Episode 5178: US And Israel Attack Iran; War Builds In The Middle East Cont.
Episode 5178: US and Israel’s Iran Strike—Stephen K. Bannon and experts like Sam Fattis (former intel officer) outline a regime-change push targeting Ayatollahs, IRGC, and MULAs, dismissing Western-backed factions like the MEK while warning of proxy retaliation via Bahrain’s Shia militias or Yemen’s Houthis. Military strikes aim to degrade Iran’s air defenses—including a $300M Bahrain radar hit—secure the Strait of Hormuz, and halt oil shipments to China (40% of its energy). AI shifts like OpenAI’s classified contracts signal deeper tech integration, but risks persist amid low Tomahawk stocks. With Trump timing strikes during China’s NPC (March 4–11), the episode frames this as a calculated move to reshape Iran’s future, whether through stability or chaos. [Automatically generated summary]
It's Saturday, 28 February in the year of our Lord 2026.
Our coverage today was going to be quite heavy on the preparations, potentially, how negotiations are going to preparation for potential military conflict.
The President of the United States, about, I don't know, early in the morning, early morning hours came forward with an eight-minute video and talked about major combat operations against Iran and the Ayatollah and the Mulas.
And we're going to try to break it down for you.
I think that we may add an extra hour of bonus coverage here to our traditional two hours on Saturday mornings.
So we're going to work through that.
We've got so many people to get in, so many of the experts we've worked with over the years to talk about this.
Sam Fattis, I want to start with you.
Sam, you dedicated, I think, 30, about 30 years of your life in defense of your country in some of the baddest neighborhoods in the world, sir.
Put us in the mindset, because I think this is one of the things we have to do is that the enemy gets a vote here.
And this is not, you know, this is an ancient civilization, right?
This is a country.
It's a vast country.
If you're over there, it's like shocking how big it is, how it looks, most of it barren.
But it's an ancient civilization, 90 million people, highly bureaucratic, has been an enemy of the West since the times of the Greeks and the Romans.
Always, I think the Romans would tell you their biggest enemies were not the Germans or the pacification of Gaul.
It was always the Persians.
The Athenians will tell you the exact same thing.
So many of the great battles handed down to us about the defense of democracies against the Persians.
Talk to us.
What is their mindset today?
Because clearly President Trump and the Israelis had a sense of the Persian people standing up against the Ayatollah, against the Mulas, against the Revolutionary Guard.
And this is why it was at least the first wave looks like a potential decapitation strike, sir.
And of course, as you have outlined exhaustively here, it has now been explicitly stated that the goal is regime change.
So this is a fight for survival on the part of the guys we're up against.
Internally, they'll be as brutal as they have to be.
They do not care how many people they kill.
And it's great to ask the Iranian people to rise up, and I hope that happens, but it is not that simple.
The Iranian regime will fight back.
They're already fighting back.
They have fired on watching the news.
It seems to be at least six countries that are allied with the United States and where U.S. forces are.
It appears that missiles or drones got through in Bahrain and hit Fifth Fleet, American Fifth Fleet headquarters.
They have already, their surrogates, I know in northern Iraq where the Kurds are, have already fired on Erbil.
I don't know that that was particularly effective.
But as you noted, the Houthis are already making noises.
But look, the Iranians are going to take this worldwide and they're going to take this into the realm where they feel they have an advantage.
So that means not just their surrogates all over the Middle East, and there are many of them.
I mean, they're all over Iraq.
They're all over the place.
Bahrain, where our Fifth Fleet headquarters is, which was already hit, majority of the people there are Shia and Iranian activity on that island has always been the main security threat to that regime.
But the Iranians can reach worldwide.
Their largest embassy is in Mexico City.
There aren't any Iranians in Mexico, so you can figure out why they have the largest official presence in Mexico City.
It isn't to spread Islam.
It's because it's a jumping off point into the United States.
They have longstanding connections to the cartels who we just schwacked a week or so ago.
So they will take it worldwide and potentially they will take it onto our soil and they will take it into a realm where they feel they can stand with us, where conventional capabilities and missiles and aircraft carriers don't count for very much.
Have there ever been, because President Trump specifically asked for the, that we're doing this so that you can stand up.
You've had this for what, 47 years.
