March 24, 2023 - Bannon's War Room
48:36
Participants
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| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
| This is the primal scream of a dying regime. | ||
|
unidentified
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Pray for our enemies, because we're going medieval on these people. | |
| I got a free shot at all these networks lying about the people. | ||
| The people have had a belly full of it. | ||
| I know you don't like hearing that. | ||
| I know you try to do everything in the world to stop that, but you're not going to stop it. | ||
| It's going to happen. | ||
| And where do people like that go to share the big lie? | ||
| MAGA Media. I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a conscience. | ||
|
unidentified
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Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose? | |
| If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved. | ||
|
unidentified
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War Room, here's your host, Stephen K. Bamm. | |
| You know, if Ron DeSantis was doing as well with voters who make less than $50,000 a year as he is with voters making over $50,000 a year, this race would be tied between him and Donald Trump. | ||
| But in fact, what we see is that Ron DeSantis has a major problem among Republicans who make less than $50,000 a year. | ||
| I mean, you can see it on your slide right there. | ||
| He is down by nearly 30 points at Donald Trump among GOP voters who make less than $50,000 a year. | ||
| And that's the reason why he's trailing in the primary. | ||
| So his clip doesn't make all that much sense to me, to be honest with you, Erin. | ||
|
unidentified
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All right, so hold this up for one more second, just as I set up the next question. | |
| So you see that Donald Trump is doing much better, right, with this group under $50,000. | ||
| Is that the same way it was for Trump in the last cycles? | ||
| Yeah, if you look back at 2016, you know, there was this whole idea that Donald Trump ran this populist campaign, right, and he was doing well among, you know, the quote-unquote, his quote, poorly educated people. | ||
| But in fact, there was no real gap on income. | ||
| He did about as well with voters who made less than $50,000 as he did with those making more than $50,000. | ||
| So this year, we've seen this income gap really grow, and this Trump populist campaign really seemed to take off. | ||
|
unidentified
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Okay, which is very interesting, because you're talking about things with Trump taking off, right? | |
| The context everyone's hearing about is all this legal issue, and is that going to take all the bloom off the rose, such as there was any left? | ||
| But you're talking about not just income, but also a coalition that appears to be coming together for Trump. | ||
| Yes. That Democrats would actually like? | ||
| Yeah, it's very interesting. In a Republican primary, the two groups who Donald Trump is doing very well amongst are white voters making under $50,000. | ||
| He has a double-digit advantage with them, as well as non-white voters. | ||
| This is the type of coalition that Democrats would love to have in a general election. | ||
| And what we're in fact seeing is that in this Republican primary, Donald Trump is doing what Democrats would love to have and what they used to have, but Donald Trump is doing it himself. | ||
|
unidentified
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Of course, but I should note, with the GOP primary, that's not a high-minority group. | |
| No, but they still make up nearly 20 % of the GOP electorate. | ||
|
unidentified
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Which is important. Okay, so for people who might say, okay, Harry, but it's important, 20 % significance. | |
| Thanks. We got dead people voting, | ||
| Dropboxes and Dominion. | ||
| And facts are facts, it's not just my opinion. | ||
| The Democrats know how to Trump won and you know it Trump won and you know it The big news will never show it Cause it's true Trump won and you know it While Biden's hiding in the basement Babbling away on Zoom Patriots filled stadiums Trump won and you know it. | ||
| Trump won and you know it. | ||
| The big news will never show it. | ||
| Cause it's true. | ||
| Trump won and you know it. | ||
| The thing about truth, time is always doing its thing. | ||
| We are marching the year of our Lord 2023 and we are kicking off Waco weekend with... | ||
| That's CNN on the Aaron Burnett Show last night. | ||
| Harry Enten, the really pretty strong pollster over there, talking about the populist nationalist coalition that President Trump has put together, absolutely crushing Ron DeSantis. | ||
| He says, you know, see how they equate under $50,000 with poorly educated? | ||
| See that? See that little jive at you? | ||
| No. You are the vanguard of turning this country around, and of course you're part of the Trump movement, MAGA, America First, all of it to set things right in this nation. | ||
| I think it's going to be a great weekend. | ||
| The Waco, the first big kickoff of a rally tomorrow at Waco, Texas. | ||
| 50,000 people. I think the place holds 50,000, or the field holds 50,000. | ||
| We're going to get to all of that. | ||
| We've got a lot going on today as the world's financial system melts down. | ||
| Of course, the Swiss now are pointing the fingers at the Biden regime and the American banking system. | ||
| They're blaming that on what's taken down Credit Suisse. | ||
| And now the Germans, Deutsche Bank, are down earlier today 13 % in one day because of getting a little risky. | ||
