Episode 5241: In Some Form This War Will Continue In Iran
Bannon's War Room Episode 5241 details escalating Middle East tensions where Israel alleges Hezbollah uses infrastructure to move fighters, prompting Trump's ultimatum to obliterate Iran's power plants if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. While 2,200 Marines deploy and negotiations fragment among global leaders, Iran relies on asymmetric proxies despite weakened conventional strength. Economic analysis reveals a potential $21 billion war dividend for Iran at $120 oil, yet Kurt Mills argues the conflict persists until Trump rejects Israel's regime change demands, risking nation-building failures. Ultimately, the war continues in some form as geopolitical pressures push toward larger escalation. [Automatically generated summary]
Israel's defense minister said that Hezbollah, which is the Iranian-backed militia, was using it to move fighters and weapons into the southern part of the country.
This video was released today by U.S. Central Command saying it showed its forces continue to aggressively strike Iranian military targets with precision munitions.
Those were their words.
Over the weekend, President Trump suddenly issued an ultimatum on social media threatening Iran with a deadline that would have passed just about 30 minutes ago.
Here's what he posted on Saturday at 7:44 p.m.: If Iran doesn't fully open without threat the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first.
Iran's military responded on Sunday that if his threats regarding Iran's power plants are carried out, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and that all Israeli energy and communications infrastructure will be targeted, as well as, quote, similar companies in the region with U.S. shareholders.
Then this morning, the president posted this: I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.
He went on to say, quote, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.
For its part, Iran denied such talks had happened, and the speaker of Iran's parliament even borrowed a page from the president's own playbook calling it fake news.
Well, the Iraq war, as we learned some of it in real time and certainly since then, was based on a lie, on an exaggeration.
But the Bush administration was very serious about it.
They put together an enormous effort worldwide, brought together 40 countries in a global coalition, stayed on message, on a single message throughout that was about WMD and about bringing democracy to the Middle East.
And they did not vary from those messages.
This war is there's so many things that are made up that seem on the fly by the seat of the president's pants that it's hard to get a sense of what the purpose is, what the end goal looks like.
There's been no communication that's consistent that explains the theory of the case.
I think that they're probably talking about a ground operation at Karg Island.
There might also be a ground operation at one of the islands in the Strait of Hormuz.
The problem with Carter Island is a long ways away from the strait.
I mean, no, I totally agree.
It'd be absolutely ludicrous to do this.
But because you're putting boots on the ground, sure, they're going to be able to take Carg Island, let's say, fairly easily, probably in about a week or so, something like that.
And they have 2,200 with an aviation component, so they can probably control that ground and seize that terrain pretty easily.
But now they're going to be sitting 20 miles off the coast of Iran, and they're just a big target.
Think about all the missiles that are going to be fired, all the drones that are going to come over.
Think about the political implications of having American soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines killed on Iranian sovereign territory.
Think about what that kind of message would send to the entire world and to the Iranian people.
You know, these are tough, resilient people.
They are not going to take this very, very lightly.
unidentified
But, General, isn't Iran's potential control of those state of hormuz, wasn't that the most obvious card they had to play here?
Why is it that it seems that the U.S. was not prepared for this?
Well, Edri, we actually were prepared for it.
I don't know where this narrative came out that it was a big surprise.
I mean, you know, we do an annual exercise with up to 30 countries about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and how to reopen it.
And so what you're seeing in the campaign now, and I think this is really important to understand, is a continuation of the joint, you know, the combined force of the U.S. and Israel prioritizing the missile and the drone capabilities, including their manufacturing capabilities, including their ability to reconstitute their missiles and drones with support from Russia and China.
There are a couple of ships sailing right now with solid fuel from China.
I don't think they're going to make it to Iran.
And you saw the IDF in the last 24, 48 hours striking ships in the Caspian Sea, in the far north of Iran, because Russia was smuggling drones into Iran to reconstitute their capabilities.
Let me bring you into the White House thinking in this moment and how they are viewing this.
To Hagar's point, they are not looking at opposition-backed transition right now.
They are not looking to bring in an outsider.
In fact, officials I spoke to told me Reza Pahlavi, the exiled prince, that some people are looking to as a potential leader, that is not on the table for somebody that the U.S. would back.