The people in Iran today or their parents or grandparents are the ones that brought the Islamic revolution and threw out the Shah, who was our biggest ally at the time.
But he's calling on those people, you got a shot now to take back your government.
How deep is the discontent in Persia, you know, after 47 years?
And obviously what was a, at the time, a nation trying to build a middle class is now looks like in relative poverty about where they should be.
As your assessment as an intelligence officer, how deep is this discontent go?
And are these people waiting?
President Trump says, now is the hour of your liberty.
I have no doubt that the majority of people in Iran would welcome and cheer and dance in the streets if the Ayatollahs were gone.
But wanting that and making it happen are two different things.
These guys, the regime just killed, as far as I can tell, somewhere around 30,000 of their own citizens in the streets to crush the demonstrations that happened recently.
There is no limit to the amount of force and brutality they will use.
So, you know, to overthrow a regime like that, you really need organization and planning and assistance.
It's not as simple as just saying, everybody go out in the street and take over.
Now, I hope to God that happens because that would be wonderful for the Persian people to be free.
But wishing it is so and making it so are two totally different things.
Well, to do this, okay, so you have there's never, at least in modern times with air power, there's never been a regime change just on air power alone.
You know, we've tried it before with major military assets.
We tried it with paramilitary in Afghanistan that worked brilliantly at first before you started to try to nation build.
Do you think besides the Mossad, do you think we've done enough infiltration to actually work with those?
John Salma was on here earlier and John's out on a skiff right now.
He'll be back with us later, but saying MEK and the Kurds and all these disparate elements that, quite frankly, are anti-Ayatollah and certainly anti-regime.
Do you think there's been enough infiltration of all these different groups or can people put aside 30,000 that got slaughtered and say, hey, if the Americans are going to come in and flatten the Ayatollah's house, it's time for us to rise up, grab what we can, convince the military, if not the Revolutionary Guard, and let's get on.
Let's meet the moment when President Trump says, now is the hour of your liberty.
No, I don't think there's been enough infiltration.
And people think about Iraq and the efforts we went to to ultimately convince the Iraqis to essentially give up Saddam Hussein.
Okay.
But still, it came down to us having to put troops on the ground.
And look, I was inside Iraq with a team for a year in advance of that invasion, but I was already building on efforts that the CIA had been sustaining for many years.
We never walked away from the Kurds, never walked away.
So we had been working that problem for year after year after year to build that.
Do we have that inside Iran?
We do not.
If this regime falls, if there is this collapse, my estimation, it will be because some guys who are in power at the top effectively stage what amounts to a coup and say, enough of this.
We got to change course.
And it will come in that way.
Somebody within the IRGC, somebody at that level will break ranks.
That's where they're putting, that's where either some military part of the military or the IGRC say, hey, look, we got to save the nation.
We're Persians.
We got to save the country.
The Ayatollah's got to go.
Now, I just want to put, not to bed, but because Fox has been rolling him out the last couple of weeks.
You had the huge thing in Munich.
Being that I was there, I studied the Shah and the family a lot, particularly in exile.
They've been promoting.
It's like Chalabi in Iraq.
And you know the situation there.
People in DC, and for those of those too young, if you remember Fox, you had this guy Chalabi.
He was going to be the guy we were going to put in.
He had the Iraqi National Congress, I think it was.
He was everywhere as our guy.
And when he went back, he disappeared into history because nobody in Iraq knew who the guy was.
You've got the Shah's son.
You've had this huge demonstration.
A lot of people in the West, and particularly Fox News, particularly, has had him on a lot.
Is there any potential or any enthusiasm that you see, given your knowledge of this region, any appetite to bring the Shah or his family back in some sort of these monarchists?
I mean, if he wants to be Shah of like old town Alexandria or something, I guess maybe that's relevant.
But he's another one of these characters that's well known and well loved in Western European capitals in Washington, D.C.
He is not the guy to lead the country, and I don't think he has any huge following.
I know over the years working with real Iranian patriots, guys who were going back inside the country and working for freedom, that they generally disparaged him as a fraud and somebody who wouldn't get in the fight, wouldn't risk anything, but wanted to pretend that he was going to return one day.
Explain who MEK is because MEK has been put up today, the Kurds, et cetera.
It's called Iran now, but it's essentially Persia.
You do have some smaller groups there.
