Oct. 4, 2022 - Bannon's War Room
48:53
Participants
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| Speaker | Time | Text |
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unidentified
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Yesterday I wanted to tell them. | |
| I didn't get to say it. | ||
| There were more buyers than sellers. | ||
| Now that we got that out of the way, you do have the VIX below 30 today for the first time in more than a week. | ||
| Look, I felt that yesterday was the most disbelieved, disbelieved rally in the history of, I mean, I don't know, I mean, everyone I talked to said, look, it's this one off, it's over. | ||
| Now, the experience is, is that if this market does not collapse by 11 o'clock, this is a brand new kind of recipe for a rally. | ||
| With less than 40 days to go before the midterm elections, a new survey is painting a dangerous picture of the future of American democracy. | ||
| A recent poll conducted by Yahoo News and YouGov shows less than half of Americans, 46%, believe candidates should commit in advance to accepting the results. | ||
| of this year's midterm elections. | ||
|
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55% say that once all the votes are counted, the candidate with the fewer votes should concede. | |
| Among Trump voters, that number falls to 44%. | ||
| 38% of Trump voters say candidates with fewer votes should continue to challenge the results. | ||
| Let's bring in right now political strategist and pollster Frank Luntz. | ||
| Hey Frank, good to see you again. | ||
| What's your takeaway from these numbers? | ||
| Scary as hell. | ||
| I'm here at the Conservative Party Conference. | ||
| I'm trying to say to them, be very careful what you wish for. | ||
| Be very careful what kind of campaign you hold, because you could end up like the US. | ||
| When you lose the faith and trust in elections itself, you've lost your democracy. | ||
| And we are so close to the edge. | ||
| I'm sitting in this room right now with a group of students from Radley College, and I have to teach them, I have to explain to them That this isn't the way democracy is supposed to work. | ||
| That you have winners and losers, you accept the loss, and then you move on. | ||
| We are so poisoned. | ||
| We are so toxic. | ||
| And I don't want what's going on in the U.S. | ||
| to happen here in the U.K. | ||
| That would be a real tragedy. | ||
| So now, Jonathan, is will the abortion decision, will Republican radicalism, will the aftermath of January 6th, will all of that taken together, will Yuvaldi, will these 10-year-old girls having to flee out of state from male legislators who want to force them to have their rapist babies, will all of that combined | ||
| Yeah, it speaks to how powerful those historical forces are, that all those things you just mentioned, including the Roe v. Wade decision, which has become so animating for so many voters, particularly women, new female voters, and yet the Democrats still may fall short. | ||
| I mean, the odds were against them from Election Day 2020. | ||
| When the Democratic margin in the House was going to be so slim, it became next to impossible. | ||
| Leading Democrats concede for them to be able to keep that party. | ||
| And there is still a chance. | ||
| We don't want it until a month ago. | ||
| Things can change. | ||
| It's not written in stone. | ||
| but the odds are against them that it did to be able to keep the house even if they just lose it by a couple of seats and in fact is because joe of all those things you just mentioned that's why the senate still in play because historical tradition you know fifty-fifty that would seem to likely break for republicans as well but now democrats like they've got a fighting chance to come down to a handful of races this thing is probably gonna fifty-fifty or forty one a fifty one forty nine one way or the other the senate's that close is because of all the things you just mentioned | ||
|
unidentified
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Wow. | |
| Peter K. Navarro in for Stephen K. Bannon. | ||
| Look, all we need to do is put those people on in campaign ads for Republicans. | ||
| Around this country, and it'll be a friggin' landslide. | ||
| I mean, what a set of villains you've got there. | ||
| It sounded like a concession speech over there at MSNBC. | ||
| They're basically saying it's over. | ||
| They're clinging to this Roe v. Wade read somehow that's gonna rescue these elections. | ||
| I think not. | ||
| We're gonna have a great show today. | ||
| We're gonna spend much of this hour with the great pollster, Richard Behrs, who I'm going to bring on shortly. | ||
| And then in the 11th block, we're going to go out to Nevada. | ||
| We're going to start there and look at how that Hispanic wave to the Republican Party is playing out, boots on the ground. | ||
| Just a quick market commentary. | ||
| Yesterday, and again today, we've had a big rally in the stock market. | ||
| We're getting, again, the buy, the dip language, this, that, and the other thing. | ||
| There's optimism, this, that, and the other thing. | ||
| Here's the thing. | ||
| There's money that goes into stocks, and there's money that goes into bonds. | ||
| And there's always this movement between what they call asset allocation. | ||
| Okay? | ||
| If you get a movement up in the stock market, it results purely from a shift from the bond to the stock market. | ||
| Essentially, that's what we witnessed yesterday, and it was because of bad economic news. | ||
| One of my favorite indicators, the Institute of Supply Chain Manufacturing Index, was signaling strong recession. | ||
| Okay, now the logic of Wall Street is, well, that means the Fed won't raise interest rates as quickly as they said they were going to do, so that's a relief in the bond market from their plunge in bond prices. | ||
| Therefore, let's move some money into stocks. | ||
