May 14, 2025 - Bannon's War Room
48:54
Participants
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| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
|
unidentified
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Isolating Iran. | |
| If you get all these people to start working together with the United States, I mean, you are really putting Iran in harm's way with a bunch of arrows pointing at them. | ||
| They got nowhere to go. | ||
| The biggest line yesterday in the speech, that speech was historic. | ||
| Of course, the mainstream media is barely talking about it. | ||
| He gives this historic speech two days ago. | ||
| And the power of the speech, the most important line where he says, He wants countries to develop by their cultures and their societies. | ||
| We're not going to get involved in that, in democracy, forcing democracy on people. | ||
| But then he says, under no circumstances will we allow the Persians basically to get a nuclear weapon. | ||
| That got thunderous applause, and he's not speaking in the Knesset. | ||
| That's among the most senior Arab leaders in the world. | ||
| They're 100% with us on this. | ||
| No one wants military intervention, but President Trump's laid it down and actually talked about in the speech what the war room does. | ||
| Let's cut the oil off. | ||
| 90% of their cash flow You got two carrier battle groups in Red Sea, move one over to the Straits of Hormuz and say, hey guys, you got to turn the ships around. | ||
| You're not going to China. | ||
| And let's see what they look like in 100 days after that. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yep, that's China's Achilles, the oil energy. | |
| Steve, we took a couple minutes of your time. | ||
| Appreciate your time. | ||
| Good to get you back in our e-block. | ||
| Tomorrow we have a little bit more time. | ||
| Hey, if you're here Friday, we've got a game to play with you. | ||
| You're going to like it. | ||
| By the way, you're the best opening A block I got. | ||
| So, I mean, come on. | ||
| I'm using you. | ||
| Don't have your agent call me, okay? | ||
|
unidentified
|
I don't have an agent. | |
| We're using this as a freebie. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Sig is my agent. | |
| I think he might be yours, though. | ||
| Have a great show, Steve. | ||
| Love you, Eric. | ||
| Thank you for doing it. | ||
| Okay, you're in the War Room. | ||
| We're going to pack this afternoon. | ||
| Let's go. | ||
| We've got a great cold open for you put together by the Crack War Room production team. | ||
| Let's let it rip. | ||
| Hold on, there's a question back there for us. | ||
|
unidentified
|
I have two quick questions. | |
| First, President Trump has talked about potentially suspending his office to take care of the illegal immigration problem. | ||
| When could we see that happen, do you think? | ||
| Well, the Constitution is clear, and that, of course, is the supreme law of the land. | ||
| That the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus can be suspended in a time of invasion. | ||
| So I would say that's an option we're actively looking at. | ||
| Look, a lot of it depends on whether the courts do the right thing or not. | ||
| At the end of the day, Congress passed a body of law known as the Immigration Nationality Act, which stripped Article III courts, that's the judicial branch of jurisdiction over immigration cases. | ||
| So Congress actually passed, it's called jurisdiction stripping legislation. | ||
| It passed a number of laws that say that the Article III courts aren't even allowed to be involved in immigration cases. | ||
| Many of you probably don't know this. | ||
| I'll give you a good example. | ||
| Are you familiar with the term temporary protected status, or TPS, right? | ||
| So by statute, the courts are stripped of jurisdiction from overruling a presidential determination. | ||
| Or a secretarial determination on TPS when the Secretary of Homeland Security makes that determination. | ||
| So when Secretary Noem terminated TPS for the illegals that Biden flew into the country, when courts stepped in, they were violating explicit language that Congress had enacted, saying they have no jurisdiction. | ||
| So it's not just the courts aren't just at war with the executive branch. | ||
| The courts are at war, these radical rogue judges, with the legislative branch as well, too. | ||
| So all of that will inform the choices the president ultimately makes, yes. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Ms. Noem, are you familiar with Article 1, Section 9, Clause 2 of the Constitution that covers the suspension of the writ of habeas corpus? | |
| Yes. | ||
| It says that the writ of habeas corpus shall not be suspended unless when cases of rebellion or invasion, the public safety may require it. | ||
| Are you aware of which presidents have suspended the writ of habeas corpus? | ||
| I know that President Lincoln did. | ||
| Yeah, also Roosevelt and President Grant. | ||
| You testified under oath, I believe, that the Biden administration allowed an invasion into our country. | ||
| Is that correct? | ||
| That is correct. | ||
| So do you think it falls under the constitutional guidelines that I just read to you? | ||
| I'm not a constitutional lawyer, but I believe it does. | ||
| You've also witnessed that the Democrats here today and also radical activist judges are trying to halt and deny the president's agenda to carry out his constitutional duties to keep Americans safe, And carry out his promise to the American people to secure the border and carry out mass deportations of those who have entered the country illegally. | ||
| Knowing this, are you open and supportive of this constitutional option to suspend the writ of habeas corpus to keep Americans safe and carry out the president's agenda? | ||
| Well, this is something that's not in my purview to weigh in on. | ||
| This is the president's prerogative. | ||
| To pursue and he has not indicated to me that he will or will not be taking that action. | ||
| I want to thank Rogan O 'Hanley for his efforts to bring this constitutional solution into the national conversation. | ||