MEK, are they not a combination of, and they've been fighting this, and they got Rudy and other people that have been big supporters of them over the years and decades, these conferences.
What is MEK and do they have a potential to step in here?
I'm going to be down in Bucks County at an event sponsored by Write for Bucks, which is one of the premier patriot groups in the state of Pennsylvania and addressing those folks.
They are as MAGA as you can get.
And they asked me to come down there and they have been in the fight for years.
You guys have got one of the most hardcore patriot movements ever in the great state of Pennsylvania.
Eventually, we're going to get there about the stealing of the 2020 election with those mail-in ballots in Philadelphia.
Hang on if you can, Sam.
I know you got to blow it here at noon.
Eric Prince is going to join us.
Dr. Bradley Thayer.
Brandon Weichert has an update.
Captain Finnell has an update.
We're going to get to all of it to make sure that you've got every tool in the toolbox to make sure you can think through as America at least commences major combat operations in Iran.
Looks like it could be spilling out in some other areas.
Houthi's getting involved.
Maybe the British are stepping in.
We'll make it all make sense next in the War Room.
We're going to go to momentarily for updates, but I want to go to the White House, our own Neil McCabe.
A speaker, as we had Mike Johnson, or Susan, we had Mike Davis up here talking about the authorization because already the Democrats are pushing back and some others.
Speaker Johnson's given the president a little bit of air cover.
Of course, Johnson, of course, is a constitutional lawyer.
And so I think that's why he was motivated to do this.
Today, Iran is facing severe consequences of its evil actions.
President Trump and the administration have made every effort to pursue peaceful and diplomatic solutions in response to the Iranian regime's sustained nuclear ambitions, development, and terrorism, and the murder of Americans, even their own people.
And I'll just skip down to the key paragraph.
The gang of eight was briefed in detail earlier this week that military action may be necessary to protect American troops and American citizens in Iran.
I received updates from Secretary Rubio thereafter.
I'm not sure we have a lot of contractors in Iran.
If we have contractors, they're guys like Eric Prince.
They're those types of contractors.
I'm not sure there's a lot of contractors in Iran.
I could be wrong, but I don't know if that's a justification.
So essentially, he's saying English is a very important thing.
He's saying what has been this controversy, that Rubio, the gang of eight, is both the intelligence folks from both sides.
The party in control, which are the Republicans in the Senate, in the House, and the ranking members on these intelligence and armed services could be get all the certain briefings, the high-level briefings.
So Rubio went up there and briefed the gang of eight.
Now, Schumer and others are saying it wasn't enough.
They had too many questions.
They didn't understand what was going on.
Do you think this is going to be enough?
Mike Davis says, hey, he's already got authorization and he's just going to use what we've been using for 25 years.
Is that what you're hearing out of the White House?
Number one, I just want to make sure the White House has come out and said all this rumor that the president is going to address the nation in another announcement.
So there's a traveling pool with the president in Mar-a-Lago, and the White House comm staff will tell those guys, hey, you know, you don't need to be around until this time.
And so what they're telling them is that nothing is going to happen until 2 p.m.
At 2 p.m., you can show up at Mar-a-Lago and be on standby in case something happens.
But I didn't get the impression that there was going to be a statement.
I just got the impression that they're just trying to give people time so that they can get lunch.
I have gotten confirmation that the radar that was supposedly hit this morning, our radar in Bahrain, $300 million piece of equipment, ANTPS-59, is destroyed.
There are likely more damage to other radar systems now.
The key thing here to remember, Steve, it is very obvious now that the Iranian strategy is to first degrade American, Arab, and Israeli abilities to detect incoming missiles.
I just got word from somebody on the ground in the Middle East.
Their belief is that Iran is attempting to degrade all of our air defenses in the region, believing that they will be depleted soon.
And then they are preparing to launch a massive swarm attack with our depleted air defenses not being able to defend against them.
Again, we don't know for sure if that's going to happen, but I do think that seems to be the plan right now.
The U.S. air defenses, as I said earlier, though, have held up relatively so far, but it does seem like these are all shaping operations, Steve.
I don't think the big one has even started yet.
And there's rumors now that the British might be coming in to backfill some of these air defense systems.
Haifa's also, by the way, Haifa may have been hit as well in the last hour.