| Simple as that. | ||
| We'll see how this long this mini dead cat rally runs, but no one should take any kind of comfort in a stock market rally at this point contingent on expectations that the economy is going to be worse. Now in order to introduce Richard Burris I want to just say the book I have Taking Back Trump's America the whole mission of | ||
| that book is to put Donald Trump back in the White House. | ||
| But in my judgment, the only way we do that is first taking back the House of Representatives from Nancy Pelosi. | ||
| And the reason, as I argue in taking back Trump's America, is fairly simple. | ||
| Congress has weaponized the investigatory powers of Congress in an unconstitutional way designed To do what they should not be doing, which is to create a phony hoax criminal prosecution of Trump for the sole purpose of either throwing enough mud at him to make sure he doesn't win, or their dream scenario is to prevent him from running to begin with because they put him in jail. | ||
| That's what they are doing, and if you allow the wound of Nancy Pelosi to fester and stay open by having her retain the Speaker's gavel in 2024, all hope is lost. | ||
| Now, what we preach here in the War Room is the canon of Steve Bannon. | ||
| It's action Action, action, action. | ||
| It's not just that you have to go to the polls on game day in November and cast your vote. | ||
| That's just part of it. | ||
| What I'm asking you to do between now and then is find one or more candidates out there around the country who are in tight races that we absolutely need to win to take the house And the Senate. | ||
| You know, we've talked a lot about Blake Masters in Arizona. | ||
| That guy, Mitch McConnell, has abandoned him. | ||
| He can win that race. | ||
| Help Blake out. | ||
| Those are the kinds of things we do. | ||
| So, with that in mind, what we're going to do today, it should be fun, is take you kind of on a tour of much of the United States. | ||
| Go state by state, look at some of the congressional races there, and see where you might Come into the picture in terms of helping candidates. | ||
| Without further ado then, let's bring in Richard Barris. | ||
| Richard, my brother, how are you today, sir? | ||
| Living the dream as always, Peter. | ||
| How you doing, brother? | ||
| I'm just hanging in there. | ||
| So what I thought we'd do before we start the state by state exercises is kind of look at kind of the generic handicapping of where we're at on the House and Senate if you want. | ||
| So what you got for us and I know you want to do another poll on that in October so just wax eloquent a little bit. | ||
| Where are we at? | ||
| Where's the chessboard at? | ||
| And people can help us do that if they go to Big Data Pole, Peter, and just scroll to They can learn about the Public Polling Project. | ||
| That's where we do it. | ||
| I always trust my own numbers more than I trust anybody else. | ||
| But, without a doubt, whether you're looking at the Monmouth Poll, which was a very big shift over the last month and a half to Republicans, whether you're looking at YouGov, which for The Economist, which actually did a likely voter, that was a five-point shift among registered voters alone. | ||
| Republicans had a lead there on the on the generic ballot. | ||
| Now, that's significant because that basically never happens, Peter. | ||
| I mean, it's with the methodology from The Economist, YouGov, it's pretty much, you know, almost impossible for Republicans to lead a popular vote poll because their weighting is so ridiculously unrealistic. | ||
| But, you know, we made a lot of hay last week about the ABC News poll. | ||
| The talk was whether or not that shift was going to be prevalent in other polls as well. | ||
| And I think Without a doubt, you can't argue that ABC may have picked up on something. | ||
| So there is a move after we came out of the summer and post-Labor Day to Republicans. | ||
| I think it's fair to say that Biden and the Democrats got that bump from that flurry of bills that got passed. | ||
| It looks like Biden's approval rating got up, but I think Would it not be true that the reality, the stark reality of the economy and the collapse of the financial markets is settling in and this is going to be an economy stupid election? | ||
| Is that where we're at? | ||
| Yeah, that's what, you know, I really grabbed onto that with Mamet yesterday, and it's not that I think they're a fantastic poll, you know, the truth is they're really not. | ||
| But a trend is a trend no matter any way you slice it. | ||
| And, you know, their generic ballot is a little bit weird. | ||
| I've shown people this with the public polling project. | ||
| If you ask the generic ballot, Peter, who do you prefer to control Congress? | ||
| It's different. | ||
| Then if you ask them, who do you intend to vote for? | ||
| Which is, when I was coming up, that's a traditional generic ballot and that's the way we word it. | ||
| I showed people in one of the first public polling projects we did with the generic ballot, look, we can ask this question two different ways and you're going to get two different answers. | ||
| Which, you know, they're each useful in their own way. | ||
| But what they found, which is what I have been claiming about for weeks and weeks now, Polling is always spotty in the summer. | ||
| Maybe Biden's approval bounced up a little bit. | ||
| We had him tick up two points over the course of three months over the summer. | ||
| That's it. | ||
| So other people now, you know, ABC's back down to 38, 39. | ||
| The Monmouth poll's back down to 40. | ||
| They came up with this, and this is what matters. | ||
| Abortion rights is not outweighing people's economic concerns when it comes to who they intend to vote for. | ||
| So if they're holding back and they're not telling the pollster, you know, I don't know, I'm not sure yet, they're going to vote Republican. | ||