| This is the primal scream of a dying regime. | ||
|
unidentified
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Pray for our enemies, because we're going medieval on these people. | |
| I got a free shot of all these networks lying about the people. | ||
| The people have had a belly full of it. | ||
| I know you don't like hearing that. | ||
| I know you try to do everything in the world to stop that, but you're not going to stop it. | ||
| It's going to happen. | ||
| And where do people like that go to share the big lie? | ||
|
unidentified
|
MAGA Media. | |
| I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a conscience. | ||
|
unidentified
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Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose? | |
| If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved. | ||
|
unidentified
|
War Room. | |
| Here's your host, Stephen K. Band. | ||
| Wednesday, 14 May, Year of Our Lord, 2025. | ||
| Absolutely packed today from the Qatar all the way to the United States, all the way across the country. | ||
| Got so much to go through. | ||
| But this, I'm telling you, as we had Matt Gaetz on here today, Of the converging crises in the second hundred days of President Trump's presidency, this will be the definitional part. | ||
| The radical judges, judicial supremacy over the commander-in-chief, over the chief executive officer of the government, over the chief magistrate and chief law enforcement officer, that would be the Article II powers of the presidency, are hurtling towards a catechismic, I think, Was it Denimoire? | ||
| Rogan and Hanley joins us. | ||
| Rogan, now in Congress, they're asking the head of DHS that's at the White House. | ||
| Behind the scenes, it's starting to pick up a lot of momentum. | ||
| Mike Davis and, of course, Matt Gaetz think we've got a lot more runway before you've got to get there. | ||
| Walk us through where you think we stand right now with the suspension of the writ of habeas corpus sur. | ||
| Well, I think you nailed it. | ||
| There's just a lot of momentum. | ||
| I very much appreciate Representative Eli Crane for the shout-out, but this is the War Room. | ||
| The credit goes to the War Room Posse, because if it weren't for you bringing me on to discuss it and the War Room Posse spreading this message, supporting it, sharing it. | ||
| Everyone watching this is the reason this may end up happening. | ||
| And I do agree there is a process that needs to play out, which is what I've noticed in the change in President Trump's phrasing, right? | ||
| He's calling it an invasion in all caps and saying, I don't know why that's not being included in all our legal filings, that this is an invasion. | ||
| 20 million people coming across the board, if you ask anyone. | ||
| With a brain, they're going to say, yeah, that's an invasion. | ||
| If not, what is? | ||
| 30 million, 40 million? | ||
| And so there is a process that needs to play out before I think the American people will be like, okay, let's do this. | ||
| But every time the deep state, these corrupt institutions... | ||
| They weaponize themselves against President Trump. | ||
| He emerges victorious. | ||
| They did it with the impeachment. | ||
| They abused it. | ||
| He came out more popular. | ||
| They did it with the indictments. | ||
| He came out more popular. | ||
| And now they're doing it with a judicial coup. | ||
| People are wisening up to the fact that this is not normal to have this many national injunctions and for these judges to fight tooth and nail to keep violent cartel members inside this country when they didn't lift a finger to stop the 10 to 20 million coming across our border under Joe Biden. | ||
| The American people are not dumb. | ||
| They voted across the board, full control of the government, for a president that touted mass deportations and now these radical activists in robes are trying to stop them. | ||
| At a certain point, what else can we do? | ||
| And I ask people to look ahead a little bit, okay? | ||
| Say we don't do mass deportation. | ||
| Say we only deport 2 million in his term. | ||
| Guess what happens under President Gavin Newsom? | ||
| Another 10 to 20 million come in. | ||
| Now we're 30, 40 million deep. | ||
| And if he wins re-election because of rigged elections or whatever, 50, 60, we don't have a country anymore. | ||
| It will be toast. | ||
| It will be done. | ||
| So it's not even, oh, we want to just get these illegals out. | ||
| This is for the survival of the country, which is why I think in hindsight, in historical hindsight, President Trump will look and emerge as one of our best presidents if he does this, because he will truly have saved the republic. | ||
| Three just facts. | ||
| I want to go back over how driving this. | ||
| Number one, let's leave the ones that folks came before. | ||
| Just on Biden's watch, we know from every bit of analysis and assessment from DHS and others, 10 million illegal alien invaders just here in those four years. | ||
| Number one. | ||
| Number two, you've got $170 billion in these budgets, $170 billion to replace them. | ||
| That's a fact. | ||
| I mean, how do people look the other way? | ||
| That is the definition of invasion. | ||
| Just to deport these takes $170 billion. | ||
| Fact number three is that it was supposed to take us decades, the Langford bill, two million more invaders here before anything kicked in. | ||
| Trump shut that down in 60 to 90 days. | ||
| That's secure. | ||
| He's going to build the wall and other things, but... | ||
| We've stopped the invasion because it was an invasion. | ||
| People are like, you know, the mainstream media don't address it. | ||
| You stop the invasion in 60 to 90 days, of which even Republicans said best case is going to be 2 million, like 2 million new folks a year before any of the stuff to stop them kicked in in the Langford bill. | ||
| You've got $170 billion in the reconciliation bill to deport these people, to set up the logistics chain, right? | ||
| And it's been demonstrated that there's 10 million here. | ||
