Sargon of Akkad - Carl Benjamin - The #Grexit Crisis

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June 6, 2015 - Sargon of Akkad - Carl Benjamin

36:56

The #Grexit Crisis

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	If you've been paying attention to European politics at all since January 2015, you'll probably have seen articles entitled Is Greece Close to a Grexit or some variation thereof.
	Now, I'll be the first to admit that I'm no expert on the EU and I'm certainly not an expert on Greek politics.
	So I've collected all of this information from a wide variety of sources.
	For every time that I've got something from The Guardian or The Independent, I've tried to get something from The Economist or The Telegraph to try and balance out the political perspectives.
	However, not being an expert at this, I'm doubtless going to get a few things wrong.
	So if I do get anything wrong that you spot, please do tell me in the comments and I will make a note of it in the description of this video with the timestamp of where the correction is taking place.
	I think everyone at this point is aware that Greece has a massive amount of public debt.
	Now, it's only about 330 billion euros, which isn't that much, or at least wouldn't be for a major European country.
	But Greece is a very tiny European country, and so Greece's debts as a percentage of their gross domestic product are enormous.
	They're well over 150% GDP, coming on 180%.
	And the issue now is that the Greek government is almost bankrupt.
	They're having real problems paying public sector employees their salary and pensions and any kind of state benefits.
	And in addition to that, they're having real trouble paying back their debts.
	The Greek government owes a lot of money to the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Financial Stability Facility.
	In addition to this, there are also Greek commercial banks that have lent money to the Greek government.
	In 2010, the Greek government arranged a 110 billion Euro bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund and the EU, and this was paid in installments.
	It was done under the proviso that the Greek government would then implement austerity cuts to reduce the expense of the Greek government and reduce their need for a loan so they would be able to recoup the money and pay back the International Monetary Fund.
	During this time, Greece's credit rating had been dropping.
	In 2009, it went from A to triple B plus.
	And again, I'm not an expert on credit ratings, but I think it's safe to say that when it eventually reached triple C in 2011, that that was some kind of nadir for the Greek government, doubtless putting plenty of pressure on them, especially given how at the time they were receiving IMF installments for their bailouts and they were making deep austerity cuts, which were massively unpopular with the Greek people, leading to rioting in Greece.
	I actually went on holiday to Greece in, I think it was 2011 or 2012, I can't remember what year it was now, but I went to Athens and there were riots and protests outside the Greek parliament then.
	On one of the days, we had absolutely no problem getting around on the taxi because the streets were clear because of everyone protesting outside of parliament.
	Needless to say, all of this has been causing some severe internal problems for Greece as a country.
	Unemployment's been rising, people have been very much under pressure because of these austerity cuts.
	They're very, very unpopular, and the Greek government became deeply unpopular as well.
	This led to a massive shift in Greek politics, with a new coalition of parties arising under the name of Syriza.
	I'm going to give you the Wikipedia description of Syriza as it seems to be accurately sourced.
	Syriza is the coalition of the radical left.
	It was founded in 2004 as a coalition of left-wing and radical left parties and is the largest party in the Hellenic parliament.
	The party chairman is Alexis Tsipras and he is currently serving as the Prime Minister of Greece.
	The coalition originally comprised a broad array of groups and independent politicians, including social democrat, democratic socialists, left-wing patriots, feminists, anti-capitalists, centrist, and environmental groups, as well as Marxist-Leninist, Maoist, Trotskyist, Euro-communist, Luxembourgist, and also Eurosceptic components.
	Additionally, despite its secular ideology, many members are Christians who, like their atheistic fellow members, are opposed to the privileges of the state-sponsored Orthodox Church of Greece.
	Tsipras himself has always been a member of various Greek communist parties or youth organizations.
	And so a headline like Syriza, everything you need to know about Greece's new Marxist governing party, is not a surprise in the slightest.
	The largest constituent party of Syriza is the Democratic Socialist group Sinas Pizmos, which I've probably pronounced very badly, which was the party Tsipras led before becoming Prime Minister.
	And it should be noted that most of the strands of the party are united by philosophical commitment to Marxism.
	As it's a coalition of parties, there are of course differences between the groups, with one notable one being the left platform, which is more Eurosceptic than the leadership and presumably the rest of the party.