| To do credit default swaps and meet what it takes to actually make sure the bank doesn't default on any of its bonds. | ||
| Kind of technical where you get that. | ||
| Stephanie Pomboy is going to join us. | ||
| Dave Bratt, Steve Cortez. | ||
| We're getting a lot to the economy, inflation, all of it today, plus politics. | ||
| We want to start. We've got America's mayor, the greatest mayor in the history of America's greatest city. | ||
| That would be Mayor Rudy Giuliani. | ||
| Rudy, here's the thing. | ||
| We don't spend a second on this show except when we get Mike Davis on and Boris for quick hits on all this madness with all these different things they're trying to run on Trump because it's quite simple. | ||
| They understand they can't beat him at the ballot box. | ||
| So they had the CCP virus. | ||
| They can pull all the games in 2020 to stop President Trump. | ||
| They're not going to have that this time. | ||
| They got to come something else. | ||
| Hey, they think a prison may stop him. | ||
| Impossible. He's not stoppable. | ||
| He's going to win the primary in a blowout. | ||
| He'll win the general in a blowout. | ||
| He's going to return to be president of the United States. | ||
| But Rudy, give me your assessment when you see CNN talking about this populace. | ||
| You were with us in 16. | ||
| You rode shotgun the entire time. | ||
| You saw it happening. In fact, you and I used to talk on the plane all the time about it. | ||
| You saw something different coming together. | ||
| Working class people, Democrats, independents, and of course, Trump Republicans coming together. | ||
| What do you think of our coalition this time, sir? | ||
| Oh, well, first of all, it's the same coalition except on steroids. | ||
| And I saw it, you know, I was a sort of office advisor for about five or six months. | ||
| And then I went out on the road full time with him. | ||
| I think it was in June. We go to a place in Ohio, first rally I had been to. | ||
| We're pulling up to the rally. | ||
| It's about 94 degrees out of the very warm day, and there are about 10,000 people outside. | ||
| We're going for miles, and there are people waiting to get in. | ||
| I said, Donald, because I could call him that then, thinking I'm the experienced campaigner, right? | ||
| Donald, we should wait a little, let these people get in. | ||
| Oh, he said, Mayor, no, no, no. | ||
| There are 20,000 people inside. | ||
| I said, this is June. | ||
| Like, five months to go to the election, and you're drawing 20, 30, 40,000 people. | ||
| I said, I don't know. You're going to win. | ||
| You're going to win. I never saw enthusiasm like this in a presidential campaign. | ||
| And I've been watching campaigns going back to Kennedy. | ||
| Ronald Reagan didn't draw this, and he was my hero. | ||
| He had, from the very beginning, a natural appeal. | ||
| We used to call it the common man, you know? | ||
| Even a great piece of music about that. | ||
| He has that natural feel. | ||
| It is strange. He's a billionaire, a New Yorker, should be an elitist. | ||
| But, you know, he's sort of a reaction against that, kind of like I am. | ||
| I mean, I hated that New York elite cocktail party. | ||
| You've got to repeat what they say. | ||
| And they all think that this whole thing about uneducated people, maybe they're smarter because they haven't been brainwashed by the Marxists. | ||
| I mean, you might be better off if you're uneducated, and you might have a better ability to have common sense, because American schools, not all, but a good percentage of them, have been brainwashing factories, you know, run by the UFT, the Education Association, the professors, brainwashing you into hating America, hating what we stand for, hating our way of life, hating God. | ||
| You put that all together, you got a kind of evil country. | ||
| Rudy, Biden's polling, of course, they buried the lead. | ||
| Headline was Biden hits close to new low on polling. | ||
| And you had to go down 10 paragraphs. | ||
| This is in the Associated Press. | ||
| I have it up on Getter right now. | ||
| Is it 38 percent? | ||
| You have the banking system in this country is completely imploding. | ||
| The only thing keeping the banking system up is this audience because they're underwriting these bailouts. | ||
| Give me your assessment of where you've seen a lot of U.S. presidents. | ||
| What's your assessment right now of Joe Biden? | ||
| essentially halfway through the horse race of his first and only term, sir. | ||
| Well, you know, I heard Newt last night, and I've talked to him about it, and I think we both agree. | ||
| The real question is, does he have a real breakdown before we get to the finish line? | ||
| Quite a possibility if you study the disease. | ||
| It's a progressive disease, which is like progressive democratic. | ||
| It means you deteriorate, and it's inevitable. | ||
| There can be a slight hold on it, and we see that sometimes. | ||
| We see him sometimes a little better than others. | ||
| The other day, he didn't know who his wife was. | ||
| They cover up his constant, constant misuse of the language, forgetting, stumbling. | ||
| If you go on Australian television, they sum it up everything. | ||
| You pick up things that you haven't seen on American television. | ||
| But he's falling apart. He's literally falling apart. | ||
| Will he make it to the finish line? | ||
| By that I mean, will he be able to continue to talk next year at this time? | ||
| I don't know. He has a serious case of dementia. | ||
| We can't escape it. People avoid it either because they don't care or they're afraid of Kamala Harris. | ||
| The world is falling apart. | ||
| Everything he does is falling apart. | ||
| But Rudy, is the dementia, you know, Shakespeare tells us was the Mark Anthony, the evil that men do live on long past their lives. | ||