That is still waiting to be confirmed, but there is some compelling video that's been released in the last 30 minutes that indicates perhaps an Iranian long-range missile did in fact get through.
Basically, before the big battle or the big war initiates, you want to go in and kind of mold the environment through directed attacks and sort of covert maneuvers so that your main forces, when they arrive, have as much maneuvering room and favorable environment, a permissive environment as possible.
We're doing it.
The Israelis are doing it to Iran.
It looks like the Iranians are trying to do it to us with these missile strikes on radar systems and whatnot.
So that's what's going on right now.
But if you look at the size of this thing, to me, it doesn't seem yet large enough to accomplish that which President Trump is claiming he wants to accomplish.
As part of our commitments to the security of our allies in the Middle East, we have a range of defensive capabilities in the region, which we've recently strengthened.
Our forces are active, and British planes are in the sky today as part of coordinated regional defensive operations to protect our people, our interests, and our allies.
It was a week ago that they said we couldn't even use the air base that we have.
I think Fairfield that we have most of our assets at because the Muslim majority, minority, 57 Muslim members of parliament that are labor guys didn't want any asset of the United States to be striking an Islamic Republic.
Well, it's a positive step for Kier Starmer, finally, that he's supporting the U.S. in this operation at a time where we need allies, not only the Gulf Shaykhdoms, Saudi Arabia, but it's very nice and important that the British are involved in this operation.
So, you know, now we're focusing, Steve, of course, and rightfully so on the conduct of the war.
We also need to start thinking about the consequences of this war.
When we're thinking about the conduct, you and Sam nailed it.
It's can air power bring about regime change, air power in conjunction with Israeli special operators and U.S. special operators who would be working with Iranians, the Iranian mass level, and then also Iranian groups.
That's the missing piece of the puzzle here.
Can that actually come about without having the theocracy murder their own people in greater numbers than Sam identified, which is shocking, or have Iran devolve into civil war?
So we might begin thinking about situations like Iraq in 1991, where we're going to have to have a semi-permanent no-fly zone, where we're going to have to have dedicated military assets to ensuring that Iran stays together as a country, if we want it to stay together, that the theocracy cannot kill its own people,
and that the humanitarian needs of the Iranian people are going to be addressed.
So the conduct of the war is ongoing, obviously.
A lot to focus on in the days and likely weeks to come.
But the consequences of this are going to be profound, obviously, for the U.S., the region, and Iran.
I think now more than ever, particularly when the markets open on Monday, maybe you talk to Philip Patrick and the team over the weekend.
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And you talk to Philip Patrick and the team, the best in the business.
And you get End of the Dollar Empire that we started putting out, I don't know, five years ago.
It's got a bound edition a day of Patriots Edition.
The special is off, but you never know.
Maybe we talk Birch Gold back into putting it up.
You get a free edition up until last night, midnight, unfortunately.
Free edition.
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Go check it out.
And we're coming out with the eighth installment momentarily.
That'll be online.
This one's bound.
Mo, up, this is what you talked about yesterday at West Point, that it's time to focus on warfighting because situations like this are going to pop up.
So we need to focus, like I've said in both board meetings, we need to get back to focusing on warfighting because if these future graduates deploy in support of an operation, the American people need to have full faith and confidence that they can lead America's sons and daughters.
Well, I think, first of all, that being the goal and what we have seen in the scale of the deployments by the United States, it is clear we're not talking about a day of airstrikes or two days of airstrikes.
This is going to be a sustained operation go on for some time.
We can hope that the Iranian regime collapses, and I'll be the first guy to celebrate if that happens, having devoted a big chunk of my life to that cause.
But if it doesn't collapse and you've got these guys against their backs against the wall and you've made it an existential fight, you can expect them to lash out in every way they can.
And I think increasingly you will see that will be unconventional.
They will fight us where they feel they have the advantage or they can at least stand toe-to-toe with us.
I would note, as an Appalachian American and Scots-Irish, we're better dancers than the Houthis.
But I take your point.
All kidding aside, they are for real.
There are lots of folks like we could see Bahrain being bombs going off all over Manama, all over Bahrain by Shia militia and Shia terrorist groups affiliated with the Iranis.
And there's no doubt in your mind right now that President Trump understands that.
And he's saying, I'm going to take care of that reach.