	This means that Tsipras isn't really completely free to operate as he'd like, as he doesn't have the full-throated backing of all of his MPs.
	There are going to be distinct groups within his party that will certainly object if he deviates from the agreed-upon policies.
	So Syriza wants the debt of the Greek government to be written off as much as possible.
	And despite originally saying that they weren't going to pay any of their debts, they have shown themselves willing to go into negotiations with their creditors.
	I think it would be accurate to describe Syriza's position as pro-Euro, but anti-austerity.
	The main leverage that Syriza has is that if they can't successfully negotiate a write-down of debt, they can simply refuse to pay.
	I'm no economist, but I don't think that a country refusing or defaulting on its debts is as simple as this author is making out.
	But anyway, they say that this would hurt Greece because defaulting would make it very difficult to borrow on the international bond market and thus run a government.
	But to be fair, Greece is already in pretty dire straits as it is, so they need to do something.
	The question really is: is it going to be worse for Greece or for the Eurozone?
	A Greek default on their debts would have a knock-on effect to the rest of the Eurozone and may well start some kind of domino effect, at least according to Tsipras himself.
	We don't believe that they will instit in the austerity measures because now they can understand that the problem is not a Greek problem.
	It's a European problem.
	And if Greece were a child Euro, a Eurozone and Euro, the second day, the next day, the markets will try to find who will be the next.
	And the next is Italy, with 1.9 trillion Euros debt, and not, like Greece, we have only 350 billion Euros.
	So your conference is that we believe that they will not instit in their positions.
	I don't know if they're bluffing or if they try to do their best to cut our forces in Greece because we have elections in Greece and they want new democracy in Paso to be in the government.
	But I believe that at the end of the day they will decide with by thinking what is better for all of us.
	Not only for Greece, but for all Europe.
	What if the Germans are not bluffing?
	What if they say enough is enough?
	You either stay in the Euro with austerity or you leave.
	Are you prepared to take Greece out of the Euro?
	I don't believe that they will instead in this position.
	It's quite clear really that Cypress is playing a game of chicken with the European Union, primarily with the International Monetary Fund and the Germans.
	That video clip was from 2012, but his position hasn't dramatically changed since then.
	So when Syriza took power, the current plan for the Greek economy wasn't working.
	Unemployment was at 25%, youth unemployment was around 50%, and the country was facing health emergencies, and due to the amount of people who were just dirt poor in the country, there was an epidemic of malnutrition.
	In addition to this, the money being given to Greece in bailout instalments was broadly going back to the French and German banks that the Greek government had already borrowed money from to pay interest on debts that the country had already accrued.
	Syriza's other priorities are to reverse the damage that has been done to people living under the effects of these austerity measures.
	They also aim to have a crackdown on rampant tax avoidance and reverse the militarisation of the police.
	In addition, Syriza proposed economic reforms that include the promotion of worker cooperatives and the nationalization of banks and privatised utilities.
	They also want to close foreign army bases in Greece and have even suggested from withdrawing from NATO.
	So this was the situation when Syriza came to power in January 2015, and by February 2015, things had not been going very smoothly.
	So with the terms of the IMF bailout due to expire on the 28th of February, the government was forced to compromise on its campaign pledges and provide a document to convince the international creditors that it can keep its finances afloat and stay in the Eurozone.
	Syriza promised 300,000 new jobs would be created in the private, public and social sectors, and a hefty increase in the minimum monthly wage from 580 euros to 751 euros.
	It's hard to see exactly what the Greek government is doing to stimulate the creation of new jobs in the private sector if they are at the same time increasing the minimum wage.
	This minimum wage isn't so much a problem for massive multinational corporations, but for local Greek businesses, the higher the minimum wage, the more difficult it is to expand.
	Needless to say, this didn't happen and Cipras told Parliament in February that he thought it could be done by 2016, but at the rate things are going, I wouldn't hold my breath.
	There are also 300,000 households under the poverty line, and Syriza promised to give them 300 kilowatts of free electricity per month, food subsidies for the same amount of families who have no income, and the tax on heating fuel would be scrapped.
	There was also a promise to reinstate Christmas bonus pensions for pensioners receiving less than 700 euros a month.