| Or not vote at all, and that's the Republican's job is to get those people out. | ||
| But, you know, we're polling Arizona right now. | ||
| It's the same we've seen in every state. | ||
| These people disapprove of Biden. | ||
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unidentified
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Overwhelming. | |
| Got it. | ||
| Let's do this. | ||
| We got about a minute and a half to the break here. | ||
| Let's see if we can fit Alaska in first, and then we'll come back after the break and start with Arizona. | ||
| So obviously the Sarah Palin You know, it really is still a toss-up because of the bitter blood. | ||
| It should not be. | ||
| on the ground in Alaska, what are you reading on the state and maybe that race? | ||
| You know, it really is still a toss up because of the bitter blood. | ||
| It should not be. | ||
| Everyone give Lisa Murkowski and her Rhino team a hand. | ||
| They threw Alaska to the Democrats in order to save Lisa Murkowski's own skin. | ||
| She sacrificed the entire state and their energy economy because in the mid to long term, Peter, this is going to become a bigger problem for Republicans. | ||
| She did it because she knew she could not survive a traditional Republican primary. | ||
| So her and her people work behind the scenes to get ranked choice voting. | ||
| I still do think come November, you know, you probably have to give Palin a little edge because they're going to be more Republican votes, but you beg it, you know, just they don't get along, you know, and they're telling people not to vote for Palin. | ||
| So if you have more moderate Republicans who go out and cast their first vote, right, nobody gets to 50. | ||
| They wind up putting Mayor Paltola as their second choice, which is what happened in that special. | ||
| Then that's a problem. | ||
| That's problematic. | ||
| That being said, there will be more voters in November than there were in that special. | ||
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unidentified
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And that's the X factor for Mayor Paltola. | |
| I was thinking there'd be like a backlash when she lost, when Palin lost in that special, that would really energize the Alaskan Republicans. | ||
| You're not seeing that? | ||
| Or who knows? | ||
| You know, it's a tough state to poll. | ||
| I wouldn't, unless I polled it myself, I wouldn't believe anything that I've seen from people. | ||
| Alaska is one of, it's probably the most difficult state to poll. | ||
| It probably is. | ||
| And then you add ranked choice voting to that, and it's like, guys, take it with a grain of salt. | ||
| I don't care who does it. | ||
| I don't care if it's Fabrizio or some, you know, left-wing news outlet. | ||
| It's a difficult state. | ||
| You're not reaching those rural areas. | ||
| Not happening. | ||
| All right, brother. | ||
| We're going to be right back with Richard Barrison. | ||
| We're going to go to the great state of Arizona. | ||
| I am Peter K. Navarro in for Stephen K. Bannon briefly today. | ||
|
unidentified
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day. | |
| Please go to Amazon right now and order Taking Back Trump's America to help fund Peter's legal defense. | ||
| Taking Back Trump's America provides a critical MAGA blueprint to put Trump back in the White House in 2024. | ||
| Buy Taking Back Trump's America on Amazon today. | ||
| If they can put Peter Navarro in prison, they can come for all of us. | ||
| Yeah, true that. | ||
| Coming for all of us unless we take back Trump's America. | ||
| Okay, we are having a tour of the United States today apropos of taking back Trump's America. | ||
| The mission for everybody in the posse is to win back the House of Representatives and get Pelosi the hell out of there peacefully at the ballot box. | ||
| And so we're talking to the great Richard Barris. | ||
| We have begun our tour around the country. | ||
| So Richard, let's go right to Arizona. | ||
| I've got three races, congressionally, that I'm looking at. | ||
| It's David Schweiker versus Jevin Hodge, Eli Crane versus Tom Halloran. | ||
| Juan Siscomani versus Kirsten Engel. | ||
| That's the one most interesting to me to see whether that's in reach. | ||
| But let's give us an overview of where Arizona is with Kerry Lake, Blake Masters, and Fincham, and then maybe we can get to these Congress races. | ||
| Yeah, some of these I've polled, actually, Peter, which is great, on the whole list, actually. | ||
| But, you know, getting to Arizona, and we're polling it now, people should keep an eye out with cdm.press tomorrow. | ||
| The poll will be We'll be out, likely, tomorrow. | ||
| But I gotta tell you, O'Halloran is done. | ||
| I mean, I don't know how he survives. | ||
| I would add to that, given what we're seeing generically in Arizona... And he's an incumbent, by the way. | ||
| He is. | ||
| He's an incumbent Democrat. | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| Go ahead. | ||
| But he was redistricted into a lot of red vote, you know, to the North. | ||
| And that's problematic for him. | ||
| It's almost backward of what happened to David Schweikert. | ||
| That being said, again, Uh, because of how the Republican ticket at the state level is performing, uh, without giving away too much here. | ||
| Uh, I do think that Schweikart, you know, that leans Republican rating we're seeing on all the forecasters is, uh, understating Schweikart's support. | ||
| Uh, you know, so, uh, Halloran, I think he needs a miracle at this point to survive. | ||
| I think he needs, you know, the Holy Mother to intervene on behalf of him. | ||
| And I would actually add Arizona 4 to this if it ends up being a real wipeout, where you have Cooper going against Scanton. | ||
| He just hasn't been able to raise much money. | ||
| But, you know, there's, you know... Well, stay with me on that now. | ||