When this thing's over, they're not going to have worldwide reach.
They're going to be like Caesar pacified Gaul.
President Trump has kind of said, this is going to come to an end.
It's been 47 years.
And I realize a lot of people and people in the MAGA movement are saying, hey, I thought we were stopping forever wars.
But President Trump, to me, was pretty blunt in this eight-minute address to the nation in the middle of the night or to the world and saying that their kind of their run of doing this is over.
Yeah, I think Brandon's right to use the term shaping operations.
We have to declaw the Iranian military threat to our forces.
The president said our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats, menacing activities that directly endanger the United States, our troops, and our overseas bases and our allies.
So that's what we're doing right now.
And going after ballistic missile sites, going after surface-to-air missile sites, going after anti-ship cruise missile sites, anti-ballistic missile sites against our ships, all of those and their naval forces.
Obviously, their air forces are no threat to us.
So I said last week when we were on, we talked about the difference between air superiority, building to air supremacy.
We're in that phase right now where we're building.
We've had our initial strikes.
We want to establish the ability to fly over Iran without the risk to our aircraft so that we can call down fires on any additional forces that try to generate these waves of missile attacks or drone attacks.
And so that's what we're shaping towards.
And you asked, why was this happening now?
Well, I can tell you one reason it may be happening now is starting on the 4th of March in Beijing, we'll have the National People's Congress.
Xi Japing and the Communist Party of China will be focused from 4 to 11 March on their National People's Congress.
And given all the purges and all the other things that's going on in China, they're going to be diverted from getting involved with this, at least for now.
They probably already have been involved, but it's going to be very hard for them to insert themselves now.
We're running the cards in the table on this right now and rolling back the decades of military capabilities that the Iranians have received from the Russians and the Chinese.
That is the objective right now, to then be able to do the follow-on larger strikes that will be able to take out more of the forces that are used against the Iranian people.
So I would say President Trump picked the perfect time.
He used deception.
Remember, last week you had those articles in Axios that said that the chairman was against the strike, everybody.
And then you brought on the Omani delegate.
So there was a lot of deception that went on here.
And we always think of the Chinese are very good at deception, but I think President Trump is as well.
And I think at the tactical and operational level, we will be using deception to be able to ferret out these remaining parts of the Iranian military regime that can strike outside of their shores and borders so that we're not constantly at threat.
I made many transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
It's always a dangerous and deadly risk when you go through there because you're essentially driving through their missile envelopes.
And we need to eliminate that so that the free flow of goods and services and oil and everything else that comes in and out isn't under the hostage threat from the Iranians.
And so I think that's what we're doing right now.
We're shaping the environment to roll those threats back so that we can operate with freedom and have air and sea supremacy in the region.
Do you think, you know, I think at most the Straits of Hormuz is 21 miles geographically, but the strait itself is much tighter, as you know, having gone through there.
Do you believe that one of the things I think we have to do?
I'd be surprised if we haven't done it, but I haven't heard it, cut off the oil coming out and going to the CCP, because I think it's 40% of the CCP's energy, but it's like 80 or 90% now of the cash flow going to the MULAs.
If you take Scott Besson's destruction of their currency, you add this.
Have you heard any word of anything you've seen?
Those like we've at least begun a naval blockade or quarantine against their oil going to the Chinese Communist Party?
I don't think anybody's shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz today.
And so it depends on how long this goes, what conditions we establish.
But I think that is obviously one of the objective: to cut off the money to the MULAs, and also an ancillary impact is to remind China their vulnerabilities and that they need to behave and not consider other activities in their region out there in the Indo-Pacific.
But I would say with the forces that we have there right now, nobody is going to, with the missiles that will be flying, have been flying and can continue to fly, I don't see commercial oil tankers going in and out right now, not for the near term.
So all these carriers are tied into this joint commander that's probably in gutter with, and they run what they call an air tasking order.
So the air component commander will be leading an orchestration of targets that have been selected, you know, years ago, weeks ago, months ago, built up, designed.
We'll know where a lot of this stuff is.
Targets assigned to the specific airframes from the Air Force, from the Navy, assigned to our TLAM.
A lot of TLAMs will be used, have probably already been used.
So that'll be orchestrated.
