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Dec. 23, 2015 - Clif High
30:12
Dec232015BTC

Lexicon tuning, BTC bitcoin, temporal markers, gold, silver, rodin coils and tin sorry, misspoke....MANGANESE and tin...MnSn2....not magnesium....

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Good morning.
It's December 23rd, 6.17 a.m. here in the Pacific Northwest coast of North America, Olympia, Washington.
Hang on a second.
There we go.
Hopefully my sound quality is a little better now.
A lot of other issues.
What happened last time was some background processing.
Anyway, this is a quick little video to discuss the lexicon tuning, Bitcoin, gold, and silver, early January, February kind of things, and a little bit on the tin.
So to start with the lexicon and the tuning and why that's important, our accuracy rates have gone up because I've been devoting a better part of the month, each month, every month, to tuning the lexicon.
Now, the lexicon is our million-plus words in multiple languages that are simply in a giant alphabetical array.
These words have a unique identifier assigned to them, so we know what language and so on, all kinds of descriptors that are numerically encoded.
And they also have a multi-dimensional array of values that are associated with them.
Sorry, we've got a dog fight going on under the table on which this PC is resting.
So if it gets a little shaky, that's what's happening.
Anyway, so the lexicon and the tuning.
The multi-dimensional array holds values that are associated with the words.
Knock it off, guys.
Knock it off.
The words are, or the values are associated numerically.
They're usually done in a range within a defined larger range for the potential for that word.
So our range might be that, you know, we're at 2.5 or 2.7, and the total range for this particular word might be 1 to 5 or 1 to 10.
That sort of description of what we're dealing with here.
The values for these are guesses, really, that I started assigning way back in 1994.
And what we're looking at is a multi-dimensional array that holds all kinds of values for things like the duration.
Basically, it's all the emotions that are associated with a word.
So we'll look at duration.
Duration is a good one.
So if I use one particular kind of a word, it has an emotional impact on you.
And what we're tracking with duration is how long in time that emotional impact carries forward.
So some words have a larger impact on your life.
They last longer.
They have more of an emotional impact on you.
Other words are brief in terms of their impact.
They're very fading, maybe only a few minutes into maybe a day or so.
Now, what we're actually doing is tracking this across multiple people and through the media.
So my definition of duration for an emotive carry forward into the future for a word is not actually the emotive value of that word as it might be seen in daily conversation between two humans because the impact there with the face-to-face conversation, all of that is a little bit different.
What mine is, is the emotive value as it carries forward within the media, within the textural expressions that humans give across the internet.
And since it takes them time to write that, it takes time to get it posted, there's a little bit more of a commitment to making the time to do it, etc., etc., this is necessarily a much longer duration value than the actual word has.
This is what screwed me up way back when, was that I was going for the former, not the latter.
I was going for the actual emotive value of the word rather than its internet representation in that longer duration process of getting those emotions out through the words into the internet, if that makes any sense at all.
But basically what I have to do is I've got to go through and I've got to tune.
There's lots and lots and lots and lots of words in the lexicon, which is a dictionary without the definitions attached.
And multiple different languages.
The words are interrelated in their emotional context.
The tuning, there's so many words in there, you know, that I've not yet tuned through the whole lexicon twice.
So I wrote it.
I set it up and wrote it once in the 90s, and I've been working on it ever since, but I have yet to go through the whole thing all over again in terms of its tuning and assigning values.
Basically, what I've ended up doing is spending a lot of time concentrating on subsets, the more pertinent words to our current milieu and our current progression through time.
And so, I ended up concentrating on certain sets.
So, for instance, when I first started the lexicon, there were no words in it about Bitcoin.
Now, they're all over the place, cryptocurrencies and all of their variants.
And so, those had to be added and folded in.
So, there's all kinds of work that has to go on all the time with new words coming in, some of which are slang, other which are technical and then fade into general use.
So, you can say iPhone, you know, e-cig, these kind of things.
They didn't exist a few years ago.
Now, they exist.
Now, they have to be folded in.
So, there's all this kind of work just putting the new crap in.
And that's not really where the art of it is.
The art of it is in discovering the emotive values, the emotive nuances and the ranges, because I've had to discover the range.
What was an effective range?
How long could a word carry forward into the future within the media and still have the emotive impact or close to the emotive impact that it did on the first day that it came out?
Or that we see it in the media.
And then, also, since the words have a tendency to trail off in terms of their emotive value over time, what was that rate of that trail?