| The good they do is interred with their bones. | ||
| Isn't it the Biden regime? | ||
| It's not Joe Biden. I would actually argue he's not really in charge anyway and has not been in charge from day one, sir. | ||
| But then they would have to come up with a running mate. | ||
| I mean, if he does have an episode... | ||
| Which wouldn't be surprising, in which he can't function, then they're going to have to come up with somebody else to run. | ||
| So I wouldn't count that out. | ||
| I don't say that that's necessarily true, but there's just a good a chance of that if he makes it to the finish line. | ||
| And I don't see when the American people confront Joe Biden that they could possibly re-elect him. | ||
| I mean, they were fooled once because they hid the hard drive. | ||
| Those people say by large numbers they'd vote against him. | ||
| I think his disapproval rating is higher than reflected in the polls, but I think there's still people who feel sorry for him. | ||
| Have you ever seen a situation where the receipts were given that the Chinese Communist Party actually sent cash to these people via wire transfer and the mainstream media refuses to focus on what Comer's finding at the House Oversight Committee, sir? It's a complete loss of any sense of patriotism on the part of the media. | ||
| I'm not sure they know they're Americans. | ||
| When you get to the Chinese communists paying off the family of the current president of the United States, I don't even want to tell you what we're talking about. | ||
| I just asked people to consider if this were true with Kennedy or Reagan and they were paid money by the Soviet Union. | ||
| I mean, suppose we found out that the Kennedy family got 13, 14 million from Soviet communists or Reagan did. | ||
| We put him out of office in a second and probably put him in jail. | ||
| I mean, it comes pretty close to treason, taking money from our sworn enemy who wants to overtake us, now has a bigger navy, wants to have a bigger army. | ||
| And then he does things that irrationally favor them. | ||
| Like closing down the Bagram Air Base 400 miles from China. | ||
| I mean, China would have to have bribed somebody to have that happen. | ||
| Oh, gee, did they? | ||
| I mean, how many coincidences do you want me to accept between him favoring China irrationally and his family getting, I believe it's about 40 million? | ||
| from the Red Chinese, as I do my calculations. | ||
| I had Miranda on my show yesterday, and together we tried to add up what we have, and we come north at 31 minutes. | ||
| 31. Rudy, can you hang on one second? | ||
| We're going to take a short break. We have Dave Brat with us, Stephanie Pomboy, the Macro Maven, is going to join us. | ||
| We're going to talk about TikTok. | ||
| Of course, Biden's looked the other way on that. | ||
| But most importantly, we have the star of a major new film from a great director, Rudy Giuliani. | ||
|
unidentified
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The star of the movie is Gotham is Rise and Fall. | |
| It's Fall and Rise in a moment. | ||
|
unidentified
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Here's your host, Stephen K. Babb. | |
| Thanks for watching. | ||
| One person put up his hand and said, you know, I'm having trouble with this warning that I was given by my travel agent about going to New York. | ||
| Can you interpret this for me? | ||
| And it was a list of ten things. | ||
| To do or not do to avoid being the victim of crime in New York. | ||
| I said to myself, who would go to a city where you have to be given 10 warnings, you won't get killed? | ||
|
unidentified
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Yo. | |
| Yo. | ||
| Okay, welcome back. You're in the War Room. | ||
| That is Aaron Copeland's Fanfare for the Common Man, as mentioned by America's Mayor Rudy Giuliani. | ||
| Rudy, Matthew Taylor is an extraordinary young filmmaker. | ||
| Gotham, The Fall and Rise of New York. | ||
| Tell us about the film. You're the big star of it, so tell us about it. | ||
| Many, many cities that are now in desperation Record murder rates in Philadelphia and St. | ||
| Louis and virtually all the Soros purchase district attorney Democrat cities. | ||
| There's a sense of no hope. | ||
| It has to be this way. | ||
| This movie shows that properly motivated human beings are the answer. | ||
| Okay, I let it, but gosh, it'll show you I had an awful lot of help from from the so-called uneducated people in particular, I mean, the regular citizens of New York, who just rose up after 50 years of democratic corruption and democratic crimes and riots and 2,200 murders a year and said, Enough! We're not that stupid. | ||
| We're not going to let you kill our kids. | ||
| And they took a chance on me. | ||
| I had never been in public office. | ||
| I had run once and lost narrowly by a percent. | ||
| I did have a record as a very, very effective United States Attorney in New York. | ||
| I had that advantage. | ||
| I was the first Republican elected in 25 years and only the third elected in the 20th century. | ||
| It wasn't easy to win. | ||
| Every one of my friends told me I was going to lose, including my good friends who cared about me. | ||
| They worked for me and they helped me get elected ultimately. | ||
| But they were convinced I was good. | ||
| I spent my entire campaign convincing my campaign staff that I had a chance. | ||
| And when we won, I took on an attitude, which I got from a gentleman. | ||
| I don't know if you knew him, Arnie Burns. | ||
| He was the deputy attorney general in the second part. | ||
| And Arnie said to me, govern like you're a one-term mayor. | ||
| And it might just work. | ||