	Needless to say, all of this would have to be paid for, and Syriza's debt write-off, which was their primary policy, never happened.
	And neither did the moratorium on debt payments.
	In fact, what did happen is that Syriza had to fight for a four-month extension of their repayments and roll back on many of their commitments.
	It did have a positive outcome though.
	The budget surplus that the IMF and the EU requested Greece to have was 4.5%, which is obviously not insignificant, and it's persuaded them to lower this.
	This gives the Greek government more flexibility with what they're doing and presumably less austerity cuts.
	This is the responsibility of Greece's finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, who is an economics professor at the University of Athens, so at least he is far more qualified than George Osborne.
	So Syriza's 23rd of February proposals to its creditors included how they were going to crack down on tax evasion, clearing tax arrears and streamlining VAT.
	This also included a plan against corruption and a crackdown on fuel and cigarette smuggling.
	This is all well and good, but Greece's public spending is really high, even after the cuts.
	The pensions fund has buckled under the weight of too many Greeks retiring too early.
	As many as three quarters seek retirement before the age of 61.
	And Syriza has said that they plan to eliminate loopholes and incentives that encourage early retirements, particularly in banking and public sectors.
	So in February, Syriza managed to persuade the EU and the IMF from bringing down the hammer on Greece with regards to their loan repayments.
	And so it's now that I think that we should turn and look at Russia.
	It does seem very strange that by March, Greek correspondents were questioning if Greece would defect from Europe to Russia.
	Deepening ties between Greece's new government and Russia have set off alarm bells across Europe as the leaders in Athens wrangle with international creditors over reforms needed to avoid bankruptcy.
	While Greece may be eyeing Moscow as a bargaining chip, some fear it is inexorably moving away from the West towards a more benevolent ally, a potential investor and a creditor.
	In March, Tsipras had arranged a meeting with Vladimir Putin in May, accompanied by coalition partner Kamenos, defence minister and leader of the populist right-wing independent Greeks party, and this timing had not escaped analysts.
	This is, of course, a political play.
	Officially, Greece has not been searching for alternative sources of funding, but a loan from Russia or perhaps China could be seen as a more favourable alternative, or at least a supplement, to any new Eurozone bailout with all of its unpopular measures and reforms attached.
	This would be advantageous for both sides.
	Greece would look forward to cheaper gas for struggling households, increased Russian investment and tourism to provide a much-needed economic boost.
	And don't forget, Russia and Greece have cultural ties in the form of Orthodox Christianity.
	Greek ties with Russia go back for over a thousand years.
	With the Cyrillic alphabet was written by Saints Cyril and Methodius, a pair of Greeks from Thessalonica.
	And in return, Moscow would find itself with a very friendly ally with veto power inside the EU at a time of heightened tensions over Ukraine.
	A thing that would no doubt be very, very valuable to the Russians to wield against the Germans.
	Syriza have got well-established ties to Moscow, and it would come as no surprise that Syriza would very much be able to use the Russian card against the European Union.
	And of course, historically speaking, the Communist Party of Greece is pro-Russian as well.
	Syriza even formed an alliancehip with the pro-Kremlin Greek far-right.
	Known by the acronym ANEL, I'm not making that up.
	which has 13 seats in the parliament.
	They find common ground on the principle of anti-austerity and oppose reducing budget deficits as a response to the Greek financial crisis as well as rejecting the austerity package put forward by the EU and the IMF.
	According to Russian fascist Alexander Dugin, writing in 2013, he says, In Greece, our Russia's partners could eventually be leftists from Syriza, which refuses Atlanticism, liberalism and the domination of the forces of global finance.
	As far as I know, Syriza is anti-capitalist, and it is critical of the global oligarchy that has victimised Greece and Cyprus.
	The case of Syriza is interesting because of its far-left attitude towards the liberal global system.
	It's a good sign that such non-conformist forces have appeared on the scene.
	As you can see, this is not something new.
	The Russians have been paying attention to Syriza for quite some time, and even back in January when they were elected, this was self-evident.
	And needless to say, it has sparked fears in Europe that Greece will become a Russian beachhead.
	The German relationship to Russia is slightly different, with German business groups flip-flopping on Russia and putting pressure on Merkel to act as they dictate.