All the communications are together, and that cycle of targeting that goes on on a 24-hour basis that we're just constantly assessing, evaluating, and going after targets.
If we see that we miss something, we'll go back after it.
If we see something moving, those are time-sensitive targets.
We'll go after the time-sensitive targets.
So that process is well honed since Desert Storm, where the Navy and the Air Force really started getting together in what they call the Joint Force Air Component Commander concept to coordinate and orchestrate our air operations, not just with aircraft, but with our Navy ships and submarines and their TLAM and all fires, all fires from all services.
It's not just Navy Air Force.
All services that are involved that are able to project power will be coordinated through this system that we have.
And everybody has dialed into this and is aware of what's going on in not just only their portion, but the larger portion.
And so if somebody gets taken out in one sector, that can, a leadership role can be taken by another place.
So if somebody were to take out the JFAC in gutter, we could pick up operations with our two carriers or even back in Tampa at CENTCOM.
So there's a lot of flexibility that we have in command and control.
And those are from years of lessons, 35 years of lessons that we have learned as a joint force to bring fires like this.
And so it's really about sustainment and how we can continue to go for as long as we need to until we achieve all those targeting objectives that we've set forward in the plan that was put forward and we're executing right now.
Well, Steve, it's good to be back, albeit at a very solemn time in our country's history, maybe humanity's history.
The tension between the Department of War and Anthropic has come to the breaking point.
Of course, Anthropic is now being cut off from all contracts with the U.S. military and any contractors that deal with the U.S. military.
Immediately after that, you had Sam Altman stepping in saying that OpenAI would take over with the analysis of classified documents with their AI.
So it shows you that the power of this technology is not simply a hype campaign by the Silicon Valley set.
The power of this technology is being recognized by the Department of War.
I fear that the Department of War has not really reckoned with the dangers of this technology and the inaccuracies this technology brings, but this is a critical moment, not only geopolitically, not only culturally, but on a technological level.
And this is why Humans First was formed.
And this is why we are trying our best to use the means that we have at our disposal to put the power back with the American people and to, in any way possible, to give American people agency over where this technology goes.
People should know Joe over the last couple of months has been working behind the scenes with the major players in the industry to help get all this organized.
You're going to be launching events you're going to be doing.
We'll see the first run of town hall tours begins next week.
So Monday at noon on the front steps of the state capital of Florida in Tallahassee press conference with a whole array of very, very notable figures.
And then two days later on Wednesday, you have a town hall in West Palm Beach.
The location will be up on the website.
That's humansfirst.com.
And then an event I've been looking forward to for months, Georgia Tech on Friday, 6 p.m. Georgia Tech, all that info up not only at my website, but also humansfirst.com.
And then back to Dallas for a talk at First Baptist Church, downtown Dallas.
That's Sunday at 5 p.m. Central.
And it will be great to return.
So this is just the beginning of what will ultimately be a full nationwide campaign.
So they should go to, if the War Room Posse wants to get involved and we want you involved, we want your voice.
Humansfirst.com or at Realhumans, First on X and, of course, my social media handle at JOEBOT XYZ.
Now more than ever, we're covering also we're going to do the pregame with Joe on Monday we're covering live, obviously all these Human first events, starting with the press conference on the steps of the state capitol in Florida.
I got to tell you, Governor DeSantis Governor DeSantis has been on point on this thing Joe Allen Joe, one more time, where do people go for Humans First?
Go to Humansfirst.com, everything there and, of course, sign up and then at REAL Humans, First on X, and then, of course, my handle at J-O-E-B-O-T-XYZ on X. All this info will be up on my site as well at X and then, of course, my website, Joebot.xyz.
The posse's been in it the entire time for five years now.
Yeah well, I think, like most of us, we're hoping there'll be a diplomatic offering.
But if not um, we're it's, it's on, we're in it.
So now we got to win it.
You can't, you can't go into these things and lose.
So Trump's got a strategy, Hexac's got a strategy and we got I see A Shahid drone, one of the ones that got popular in Ukraine war, made its way into Bahrain and took out the fifth fleet radar dome, billion dollar dome by a $30,000, a billion-dollar radar dome was taken out by a $30,000 drone.
So we got to take these things out before they can launch.
That's what needs to happen.
We need to dominate the sky in Iran and take out everything before they can get their weapons into the air.