How fast did it degrade?
So, this is why we have the different kinds of values.
So, legal language, let's just give that as an example.
If you see legal language showing up in a letter, it's going to have a long-term impact on your life.
Pretty much the same thing within the media.
The more legal language that we see associated with an article or story or subject, we know it's going to have a much longer-term value in time and have a longer impact on us, although not necessarily as motively severe.
And so, that's what the tuning of the lexicon is involved with.
Now, there's the tuning that comes from having to deal with slang because slang comes up all the time, and it's very important because a lot of slang words are now very common.
Slang from the previous century forms a very large component of daily life as it becomes more mundane and in some cases practical.
You know, all the technical slang, this kind of thing.
So, that has to be dealt with.
But then, there's also, as I say, just the change in the values of words over time, as well as the appearance of the new words that we have to put in.
So, it's a lot of work.
And when I started off, I was doing this once, twice a year, maybe, just because it was a lot of work and I was lazy.
And I also had a lot of other things I was doing.
So, it is very difficult to get this into a process and fold it in.
I finally, you know, okay, you know, flipped the switch on that and threw away my attempt to keep up with the immediacy language in order to favor the tuning of the lexicon.
I think I made a good decision.
We've lost the capacity to do the immediacy data intelligence reports, which because immediacy data is just flowing through, and usually it has a value duration and time of like three days out to maybe three end of the third week.
So, you know, it's ephemeral.
It goes.
But a lot of interesting stuff happens in there.
And you can get real good clues to longer-term stuff because the details of events are frequently found in the immediacy language.
But like I say, it's ephemeral and they go.
In any event, so I decided to favor the tuning of the lexicon, and we've been getting more accurate over time.
It's also been a lot easier to get into the progression of the tuning or into a routine of it.
Once I've settled into like the second or third month of this, it's like, oh, okay, I can see a process whereby this can be very effective.
And I can gain on the lexicon over time because the damn thing keeps growing on me.
You know, all you people out there invent new words.
I got to put them into this list and then get on them.
So all you guys slow down.
Let me catch up.
Anyway, though, so the lexicon is getting tuned.
That's what I do the majority of the month now.
And then while the report's running, I sit down and match up words against what I know as follow-through from previous months so we have some kind of an accuracy.
And basically, when I say tune, we take a word like doesn't matter really what it is, style, you know, as in fashion sense of style.
See, there's another problem is all these words have multiple meanings and you've got to do it.
The tuning on all the meanings that are pertinent to the process.
Now, a lot of times there might be 80 meanings to a word and I only care about the top three, that kind of thing.
So it's really spotty.
It's not like it's complete in any sense of the word.
Anyway, so we have style.
We're going to tune style, the word.
And its duration may change from one run to the other as it drops out of favor because it started off as a slang word.
Now I'm just using style as an example.
It could be anything here.
And so we get to the point where you have to go through and check your existing words that are key and valuable and you use a lot of right off the bat just to make sure that you're getting those done.
And then you get into those words that have that you've previously identified as having a good potential, but are not necessarily popping up all the time, but they're frequently enough and so on.
So there's a whole little routine to getting it done.
And this does appear to be working.
And as I say, the accuracy rate is going up.
Now, initially, because I started this process way back in the 90s using it with an intent to make money on the stock market and got sidetracked by reality coming on in and saying, hey, look at this interesting stuff.
But in any event, so we have a focus on money.
Plus, everybody on the planet has a focus on money since nobody's got any other than the goddamn banks.
Anyway, so that kind of brings a focus to the lexicon that allows me to build on it from month to month to month and to gain out so or to grow out with each month.
So, you know, three months ago, I was able to tune, or actually six, eight months ago, I was able to tune the Bitcoin really well.
I revisited it three months ago, checked it again this month.
And so we get a good follow-through, a good progression on some of these words that are important.
And as a result of which, we see that our accuracy rates are going up and we're picking up more meaningful data as we go forward.
A good thing here, the dogfight has moved over into the other rooms.
The table will stop shaking.
Anyway, so that having been said, that was just an idea, giving you an idea of what I'm going through with the lexicon and why there are changes in the reports over time, as well as why we have a variant in the accuracy rate.
And it's because language is extremely fluid.
So I doubt we'll ever be able to get ahead of it, so to speak, or even stay anywhere close to it.
But in any event, the point of this particular, now that we're through the idea of the tuning and what's going on there, the point of this particular little discussion here is the focus on Bitcoin, gold, and silver.