Instead, they are looking right now at the Speaker of Parliament as a potential partner for the United States and possibly a leader that the United States could work with.
Now, he is, you talked about the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard.
He's a former IRGC commander.
He is a power broker.
And he is not a moderate necessarily, again to Hagar's point.
But this is somebody that the United States believes might be someone on the inside that could potentially have a pragmatic streak and be willing to make a deal with the United States.
Let's not understate the fact that the conventional Iranian military strength has been greatly weakened.
Their planes have been blown up, their ships have been blown up.
But conventional military strength has not been the core of the menace that Iran represents in the region and to the wider world.
Always been about unexpected asymmetric capabilities, those drones that do so much damage.
Sleeper cells all over the world.
They're proxy militias, the Houthis, the Hezbollah, and people like that.
And these are only the ones we know about.
This is a regime that for 50 years, every day, this regime, the people at the highest levels of this regime have been absolutely convinced that sooner or later, America is going to come for them.
So they've been preparing for 50 years.
They've always known that they were never going to be able to stand up against the greatest military in the world.
And so they've been making plans precisely for that.
So to say that we've blown up every one of their ships, those ships are not the real threat.
Without any ships, they've still managed to block the Straits of Hormuz and essentially put a chokehold on the global economy.
That's the nature of the regime we're dealing with.
These are very serious people.
They're seriously bad people, but they are very serious.
The Wall Street Journal reporting thousands of U.S. Marines are slated to arrive in the Middle East on Friday, according to two U.S. officials, the day President Trump has set as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
As the U.S. builds up its presence in the region, Donald Trump has been sending mixed messages over his war of choice that included a vow to obliterate Iran's power plants, to later insisting, without providing any details, that productive conversations to end the war were underway, something that Iran has denied.
What President Trump committed to yesterday, and we talked about having various conversations with people, actually conversation, one, they were going down a punch list and got 15 items agreed to.
He did not, as we mentioned on the show, he said he would not, he would hold off on the bombing of the energy and infrastructure.
He did not say the CENCOM war of defanging and declawing, the methodical takedown of the conventional military forces of the Iranian government would stop.
And of course, overnight, another horrific night of giving as good as they got.
They actually got, they shelled Tel Aviv.
And of course, the Israelis hit them hard.
The Americans hit them hard on the conventional military side.
There are the White House talking about having discussions.
There are a couple of different, I think, streams on this.
One is with potentially through Pakistan's field marshal.
I think it's Murin, who is very close to President Trump.
He's been in the Oval Office.
He's had lunch with the president.
President Trump thinks very highly of him.
This is one of the ones they're talking about doing it with the Speaker of the House, which is still part of the junta of the kind of the MOLA Ayatollah Islamic theocrat clique.
There's other discussions about Jared Kushner and Steve Wickoff might be discussing with people.
Erdogan, the Turks may be involved in that.
Let's say this.
There's also a collection of foreign ministers of Egypt and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and Bahrain and UAE.
They're also having discussions.
A lot of people are trying to figure out how this war winds down, but the underlying military aspect of this continues on.
Overnight, CENCOM going through, like I said, their methodical defanging, declawing program.
Also, two Marine amphibious ready groups or Marine expeditionary units, one on the USS Tripoli, coming for about 2,500 Marines coming from Japan, I think a couple of days away.
Also, the USS Boxer from San Diego, about 2,200 Marines.
That would give us about approximately, I don't know, 5,000 Marine amphibious assault forces with complete helicopter and the other Osprey aircraft that can be both helicopter and also conventional, in addition to all the assets we have in there.
My understanding is a tremendous amount of support aircraft.
82nd Airborne may be on alert.
So, other, as negotiations are going on, President Trump is not giving up any of his military leverage.
In fact, I would say that that leverage and the applicability, the sharp end of the spear, actually from a non-air aspect, is coming to around the North Arabian Sea in the Gulf of Oman that would either take Karg Island and/or, you know, some of the right around the Strait of Hermuz,
where they've had this 5,000-pound bunker-busting bomb B-2 runs, might even do an amphibious assault there to take and hold that and make sure those missiles and drones, et cetera, are taken care of.
So, an increasingly complex military operation continues on with more aspects coming.
At the same time, various discussions.
I mean, the president's been pretty clear his military objectives.