| Tell me about that race. | ||
| It's Arizona 4, is that what you said? | ||
|
unidentified
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It is, yes. | |
| And what are the full names of these guys, and who's the Republican, who's the Democrat, who's the incumbent? | ||
| Yeah, the incumbent is a Democrat. | ||
| Um, you know, because again, we have redistricting going along. | ||
| Uh, that is, uh, Scanton, K.F. | ||
| Kelly, Cooper's a Republican. | ||
| And then you have Greg's, oh, Scanton, Stanton, Stanton with two T's, sorry. | ||
| And then you have Greg Stanton, who is the incumbent Democrat. | ||
| Uh, you know, which I guess I would put that race as, you know, toss up to Leans D because I wouldn't even, I wouldn't even normally say toss up if I didn't pull it myself. | ||
| But because I did, I'm looking at the entirety of the state and, you know, the mood and the direction that I think the state's going to go. | ||
| And, you know, if he would hold on, it wouldn't shock me, but everybody else would be gone. | ||
| Who's the Republican? | ||
| What's his name? | ||
| His name is Cooper. | ||
|
unidentified
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Yeah. | |
| Kelly Cooper. | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| Kelly, Kelly. | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| And he was a small businessman who ran because of COVID's lockdown. | ||
| hurting his small businesses. | ||
| You know, months ago, I actually had him on Inside the Numbers and I asked him why he ran and because he's a small business owner and to let people go for those who have ever, you know, hired or employed anybody before when the government forces you to shut your business down and you have to let people go that rely on you for a paycheck. | ||
| It's painful. | ||
| And that's what happened to him. | ||
| And his daughter really looked at him and said, Daddy, you're going to let this happen, you know? | ||
| And he was like, nope. | ||
| So he's, you know, he's really likable. | ||
| He won in, I would say, an upset. | ||
| He is certainly more Trumpy than the establishment candidate that Kevin McCarthy backed. | ||
| And she lost. | ||
| You know, the local, I would say the local McCain wing that had been trying to hold on in Arizona preferred her. | ||
| They didn't get her, it was close, but he edged her out, and, you know, he's been running ever since. | ||
| In a nice way, you know, he would carry forward. | ||
| Alright, let's keep moving here. | ||
| Is the Juan Siscomani Republican on your radar? | ||
| Because he's a Latino person cursed in England in AZ-6. | ||
|
unidentified
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It leans Republican. | |
| Yeah, I would say it's the district itself is favorable to Republicans. | ||
| So, yeah, I mean, again, with the exception of, you know, there are two very Democratic seats in Arizona, and then you have Arizona 4, which is, you know, I would say leans Democrat, for sure, you know, and there's a built-in advantage there. | ||
| But in a bad year for Democrats, Peter, they're going to have problems. | ||
| Just about. | ||
| In four, six is, you know, a real crapshoot. | ||
| And O'Halloran is banking on being in two, is banking on being an incumbent. | ||
| But I'm telling you, the polling looks bad. | ||
| Not happening. | ||
| Let's go to Florida. | ||
| Good luck with that. | ||
| Let's go to Florida real quick. | ||
| I want to zip through these things fairly quickly. | ||
| Florida seven, Corey Mills versus Karen Green. | ||
| Trump did not endorse in this race. | ||
| I'm not sure why. | ||
| But how's Florida? | ||
| I mean, Florida is a big red wave at this point, but is that race on your radar screen? | ||
| So what's that? | ||
| It's going to go to Corey Mills. | ||
| It is very likely Corey Mills going to be the next representative from seven. | ||
| There's another interesting race, which is in 13. | ||
| Luna, Anna Luna, who I told the Republican Party in 2020, you know, they always, you know, ask, I said, this woman can beat Charlie Criss, she can beat him. | ||
| And she came that close, and with no support, with no support, because why? | ||
| Republican leadership is always stupid, and they believe the media polling, and their own, and truth be told, their own pollsters give them bad data, that's just the truth. | ||
| You know, so Texas 15, Florida 13, these are all districts Republicans probably should have represented already by now, but they weren't aggressive enough, you know, and they did what Mitch McConnell is very good at doing, which is like, you know, pulling the fire alarm. | ||
| I always make this analogy, but it's true. | ||
| Believing that the house is on fire, pulling the fire alarm, and instead of being a leader, he tramples over the bodies of small children while he runs out of the burning building himself, to save himself. | ||
| I'll just jump quickly ahead to Texas 15. | ||
| What we're trying to do here, Richard, for the posse is to identify a small number of races here today that they can go to their candidates' websites and help them in the toss-up. | ||
| So this Anna Luna one fascinates me, but you said Monica LaCruz, that's the Republican in Texas 15 versus Michelle Vallejo, who is an incumbent. | ||
| You think we could grab that one, right? | ||
| I do. | ||
| I think it should have fell in 2020. | ||
| Now it's been redistricted, and it actually is redistricted slightly in favor of Republicans more, given what we're seeing in the shift in the Hispanic vote. | ||
| You know, Peter, why these races are important, and I would add 34 to that only, it is going to be harder for Mayra Flores to hold on. | ||
| I do think she can. | ||
| And that's because I just think that at this point there are, you know, I'm looking at the Telemundo poll, which always understates Republican support. | ||
| And even they are showing that it's roughly in line with 2020. | ||