	Given that Germany's trade with Russia is worth almost $88 billion a year, it's no wonder that they have such a large pull.
	So after just over three months in office, Syriza found themselves, as The Guardian put it, staring into an abyss.
	It's very hard to give Syriza a good score in anything other than good intentions.
	Their interest may be to put the people first before the banks, but their handling of negotiations has been a mess and their tenure very disappointing.
	Figures would appear to support that sentiment.
	Following three months of fruitless talks to reach a cash for reform deal with its creditors, public finances have never been worse.
	In an atmosphere of fear, the real economy has come to a grinding halt.
	The major expenditure being not only state obligations but the nearly 1 billion Euro payment to the IMF by the 12th of May.
	The view from The Economist is just as pessimistic.
	Not only have Syriza failed to achieve any of their election promises, they are looking to extend the second bailout until the end of June in the hope of securing 7.2 billion Euros left in the kitty.
	But the abrasive approach of Sparrows and Varoufakis since then may have played well at home, but abroad it has won Greece nothing but mistrust and scorn.
	A bit hyperbolic no doubt, but this has apparently had two results.
	The first is that the conditions attached to any further loans Greece needs will be even more onerous.
	Second, the architects of the bailouts, who are wrong in insisting on forcing austerity on depressed economies, seem more secure in their arguments than ever.
	Syriza has done a terrible disservice to all of us who have been trying to change the debate in Europe, says Lucas Sukalis, president of a Greek think tank.
	The Economist says that a Grexit is still unlikely, but it's a little wonder that people are now planning for one.
	Having received no bailout money since August 2014, the government has raided municipal funds and delayed payments to suppliers to keep its head above water.
	In almost every way, Syriza has brought the opposite of what it promised.
	It vowed an end to depression in Greece.
	Instead, growth has slumped.
	It pledged to end austerity politics in Europe, but has done more to embolden its advocates than any German could have hoped.
	It promised to jetson the bad habits of all parties and seems to instead have acquired them.
	So despite these failures, at the end of the hundred days of Syriza's tenure, their domestic popularity had actually increased.
	However, as we entered May and no progress was being made, Greek pensioners began to start bank runs after their payments were delayed.
	The Greek government blamed this delay in payments on a technical hitch, but this was denied by a government insider who told Financial Times that the state pension funds were still missing several hundred million euros on Tuesday morning.
	Needless to say, this is not giving the Greek pensioners, almost 2 million of them, any faith in the Greek government.
	Greek companies and households pulled 7.6 billion euros out of their bank accounts during the government's standoff with international bailout creditors in February, driving deposits down to 140.5 billion euros, the lowest level in 10 years.
	This is a lot lower than January's withdrawal of 20.4 billion euros, but this shows over the two months how close Greece came to a full-scale bank run before Athens reached an agreement with the Eurozone authorities to extend its bailout into June.
	And the Dutch finance minister who led the Eurozone negotiations told Financial Times that the massive withdrawals were the primary force pushing the Greek governments towards an extension deal.
	This echoes a 2013 minor bank run in Cyprus, which was prevented after a strict regime of restrictions on bank transactions, including a daily limit of 300 euros on withdrawals, had been imposed.
	This was in response to the EU deciding that it was going to levy a tax on bank deposits, large and small, and that infuriated the small savers on the island.
	The final agreement only hit those with 100,000 euros or more in the bank, and that was better received and was probably the real reason that there wasn't a massive bank run.
	So in May, we find ourselves after the hundred grueling days of Syriza's rule, and Syriza have severe problems.
	They have no money, they have no particular way of making the IMF give them any money, they didn't get any of their debts alleviated.
	They've had to make significant compromises on their anti-austerity position just to be able to extend the amount of time for debt repayments without defaults, let alone unlocking any more bailout money.
	So things are looking pretty dire for Syriza themselves.
	And then the Russians came knocking with an invitation for Greece to join the BRICS New Development Bank.
	For those who don't know, the New Development Bank is a multilateral development bank operated by the BRICS states, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, as an alternative to the existing US-dominated World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
	The bank is set up to foster greater financial and development cooperation.
	Essentially, BRICS is a power block against the West, and the New Development Bank is one of the methods by which they intend to project this power.