He's also said, hey, the Strait of Horizonuz has got to be open.
I think it's becoming more and more evident every day that our quote-unquote allies, particularly in Europe and NATO, are just not up to the task.
It's more, this is kind of more happy talk than they gave in Ukraine about what type of military and naval assets they would give to keep the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf open for free navigation.
Also, don't forget the Gate of Tears down at the Red Sea right off of Yemen, where the Houthis essentially control, or if they get involved, which they have not, they've held back, would be another aspect that you would have to keep that open to make sure you get to the Suez Canal.
Ambassador Crowley, Ambassador Waltz, Secretary McMahon, Deputy Secretary Landau, Director Krastius, Chairman Ferguson, Special Envoy for the Best Future Generations, Charles Harder.
Thank you all for being champions, for fostering the future together.
It is wonderful to receive such an impressive delegation of world leaders, first spouses and be best in class tech companies, all with a shared purpose to empower our next generation's advancement in technology and education.
Welcome Albania, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bangladesh, Belize and Bolivia.
It is my distinct honor to have Burundi, Cabo Verde, Congo, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Estonia, France, Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, and Guatemala here in Washington DC.
Greetings Israel, Kenya, Kosovo, Lithuania, Malta, Malawi, Montenegro, Morocco, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Palau, Panama, and of course, Paraguay.
Hello, Poland, Romania, Senegal, Serbia, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, St. Kitts and Nives, Ukraine, and UAE.
As people, we dream.
As leaders, we progress.
As nations, we will build.
Beginning today, let's accelerate our new global alliance, this bond, to positively impact the progress of our children.
Welcome, members, to the inaugural meeting of Fostering the Future Together.
Our coalition's mission is to empower children by providing greater access to technology and education.
This is a historic moment in time.
Our key driver is to cultivate the skills young people need to be successful in this rapidly evolving world.
Fostering the future together will achieve this by creating innovative learning programs, advocating for supportive education policies, sponsoring new tech-focused legislation, and building strong partnerships between the public and private sectors.
Each of you has a vital role to play in shaping the tech ad opportunities for the next generation.
Fostering the future together's collaborative platform will serve as a capability multiplier for members.
This added benefit is derived directly from our coalition's foundational elements, AI, education, and global leadership.
Our shared vision prioritizes children about political philosophy, geographical borders, and local project justices.
To turn this vision into action, I invite each of you to participate, commit to hosting a regional meeting, conduct a research study, advance new partnerships, collaborate with another member nation in your region of the world.
Magic happens in our nation's capital, particularly when the private and public sectors join forces.
Today's meeting is unprecedented.
I commend America's leading companies for convening with us today.
Never before have so many tech visionaries stood before such a large global audience of leaders in the State Department and the White House over the two-day period.
Nowhere else could such a concentration of excellent be assembled, from AI pioneers like OpenAI, Valentir, and XAI, to tech platforms like Google and Meta, creative engines like Adobe and Microsoft, plus human connectivity through Zoom communications.
This room is filled with extraordinary human capital.
Leaders, harness it to elevate your children, to empower your people, and to accelerate your economies.
Our coalition for leaders will improve our future, but only by supporting concrete initiatives that equip young people with the skills and knowledge they need.
Together, let's invest, expand success, and create opportunities for education and technology.
I wish everyone great success during Fostering the Future Together's Global Coalition Summit.
There is much to accomplish over this two-day period, and this is only the beginning.
I think I'll string all those together on every day of the war and kind of just lay it out.
I think it lays out the entire war.
Just incredible.
Kurt, multiple streams of negotiation, right?
You've got foreign ministers meeting in Riyadh of the major Arab nations.
You've got some sort of path maybe with Turkey and with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, although they're being accused of being Israeli agents by certain members of the Iranian regime.
You've got the field marshal in Pakistan who's quite close to President Trump.
And there you may have the Speaker of the House.
Looks like a lot of irons in the fire.
But as I said yesterday, when President Trump said, hey, we're not going to hit the energy in the oil infrastructure, he specifically didn't say I'm going to call off CENTCOM.
Another big night last night on the actual kinetic side.
Yeah, so obviously the starting gun of the week was shot, so to speak, by the president's attempt to calm the markets by saying that he was not going to basically see through his ultimatum to the Iranians.