| How much more evidence do you need that it's an invasion and it's his right as commander-in-chief to remove these people, sir? | ||
| I couldn't agree more, Steve. | ||
| And we've seen, you know, it's not just the border wall. | ||
| even with strong immigration enforcement, it just takes one radical Democrat president to completely disassemble it and basically tie Border Patrol's hands behind We can rely on these deportations because as much as they open the border, they can only get, as we've seen, about 10 million in per term before people rise up. | ||
| A lot of this has to do with the 2030 census, okay? | ||
| And it's not just the survival of the country. | ||
| This is about power, pure and simple. | ||
| Let's call it what it is. | ||
| Democrats, they don't give a hoot about the charitable aspect of this, about giving these people a better life. | ||
| This is purely about power. | ||
| We've seen how they're freaking out when 59 South African farmers come into this country. | ||
| Oh, you guys want to save people who are under actual persecution? | ||
| Unless they're stable families who come in the legal way, right? | ||
| We've seen them flip out. | ||
| This is purely about power. | ||
| Blue states have done such a terrible job at maintaining residence. | ||
| Everyone's fleeing to red states that they're getting depopulated. | ||
| They're going to lose electoral college votes. | ||
| There's 12. Electoral college votes are going to swing to safe red seats in the 2030 census. | ||
| If you deport 15, 20 million illegal aliens, that's 26 congressional seats worth of representation, which, unfortunately, our Supreme Court allows illegals to be counted in the census. | ||
| So this is about 2030. | ||
| That is a massive turning point in our country. | ||
| But you know what I want to do, Steve? | ||
| I call it Operation Martha's Vineyard. | ||
| All we want... | ||
| is what they did on Martha's Vineyard. | ||
| When 48 illegals touched down, they mobilized the National Guard within 48 hours and booted them all without a trial. | ||
| If it's good enough for Martha's Vineyard Democrats, it's good enough for the rest of us. | ||
| Rogan, can you hang on for a second? | ||
| I want to go back and tie something together that you brought up that's quite brilliant about the 2030 census. | ||
| Rogan O 'Hanley is the author of this idea. | ||
| Of suspending the writ of habeas corpus, taking it from history from three presidents. | ||
| Kind of, you know, random. | ||
| FDR, General Grant, and President Abraham Lincoln during the Civil War. | ||
| All three of them suspended it. | ||
| Pretty big names, right? | ||
| Short commercial break. | ||
| Rogan's going to be on the side. | ||
| Also, have a new MAGA candidate that just won big in the New York City area. | ||
| He's going to be here. | ||
| EJ and Tony. | ||
| Man. | ||
| Senator Johnson today lit it up talking about, what, $60 trillion by 2035 or something. | ||
| People's heads are blowing up. | ||
| Exactly where we're heading on this financing. | ||
| I tell you how you guys protect yourself. | ||
| You've got to understand the system. | ||
| You have to understand the process. | ||
| The end of the dollar empire is seven free installments we put together. | ||
| It's kind of like a college course, but very accessible. | ||
| To make you understand it's not the price of gold, it's the process of what drives the price of gold. | ||
| Birch Gold is our partner. | ||
| Go to birchgold.com slash Bannon. | ||
| The seventh free installment on the end of the dollar empire is out. | ||
| The Rio Reset that's going to take place in July. | ||
| So President Trump's got this issue with the Constitution. | ||
| It's got to be settled, I think, by the end of June. | ||
| You got the Rio Reset getting rid of the dollar in July. | ||
| And then you got the debt ceiling. | ||
| We're going to talk more about that. | ||
| The debt ceiling in August. | ||
| We hit it. | ||
| End of the dollar empire. | ||
| Birchgold.com slash Bannon. | ||
| Go get it today. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Here's your host. | |
| So, Rogan, take a second here. | ||
| I want to go back to the 2030 census. | ||
| Demographically, the country is moving south and southwest to red states. | ||
| Arizona, Texas. | ||
| Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina. | ||
| It's just overwhelming how they're going south and going to areas of the southwest and even some of the other parts of the west that are MAGA, you know, MAGA-centric. | ||
| Talk to me about the 2030 census because the Democrats are playing the long game here. | ||
| They understand that the time that census is done, and remember, I was the guy along with a couple of others in the White House that tried to force the issue of commerce. | ||
| To make sure that the illegal aliens here did not count. | ||
| We thought it was outrageous. | ||
| But go ahead and walk us through the 2030 census. | ||
| Why is this so important? | ||
| Why are you talking about basically 12 new congressional seats that will give us a big spread in the House? | ||
| Also add electoral college votes that may be insurmountable to the Democrats. | ||
| Yeah, absolutely, Steve. | ||
| I mean, this is the grand prize. | ||
| This is what Democrats are fighting for. | ||
| You know, I would say second best is to get illegals to actually be able to vote, right, to get them amnesty. | ||
| That's their dream. | ||
| But they'd be happy with just having bodies in states. | ||
| And that's what they're playing for. | ||
| That's why they flooded the zone with 10 million illegals, because they said, even though we know this is probably going to smoke us in the election. | ||
| We're playing for the 2030 census because if they don't remain here, they stand to lose over 12 electoral college seats in California, in New York, in Massachusetts, in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, in Wisconsin, and they're going to red states. | ||
| They're going to Florida. | ||
| They're going to Georgia. | ||
| They're going to Texas. | ||