	It's important to note that BRICS isn't an irrelevancy either.
	It's got over 40% of the world's population and 25% of global GDP encompassed in its member states.
	Greece has been invited by Russia to become the sixth member of the BRICS New Development Bank.
	According to a statement on Syriza's party website, CISPRAST thanked the Russians and said that Greece was interested in the offer.
	So this all sounds wonderful for Greece, and it all sounds on the up and up, but that was Russia Today reporting and I'm not saying there's anything wrong with Russia today, but they are obviously pro-Russian.
	Looking at other sources that are less inclined to have a pro-Russian bias, we can see that some details were left out of that report.
	The essence of the details is basically the same, except for one important point that's been left out.
	The membership fees for the new development bank are much higher than for the International Monetary Fund.
	And so naturally the question is, well, where is Greece going to get that extra money from?
	In fact, the former Goldman Sachs group economist who coined the term BRICS, Jim O'Neill, thinks that this sounds like nothing more than a late April fool's joke.
	However, this is, of course, political theatre.
	This is being used for leverage.
	It's very, very unlikely that Greece will join the BRICS Bank.
	Not only would they have to pay extra fees or have these fees waived by the other BRICS members, or at least reduced, to which they have got very little direct interest.
	It's almost certain that this is just being done by the Russians and the Greeks in order to get at the EU.
	It could also be just another way for Russia to show its support to Syriza, with Cyprus declaring it as a happy surprise.
	So as we approached the end of May, the IMF remained intransigent.
	They were not going to give Greece its 7.2 billion Euro bailout without the key reforms that they demanded.
	Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis says that the liquidity issue is a terribly urgent issue.
	It's common knowledge.
	Let's not beat around the bush, the shaven-headed Marxist economics professor who's been at logheads with his more free market oriented counterparts said.
	From a perspective of timing, we are talking about the next couple of weeks.
	Greece's problem, of course, is the debt repayment schedule.
	They owe another 1.5 billion euros to the IMF at the end of June after pushing back monthly payments by four months, and then another 3 billion euros to the European Central Bank in July and August, which they are obviously not going to be able to find.
	Athens has been squeezing funds from the central and local governments to be able to meet its payments, but mayors are beginning to resist.
	And so what seems to be incredibly unlikely looks like it might actually come to fruition.
	The Greek Productive Reconstruction Environment and Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafanzanis told the ANA-MPA news agency on Friday evening that Greece is preparing and will probably submit a request to participate in the new development bank for BRICS countries and has secured Russia's support on the issue.
	Needless to say this is a major geopolitical win for Russia, as Greece will end up changing masters if this ends up occurring.
	And it's looking increasingly likely that this will happen as Greece's debt crisis continues to consume the country.
	So the Greek economy minister said that Greece would pay back the 304 million euros that was due to the IMF on the 5th of June, and the head of the IMF has maintained that a Greek exit from the Euro was still a possibility.
	And it's this uncertain climate that has sounded the death knell for thousands of Greek businesses that had been clinging on in the hopes of change after Syriza's electoral triumph.
	Apparently businesses across the country are closing at a rate of 59 a day, according to a study conducted by the Greek Commerce Confederation at a cost of 613 jobs and 22.3 million euros to GDP.
	The situation of the economy is desperate, incomparable to the past.
	There is no demand whatsoever, says the deputy president of the ESEE, Greece's Commerce Federation.
	Greek banks are also in a precarious situation as 95% of loan applications are being rejected, which is of course strangling the local economy, and it's predicted that up to 10,000 businesses will close down in the coming three months alone.
	The tourist industry is obviously one of Greece's major draws, as the tourism sector employs one in five Greeks, and the summer months are usually a time of optimism around the country.
	But the uncertainty projected abroad by doubts of Greece's place in the Euro has led many tour operators and holidaymakers to cancel their trips.
	Hotel owners in Popular Islands have complained of an unusual number of cancellations for the past month, and they fear the trend might continue unless a deal is reached.
	The country is banking on the tourism industry to recover, but if the government increases VAT on islands and makes Greece not competitive compared with Turkey or neighbouring countries, this will just be the worst possible scenario.
	Tourism and shipping are all we have.
	As the IMF deadline draws closer, Tsipras ups the rhetoric on the Greek deal, no surrender by Syriza.