And from there, it's sort of a guessing game.
It's very clear that the White House wants to talk with Iran.
What's less clear is if it's going on and with whom they are speaking.
The reality of the Iranian government at this point is that they have effectively a junta around Moshtabah Khamenei, the new supreme leader.
Whatever Mushtabo Khamenei's status and health, there's rumors, a flurry about potentially lost a leg, et cetera, et cetera.
What matters is that there are eight to nine decision makers within Tehran that DC would have to deal with.
And so if Trump wants the deal, he's got to figure out who to extend it to.
There's also reports, again, South Asian reports.
So not exactly the, let's say, Anglo-American commitment to the truth in that part of the world, journalistically.
There are reports of a potential VP meeting with the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Gala Bayf.
I think that actually would be a very generative idea, something that I think would be a useful maneuver by the administration.
I think, frankly, at this point, at this juncture, it could change.
Kushner and Wickoff are seen as agents of Israel, effectively, as you allude to, for better or worse.
Look, there's a breaking news that the Pakistanis have offered to host some sort of talks.
You've got the foreign ministers all meeting in Saudi Arabia of Kuwait and UAE, Saudi and Egypt.
You've got the Turks.
Erdogan is making moves to say he wants to be helpful somehow.
The entire region, it looks like Kurt says, hey, we've had enough of this already.
And as bad as these guys are, somehow we'll figure this out.
I mean, that is part of the pressure that's coming to the White House.
Also, remember, we're going to bowling on here, join Kurt in a moment.
Even with the Iranians, and we've done some back of the envelope math, everybody in that region is incentivized, at least to date, to get the price of oil and gas up.
They're calling force majeure, the Qataris, the Iraqis, Force Majeur in these contracts, the Iranians.
You know, oil at $140 is a lot better than President Trump's full spectrum energy dominance where it's got a four handle in front of it, right?
That's not when they're lifting costs is I think 20 bucks now.
They want to fly Bagger every time they pull a barrel out.
Anyway, Kurt, hang on for one second.
Birch Gold, take your phone at text.
Bannon, B-A-N-N-O-N-989898.
The ultimate guide for investing in gold and precious metals in the age of Trump.
And this gets you contact with Philip Patrick.
Talk to him.
Talk about turbulent markets.
Gold's gotten hammered last week, a little uptick this morning, then down.
It ain't the daily price.
It's the process of dry value.
Talk to the experts at Birch Gold, Philip Patrick, and his team.
Short commercial break.
Kurt Mills is going to join Eric Bolling on the other side.
I'm going to get back to Kurt in a second about these negotiations.
Eric Bowling, two reports that just kind of popped.
The theoretical force majeure, the Qataris.
I understand now I'm reading it, they have actually invoked force majeure, which means kind of act of war of act of God on LNG, long-term contracts for LNG supplies, disrupting deliveries to Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China.
Also, breaking news from the Financial Times of London that says $580 million of oil trades happened moments before, a minutes before President Trump made his announcement on the talks yesterday.
Let's take the first event first.
The Iraqis have already called force majeure on some of their contracts.
Here's one of the issues: is that everybody over there, including the Iranians, the Saudis, the Kuwaitis, the Qataris, they're all incentivized to have these higher prices, call force majeure,
negate the contracts they sold when President Trump was full on with full spectrum energy dominance and reap a massive reward for this war that America is underwriting with our taxpayer money and our troops, sir.
So, yeah, Steve, remember we talked about these force majeures that would likely be popping up because you don't want to make a commitment.
You've made a commitment at $55 or $60 a barrel or the equivalent if it's LNG.
And then the legal loophole that you can work your way through is force majeure, which is act of God, act of nature or war.
And so they figured out this is a good opportunity.
You know, some of the people that we don't maybe respect as much that they're doing business with, they'll declare force majeure and double the price that they're going to get for it.
No question about that.
Qatar had already insinuated they may do it.
Now they looks like they have done it.
We knew the Kuwaitis did it with refined products about a week ago.
But when they did that, Steve, we were on air, I think, when it happened.
And I said, look, expect a lot more of this.
And I think you will see a lot more of it because whether it this doesn't look like it's ending anytime soon.
So this all clear that we kind of felt was or people were saying was happening yesterday.