| You know and I know that you add the likely voter model to that and Republicans are going to benefit even more than that poll suggests from a shift in Hispanic voting. | ||
| If you're going to make it happen, you're going to make a play for it. | ||
| It has to be there. | ||
| Let's do one more before the break and then we'll come back and keep going. | ||
| But the one that's fascinated me ...is in Iowa. | ||
| It's Iowa 3, Zach Nunn vs. Sidney Axne, who's the Democrat incumbent I've been urging us to axe the axe. | ||
| Is that one on your radar screen? | ||
| I think she's getting the axe. | ||
| In good Republican years, Republicans could take every single district in the state of Iowa. | ||
| That's just where that state is at this point. | ||
| There's a lot of economics that go into this. | ||
| For people, the issues you talk about all the time, you just did in the cold open there when we were talking about markets and asset allocation. | ||
| This hurts the Midwest farmer badly. | ||
| Um, you know, and the, the idea of free trade and all the money going to Ukraine, this kicks people off in this area of the country because, you know, they're struggling, they're hurting, uh, they don't get access to those foreign markets anyway. | ||
| It's like just basically writing a blank check to people while your own farmers struggle. | ||
| Uh, you know, and it's more than that. | ||
| Those people, the people in Iowa three rely on, uh, people in Iowa too. | ||
| Right. | ||
| So, uh, you know, I just see. | ||
| I don't see Democrats holding on to this. | ||
| Even in 2020. | ||
| Let's try one more before the break. | ||
| Kansas 3, Amanda Atkins, the Republican versus Sharice Davids, the incumbent. | ||
| That's another chance to get a net gain. | ||
| Is that one on your radar screen? | ||
| Yeah, it is, but I would say that really is a pure toss-up in a year like this. | ||
| I really do think that's the case. | ||
| People have to understand, yes, Kansas is ruby red. | ||
| You have states like Nebraska that are ruby red. | ||
| But they have this very deep-rooted history of progressive populism that kind of mixes in. | ||
| So it's never just a shoe-in, is my point. | ||
| Now, if it's a Republican plus three year, that seat is gone, obviously. | ||
| But we'll see. | ||
| Or at least I would say it's likely. | ||
| Uh, to be, but there are some areas where we have seen in recent elections, Peter, in this part of the country, uh, where there, you know, things have changed. | ||
| They're not what they used to be and they still have that history. | ||
| Uh, so it gets a little bit more educated as time goes on. | ||
| So it is one area where I wouldn't take for granted. | ||
| Would it, if you twisted my arm, I would say, obviously I think the Republican has a slight edge here. | ||
| I think Republicans in most of these that we're going through before the break, let me just say, That they do have the edge because it is an incumbent midterm, a first term incumbent midterm. | ||
| All right, my brother, we're going to be back in just a few minutes. | ||
| We are with Richard Barris taking a great tour of the United States politically. | ||
|
unidentified
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I am Peter K. Navarro in the War Room for Stephen K. Bannon. | |
| Stephen K. Bannon calls Taking Back Trump's America a brass-knuckled insider's account of the merciless 2020 fall. | ||
| And miraculous 2024 rise of the White House of Trump. | ||
| Taking Back Trump's America is the blueprint for a new Trump White House that will truly make America great once again. | ||
| Order Taking Back Trump's America today on Amazon. | ||
| Peter K. Navarro in for Stephen K. Bannon. | ||
| We must take back Trump's America. | ||
| This book, Taking Back Trump's America, for me is not a book. | ||
| It's a mission right now. | ||
| And as I write in the Taking Back Trump's America book, we can't get Donald Trump in the White House in 2024 unless we get Pelosi the hell out of Congress as the Speaker in 2022. | ||
| For the next 30-something days, our mission, Posse, is to do everything we can to help some candidates there in toss-up races. | ||
| So I'm going to do this a little bit in real time. | ||
| I'm going to ask Cameron later on to get some of the picks up on the War Room site. | ||
| But we've been talking with Richard Bear, so I'm going to go right back to him quickly. | ||
| But so far, Cameron and Posse, the races that really have caught my eye for Posse help, the ones that can win, Zach Nunn, the Republican versus Sidney Axne in Iowa 3. | ||
| Richard Beres came up with a fascinating race that the leadership, such as it is in the House Republicans, have been ignoring. | ||
| It's Kelly Cooper. | ||
| Kelly Cooper in Arizona 4. | ||
| Let's see if we can get his website and help him out. | ||
| I love this Anna Luna race, a Republican in Florida, 13, a Latina that can definitely win. | ||
| And again, in Texas, 15, Monica De La Cruz, the Republican. | ||
| Those are all seats that we could have a four seat swing alone by focusing on those alone. | ||
| All right, now let's get back to the great Richard Beres And before we start, Richard, would you just let people know how to support your efforts, because there's another important poll you've got to be doing in October. | ||
| So give them the pitch there, and your best Mike Lindell pitch, and then we'll come back, and I want to talk about next May 2 and Bruce Poliquin. | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| Thanks for that, Peter. | ||
| People go to bigdatapoll.com and they scroll to the bottom. | ||
| They're going to see the public polling project, a bunch of graphs, right track, wrong track. | ||
| We have a lot more we have to put up, but below that as well, you can see where you can support it. | ||
| It's a completely crowdfunded effort. | ||
| It is not sponsored by a media organization, which I don't want to let go of this. | ||