	Tsipras has accused Europe's creditor powers of issuing absurd demands and has come close to warning that his far-left government will detonate a pan-European political and strategic crisis if pushed any further.
	Writing for Le Monde in a tone of furious defiance after the latest set of talks reach an impasse, Sparras said that the Eurozone's dominant players were by degrees bringing about the complete abolition of democracy in Europe and were ushering in a technocratic monstrosity with powers to subjugate states that refuse to accept the doctrines of extreme neoliberalism.
	The Greek pensions are a major sticking point, with other countries in effect being told that they must lend Greece money to raise those pensions.
	So naturally you can imagine how reluctant they are to do so, especially as some of those Eurozone countries are poorer than Greece and pay their own pensioners lower pensions than those in Greece.
	This is naturally causing a great deal of strife internally with Syriza themselves, with almost half of them in favour of the left platform calling for a rupture in negotiations and for an alternative plan, which basically means they are suggesting that they should default on their payments and leave the Euro.
	And as we enter June, there is obviously no further progress made.
	Greece simply moves closer to default and Syriza splits over the IMF representative.
	Party rebels force leadership's choice for IMF representative to withdraw.
	The fiasco highlights rising tensions in Syriza and the Athens government seeks a last minute deal with creditors in order to avert a potentially disastrous default.
	Greece is due to repay 300 million euros to the IMF on Friday and a total of 1.6 billion euros due by the end of the month when the official bailout expires and the country's banking system could lose the backstop of the European Central Bank.
	Analysts at Goldman Sachs have suggested that this might now be the only way to settle Greece's future in the Eurozone.
	The Greek economy is now thought to be back in recession and there are growing signs of deposit flight from its banks as the potential end of last resort support from the ECB moves closer.
	Official statistics last week showed households and firms pulled 5 billion euros out of the banks in April, this in addition to the 7 billion and 20 billion from February and January, as the domestic deposit hit its lowest debt level for a decade.
	Needless to say, the Germans are not happy about this situation and they say that Greek insolvency would have gigantic consequences.
	This isn't actually a threat as it sounds, it's actually a plea from the Vice-Chancellor and Economics Minister of Germany to keep Greece in the Eurozone in order to maintain the single currency.
	He says, I think it's absolutely right that Germany and France once again try to find a solution, because the political consequences of Greece's insolvency within the Eurozone would of course be gigantic.
	Many people seem to have somewhat the impression that it's better to make a painful break than to draw out the agony.
	The truth is, what if the first brick were to break out of the European House?
	Europe would be a completely different aggregate state.
	His comments come after Europe's most powerful ministers met in Berlin on Monday to try and break the debt deadlock.
	Merkel, Holland and Jean-Claude Juncker, ECB President Mario Draghi and the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde flew out to Berlin for an emergency summit to find middle ground between the IMF's perceived tough line on Greece and the EC's more generous terms aimed at keeping the Union intact.
	Interestingly, the head of Greece's central bank said he is very optimistic that the country will stay in the Euro because no one has the power to take Greece out of the Euro even if they wanted to.
	I presume he means eject the Greeks against their will.
	So with the deadline finally here, Syriza have finally decided that they will propose what they term a realistic deal to the IMF.
	Tsipras claims he's issued a realistic proposal to the country's creditors in an attempt to secure a deal over debts, and this plan apparently includes concessions that will be difficult.
	Tsipras says that we are not waiting for them to submit a proposal.
	Greece is submitting a plan.
	It is now clear that the decision on whether they want to adjust to realism, the decision rests with the political leadership of Europe.
	Given the number of incredibly powerful people that are at these meetings, I think it's rather difficult to understate how important and how serious these discussions are.
	And a Syriza parliamentary spokesman reiterated that the government would not sign an agreement that was incompatible with its anti-austerity program.
	If we're talking about an ultimatum which is not within the framework of the popular mandate, it is obvious that the government cannot co-sign and accept it.
	So in the face of obstinacy from Syriza, Greece's creditors draft a final offer for a bailout aid bid in order to break the stalemate.
	So the IMF and the European Union plan to give Greece a take it or leave it offer.