You know, you and I talked about it on RAV, my show into yours, it likely wasn't over yet.
The Conoco CEO, Conoco CEO, Chevron CO, I'm sorry, said we got a lot more upside here and people aren't realizing how dangerous this is.
You know, you can call this a war dividend for these Middle Eastern countries.
As far as the… Just hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on, slow down.
Just quickly walk people through math on that.
Now, Iran's got cash flow problems.
They can't get their stuff out.
People are talking about sending the Marines into secure Karg Island, which would cut them off from the world, at least their ability to get it out, get it and monetize it.
But just walk through the basic math of what they reserve.
One of the issues in the Middle East, particularly with President Trump's full-spectrum energy dominance, is that they look at this as a wasting asset and they hate selling it when they're lifting costs is, I don't know, around 20.
It was $5 a barrel to lift it 30, 40 years ago, sand, just pull it right out.
It pushes $30 a barrel now, maybe even a little bit higher.
So at 55, they're not making a massive, well, they're making good profit, not making a massive profit to fund their economy because this really is petrodollars that fund most of those Middle Eastern countries' economies.
At $120 a barrel, you're talking insane number.
Here, I'll do the math for you: 3 million barrels a day Iran produces right now, and that's down from seven or eight, which they have in the past, which means if they want to ramp it up, it could be a lot more.
So, just 3 million barrels a day, which they're producing prior to the war, $120 a barrel, that's $360 million, petrodollars per day.
Give it 60 days, and you're talking 21.6 billion petrodollars right into the Iranian coffers.
The chevron CEO came out yesterday and said, Hey, I can see it going to $170, but he says, I don't think this goes below $100 until 2027.
What's the futures market telling us right now of what?
Because the oil and gas market is one that's got a lot of information out there.
Clearly, somebody had some information before President Trump came out and made that statement.
I'm sure that's going to be investigated.
$580 million of trades minutes before that, quite frankly, that kind of shock announcement that said, Hey, we're looking to talk to somebody because we've degraded their military so much.
It's time to move on.
What are the future markets telling us right now about what they think about the possibility of these negotiations?
Because Kurt said, Hey, look, this is not particularly easy.
They don't really trust us.
They're backed into a corner.
They're either a rabbit dog or rabbit rat or a grizzly, right?
They know that if their people turn on them, they're done.
So they're going to fight to the end.
It's not easy.
President Trump's a master dealmaker, but it ain't easy when you really don't have anybody totally in charge to negotiate with.
So are the markets, is that incorporated into the markets right now?
And the way the futures market works in oil is you can take delivery, you can buy delivery going forward.
And I looked at it yesterday, or I'll look again, but it's within striking range of an $80 a barrel about 10 months down the road.
So into 2027, right at 2027, you're looking at $80 a barrel.
If everything stayed the same right now, we're talking $92, $93 a barrel now.
If it goes higher, those back months, those future delivery months, will continue to raise with it.
But right now, the futures aren't saying that's going to last six, eight, 10 months.
And they've priced in a lower oil price going forward.
So the belief right now is this is a now event and that Trump could ramp up production, ramp up ways to bring oil prices down, and he can, and he will when he's done.
But Steve, we've been saying this, like I hate to say, we've been saying, but we have.
It depends how high it goes and how long it stays there.
But these very sophisticated markets with tons of trading about people trying to hedge the future, not just speculators.
They're telling us that they believe right now, President Trump will not just get some military accomplishment, but will bring some sort of peace or get some sort of deal that will get back to normal, that it won't be 120, it won't be 150.
It'll be 80, which is obviously a lot higher than the 55 I think that we had when BB went to Mar-a-Lago in December, right?
But the point is, it's not $200 a barrel a year from now.
They're believing $80 a barrel a year from now.
These are traders.
And when I say traders, I don't mean speculators that everyone loves to hate.
I'm talking about the people like the ConocoPhillips head trader that I spoke to, who had similar assessment of the situation that the Chevron CEO came out yesterday saying.
So they're looking for higher prices going forward, which will pull up that 10, 11, 12-month oil price.
We'll pull it up higher as well.
Again, that's why I keep saying it matters how high it goes, how long it stays there, because people are smart enough to realize it takes time to ramp up production, to get deliveries, to get deliveries flowing quickly, and to ramp up your own, let's call it counter-high prices policy here in the United States.