| Don't worry about getting reelected. | ||
| It was historic enough, you got elected. | ||
| Just do everything that hasn't been done that you can think of. | ||
| Because if you lose, you can keep pointing back to it, and we can keep on that agenda. | ||
| And we wouldn't have given it. | ||
|
unidentified
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And if you win, you'll do a miracle. | |
| And after a year and a half in office, I was at about 38 percent approval. | ||
| And I won by 20 percent. | ||
| I went on a landslide. I mean, the last real Republican to get a vote like that in New York. | ||
|
unidentified
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So it worked. | |
| I can simplify it very simply. | ||
| I did all the things that a common sense conservative would do. | ||
| Hannity, when I was running for president and being attacked as being too moderate a Republican, used to say, you know, I lived here when he was the mayor. | ||
| He's the most conservative guy running for president. | ||
| Any of these people on the ticket, including McCain and Romney and maybe not Mike Huckabee. | ||
| But people didn't know that. | ||
| I mean, I did Workfare, the most successful Workfare program ever. | ||
| I got 500,000 people off welfare. | ||
| I got jobs for 400,000 of them. | ||
| People don't remember that. | ||
| I mean, I instituted conservative programs that Clinton later borrowed. | ||
| Now, we did Workfare before Clinton, two years before. | ||
| And I worked with Clinton when he decided, when Doug Morris had decided. | ||
| I work with him on welfare reform. | ||
| I work with Biden and Schumer on the crime bill. | ||
| So what's happened today? | ||
| Give me two minutes on where the city is today. | ||
| Bragg's out of control. Letitia James is out of control. | ||
| You've got a mayor. One moment's a devout Christian, the other moment's out of control. | ||
| What happened? This film should be the fall, rise and fall of New York City, the greatest city in the world, because it's a worse mess today, I think, than even when you took over, sir. | ||
| In some ways, yes. In some ways, no. | ||
| I mean, in crime, for example, the crimes are bolder. | ||
| There are less of them, but they're bolder, because they're empowered by the Democrats. | ||
| And the city is much more now like the rest of the Democrat cities throughout the country. | ||
| It used to be New York was the crime capital of America. | ||
| Where now, you know, you've got to argue, is Philadelphia more dangerous? | ||
| Chicago is definitely more dangerous. | ||
| Los Angeles and San Francisco are even worse off. | ||
| So it used to be that New York City was the poster boy for crime and everything else. | ||
| It's like 70 American cities, almost all of whom are Democrats. | ||
| The downfall is the Marxist Democrat I always said when I ran and when I was studying it and lecturing on it, this is a question of policies. | ||
| Human beings create the crime problems, and human beings can solve the crime problems. | ||
| The policies in place by Democrat mayors and Soros DAs encourage crime. | ||
| They include such things as, I can tell you there are 7,000 or more people on the street now in New York who are preying on people that wouldn't be there if I were the mayor or if Bloomberg and Ray Kelly were in office. | ||
| They'd be in jail right now. | ||
| Which means they wouldn't be raping people, beating people, throwing them up. | ||
| I think I have our candidate for the next cycle against Adams. | ||
| I think Mayor Rudy Giuliani's got to return. | ||
| Like, Cincinnati's from the plow to save his beloved New York City. | ||
| The Gotham's over. Rudy, you're putting out content all day long. | ||
| You've got a show with Dr. | ||
| Ryan on Sunday mornings. How do people get to your radio show? | ||
| How do they get to the podcast? | ||
| How do they get to all your content, and particularly your Sunday show? | ||
| The best way to get to all my content is RudyGiulianiCS.com, including my now doing really well live cast at 8 o'clock at night. | ||
| I mean, we do over a minimum of 100,000 every night and get calls from all over. | ||
| So you go to RudyGiulianiCS.com, you can get all of it. | ||
| And also on radio, on wabcradio.com, and that's on three to four every day, and with Dr. | ||
| Ryan on Sunday between 10 and 11. | ||
| So it's pretty easy to find it. | ||
| Where do people get the livecast? | ||
| Where is that on your site? | ||
| Where do they go? You can go on Getter, Facebook, Twitter gets the most, Getter gets the second most, YouTube Live. | ||
| We're all over the place. | ||
| On Twitter alone, we go up to 100,000. | ||
| On Getter, we're going crazy. | ||
| People love to call in. | ||
| Fantastic competition. Murdoch has blinked and Sean Hannity is going to have Trump on for an hour on Monday. | ||
| The Murdoch slash DeSantis News Network finally understands the math that DeSantis is not going to win the primary. | ||
| So now the Murdochs in their own classy fashion are going to start putting President Trump on. | ||
| Rudy, fantastic. I got to talk. | ||
| I've got to talk to you offline because we have to talk about your upcoming campaign against Eric Adams. | ||
| New York needs you more than ever now, sir. | ||
| Let's take care of 24, my friend. | ||
| You and I remember a heartache in 20, huh? | ||
| We don't want to live through that again, right? | ||
| Not going to do that again, Rudy. | ||
| He won in 20. | ||
| He didn't close, though. | ||
| You've got to close the deal. We're going to both win and close, right, in 2024. | ||
| You've got to always be closing. | ||
| The country's gone. Thank you so much, brother. | ||
| The country's gone. | ||
| That's why Trump's going to win, and Trump's going to be in the White House. | ||