| They're going to Nevada. | ||
| And a few, North Carolina. | ||
| And what that would mean, Steve, is we would not, Republicans would not even need to campaign in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin to win the White House. | ||
| Only the safe red states would need to be won, and they'd cakewalk into the White House with a very comfortable House majority, because when they lose these electoral college seats, those are congressional seats. | ||
| Now we're redistricting again, and you're going to add two more seats. | ||
| Maybe three. | ||
| Remember, they stole three to five seats in this last census, right? | ||
| We saw that. | ||
| Biden got to kind of clean up right at the last minute after the 2020 census, and they found out that Massachusetts kept the seat they shouldn't have. | ||
| California kept the seat they should because of errors in calculations, right? | ||
| We're already operating at an unfair disadvantage. | ||
| But yeah, this is what it comes down to. | ||
| I hate to say it, but even if we lost in 2028, if he actually deported 10 to 15 million illegal aliens, they could not stack the country quick enough by the 2030 census to have that impact. | ||
| But this is why your habeas corpus on the commander-in-chief is so important, because they're trying to delay us to deny. | ||
| Just mathematics to get 10 million out. | ||
| Now, the clock's burning. | ||
| They want to make it so painful. | ||
| On the worst of the worst, of the criminals, the terrorists, and draw every process out. | ||
| And this is why President Trump's eventually going to go to your solution. | ||
| Rogan, where do people go to find more about your thinking on this and more about your amazing social media platform? | ||
| Thank you, Steve. | ||
| You can find me, DC underscore Drano, on all the major platforms. | ||
| And I will say, a new policy that's kind of given me hope is what Governor DeSantis has been doing in Florida. | ||
| He's proposing, I think they call it the Florida Plan, to deputize JAG lawyers in the National Guard to act as immigration judges, right? | ||
| Like Stephen Miller said, this is not an Article 3 issue. | ||
| This is Article 2. The immigration judges work for President Trump. | ||
| Let's get a lot more immigration judges or whoever it can be and start processing these people and sending them out. | ||
| Right there. | ||
| Put them right at the border. | ||
| Rogan, fantastic. | ||
| Thank you. | ||
| D.C. Drano, amazing. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Thank you, Steve. | |
| Changing the course of American history. | ||
| This shows you the power of your agency, your thinking. | ||
| Put it on social media. | ||
| And we're impossible. | ||
| You guys jumped on this. | ||
| You were forced multipliers. | ||
| Next thing you know, everybody's talking about it, including the President of the United States. | ||
| We've got some other big news taking wins every day. | ||
| Let's go over and get a short clip. | ||
| We're going to bring in Frank Marino. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Hello, everybody. | |
| Councilman-elect Marino, at least for a little while longer, because I'm about to go to City Hall to be sworn in. | ||
| We're on the Staten Island Ferry now, about to head to Manhattan to go to City Hall. | ||
| Of all boats, what boat do we end up on? | ||
| The only boat that's still in service, well, one or only two boats, that's still in service for somebody that I actually knew. | ||
| Guy V. Molinari. | ||
| That's right, we're on the Guy Molinari. | ||
| Hopefully, that's a good omen that I'll be able to win 10 or 11 elections just the way that Guy did. | ||
| In all seriousness, very excited about this. | ||
| I'm with Carmine and Rachel. | ||
| Carmine's right now very fixated upon looking out the window of the ferry. | ||
| Thank you again for the opportunity to serve, and I promise not to let you down. | ||
| I, Frank Morano, do solemnly swear that I will support the Constitution of the United States and the Constitution of the State of New York and that I will faithfully discharge the duties of the Office of Councilmember Councilmember. | ||
| In the New York City Council. | ||
|
unidentified
|
In the New York City Council. | |
| For the 51st Council District. | ||
|
unidentified
|
For the 51st Council District. | |
| In the Borough of Staten Island. | ||
|
unidentified
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In the Borough of Staten Island. | |
| In the County of Richmond. | ||
| In the City of New York. | ||
|
unidentified
|
In the City of New York. | |
| According to the best of my ability. | ||
| According to the best of my ability. | ||
| member Miranda. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Thank you. | |
| Frank, why is this such an important win right now for MAGA? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Huge for a few reasons. | |
| One, because it's in the heart of New York City. | ||
| And it shows that even in New York, people don't like defunding the police. | ||
| People don't like cashless bail. | ||
| People don't like the revolving door of criminals being let out so that they're home in time for dinner. | ||
| It's important because even in New York, people believe in the same things that they do in the rest of the country. | ||
| And it's important in Republican circles because I think Huge for a few reasons. | ||
| I ran on a very populist platform. | ||
| My victory shows that the future of the Republican Party, the future of the conservative movement, is not the Bush-McCain-Romney style of so-called conservatism. | ||
| It's Trumpian-Bannon-style populist conservatism. | ||
| That's what I want to bring to the Republican Party and to the New York City Council. | ||
| And look, we've got another election coming up in 41 days. | ||
| This time it's a Republican primary. | ||
| And if people want to be part of the solution, Frank, Charlie Spearing, one of the best reporters out there, used to work for me at Breitbart's now at the Daily Mail. | ||