I'm sure Trump will throw everything, including the kitchen sink at it, but that takes time.
Unfortunately, the worst fallout of all of this is Middle Eastern countries who frankly hate us, even though they pretend to be our allies, their coffers, their war coffers, their anti-West coffers are getting filled the longer we play this game.
And it really has become a game because you can get in, get out, make your deal, and kind of kind of strong deal going forward a lot quicker than we're doing it right now.
I mean, one of the issues is who's actually got stroke over there?
Who can you actually negotiate with that can deliver it?
Like I said, there's a lot of different things going on.
A lot of Arab nations are jumping in this.
They're all volunteering to host something.
President Trump, in the search for alternatives, wants to make sure this is meaningful.
He's saying the guys, and it looks like that was the Pakistani with the Speaker of the House.
He already said, hey, we've got general agreement on at least 15 points of 20 or 25.
Your thoughts about that?
Because it's pretty obvious.
I think a lot of the Iranians say, hey, look, the Americans and the Israelis just got another, you know, this, another delay tactic until they get the Marines in so they can bring combat troops in to seize our ability to monetize anything, sir.
I mean, my basic cut is that they're going to have to deal with the Iranians the way that the Iranians are going to insist on dealing with it.
I mean, the raw reality is not that much has changed.
And so some of the circulated proposals from the administration that have been leaked to places like Axios are the same set of demands: zero enrichment, no ballistic missiles.
These are things that the regime would rather fight and die over than concede.
If they have an actual olive branch to the Iranians that will be a better deal than Obama JCPOA, they can end this war.
But it involves saying no to the Israelis.
As far as who they should deal with, I mean, look, they're going to send out Arashi, the foreign minister.
Arashi is an ambitious figure.
I think he wants to be the next president of Iran, as has been reported this week in the journal by Lawrence Norman and others.
You know, that's who you have to deal with.
And as opposed to trying to find someone in the junta to deal with, I mean, the reality is a lot of these people don't speak English.
You know, I don't think the administration should try to circumvent the Iranian process, frankly.
If they have a serious offer to end this war, they should extend it.
If they don't, they should come home.
I mean, to an extent, negotiations themselves may be provocative.
If President Trump just declares victory, we took out the supreme leader and announces that we are withdrawing, I think that can cool tensions.
It won't satisfy our partners, quote unquote, in Israel.
But this war is not ending until the president says no to Netanyahu.
Another aspect, and this is what Trita keeps saying on it when he's posting on Twitter, that the Iranians also, besides all those kind of military aspects, they're insisting upon sanctions relief.
And the reason is they've got to get sanctions relief.
Without sanctions relief, without sanctions relief, they are absolutely no cash.
Is that going to be a central part of this negotiation?
Because I don't see how President Trump gives them relief on sanctions, right?
Because sanctions brought him up to the knees and made him as weak as possible.
How, sir, as president said I can get this done in five days, is the Iran are the Iranians sitting there going, Trump is as smart as they get.
What he wants is his two Marine amphibia, his two Marine expeditionary units to show up.
Then he's got 5,000 combat troops, the 82nd airborne.
He can take the coast down by Hormuz.
He can get rid of the, those are kind of Arabs, not even Persians down there.
He can get rid of those guys and take Carg Island, cut us off from everything, and then we're toast.
Do you think that's going through their mind?
That they understand that.
I tell you what, stick through the break.
I want to get to this on the other side.
Now, more than ever, I think it's important for you to talk to the folks at Birch Gold.
We're in a world of turbulence.
The Qatari energy minister just said moments ago that if this war is not wrapped up by the end of the week, all exports out of the Persian Gulf of energy in all of its forms will cease.
Of course, the Qataris are great at playing both sides against the metal.
It's on the treacherous aspects of this war in the Gulf.
Okay, guys, thank you for doing this this morning again to keep this audience ahead of the curve, as you guys do, days ahead of the curve.
Eric, I'm going to let you go.
But like I said, the Qatar energy minister just warned that this war will force all Gulf, all Gulf nations to stop energy exports within days.
Now, I assume he's even talking about the 5 million barrels a day going from Saudi Arabia through the pipeline into the Red Sea outlet, but it's kind of general.
But that's a pretty stark warning for President Trump to deal with.