| As sure as the turning of the earth... | ||
| You can tell they're trying to throw up everything in the world to stop it, Rudy, but it's not going to work. | ||
| Let me just make the point and talk about it next week and the week after. | ||
| The next two cases coming up, just as bad if not worse, legally and factually. | ||
| They love to say, well, the next cases might be stronger. | ||
| Like heck they are. They're just as bad. | ||
| It's all a joke. | ||
| It's all a joke. It's a joke. | ||
| They only can stop him. | ||
| They only think they can stop him legally. | ||
| That can't stop him. It only makes him stronger. | ||
| His numbers are going up. He's uniting the Republican Party. | ||
| They don't understand. | ||
| They just called on CNN the under $50,000 people uneducated. | ||
| Okay? Uneducated. | ||
| That's how they think of you. They think you're nothing but trash and scum. | ||
| You're uneducated. Oh, the $50,000. | ||
| Yeah, he got the uneducated voters. | ||
| Well, I beg to differ. | ||
| This show is the most complicated show in all media in the world, okay? | ||
| All media in the world, and our audience is made up of people that make under $50,000 a year. | ||
| So suck on that, mainstream media. | ||
| Mayor Giuliani, honored to have you on here. | ||
| Honored to have you on here, sir. | ||
| As always, Mayor Giuliani. | ||
| Okay, we're going to take a short break. | ||
| We've got Dave Brat. | ||
| He's got some strong opinions about what's going on with the banking system, the bailouts, all of it. | ||
| We're also going to have Stephanie Pomboy on the Macro Maven. | ||
| Then Steve Cortez, Tiffany Justice. | ||
| We're going to talk about TikTok. | ||
| We've got to get to that. | ||
| The CCP's Weapon they have here in the United States of America. | ||
| They got lots of weapons. They got lots of weapons. | ||
| We're going to talk about it all. Short commercial break. | ||
| Back in the warm in just a moment. | ||
|
unidentified
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It's all started. | |
| Everything's begun. | ||
| And you are over. | ||
| Because we're taking down the CCP. To explain what you think or what you make of these recent bank failures, is it an indication of a larger problem? | ||
| Mika, it's impossible to tell. | ||
| That's the problem itself. | ||
| Banking depends upon confidence. | ||
| People have to know and feel that the banking system is sound. | ||
| And when you have a bunch of bank failures or near failures, When you have uncertainty as to whether depositors are even going to be insured at certain banks and smaller banks, when you have, you know, the crypto meltdown that we have had, FTX, I mean, all of these and Credit Suisse, all of these unsettle investors. | ||
| They worry people who are depositors. | ||
| They mean that more and more money is moving to the very big banks that are too big to fail. | ||
| But it all is nerve-wracking, and I think that the economy already, when interest rates... | ||
| Remember, the reason we show Morning Mika all the time, that's the railhead for conventional thinking, and they're scrambling now. | ||
| Misdirection plays on what the problem is. | ||
| The problem is the massive spending, Biden's massive spending, the $5, $6, $7, $8 trillion of incremental massive spending led to the dumpster fire of inflation, as we warned back in early 2021, starting with the American Recovery Act. | ||
| So the Biden spending led to the Biden inflation, led to the Biden bonds. | ||
| The government securities issued, people bought them at low interest rates under the Trump administration, or shortly thereafter, These things as interest rates increased to try to choke down inflation, the bonds collapsed, so the Biden bonds then blew a hole into the Biden banks, and that's the problem you have. | ||
| We're honored to have Stephanie Pomboy. | ||
| On today from MacroMavens. | ||
| Stephanie, first off, to introduce yourself to the audience, talk about macro for a second. | ||
| You've spent your life in this area, and now more than ever, it's very important. | ||
| Our audience is made up of activists and common citizens, not just in the United States, but the world. | ||
| It's more important than ever, as we keep telling people, you have to understand the system. | ||
| Give us the situation report. | ||
| Where do we stand today, and why is understanding macroeconomics so important for the average citizen, ma'am? | ||
|
unidentified
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Well, the key and what's really galling about this is that we've lived through decades really, Steve, of really reckless monetary policy and in the recent years, reckless fiscal policy on top of that. | |
| And the ultimate price for that is always paid by Main Street. | ||
| You know, Wall Street enjoys it when the Fed prints a ton of money and financial assets go to the sky. | ||
| But when the bill comes due, it always ends up falling back in terms of a massive hit to the economy, which drives up the unemployment rate. | ||
| And then, of course, the topic that I'm really concerned about today is the blowback to pensions. | ||
| Especially public pensions, you know, corporate pensions, they switched, you know, from the defined benefit to defined contribution years ago. | ||
| But these public pensions are really severely underfunded now and we're staring down the barrel of, in addition to a banking crisis, just a broad credit bust, sort of similar to what we lived through after the housing bubble bust in 2007-8. | ||
| That's going to have a really big impact on these pensions that, again, are already underfunded. | ||
| I think the math there is just going to be mind-boggling. | ||