| He had an amazing piece that led the Daily Mail's website for half a day, going through polling the Daily Mail had done with one of the top polling firms in the country, showing that actually New York... | ||
| Is actually shifting right on MAGA values? | ||
| And he's basically saying it's teed up for Hochul to be turfed out in the next election. | ||
| Do you think there's any chance that really MAGA types can make a run at more council seats, actually take out maybe the local DA, even the mayor, the governor? | ||
| Is this real? | ||
| Is New York going MAGA? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Absolutely. | |
| I mean, I think it's a long way before Manhattan elects a Republican or a conservative or a MAGA DA, but everything else that you just described is very possible. | ||
| I think there's a real—look, you see what's going on in the mayor's race. | ||
| You see the incumbent Democratic mayor, Eric Adams, who four years ago ran on a platform of being Al Sharpton's best friend. | ||
| Now he went from being the Biden of Brooklyn to the Trump of City Hall. | ||
| He's running on a Trumpian platform. | ||
| Who couldn't bash Trump enough during COVID, he is going out of his way not to alienate Trump or Trump supporters. | ||
| And on a lot of criminal justice issues, he's running a very different campaign from the one that he did when he was governor. | ||
| Now, I don't think these guys have really changed their tune all that much, but I think it's a reflection and a realization on their part that the voters are waking up, that the voters have changed their tune. | ||
| Not only do I think there's a real chance to get Governor Kathy Hochul out next year, I think there's a great chance to pick up more MAGA City Council seats in New York City. | ||
| But I think there's a fighting chance that we could actually see someone like Curtis Lewa win the mayor of New York City this year, which would be a political earthquake, the likes of which we haven't seen since Giuliani won in 93. Wow. | ||
| Frank, as you know, I don't need to tell you, because you know him so well, that this is very close to President Trump's heart. | ||
| We've got about a minute. | ||
| What do you think we need to do? | ||
| As a movement to help our brothers and sisters and our MAGA brothers and sisters in New York, sir? | ||
|
unidentified
|
A couple things. | |
| One, you can go to my website, moranoforcouncil.com, make a contribution, help us out, but also... | ||
| Don't be fooled into labels. | ||
| Don't be fooled because someone says they're a Republican into thinking they believe the same things that you believe in. | ||
| The point that you and others have made, that there are times when somebody that's been a Republican elected official for the last 30, 35 years, they have a lot more in common with the Democratic establishment than they do with Donald Trump and the populist conservative right. | ||
| This is such an exciting time, but it's only an exciting time and it's only a promising time if we wake up and take this party from the D.C. swamp creatures that have done such a miserable job running it in a Bush era. | ||
| The Bush era is dead. | ||
| Let's have the Trump era. | ||
| and let's make this party into a populist party with a big tent that we can all be proud of. | ||
| Frank, social media and website, where do people go? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Moranoforcouncil.com, moranoforcouncil.com, or Frank Morano on Twitter, Frank Morano on Twitter. | |
| here. | ||
| Brother, thank you for coming on. | ||
| Thank you for fighting. | ||
| Fighting on to victory. | ||
| Fantastic. | ||
| Everybody's jacked up. | ||
| Thank you, sir. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Thank you for having me. | |
| Just being on your show really gave me such credibility with conservative and Trumpian circles. | ||
| I can't thank you enough for that. | ||
| I'm going to be in your debt for a long time. | ||
| No, sir. | ||
| Every day, you guys are getting it. | ||
| You're taking the incoming. | ||
| It's really incredible. | ||
| And keep fighting. | ||
|
unidentified
|
And we're going to get Pam Bondi to shut down this Sanctuary City joke that New York City has become and end New York City's Sanctuary City status. | |
| That was my first act since being elected, is to sign on to that letter asking the Attorney General to do just that. | ||
| We're hoping she does. | ||
| Amen. | ||
| Thank you, sir. | ||
| Appreciate you. | ||
| The fight in New York City. | ||
| The fight in Manhattan. | ||
| We've got Jackie Toberoff all the time. | ||
| They're fighters. | ||
| These are MAGA. | ||
| Out there on Long Island and in upstate New York. | ||
| Upstate New York's MAGA country. | ||
| I'm telling you, we're going to take New York. | ||
| You can see the tectonic plate shift that's happening. | ||
| Short commercial break. | ||
| E.J. and Tony with some reality checks about the numbers. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Next. | |
| If you take a look at my bottom lines of budget reconciliation, the first principle, when we're $37 trillion in debt, According to CBO, it would be about $59 to $60 trillion in 2035. | ||
| My first principle would be, let's bend that curve down. | ||
| Let's make sure that whatever we do, we don't increase the deficit. | ||
| But right now, I think we're on track to increase the deficit. | ||
|
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But are they listening to you? | |
| Do you feel like they're potentially going to accommodate you? | ||
| Yeah, what's interesting is they all agree with me. | ||
| Literally, they say, well, I agree with what you're saying, but... | ||
| Well, that ship has sailed. | ||
| To what I reply, we'll call it back to port. | ||
| Because I think that other ship with the big, beautiful bill, I think that's the Titanic. | ||
| I think that's going down because I think I have enough colleagues in the Senate that this has resonated with that are saying, yeah, we've got to return to a reasonable pre-pandemic level spending. | ||
| But I always add this. | ||
| Plus a process to achieve it and maintain it. | ||
| Okay, E.J. and Tony. | ||