| We do do media polling, but this was very successful in 2020. | ||
| We went state by state. | ||
| This is for the generic ballot and national numbers to get Joe Biden's approval rating. | ||
| And look, when we're trying to forecast the way things are going, Peter, I always trust myself more than I trust anybody else. | ||
| So, you know, it has been more than a few cycles when I was the outsider or outlier and, you know, I was right and they were not. | ||
| So I hate to be left like these other forecasters solely relying on media polling. | ||
| Because it's not very good. | ||
| So, yeah, we're now in October 4th, and it's very important to get at least another, if not one, at least another two generic ballots, one final, but definitely an October one, to see, because we had it tighten as well. | ||
| We still had a Republican lead, but it tightened, and I want to see where it is now, and I think it's very important. | ||
| All right, my brother. | ||
| Let's go to the great state of Maine. | ||
| I want to preface this by a little time I spent when I was in the White House. | ||
| Maine has two congressional districts. | ||
| Maine 1 is kind of the Portland area where all of the liberals from Boston kind of hang out to avoid taxes. | ||
| It's hopelessly Democrat, right? | ||
| But we always wanted to hang on to Maine, too, and my mission at the White House was to help the lobster folks, the blueberry folks, the timber folks, and I took it as a matter of some pride Uh, that we could go after that and win it. | ||
| So, I was, like, when I looked at this race, I was surprised that this guy, Jared Golden, uh, a Democrat, an incumbent, is holding on to Maine too. | ||
| Uh, there's a guy named Bruce Poliquin, the Republican. | ||
| Uh, we'd love to see him win. | ||
| Uh, do you have any thoughts on this race, Richard? | ||
| Yeah, two. | ||
| One is Bangor Daily News is the only pollster, they have contracted the only pollster who has a good track record of polling, not only the entire state, but specifically Maine too. | ||
| If you go back and look the last three cycles of polling, you will see nothing but blue, except for, you know, even when Trump carried Maine too, except for the Bangor Daily, which had Trump up by eight, nailed it at all times. | ||
| Uh, this again too is like Alaska where you have crazy voting and crazy on how you count votes. | ||
| Uh, but I would say if anybody can do this, I'm more bullish on Poliquin than I am on some of these other races. | ||
| Why? | ||
| Uh, you know, he's very Trumpy. | ||
| It's Maine too. | ||
| You know, Mitt Romney would lose Maine too. | ||
| He would. | ||
| Uh, but not Donald Trump. | ||
| It is a different message. | ||
| Poliquin is all about inflation in immigration trade. | ||
| Uh, so if anybody can do it, uh, it's him. | ||
| I, I, it is a pure toss up. | ||
| But I would say he's got a strong chance. | ||
| They started rank choice voting, them and Alaska are the only two. | ||
|
unidentified
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For now, give it time. | |
| All right, let's go to a state which is always an enigma to me, given, again, when I was in the White House, my mission was to rebuild the manufacturing base in this country. | ||
| And of course, Michigan is at the center of that, along with Ohio and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. | ||
| But first of all, the Tudor-Dixon, the Republican versus the witch Gretchen Whitmer, a lot of suppression polls, I think, out making like that race is over. | ||
| See if you have any comments on that. | ||
| And I've got three, at least three races on my radar here. | ||
| Michigan 3, John Gibbs, the Republican, versus Hillary Schotten. | ||
| Michigan 10. | ||
| John James, the Republican, versus Carl Malinga, and Michigan 36, Steve Cara versus Roger Williams. | ||
| So, why don't you give us a nice slice of Michigan here, from Detroit to the UP. | ||
| You know, let's see, Michigan 3, you know, in full disclosure, during the primary, I did poll for John Gibbs, you know, but since the pivot to the general, that's no longer the case. | ||
| I'm trying to take an independent look at it here. | ||
| But this really should be a seat that Republicans pick up, or it's really a hold, actually, because John Gibbs, of course, beat the Trump-impeaching Peter Meyer with universal name recognition. | ||
| When we polled this from Gibbs in this, you know, before the primary, He was the only one who got 9 in 10 Republican based support and actually had a slight lead with independents, so he had a small lead. | ||
| Since then, a lot of money has been thrown at him. | ||
| I had seen some other polling from Republican entities. | ||
| It was ridiculously educated. | ||
| Michigan is a working class state. | ||
|
unidentified
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All right. | |
| So the polls are horrible. | ||
| That being said, somebody I know who does poll Michigan well, I did have Tudor Dixon struggling. | ||
| She's down, not horribly, but she's down. | ||
| And there is that abortion issue and all of the Democrats are trying to latch onto that. | ||
| At the end of the day, it may peel some votes away. | ||
| I just don't see it being maybe a factor in the governor's race more so than something for John Gibbs. | ||
| John's got to win this race, and I think he can. | ||
| I do. | ||
| But I think it's going to be close. | ||
| Sabato and Cook report. Yeah, but just say one thing Sabato and Cook both have the Gibbs race lean Democrat. | ||
| So yeah, because they're frauds, you know, they're frauds. | ||
| They're glorified poll readers. | ||
| I was playing Twitter Jeopardy the other day, Peter. | ||
| Which forecaster had their final email memo out there that said Democrats poised to pick up at least 15 seats in 2020? | ||
| Those guys all believed that Democrats were going to add to the majority in 2020. | ||
| Minute Gibbs won that election. | ||