| While everyone on Wall Street is focused on the banking sector and what's going to happen to the stock market and which bonds to buy and sell, For Main Street, it's really important to be aware of the repercussions of these policy mistakes that have been built up, again, for decades, and how that can affect their retirement savings. | ||
| As we go into this bubble bursting, which is essentially what we're seeing now, that people really think about how much money they have set aside for saving. | ||
| Where is that money? | ||
| How is it saved? Are they taking unnecessary risks with those assets? | ||
| Where is a safe place to be? | ||
| And, you know, to the extent that right now you feel like everything's good and you're enjoying dinners out and such, you might want to start thinking about the prospect that the economy is going to head into a material recession. | ||
| We're going to go through a 2008-09 type scenario. | ||
| And, you know, if you know that ahead of time, how would you prepare your household for For that eventuality and the prospect that maybe someone in the household becomes unemployed, what are you going to do? | ||
| I hate to be such a negative Nancy, but I think it's better to be prepared. | ||
| You're not. You're not. | ||
| One of the things we do on this show is to look like Wellington trained his officers. | ||
| You've got to look over the other side of the hill and tell me what's going to go on. | ||
| We like being months, if not years, ahead of things. | ||
| I want to go back. You've got – the Swiss today are blaming the Americans for the implosion of Credit Suisse. | ||
| It says the American banking system brought it down. | ||
| Deutsche Bank at one time was down 13 percent because the credit default swaps – the price of guaranteeing they can pay their bills is going up. | ||
| The whole world – and, of course, this audience is the one bailing them out through the FDIC insurance, all that. | ||
| Right, yep. We had a clip from Barry Sternlick yesterday talking about the commercial. | ||
| The next shoe to drop, he says, is the commercial real estate market. | ||
| That's going to be as big a bomb as the thing. | ||
| But you're saying, I want to go back through, because I want people to understand this. | ||
| Talk to me about, a person like you doesn't throw the term around reckless a lot. | ||
| On Wall Street, that's like a four-letter word. | ||
| When you say reckless, tie it to the public pensions. | ||
| Are you saying that there's another That's going to go off and they're going to be forced to do public bailouts again of public pensions. | ||
| Is that what you're warning us about, ma'am? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Well, it's either that or that we go through what France is going through right now where people are protesting a higher retirement age because the math doesn't work. | |
| But getting back to the broader overview here, Again, I think what happened in terms of reckless policy, you know, from a very broad brush standpoint for your audience, we basically lived basically since Alan Greenspan, if people remember that name back in the mid 80s, since he became chairman of the Federal Reserve. | ||
| Every time the economy or the stock market stubs its toe, the Fed immediately rushes in with the fire hoses and they print money and try to flood the system with money to try to numb the pain of that. | ||
| So that brought us the dot-com bubble, if you'll remember that, in the late 90s, early 2000s. | ||
| And when that bubble burst, the Fed came in and they flooded the system with liquidity. | ||
| And eventually that liquidity all went into the residential housing market. | ||
| And people, you know, nannies were buying and flipping homes and quitting their jobs. | ||
| And, you know, everyone was it was just free money until that bubble burst. | ||
| And then their reaction to that was to flood the system with more money. | ||
| And here we are today. | ||
| And essentially what we have is a bubble in everything. | ||
| You know, Barry Stern looks right. | ||
| We have a bubble in commercial real estate in part that the problem is amplified by this work from home post-COVID. But that whole thing was pretty frothy to begin with. | ||
| You have real issues in the corporate credit market. | ||
| You have companies, you know, think about these companies like WeWork, for example, that Basically, people shove money at them. | ||
| And they had, really, at the end of the day, no viable business model. | ||
| So it was just an opportunity to find some kind of return somewhere in an environment where, again, because the Fed was pumping all this liquidity and they do that by depressing interest rates, there was nowhere to get any return. | ||
| If you're trying to save money for retirement, I don't have to tell your audience this, For the last decade, you know, you basically got nothing in the bank. | ||
| So what are your options? | ||
| Your options are to kind of take a little more risk than you might otherwise take to try to get some return on your money. | ||
| And the people who ultimately had to take the most risk are the pensions, because the pensions are required to satisfy an annual return target. | ||
| And those return targets are, you know, in A totally different universe from the reality on the ground. | ||
| So they've just recently come down to 7.5%, 8 % annual returns. | ||
| Well, I don't need to tell you. | ||
| If you look across the landscape, where are you getting an 8 % return? | ||
| You're sure as hell not getting it in a bank account. | ||
| You're not getting it in a T-bill. | ||
| You're not even getting it in a long-dated Treasury bond. | ||
| So you have to go out, let's say you buy an investment grade bond. | ||
| Well, you're only getting two and a half, three percent. | ||
| What if you buy a junk bond? | ||