Indeed, and because we know that the Iranians will do whatever it takes to keep it going.
I mean, they're getting a war dividend based on what's happening so far.
We're seeing oil prices double, more than double now.
Of course, and like we've said, Steve, these Middle Eastern countries who claim to be our friends, Saudi, Qatar, I mean, really, Qatar has been all over the board as far as terrorism and friendly to the United States, all over the board.
They're not our friends.
They're interested in, they would love to see a $200 price tag for oil, any force measures they can do and any online production that they can pull offline because of some sort of attack on an infrastructure somewhere.
They'll do it and they'll be slow to pull it back up.
I'm not sure a hundred percent halt is possible, but a 50% halt would drive prices to $300 a barrel, $10 a gallon of gasoline.
They've got America's Achilles in their hand right now.
And I see it.
You've seen it.
And I'm just not sure why anyone else isn't seeing it right now.
That let's get the hell out of there.
Let's cut an international deal that's that's got teeth and let's get the hell out of the Middle East and let them let them blow each other up instead of like they used to do instead of us Where do people go to get your uh to get all your content, sir?
Well, at Eric Bowling on cross-social media, the edge on YouTube is a new show that we're doing.
But, Steve, you guys, your audience is amazing.
You jump on every time we come on.
But the biggest plus for me is when we do the four o'clock at RAV into your five o'clock show, that's where you're really going to get a lot of opinion, you're getting a lot of markets, you're going to understand a lot about the oil markets and the effect on the economy at four, and then you just get the geopolitics like nobody's business at five.
So, I think people are pretty, pretty well serviced between four and six p.m. every day on RAV.
Kurt, you've done a good job of framing this so people can understand how things develop.
So, give us your best shot here: President Trump day two of his trying to look through various alternatives where you have a cornered enemy that is experts in asymmetric warfare, and they're sitting there going, Hey, the Marines are heading here.
And once he's got the Marines, you know, maybe the 82nd Airborne, he's got another error in the quiver in addition to how we're getting hammered every night.
He is going to be the subject of a pressure campaign led by the Israelis and their allies in the United States to, quote, finish the job.
These are the same people that would say that the U.S. didn't stay in Vietnam long enough and that the only problem with the Iraq war is that we didn't stay longer.
The only problem with Afghanistan is that we didn't stay longer.
You see it playing out in the op-ed pages of the Wall Street Journal.
You see it on Fox News.
You see it in anything that's part of the Rupert Murdoch Empire.
They are going to drive Trump to try to do a larger war whenever it is.
Because you've seen what the president said, and he's been very vocal in the last 24 hours.
Well, he's going to Memphis on the tarmac.
I mean, that is Trump in deal mode.
When you say finish the, when they come to him and say finish the job, put some substance on that.
What do they mean?
What are they telling him to finish the job?
Because there's got to be some specifics there.
For him, he goes back and says, hey, look, I laid out, and remember, the White House made a big pivot yesterday.
They said, we no longer refer to this as a war.
We've always referred to this as a military operation.
The CENTCOM, Admiral Cooper and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, his senior military advisor, have been very specific about the military objectives of the military operation.
And if you talk to President Trump right now, you call him, you said, hey, look, Navy's gone, Air Force is gone, air defense is essentially gone.
I'm taking care of the industrial capacity.
I'm not touching, as they told him, I'm not going to touch the energy infrastructure.
I'm not going to touch the grid as much as we can avoid it.
So when others come to him, and clearly the Israelis have a broader war that they're fighting, we just heard McMaster say they took out a couple of Russian ships or hit Russian ships in the Caspian Sea that were supposedly bringing drones in to help the Revolutionary Guard.
And they're now commencing, looks like a major combined arms, both air and land campaign against the proxies of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
But when somebody calls him up and says, hey, look, don't listen to all this stuff.
I mean, the allies who support this and Trump's allies who support this can call whatever they want.
I saw that Hugh Hewitt with Tom Cotton yesterday called the Iraq War a battle.
He called the Gulf War a battle.
So I'm not really sure he's being served by the advice he's getting.
The American people are going to conclude rightly that this is a war.
And I think that if President Trump doesn't want his entire legacy to be about nation building and cleaning up the mess that the Israelis want in Iran, he should declare victory and come home.