mean, that's just that is sign-sealed and delivered, right? [00:29:50] There's no question. [00:29:51] The worst week of the Trump campaign, we had him up by four in Ohio. [00:29:55] We're not even polling again. [00:29:57] Yeah, I mean, you're not even getting near. [00:29:59] I mean, so they have, that goes to show Quinnia Pack, Biden up five in Ohio. [00:30:05] Iowa is done. [00:30:07] I think Iowa's going to be closer than it would have been naturally, but no, I don't think there's a chance for him losing. [00:30:13] Even when mainstream polls, the average is still not as good as the Trump side would want it, but it's more because there haven't been a lot of polls because once everybody realized we're showing that the Republicans were winning, everybody just kind of quit polling Iowa. [00:30:30] So the average hasn't caught up to the most recent polls. [00:30:33] How about Georgia? [00:30:34] This is where I am right now. [00:30:35] And let me tell you, that's just a bunch of mess. [00:30:38] They gave everything they had in 2018. [00:30:41] They can't do better. [00:30:42] That's it. [00:30:43] I mean, these guys couldn't get 30 people to come to hear a candidate for president speak. [00:30:49] I mean, if you have 30 people come to your barbecue, you failed in Georgia. [00:30:52] No way. [00:30:53] And the president is coming to Rome this weekend, though. [00:30:56] Is there something that the Trump campaign is seeing or they want to share up support? [00:30:59] Is it because of the Purdue Ossip race or what are we missing? [00:31:03] I think there's a lot to do with making sure the Purdue race goes the way it needs to because there is some energy for Ossup. [00:31:11] And what people are worried about and they're worried about in Georgia and a lot of places is not really whether Trump's going to win, but what's called undervote. [00:31:20] People that are fired up and can't wait to get out there and vote for Trump. [00:31:24] And then they look at some incumbents like Purdue and they're like, and maybe they just vote for Trump and leave. [00:31:32] I mean, it is very common in presidential races for people to vote for the president, get all fired up about that and not vote the rest of the ticket. [00:31:40] And for Trump to be successful, he's got to make the case. [00:31:43] If you come out to vote for me, you've got to stick with the team. [00:31:46] You got to get the rest of them elected. [00:31:48] And the fact that they're going to Rome tells me that is where the people are, that's the kind of people that will be so fired up, come out to vote for Trump and just might just say that's all they came to do today. [00:32:01] Yeah, I don't quite understand why they're going to Rome. [00:32:05] I would have went to either Macon, I think that's how you pronounce it right, or I would have gone closer to the Florida, Georgia border. [00:32:13] There might be some wisdom to this, but I would have went right on the Jacksonville-Georgia border. [00:32:17] I think they're going to Rome because there's a Northwest rural problem. [00:32:21] I think that they're not getting the numbers that they need and they need to run up the score up in kind of Northwest Georgia, Northwest Atlanta. [00:32:29] So final question, final prediction, who's going to win? [00:32:33] Oh, I think Trump will definitely win. [00:32:35] I think it's going to be at minimum above 275 and on up, depending upon how large this thing that we think could be a wave of Trump people coming out to vote that no one's anticipating. === A Massive Red Wave (01:50) === [00:32:49] And so you're of the opinion that there might be a red wave that everyone's missing, ghost vote, hidden voter, and this thing's going to break. [00:32:57] Absolutely. [00:32:58] I think that if the wave's big enough, you could start seeing things like Colorado getting close enough for Corey Gardner to stay. [00:33:06] You could see, you're going to see states like New Hampshire and New Mexico getting very competitive looking, and maybe even the possibility of Virginia getting competitive looking. [00:33:18] If the hidden vote is as large as we think it could be on our largest model, then you could see a nice, nice size wave. [00:33:27] But we're going to stick with all the unknowns out there that it's going to be at least a Trump victory and quite possibly more. [00:33:35] Well, I pray you're right more than you can ever imagine. [00:33:38] So Robert DeHaley from the Trafalgar Group, we will be watching Tuesday evening. [00:33:42] Thank you for giving us that shot of confidence. [00:33:45] And thanks for the great work. [00:33:46] Talk to you soon. [00:33:47] Yes, sir. [00:33:48] Great to be here. [00:33:49] See you soon. [00:33:49] Thanks. [00:33:53] Thanks so much for listening, everybody. [00:33:54] If you want to get involved with Turning PointUSA, go to tpusa.com, tpusa.com. [00:33:59] Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. [00:34:01] Please consider supporting us, charliekirk.com slash support. [00:34:06] Thanks so much for listening, everybody. [00:34:07] God bless. [00:34:11] This is the most important election of our lifetime. 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