| E.J., we had Senator Johnson on this morning. | ||
| He's warning about, hey, we're going to blow... | ||
| First off, he makes the point that you make. | ||
| The debt's not going up because Besson's doing a great job of bailing water out of the boat. | ||
| But as soon as we get the debt ceiling passed, there's going to be another $500 billion on the official debt that gets counted up. | ||
| So we're north of $37 right now. | ||
| He's saying, hey, look, every senator agrees that the glide slope or the path we're on gets us $60 trillion in 10 years, and the country's over. | ||
| What say you, sir? | ||
| Well, Steve, I think that's right. | ||
| And the senator really hit the nail on the head here when he said everybody agrees this is a problem, right? | ||
| You're not going to find anybody who just shrugs their shoulders at this problem and says, oh, no, don't worry about it. | ||
| It's going to be fine. | ||
| No, literally nobody says it's going to be fine. | ||
| Everyone knows we're going over the fiscal cliff. | ||
| But what's everybody's answer? | ||
| Start cutting spending. | ||
| Just don't start with my stuff. | ||
| You can't cut my pet projects. | ||
| You can't cut stuff from my district or my constituents. | ||
| You have to cut everywhere else. | ||
| That is everyone's attitude. | ||
| Then absolutely nothing gets cut. | ||
| And that's how we got to where we are today. | ||
| And I think that's part of the holdup right now with the current tax cut bill, is everybody, both whether it's Democrat or Republican, doesn't matter. | ||
| Almost every member of Congress, there's very few exceptions, are genuinely willing to cut the things that need to be cut. | ||
| And it's becoming not just problematic, it's going to become catastrophic. | ||
| So what then is to be done? | ||
| I mean, he says, and he came on today, that behind closed doors, all of the senators agree we have to go to pre-pandemic. | ||
| We've got to go back to Trump's golden year of 2019. | ||
| One, do you think that's feasible? | ||
| And two, then, why are we not doing the work right now to make that happen? | ||
| Well, it's certainly feasible, Steve. | ||
| I just can't for the life of me understand why the leadership in both the House and the Senate are not making that a reality. | ||
| I mean, my goodness, 95 percent of the spending that you would cut out to get us back to those 2019 levels is all stuff that the Democrats did. | ||
| It's not stuff that the Democrats or that the Republicans voted for. | ||
| You can repeal the entire IRA, for example. | ||
| That would save hundreds of billions of dollars. | ||
| And that's not an exaggeration. | ||
| The only exaggeration was when the Democrats passed the darn thing and they told us that it was going to have a relatively small impact on the budget and they were off by over a trillion dollars. | ||
| So those were the folks that exaggerated. | ||
| You can save a lot of money just by repealing the things that the Democrats passed on their own over the last four years. | ||
| And again, for the life of me, why aren't they doing that? | ||
| I don't know, Steve. | ||
| It is beyond frustrating. | ||
| So Johnson says there's a half a dozen votes up there or more right now that view this thing as the Titanic. | ||
| Give me your assessment of where you think the House stands because it's kind of very convoluted. | ||
| You got people working on pieces of this. | ||
| You had the tax size, ways and means. | ||
| They won't put forward or let anybody see an overall number to see what their projected deficits are. | ||
| But I can tell you, and we've never been wrong in this, it's going to be over $2 trillion this year, or close to it. | ||
| In fiscal year 26, which is the reconciliation, I don't know how they avoid another $2 trillion deficit at least, and that blows through the debt ceiling increase before Election Day in the midterm elections. | ||
| You think my math is that far off? | ||
| No, Steve, you make a lot of really great points, including what you started with, saying that we're already over $500 billion, essentially. | ||
| In the whole, meaning Treasury has been blowing through its cash account at the New York Fed in order to keep the government going with the debt ceiling being in effect this entire year. | ||
| And so as soon as that debt ceiling is lifted, we're immediately going to borrow additional money. | ||
| The debt's immediately going to go up so that we can replenish that missing cash from the Treasury's account. | ||
| So that essentially wipes out, again, $500 billion out of the $4 trillion. | ||
| That's an eighth of it right there. | ||
| And then you're going to have... | ||
| You're going to have that $2 trillion deficit overall. | ||
| You're going to have another $2 trillion, like you mentioned. | ||
| And so this isn't even enough to get us through the president's current term. | ||
| And that doesn't speak to the fact that we need to raise the debt ceiling even further. | ||
| It speaks to the fact that we need to cut spending much more. | ||
| I mean, the spending cuts in this latest bill, they're basically microscopic. | ||
| I'm sorry, but there's just no other way to put it. | ||
| We need to cut much, much more spending. | ||
| In terms of the question that I think you were getting to, what is the coalition here that's going to be willing to pass this? | ||
| Steve, I'm not sure there is one, especially once you consider how many Republicans we have from blue states like New York. | ||
| I know you were just saying New York's going to go red, and I'm not saying it won't eventually, but right now... | ||
| You have a lot of Republicans, even if it's a red district, it's a blue state, it's a high-tax state, and they want that SALT deduction big time. | ||
| They want it so bad. | ||
| And the problem with the current version is they're not interested in having a SALT deduction for low- and middle-income Americans. | ||
| They want a SALT deduction for very high-income earners, which is not what the current bill has. | ||
| The current bill has essentially a phase-out, so it doesn't help the millionaires and billionaires at all. | ||