| Before the Fed started raising rates, you were getting four percent for investing in a company whose prospects of ever paying you back were de minimis. | ||
| So now you have these pensions that had to load up on all of these really high risk assets in a desperate attempt To meet an 8 % return target that, you know, was unmeetable in a 0 % risk-free world. | ||
| And so they are the ones who ultimately are going to be exposed to have bought all of this stuff, whether it's, you know, whether their exposure to commercial real estate that's now going bust, whether it's their exposure to the corporate bonds, those WeWork type zombie companies going bust, whether it's Asset-backed claims to consumers who are no longer able to pay off their auto loans or the buy-now-pay-later companies. | ||
| Again, given the speed and magnitude of these interest rate hikes that are now wrecking havoc with the banking system, That's going to play out everywhere in every sector. | ||
| It's not going to be confined to the banking system. | ||
| It's going to hit commercial real estate. | ||
| It's going to hit households in terms of credit card bills and auto loans. | ||
| It's going to hit municipals. | ||
| It's going to hit corporate bonds. | ||
| And all of that, the one party that owns all of those assets are the pensions because they had to buy the riskiest of risk in order to meet these otherworldly return targets. | ||
| This is one of the things that the crisis in England with the Prime Minister last year in the Bank of England situation, he found these pension funds had all kind of hanky derivatives in there to juice their earnings. | ||
| I want to get back to the debt ceiling because our theory of the case is that it was the massive over-the-top spending When we had aggregate demand back up, it was like the worst of a Greenspan put, is what you described, that we lived through for 30 years. | ||
| What about this debt ceiling? | ||
| How important is this to take a hard line? | ||
| Biden just, in your face, gave a $6.8 trillion budget last week that would have at least a trillion and a half dollars that the Fed would have to step in. | ||
| What is your theory of the case right now on the debt ceiling in the negotiations, ma'am? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Well, I think you're really right to flag the fiscal policy and the reckless fiscal policy that we saw after the crisis of the COVID had ended. | |
| We didn't need, you know, the extra trillions that they pumped in in the last two years. | ||
| And so that is really what forced the Fed's hand to raise rates because inflation got out of control. | ||
| I mean, it's no surprise if you send money to people's mailboxes, they're going to spend it and you're going to get inflation. | ||
| So I think it is really important to hold the line. | ||
| But then again, this is a game of chicken because no one wants To see the government default on the debt, although we do silently default on the debt by printing the money and paying people back in worthless currency anyway. | ||
| But that's a story for another day. | ||
| We're not supposed to talk about that. | ||
| But, you know, I think it would be great if we could persuade the administration as to how important it is to stop with this reckless spending that's gotten us into the situation in the first place. | ||
| Where now, you know, we've got banks teetering on the brink. | ||
| And the policy response to that has been anything but confidence inspiring. | ||
| So this has the potential to really snowball. | ||
| And frankly, they're just making the Fed's job harder. | ||
| We saw this week they actually raised rates another 25 basis points in the face of this bubble bursting and real issues with the banking system. | ||
| And I think they did so because they want to to crush this inflation that was created by the administration's wanton spending. | ||
| So I agree with you, Steve. | ||
| I mean, I think it's crucial. | ||
| And, you know, I hope that the Republicans will hold the line and not blink. | ||
| Stephanie, just hang on. If you can hang on one second, we'll just hold you through the break. | ||
| By the way, you just gave the theory that our own Dave Brat has been the rolling default. | ||
| Because it is a default. | ||
| You're just printing more money to cover it up. | ||
| Short break, Stephanie, Pomboy, we've got Dave, Brat, all of it talking macro in your life. | ||
| Next in the War Room. | ||
|
unidentified
|
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| Join the marketplace of ideas. | ||
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| Download now. and the printing process that allows them to spend. | ||
| You can still have a central bank, like Peter said, with a monetary rule following John Taylor and the smartest guys that have ever lived. | ||
| This is nothing radical, and we survived quite nicely without them, without inflation, and lower inflation, by the way, before the Fed. | ||
| That's issue number one. Issue number two is the job of the Congress is to write law. | ||
| Right now, the Federal Reserve is operating under two mandates, and they're just making stuff up. | ||
| They're giving stuff to the rich, and they're not giving the same stuff to the poor. | ||
| It's an insult to our intelligence in saying that we can do pronoun studies, and that might help unemployment. | ||
| If that's allowed under the law in their mandate, Then the law is meaningless, and the Congress needs to get on this, and they need to rewrite the Fed mandate for something that will actually help the American people. | ||
| Wow. Okay, maybe the best 30 seconds ever in the history of the war room. | ||
| That was Dave Brat a week ago going off. | ||
| Stephanie, they made a decision yesterday on raising the rates. | ||
| They didn't raise it enough. | ||