| Won that primary, they moved it to Leans D. If they really cared about what the data showed, they would have moved it at least from Leans D to toss up, if not toss up, to Leans Republican at that time. | ||
| Because Republicans had a nice lead on the generic ballot, and all of the polling, it wasn't just mine, Peter Mayer's own polling, which people leaked to me from his campaign, his own polling showed that he was getting blown out by Hillary because he couldn't hold the Republican base. | ||
| Peter, we found almost four in ten Republicans said, I would rather him lose because he voted to impeach Donald Trump. | ||
| I would rather not vote at all in that race and watch him go down in flames that if they think those people were lying. | ||
| They're nuts, but they're not pollsters. | ||
| They're glorified poll readers, and there's no forecast model. | ||
| They're looking at polls, just like the rest of you at home are doing. | ||
| That's all they do. | ||
| There's nothing special. | ||
| They don't have a secret sauce. | ||
| That's why they're wrong all the time, because the polls are wrong all the time. | ||
| The more inaccurate the polls get, the more inaccurate their forecast models get. | ||
| You find a relationship there, right? | ||
| Let's go to Minnesota. | ||
| There's one race there that I'm really interested in there. | ||
| It's rated toss-up. | ||
| It's a chance to pick up a seat. | ||
| It's Tyler Kistner, the Republican, versus Angie Craig, the incumbent. | ||
| Is this on your radar? | ||
| I actually think Angie Craig is one of the most vulnerable incumbents across the board. | ||
| So if Republicans have a good night, she's finished. | ||
| I know people want to keep talking about Finstad and won the special election. | ||
| He barely won it. | ||
| No, he won it by four points. | ||
| And he won it with the largest share that a Republican congressional candidate has won since going back to 2010 when they started looking in that area in Olmstead County. | ||
| I gotta tell you too, or outside of it, I gotta tell you too that everyone wanted to compare his margin to Donald Trump. | ||
| Trump won it by almost 10. | ||
| Well, he's Donald Trump and it's Minnesota. | ||
| It's that kind of area in the Midwest outside of the Twin Cities where Donald Trump is just, you know, he's a rock star. | ||
| So you don't compare a Congress to the presidency if you know that there's a long history of other congressional candidates. | ||
| Republicans have underperformed Trump there for years. | ||
| So Finsta did the best we've seen any modern candidate do in the last four cycles. | ||
| So I think that's solid. | ||
| Going to that next one with Angie Craig, I think if you see Finsta win that by five, then Angie's done. | ||
| She's done. | ||
| Because she has been struggling to hold on for a long time, and redistricting did not really go the way she had hoped. | ||
| Is the Kistner race, is that something the War Room Posse could get involved in? | ||
| Is that one close enough to matter? | ||
| This is another thing. | ||
| It is. | ||
| You know, I would say, too, going back even with Gibbs, you know, there's a lot of help that could have been given earlier that was not given. | ||
| And, you know, it's like, look, I've said this before, and I know, you know, I'm not here to make friends. | ||
| I, you know, I shoot, I call balls and strikes. | ||
| McCarthy sat on his hands for a long time. | ||
| It took weeks, weeks to contact some of these candidates. | ||
| So I think it's going to have to be the voter who does it. | ||
| It's going to have to be the voter. | ||
| It's going to have to be Trump. | ||
| He sucked a lot of money out of the room, let's face it. | ||
| There's people that need help. | ||
| They cannot do this when the Democrats are constantly outracing and beating them over the head. | ||
| That being said, some of these races you would think with the Democrat advantage would be over, Peter. | ||
| The fact that they're not should tell you everything about how this season is going. | ||
| So, you know, John James, clear a favorite in Michigan. | ||
| You know, so I would, I would, if you're looking at who to help, you know, I don't want to, I'm trying to walk a line here, but if you're looking at who to help, uh, you know, Gibbs could be the help a lot more than John James could, you know, which by the way, who, who are they, who is the leadership focused on? | ||
| It's like, they're trying to win races. | ||
| They know they're likely to win anyway. | ||
| And they're not trying to make that extra effort. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yeah. | |
| You know? | ||
| Counting votes, not seats, Peter. | ||
| Counting votes. | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| All right. | ||
| We are with the great Richard Barris. | ||
| We will be back for a wrap-up around the country. | ||
| And I am Peter Canovara in for Stephen K. Bannon. | ||
|
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| Alright, let's go back to Richard Beres. | ||
| We've added, Cameron, two races to our list. | ||
| The Gibbs race in Michigan 3 for the posse to support, and Tyler Kistner in Michigan 2. | ||
| That would be well worth your time and money. | ||
| For those two races. | ||
| All right, Richard, we're going to do, because we're short in this last segment, a lightning round. | ||
| North Carolina, you got the Sandy Smith versus Donald Davis in NC1 and Bo Hines versus Willie Nickel, NC13. | ||
| Which either one of those races are close enough to get the posse involved in? | ||
| Yeah, I understand the Leans Democrat rating from other people when it comes to North Carolina 1, but Sandy Smith is endorsed by Donald Trump and in a good year she absolutely can win that race. | ||
| And Tyler's Minnesota 2, by the way. | ||
| Bo, when it comes to Bo, I think Bo is favored. | ||
| Not that he's got to take his foot off the gas, nobody ever should, but I think that his race is obviously much easier to win than Sandy's, but Sandy can win that race. | ||