| That's not what these Republicans want. | ||
| They want a big salt deduction that makes money for the millionaires and billionaires because that's their donor base. | ||
| That's the donor class. | ||
| And that's who those Republicans are interested apparently in helping, not the average American. | ||
| You've been, and you know Scott Bessent well, you knew him before Secretary of Treasurer, you know him well now, the team around him. | ||
| Scott has warned that this is the last chance for a supply-side tax cut. | ||
| One of my concerns, and I've got tons of concerns about Ways and Means, including the fact that they're not doing a snapback right now on the wealthy, which I'd say is going to have to happen at some point because the math just doesn't work. | ||
| But on the supply side part of it, I'm really concerned that none of those supply side cuts are really permanent. | ||
| Am I missing that or is it the stuff that we actually have in there that could help business and help us productivity, create jobs, make capital available? | ||
| They're also temporary. | ||
| So when Trump leaves, they leave, sir. | ||
| Steve, that's exactly right. | ||
| The most pro-growth part of this bill, things like the expensing for business, where you get that tax deduction, that tax write-off, those things, again, the most pro-growth supply-side parts of this bill are the ones that are temporary. | ||
| They're not permanent. | ||
| I mean, it's just absolute nonsense. | ||
| And that happened, again, because they couldn't agree on enough spending cuts to, quote-unquote, pay for this. | ||
| Now, going back to your point on the rich paying more, look, I join you in this. | ||
| I wish we could see more money coming in from the highest income earners in terms of those tax receipts. | ||
| I just think that the way to do it is going to be not increasing marginal tax rates, but getting rid of all these deductions. | ||
| And for crying out loud, start with things like SALT, things which are not at all supply side tax reductions. | ||
| Instead, these are things that are essentially function as loopholes for high income earners. | ||
| In the case of SALT, It's not an exaggeration that very high-income earners in places like Manhattan saw their income tax liability go up by several million dollars, by two or three million dollars, because of the cap on the state and local tax deduction. | ||
| I want to see more of that. | ||
| I want us to get rid of, essentially, all the exemptions, all the deductions in the code. | ||
| Talk to me real quickly. | ||
| You keep saying don't focus on the marginal tax rates for the upper bracket. | ||
| Focus on the deductions. | ||
| What other deductions would you get rid of? | ||
| Steve, literally everything. | ||
| I would get rid of all the deductions, all the exemptions. | ||
| I'm not exaggerating there. | ||
| Even things that a lot of people really love, like the deduction of mortgage interest. | ||
| I would get rid of everything and just reduce all of the tax rates. | ||
| The problem with any kinds of deductions, Steve, in the code is the fact that once you get beyond about a 25% top marginal tax rate, then the wealthy just start using all of these to Yeah. | ||
| effective paid tax rate back down to, again, about 25%. | ||
| And we've seen this pretty much Pretty consistently for the last hundred years, the entire history of the income tax. | ||
| So what you end up doing is you benefit the accountants, you benefit the lawyers, and you benefit, to a certain extent, the wealthy at the expense of everyone else, because everyone else now has to shoulder the tax burden of that lost tax revenue. | ||
| I want to get rid of all of that. | ||
| Just go to a low rate with a broad base. | ||
| You mentioned we got other issues too. | ||
| Talk to me about student debt. | ||
| I just heard we got a bombshell about the student debt. | ||
| Yeah, and Steve, this was actually something that we talked about last year on your show. | ||
| The fact that the Biden administration, not only did they get shot down by the Supreme Court over and over again for their unconstitutional attempts to bail out student loan borrowers, but then the court eventually told them, look, you have to get people repaying again. | ||
| You can't just keep going with these pauses where you're not forgiving loans, but you're also not requiring them to be repaid. | ||
| Essentially, it's a it's a effective forgiveness if you just do that indefinitely. | ||
| So the Biden administration said, OK, fine, we'll have people start repaying their loans. | ||
| But if they don't repay them, wink, wink, then we're not going to report those delinquent accounts to credit bureaus. | ||
| And that's what happened. | ||
| So for the last year of the Biden administration, we had no idea. | ||
| How bad the student loan situation was. | ||
| In other words, how many millions of people had fallen behind. | ||
| Well, now we have a Department of Education who is actually willing to report these numbers honestly. | ||
| And what we found is that it's not a fraction of 1% of student loans that are seriously delinquent. | ||
| In other words, more than three months behind on payments. | ||
| But in fact, the actual number is almost 8%. | ||
| It's over 1,000% higher than we were told it was. | ||
| It's just yet another example of how the Biden administration misled the American people on the economic situation and tried to gaslight everybody to make us think that the situation was so much better than it was when, in fact, it was pretty darn terrible. | ||
| Hold it. | ||
| You're saying that 8% of the total face amount of the student loans are kind of in arrears? | ||
| It's exactly right, Steve. | ||
| And again, the really insane thing here is that this has been the situation for well over a year now, but the data was purposely hidden from credit bureaus. | ||
| So we had no idea what the exact situation was. | ||
| And furthermore, you have literally millions, that's not an exaggeration, millions of people now whose credit ratings have taken a triple-digit hit just this year. | ||