Because as a result of the tuning on the Bitcoin a few months back, we got that really nice, prescient forecast of 408 to 428 for the floor.
I noticed at that point that we, and this is back August, perhaps.
I'd have to go back and check my notes.
Maybe it's earlier in July.
No, it was August, early August, I believe.
I noticed that Bitcoin had slid up to where it was within 1% of the emotive values of silver and that there was this associative link on a number of the subsets.
And so I was tracking it fairly close because we were getting a response back from the data that indicated that we were going to have this link between the floors, if you will, of Bitcoin and silver.
And sure enough, that sort of seems to have panned out and held.
I think the markets are open at this particular moment.
It's 6:30 in the moment, 6:30 in the morning here, so Pacific Coast.
So I believe they have it.
I'll go check in a bit.
And I think silver will probably be up today.
Whether we're talking a great amount or not, it doesn't really matter.
But in general, the trend with a floor at 428 for Bitcoin seems to have held the floor for silver at whatever it was at the point that we finally left 428 for Bitcoin.
Sorry, guys, I got to apologize.
I'm not really a money guy.
I don't know a lot of the language other than as I've been dealing with it in the emotive values.
So frequently I'll see words in, I think, in the values I've assigned to them, and they totally space out on the definitions.
It's gotten that bad.
Anyway, so here's the thing: I'm doing a big end-of-the-year tuning.
We're going to try and get the next report out in early January.
I'm hoping that there's not going to be any kind of a hiccup.
There's enough data within the Bitcoin gold and silver that I thought I should do this now just to get it out to those people that are to whom it matters a lot.
The dog bites move back over here, by the way.
And to let you know that there's another link up, and we've got some more temporal markers for Bitcoin, gold, and silver.
Now, a temporal marker, we don't have a calendar.
I have a calendar, but it's just, again, it's a guess.
It's based on the duration and carry values of the words, when we first see them, and the projections and all kinds of stuff.
So, our timing is kind of wonky.
We have a pretty good range for words, but getting that range to line up to a specific set of dates is difficult because the words don't come along with a date saying, oh, this one starts on this particular day.
Rather, we get the words, and then what happens is that I have to plot them in based on when they're first seen, their duration value, and then carry value, etc.
So, again, it's sort of a guess, right?
And then we find out later, oh, damn, we were off by a couple of days.
This one shouldn't have started there, and it started three days later.
And that's why we not only have the variance in the range of the words themselves, but when they become effective.
So, you'll find that our timing is a little wonky sometimes, even though the description of the events and everything is quite good.
So, we had a really good description of the 408 to 428 business, but I had no clue that it was going to take over a month for it to pan out.
It said rapid in the data.
Well, rapid's a subjective kind of a word in the sense that we have a definition for it, but we don't have a definitive timeframe within which the data talks about it.
Although now we have a better clue, see, because now I can go back and I can retune the word rapid because based in an economic sense, because now we have a real-world example where we had the word rapid back in August or September that related to the 408 to 428 transit three times, and now we know that it took five, six weeks for this whole process to occur.
So, therefore, in an economic sense, the data thinks of the word rapid or provides us with the word rapid when something may take as long as six weeks.
Make sense?
And so, I can go on back and I can say, ah, a good duration.
If we're looking at rapid in the economic context and it involves these elements, then a value for that is potentially out to six weeks.
And so, when I do an interpretation, I can come back and say, Hey, we've got these data points here, they're associated with the word rapid.
The ergo, when it does pop off, then maybe we're looking at a process of about six weeks for the whole thing to go.
So, we've got a really good peg or hook to hang this thing on based on existing reality and a successful interpretation process.
That's what tuning the lexicon is all about: is going through that process, looping back.
It's a positive feedback loop to attempt to make our accuracy level better as we go along.
And as I say, I think it's really been working since I've been getting into this new process of eliminating the immediacy data reports and getting into the tuning.
Now, for the Bitcoin gold and silver parts, our new temporal marker for the oh, a temporal marker, by the way, is something where we have a like an astrological sign or a public event associated with some words.
So, we know that these words are likely to pick up around this particular time, and that gives us a marker in time based on a certain set of words or a definition of some kind of an event that's likely to occur.
And if we see that, then we know that aha, the interpretation and the forecast should proceed as follows: makes sense as sort of a hook that we can say in time that this element is connected with this point in time because of a description, not because I've arbitrarily assigned a particular position for it within our model space, which is a lunar calendar.