| All right, let's go to New Hampshire. | ||
| I got two races there. | ||
| Bob Burns versus Andy Custer, an incumbent, in New Hampshire, too. | ||
| And then the Caroline Leavitt-Chris Pappas race, another Democrat incumbent in NH1. | ||
| What say you, sir? | ||
| This is especially, one is a, I would say, a manic district. | ||
| They swing back and forth, because Shea Porter used to have these fights, you know, every year. | ||
| The Republican would lose it, the Democrat would lose it, back and forth, back and forth. | ||
| You know, I really think there leans Democrat only because of incumbency, and I think that may not be the factor that some people believe. | ||
| Down ballot, even though the Senate polling looks like Hassan is keeping a lead, Even though Democrats don't feel that comfortable about it behind closed doors, by the way. | ||
| But down-ballot, the polling from Anselm College and the University of New Hampshire, which hasn't been great, shows down-ballot, Republicans are going to do very well. | ||
| So, I'm not sure if that Senate race, even if Hassan wins, is going to translate into an advantage for the incumbents there. | ||
| So, I really do think, especially one is a toss-up, and we're just going to have to wait and see. | ||
| Uh, you know, whether new polling comes in, maybe, or at least credible. | ||
| So help Caroline Leavitt. | ||
| Yeah, I really think Leavitt can win. | ||
| I really do think she can. | ||
| Absolutely. | ||
| Alright, let's go to Ohio 9. | ||
| I know Marcy Kaptur, the Democrat incumbent, when I was in the White House, she talks a good game, but never delivers Pelosi probably. | ||
| Has Majewski, Jared Majewski, got a chance there? | ||
| Is that a race that you'd recommend the posse think about helping? | ||
| He absolutely does. | ||
| Look, I got to say this real quick, you know, between a lot of these races we're talking about right now, these are only races that aren't, you know, considered leaning Republican, especially J.R. | ||
| Maricapter is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country right now. | ||
| He's been hit with a lot of negative press. | ||
| And again, Kevin McCarthy abandoned him. | ||
| So, you know, if he doesn't get help from people, then it's, you know, it could be a waste of a race that is Easily winnable, especially if the polling, as usual, is really wrong in Ohio and J.D. | ||
| Vance wins that state by eight points. | ||
| If he does, then Captor would have a very difficult time holding on. | ||
| Very difficult. | ||
| Alright, let's jump to Pennsylvania. | ||
| I've got Jim Bognet in Pennsylvania, eight is a toss-up. | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| Versus Matt Cartwright, the incumbent. | ||
| That's a great chance to pick up a seat. | ||
| And Jeremy Schaefer versus Chris DiLuzio, Pennsylvania 17, another toss-up. | ||
| What say you, sir? | ||
| NN7, I think Scheller is probably favored. | ||
| I think it's fair to say that one leans Republican. | ||
| The other two really are toss-ups. | ||
| And it will matter how Oz and Doug Mastriano do there. | ||
| Generically, the generic ballot in Republican is Republican in Pennsylvania. | ||
| I know, I polled it. | ||
| Those two are the ones who would benefit from that the most. | ||
| They were running a little bit behind Trump, though. | ||
| We did the rematch as well. | ||
| And generically, Republicans were running a little bit behind Donald Trump statewide. | ||
| Crushing Joe Biden. | ||
| So that concerns, that should concern Republicans a little bit. | ||
| But again, if it's undecided people, Peter, there that are willing to say they'll vote for Donald Trump in 2024, if they get to the polls, then it's highly likely they're going to vote for the Republican in the congressional district. | ||
| So both Bognett and Schaefer are worth doing. | ||
| Does Mastriano, is he close enough to win now? | ||
| I gotta pull that again. | ||
| I understand what people, you know, that I told people Oz definitely had the ability to outperform Mastriano because he was doing so well in other Trumpy areas and like Donald Trump in 16, got in the 40s in Allegheny County. | ||
| He slipped a little bit in 2020 into 38 territory. | ||
| Oz was at 44. | ||
| He polled a lot like Trump and Allegheny. | ||
| So, you know, if he consolidated the Republican base, he could outrun Mastriano. | ||
| You know, we had it very close, that governor's race, a month and a half ago. | ||
| And I would really like to poll it again before, I believe, some of those polls. | ||
| Because, you know, if you're going to miss voters, then miss Mastriano's, not Oz's. | ||
|
unidentified
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That's poll stuff. | |
| All right, 15 seconds on Gene Kiggins versus Elaine Luria, an incumbent who sits on that select committee, Virginia 2. | ||
| Is that in reach? | ||
| It is, and so is Abigail Spanberger. | ||
| I think Virginia 2, we just saw somebody move that to Leans Republican yesterday. | ||
| Obviously, they must have saw some internal polling, and that's why they leaned it. | ||
| I think between two and seven, when we polled Virginia and we polled it correctly in the governor's race, even going back to 21, people were saying, you know, I'm going to vote against the Democratic incumbents. | ||
|
unidentified
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So there are two districts that are very doable. | |
| Because we're out of time. | ||
| Quick, give your coordinates. | ||
| BigDataPoll.com. | ||
| Go to the bottom, support the public polling project. | ||
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| This is the best man in polling. | ||
| I love Richard Beres. | ||
| That was a great hour with you, sir. | ||
| We'll be back with Stephen K. Bannon in the War Room. |
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