	So we're now into events that are happening essentially in real time, so the information I have here may be slightly less reliable than information I've covered up until now, but I'm sure it's still reasonably reliable.
	The latest headlines are that Greece crisis deepens as Athens prepares to delay the 300 million IMF payment, which presumably means they're going to default.
	So Finance Minister Varifakis said that the deal on the table is not an ultimatum.
	He says that civilised nations do not issue ultimatums, but he was elusive about whether they will pay to avoid a default.
	And unsurprisingly, he reiterated that some point wages and pensions will take priority, and he seemed to know when that point would be.
	The creditors' proposals were leaked from the meeting, and go as follows.
	Number one, fiscal.
	Primary surpluses of 1% of GDP in 2015, in 2% in 2016, 3% in 2017, and 3.5% of GDP in 2018, which is tougher than the Greek proposal.
	2.
	Social measures.
	Creditors would launch a social welfare review, leading to the gradual rollout of a guaranteed basic income.
	3.
	VAT reforms.
	Making 23% the standard rate, eliminating various exemptions, and only allowing for food, medicine, and hotels to be on an 11% rate, which again is tougher than the Greek proposal.
	4.
	Pensions reforms.
	Tightening early retirement rules to save 1% of GDP.
	That implies a more rapid overhaul than the Greek proposal.
	And 5.
	Labour markets.
	Creditors say recent reforms would not be reversed, and Greece wants to reverse them.
	So the talks came to very little, and Greece ended up delaying its IMF payment.
	And Tsipras now has to deal with a very angry Hellenic parliament.
	Half of his own party are up in arms about the fact that he's not doing as they would like and leaving the Euro, and I imagine a large number of the rest are quite angry that he's making any concessions at all on his anti-austerity pledges.
	The major result from the negotiations is that Athens now plans to bundle four payments in June into a single 1.6 billion Euro lump sum, which is now due on June the 30th.
	So essentially all they've done is kick the can even further down the road.
	As details of the negotiations leaked out, the Syrizan party seems to have denounced the conditions as unacceptable, and the Prime Minister faces a risk of revolt in the party if he decides to accept a deal, not least because a big majority of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone.
	I'm sure it will come as no surprise that Greece's IMF gamble roils markets, and Cisparus tells Parliament that a debt deal can be done as stocks slide and Athens looks to Moscow.
	Greece will have to pay 1.6 billion euros to the IMF and 1.5 billion euros in pensions and wages by the end of the month.
	So we find ourselves looking at a very interesting geopolitical situation.
	The IMF is refusing to give more generous terms to Greece.
	The Greeks are unwilling to accept any more anti-austerity cuts imposed by the IMF.
	The Russians are undermining the leverage that the Germans and the French are placing on Greece by offering them a way out if they don't meet the terms that the IMF is setting so they can release the bailout funds.
	But this of course will make Greece beholden to Russia rather than Europe.
	Not only that, Greece leaving the Euro would set a dire precedent that other countries would then follow, or at least would have the opportunity to learn from if they were considering leaving the Eurozone themselves.
	But not only that, the European Union has always been more concerned about expansion rather than stability.
	And basically, there have always been voices who have said that Greece should never have been a part of the Euro.
	And it isn't in the Euro legitimately.
	But then again, that is exactly my point.
	The European Union as a project has always looked rather imperial.
	They've always seemed to want to have extra territory on the map.
	And this, I think, is the cost of that attitude.
	We now find ourselves at an impasse when it comes to Greece.
	There doesn't seem to be any resolving it, other than in ways that aren't really favourable to anyone other than the Russians.
	So my opinion of whether Greece will leave the Euro or not is that the European powers will do everything they can to prevent it.
	But I don't think that they are going to cross their red lines of austerity reforms.
	And I do not think that Syriza and the Greeks are going to accept any more austerity measures.
	So I suspect that they will default and that will cause quite catastrophic economic results and they will be forced to go cap in hand to the Russians who will gleefully pawn gold into their pockets for the opportunity to have sowed division within Europe and to undermine the European Union.
	Anyway, I hope all of this was informative and helpful.
	And if there's anything I've missed, please do leave a comment in the description, preferably with a link to your source.
	I'll make sure that the YouTube autofilter doesn't catch it.
	And I will add it as an update in the description, if necessary.

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