And I won't go into why we've done that, it's really complicated crap.
Anyway, so our next temporal marker for Bitcoin is 640 to 650.
Now, we expect to see, I expect to see the 640 to 650 mark in US dollars in Bitcoin sometime shortly before a number of other events occur.
Now, the way model space is being shown now in terms of I'm running the models now and doing a lot of the processing at the moment.
Bitcoin is currently over here.
Okay, it's right here.
It has a value that is associated with silver emotionally.
So, the two are within 1% of each other of all the emotional parameters that make up their descriptor set.
When we get to 640 or so, there with the Bitcoin, in that range of 640 to 650, it's going to set another floor.
When it's doing that, in that process, it actually is going to make an emotive shift, and it's going to make this shift from values similar to silver.
And this is where it's going to get real complicated or complex.
Okay, it's going to so it's going to take its emotive values that are currently within 1% of silver and start moving towards the emotive values of gold.
People have different emotional feelings about the two when they discuss them.
They're similar, extremely similar.
That's why they follow patterns, they're both money, etc., etc.
But there's an emotive response to them that's entirely different.
And I'll get into why later on.
In any event, so we've got this situation where we have a position of 640 to 650 in Bitcoin, and it's going to decide at that point that it's going to leave the bounds of what it thinks of itself or what we think of Bitcoin emotively, and it's going to shift into start becoming closer to gold.
In that period of time, the descriptor sets that we have show that silver is on the rise up, gold's on the rise up, Bitcoin is rising, but it's trailing behind them both emotively and in a rate of rise.
So it's much more choppy, losing some, coming back up, all of that kind of stuff.
But there's going to be a within the data sets, we get a picture of Bitcoin at 64,650 at the same time that we see silver crossing through a or going through an emotional threshold as well as gold going through an emotional threshold.
Now, the emotional threshold is described as being a new high, okay, in dollars, in U.S. dollars.
So the 64,650 within Bitcoin is a temporal marker because of other things.
We can assign a position where we think that will occur.
And I'll get into that in a second.
But that's a temporal marker for these new highs in silver and gold.
Now, I don't have the words all-time highs or any of that kind of thing associated with it, but I do have new highs associated.
We have different kinds of other words within the lexicon that make me think that will exceed previous highs and that those previous highs will be going back to the 2011 period.
So I think we'll cost $1,900 or whatever it was in gold and cost $50 or whatever it was in silver.
At the time that we're about $640,650 within Bitcoin and Bitcoin has set a floor within that range.
That's when this other stuff happens.
There's a lot more detail about that in terms of the progression, how the silver and gold actually move during that period of time.
And so probably it's all tradable stuff, but I think you're a fool to try and trade gold and silver, especially this day.
You need to grab this stuff and hang on to it.
If you can get hold of it, it's going to be really good to have four and five years from now in a way that, just like Bitcoin, it's going to be really good to have four or five years from now.
So we've got the lexicon all tuned up.
It's showing the 640, 650 range.
I think we're looking at 640, 650 within Bitcoin within a very short period of time in 2016 prior to this March-April paper debt debacle.
It's not just stocks, it's not just bonds.
It's all kinds of weird stuff going really wonky with the paper debt throwing all kinds of people into chaotic situations.
There's huge amounts of layoffs associated with it within the financial world, you know, Wall Street guys, that kind of thing.
So I think it gets so bad that they fire a lot of people, you know, those sorts of things.
But at the same time, we see a big boost in Bitcoin use.
We see within the data set showing up now is this descriptor of the entry into a period where a silver market gets shut down for like 35 days here in the U.S., not globally.
So I could wander on up into Canada and buy and sell silver.
I just can't do it here in the U.S. for some reason.
And I'm not sure what that reason is.
We have some hints now that maybe it's because there's a physical settlement process going on in other markets.
That is to say, there's other ways, other places to buy physical gold and silver.
And so there's true price discovery and thus the fake price discovery here in the U.S. collapses.
Also, though, from a U.S.-centric viewpoint, during that period of time, we get gold going, ain't none, you know, or as they say, no offer.
But basically, there just is none to purchase.
You'll see it go right out of eBay.
There just won't be any gold off eBay, no matter how much you're willing to pay for it.
People will be selling trinkets that happen to be gold-plated, and those will be selling.
It'll be that bad.
I mean, people will be trying to get any kind of gold they can.
This may happen as rapidly, as I say, as March or April.
We may be looking at this across the end of January and into February, insofar as some rather major events are concerned.