| And they're going to have now a very tough time getting other kinds of credit extended to them, whether it's a mortgage, another student loan, an auto loan, credit cards, you name it. | ||
| So you now have a ton of people whose credit rating has really gotten hammered because they were essentially told by the Biden administration, look, you effectively don't have to pay because there's not going to be any consequences. | ||
| Well, guess what? | ||
| The adults are back in charge, and now there are consequences again. | ||
| EJ, can you hang, just for a short commercial break, I just got to ask you about the future of the big beautiful bills that winds itself through on the economic side. | ||
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| Short commercial break. | ||
| Return to the War Room in just a moment. | ||
|
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|
War Room. | |
| Here's your host, Stephen K. Band. | ||
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| For, I don't know, 5,000 years. | ||
| If you don't think we're going to go through some turbulence, just listen up to E.J. and Tony, because right now this thing's a dogfight. | ||
| So E.J., given your assessment, which kind of dovetails with Ron Johnson and other people, and these are some of the biggest supporters, you're one of the biggest supporters of President Trump, just where do you think this thing stands? | ||
| Let's leave the Senate out for a second. | ||
| It's just in the House, this process of going through these committees, trying to pull this together. | ||
| The tax cut. | ||
| Have you seen an overall model from anybody that's presented that shows you what this looks like in fiscal 26 and beyond, sir? | ||
| Not really in depth, Steve. | ||
| The reason for that is because we just don't have enough of the details yet. | ||
| So, look, let's take a high-level view of it then. | ||
| Let's do the 30,000-foot. | ||
| As the senator was saying, this does not solve the problem, right? | ||
| We are still headed in the wrong direction. | ||
| Now, if our only two choices are between what we currently have and doing absolutely nothing, then what we currently have on the table, at least, would be the better option. | ||
| Because if we do nothing, then you will see some of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions expire. | ||
| We will be able to claw back more of that spending and we will get more Republicans with a spine in Congress. | ||
| But as of right now, if this is the best we can get, it is. | ||
| It is at least better than doing nothing. | ||
| That means that the president was not served well by the Republicans in Congress. | ||
| And if we want to continue supporting President Trump, I think that means you have to turn up the pressure even more on the Republicans in Congress. | ||
| In other words, if these folks weren't willing to actually put a good bill on the president's desk, if they weren't willing to work with the White House, then frankly, they need to go. | ||
| And I don't know if that happens in the primary or in the general next year, but whatever the case, we have to. | ||
| Do I think hold these Republicans accountable if they're not willing to support the president and his agenda, which he was overwhelmingly elected to pursue? | ||
| Do you agree? | ||
| The 10-year bond, I think, is 4.5. | ||
| I think it ended there today. | ||
| I haven't looked at it. | ||
| It started the show, but it was the... | ||
| I keep saying the bond market is going to get a vote here. | ||
| Clearly they are. | ||
| This is not because of President Trump's tariff policy or trade, which the mainstream media try. | ||
| This is about their understanding this bill and they see the spending and they see the inability to raise taxes or cut deductions on the wealthy. | ||
| So you're not going to have additional revenue generation. | ||
| Are you concerned that the further we go down here? | ||
| That even the decisions of President Trump and his ability to enforce and implement his program may be taken away from us as the bond market starts to respond here. | ||
| Well, absolutely, Steve. | ||
| Look, the bond market is not something you want to go toe-to-toe with because as big as the federal government is, even as big as the Treasury is, the bond market ultimately gets the last say. | ||
| We do not want to get into a position where literally nobody is willing to hold U.S. Treasuries and then the Fed just has to print every dime that the government spends. | ||
| I mean, that's Weimar Republic territory. | ||
| That's how you get to hyperinflation scenarios. | ||
| But that is what is eventually... | ||
| To your point, if we don't start heeding the warnings that the bond market is giving us, look, as much as there's been a ton of drama and a ton of market turmoil, and there has been regarding the president's tariff policies, I understand all that. | ||
| But guess what? | ||
| Virtually everything now, after conducting pauses on essentially every country, we're basically right back to where we were before August 2nd. | ||
| Equities are nearly back. | ||
| The bond market is nearly back. | ||
| So the difference that we're seeing right now, and it does track again to your point, it tracks very closely with the progress of discussions on the Hill and how the bill has been evolving. | ||
| The bond market is right now signaling they are not happy with the insufficient level of spending cuts in this bill. | ||
| And it's going to get louder and louder over time. | ||
| And as talented as Scott Besson is, Eventually, there's going to be nothing he can do about the problem because nobody wants to buy what he's selling. | ||
| And it's not because we have a bad salesman who's trying to auction this stuff off. | ||
| It's because the quality of the debt is just going to go down. | ||
| Wow. | ||
| E.J., where do people go on social media to get you? | ||
| Best place to find me is on Twitter. | ||
| The handle there is at Real E.J. Antony. | ||
| Thank you, sir. | ||
| Appreciate you. | ||
| Thank you, Steve. | ||
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