| To go after inflation, they're gonna let the common man, the unwashed masses, bear the burden of the unfair regressive tax of inflation because they're now panicked that they bring down the banking system. | ||
| Is that where the Federal Reserve is right now? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Is that the jam they're in? Well, honestly, I think that the inflation... | |
| The beast is dead. | ||
| It's just going to take a while for it to show up in the numbers. | ||
| By that, I don't mean to say that prices aren't insanely high. | ||
| Inflation is the rate of change in those prices. | ||
| I think, mercifully, we've probably seen the peak and that prices are going to come down. | ||
| The bad news is the catalyst for those prices coming down is going to be this bubble bursting and the financial fallout that results from that. | ||
| And the economic fallout in terms of higher unemployment via massive corporate layoffs, you know, the companies are going to get walloped in terms of their earnings. | ||
| And the first thing they're going to cut is headcounts. | ||
| So Main Street is going to pay for this ultimately that way. | ||
| But I think that Powell's move was really just to prove his Volcker chops more than anything. | ||
| And also, I think, to not create a sense of panic about the banking crisis, which, frankly, they've done a pretty bad job watching Yellen. | ||
| Testifying on whether they are or are not going to do a blanket deposit coverage is anything but confidence inspiring. | ||
| So their efforts to try to calm the waters have actually done exactly the opposite. | ||
| So I think Powell was kind of forced to raise because if he didn't, everyone would have said, holy crap, you know, what do they see? | ||
| They know this is really we're teetering on the knife edge. | ||
| But so much of this can be cured with quality fiscal policy. | ||
| I mean, I've kind of given up on the Fed. | ||
| They get everything wrong. | ||
| They're like monetary magoos. | ||
| You know, they inflate bubbles that are invisible only to them and then they burst them and they're shocked when all the fallout rains down on the economy only to then inflate a new bubble. | ||
| But on the fiscal front, I mean, I will say it's so easy. | ||
| Look at what pro-growth policy did in four years under the Trump administration. | ||
| I mean, we were headed into recession. | ||
| I was forecasting a recession in 2016. | ||
| And that turned around, you know, on a dime with pro-growth fiscal policy, tax cuts, and the deregulation, which is so crucial. | ||
| So, I mean... | ||
| If we could get some adults in the room, we might actually be able to avert some of the horrible stuff that I'm talking about. | ||
| But right now, it does not look good. | ||
| Stephanie, how do people, you're new to the audience, obviously the result, what we're hearing already in the chat rooms, you're on fire. | ||
| How do people get to you, your writings, social media, all of it? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Thanks. Well, I have a firm called Macromavens, and you can find me, you know, www.macromavens.com. | |
| I am on Twitter, although I don't post that much because Twitter is a cesspool, but that's at spomboy, P-O-M-B-O-Y, spomboy. | ||
| So you can follow me there. | ||
| And hopefully I'll be invited back so we can continue this conversation. | ||
| There's no doubt about the audience. | ||
|
unidentified
|
How about pitching in the warm room? No, no pitching. | |
| Dave Brad was pitching her between breaks. | ||
| Stephanie, thank you so much. | ||
| Honored to have you on here. | ||
| Thank you. Thank you. Stephanie Pomboy, let's make sure we pile into her site right now. | ||
| Everybody go over and check it out. Brat, by the way, and I'm not kidding, I think it was the best 30 or 40 second hit we've ever had as you summed it up. | ||
| Given where Stephanie Pomboy, who's the macro maven, tells us where we are, we're going to have Russ vote on tonight at 6.00. | ||
| Give me your sense of where we are in stopping. | ||
| The spending's the railhead of it, brother. | ||
| Give me two minutes on that. Are the Republicans going to put up a fight, or are they just going to roll over? | ||
| Yeah, I think they're going to roll over, and if you'll notice, Pomboy hit out of the park, and everything she mentioned, everything on the nightly news all has to do with the financialization of our economy, and it never has to do with the real economy. | ||
| All the help comes in to save banking from the bubbles that Pomboy mentioned going way back to the TETCOM and then the 08 and then now and then they keep printing money. | ||
| And then she said, you know, they're raising the rate a little bit to firm up their chops. | ||
| But they also added $1.5 trillion to liquidity last week, you know, short-term loans. | ||
| And they'll, you know, they'll say, well, that's not permanent. | ||
| But they never stopped doing it, right? | ||
| So other markets would be crashing. | ||
| And so there's no attention to the real economy. | ||
| That's what we focus on. | ||
| And this week we saw a real blow. | ||
| I have one chart. I kind of want to if they got it in Denver. | ||
| Yeah. We have a 90 second break. | ||
| We've got you. Cortez is going to join us. | ||
| We're going to talk about we're going to East Palestine next week. | ||
| John Frederick is going to be here for a quick minute. | ||
| We've got the Tiffany Justice hot off of her testimony yesterday in the house. | ||
| We'll join us on the fight for parental rights and to make sure we sort out these libraries. | ||
| All of it. Short commercial break. | ||
| 90 seconds. Just strap in, grab a cup of coffee, and we'll be back momentarily. |
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