I don't have a descriptor or any indication of what those events might be at this point because of the way in which I do the process of the interpretation.
I look at different things first so that I get closer to the immediacy data at the time that I'm doing the actual write-up and thus get a better view of the details.
And I can provide those for people as we go forward.
Right now, so basically, what I'm looking at right now is a very large bow wave for some kind of an event, but I don't see the ship that's pushing the bow wave.
We're that far away from it.
But I'm feeling in my little boat here, and we're starting to rise up.
And so there's this sort of leading edge kind of an effect coming off of this.
So there's going to be a series of events, whether they will cause the, and they're all clustered.
And we know that they're from the data that we're looking at now.
I've been talking with Igor on this.
The way in which it's flowing in, we're seeing it cluster in and pack in fairly tightly.
So we know that there'll be a series of events that will be impacting the media within a short period of time.
And then on the other side of that, we see the 640, 650 gold.
Now, how far distant, I can't say yet.
We haven't gotten that close to the data.
I'm just pointing out the 640, 650 in Bitcoin and then the new highs in silver and gold in U.S. dollars.
But again, you won't be able to trade this at that point because apparently the markets are shut down or broken or dysfunctional in one way or another.
Some of this may relate to the dollar.
There's all kinds of new language for the dollar shaping up.
Again, I haven't gotten into the details.
I just wanted to bring up this particular point that Bitcoin, gold, and silver, maybe as early as the end of January in the early part of February, we might see these events.
We may see a very rapid reaction in Bitcoin, gold, and silver.
I have no way of knowing at this point or can't forecast that just yet.
Let's see.
But just to shut this all down and get that idea across here too, is that when the new high in gold goes through, at that point, we then see Bitcoin doing this little kind of like jump in terms of all of its emotive values and moving out of the range of silver and closer to gold.
So the progression of Bitcoin relative to gold, relative to its emotive values, once we pass this particular threshold, it's going to be very interesting because we'll see Bitcoin 640, 650, we'll see silver and gold set new highs.
Then at that point, Bitcoin will suddenly jump up and start really ratcheting up towards gold.
And that's going to start this whole process all over again further on down the road in 2016.
And it has to do with the emotive values of Bitcoin leaving that of silver and becoming more like gold.
And when it does that, we might see Bitcoin gain $200 and $300 a day in its leap from the mid-600s towards the lower 2000s because gold should be at the lower 2000 level around then.
I'm going to try and detail some of this as we can lay it out in the report.
I've got some of it written up already as we go forward in the process of the interpretation for this January report.
I'll see if I can get enough long-term data to get us more temporal markers relative to the shift in these things.
And then one last, okay, so that's it relative to the economic stuff.
And then one last thing on our stannis adventures, our tin adventures.
Tin is a very expensive wire to deal with.
It's available.
It's like $96 for 64 feet.
But if somebody had an inclination to do a rodent coil and do rodent-style windings because of some very early preliminary success I've had in much simpler structures with tin,
I think that they would find that the magnetic effect that they're attempting to achieve, the levitation effect of the rodent coil when the currents fed through will be greatly enhanced by eliminating some of the copper and/or eliminating all of it.
Now, I haven't gone to an all-tin winding because I can't afford it.
But I did take a rotor stator mechanism apart and redo some of the coils.
And it's a really junked-up old motor that started off as a three-phase thing.
Anyway, and it was into two-phase, but I eliminated half the circuit.
And what was remaining, I took about a third of that and replaced it with 10.
And the effect is quite remarkable just in that application.
So somebody who might be involved in rodent coils, and if you have the money, it'd be very expensive.
I mean, I know there's a lot of windings in the rodent coils, even the small ones.
And, you know, $96 for 64 feet or whatever it is for 10 at the two millimeter size is, you know, it's not cheap.
But the effect is truly quite astounding.
Killed a watch.
Absolutely killed a watch that was accidentally being worn and moved into the field.
So, you know, really powerful.
And this was one of the battery-powered little digital watch things.
And its circuitry is just shot.
So, extremely powerful magnetic field generation there, just goofing around with it.
Anyway, that's all, guys.
Sorry it took so long.
Next time, we won't have to discuss the lexicon tuning and how that stuff works and why we're at this.
Anyway, good luck to us all.
New year, probably this is the last of this for this year.
Hopefully, anyway.
But I am getting my office sort of put together in the yurt set up, so we'll have a studio going all the time.
So it'll be easy to do these.
All right.
Dog fights aside.
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