Sept. 23, 2022 - Bannon's War Room
47:45
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| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
| This is what you're fighting for. | ||
| I mean, every day you're out there. | ||
| What they're doing is blowing people off. | ||
| If you continue to look the other way and shut up, then the oppressors, the authoritarians, get total control and total power. | ||
| Because this is just like in Arizona. | ||
| This is just like in Georgia. | ||
| It's another element that backs them into a corner and shows their lies and misrepresentations. | ||
| This is why this audience is going to have to get engaged. | ||
| As we've told you, this is the fight. | ||
|
unidentified
|
All this nonsense, all this spin, they can't handle the truth. | |
| War Room Battleground. | ||
| Here's your host, Stephen K. Bannon. | ||
| Okay. | ||
| With 47 days to go, uh, you're in the War Room Battleground. | ||
| It's Thursday, 22 September in the Year of the Lord 2022. | ||
| A very special hour, only two guests, two of the smartest guys I know in this business. | ||
| One is Alex Degrassi. | ||
| He is the executive director of Team Elise. | ||
| As a basically Elise Stefanik's political operation also works very closely obviously the Republican conference NRCC all of that. | ||
| One of the smartest analytical guys I know and a young strategist that really gets and of course. | ||
| Richard Barris, the People's Pundit, does a lot of work now for CD Media, also Big Data, his polling operation. | ||
| Remember, Richard was with us on election night of 3 November in the year of 2022 and basically called exactly what was going to happen. | ||
| So we've got the great Richard Barris. | ||
| I want to turn it over to Alex. | ||
| This is really Alex's first time in the War Room. | ||
| Alex, I'm going to turn it over to you. | ||
| You've done a lot of analytical work here, and I want you to go through the analytics, but also the strategy Of what happened because we can feel a tectonic plate shift happening, but this just didn't happen. | ||
| This was a lot of smart people, uh, really focusing on what was important for a citizen of the United States and really, uh, messaging to voters. | ||
| So Alex, why don't you take it? | ||
| I know you got a number of charts and analysis. | ||
| Uh, so just, uh, go with it, sir. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Thank you, Steve. | |
| It's such an honor to be here as a member of the posse, obviously in the trenches here in Republican leadership. | ||
| I think we have begun the great counter offensive of our time politically. | ||
| It started on Labor Day. | ||
| People are kind of looking at what's happening. | ||
| Democrats spent July and August spending a lot of money on TV, attacking our candidates, and they really haven't had any hit stick. | ||
| We've actually kept a lot of our fire to Labor Day. | ||
| And if you've seen on your TVs, hopefully if you're in one of the 74 targeted battleground seats that we're hitting very hard, We are now outspending the Democrats and hammering them on the issues that are most important to the voters. | ||
| Inflation, security, crime, the border, economics in general, actually also unity and protecting your rights. | ||
| And we're seeing the numbers move very quickly. | ||
| I can exclusively say we've seen in our numbers across the board that we've shifted Democrats' unfavorables up over 12% in two weeks. | ||
| That's the average across all targeted Democrat candidates. | ||
| Well, our candidates are holding their ground. | ||
| This is just the beginning, especially as votes begin to get cast in the next coming weeks. | ||
| Military ballots go out in about a couple days for certain areas, and it's really going to heat up here across the board. | ||
| We have to stay focused. | ||
| The signal not the noise, as everyone knows. | ||
| People need to dig deep now. | ||
| We have the opportunity to have the biggest blowout, certainly of my lifetime and possibly yours as well, Steve. | ||
| And we feel great about it. | ||
| We are very confident that we have the candidates, the funding and the message. | ||
| Hang on. | ||
| I mean, I want to just go back for a second and make sure that the audience understands nomenclature and critical path and process here. | ||
| It's so important. | ||
| Elections are always about issue sets and about candidates and campaigns and messaging around that. | ||
| I want to go back to July and August, and I want to be very specific because there's polling coming out of Vegas today about, you know, the Democrats made a bet on, I think, white college educated women, whereas the Republicans have made a bet on working class Hispanics. | ||
| I want to go back to July and August. | ||
| Particularly the Democrats came in hard, probably figuring they had to, but their issue set was very different. | ||
| Walk us through that, and you're saying that they put tons of money in, but really didn't drive it, just a glancing blow, they didn't have a knockout punch. | ||
| Was it because of the issue set, or because of where they spent the money, the districts they spent, etc.? | ||
| Walk us through that for a second before we talk about the great counterpunch that we're seeing here post-Labor Day. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yeah, so certainly they focused obviously on January 6th. | |
| Abortion as that's common play. | ||
| We're just not seeing that as a massive driver. | ||
| I sent a graphic over to you guys. | ||
| If you look at NBC poll, this lead was totally buried. | ||
| They didn't even talk about it in the media. | ||
| They asked candidates, you know, who are you looking for in a candidate? | ||
| Who are you looking to support? | ||
| The candidate that's going to take on the cost of living. | ||
| We jumped to the second one. | ||
| Um, so I apologize about that when we jump. | ||
| Yep. | ||
| We jumped on the cost of living. | ||
| Are you looking to support the cost of living candidate? | ||
| Or are you looking to support the abortion candidate? | ||
| When you really look into the numbers, the abortion candidate, it's a Democrat base. | ||
| It's faith in. | ||
| We have not only Hispanic voters, but we feel actually very good about, you know, white working class, college educated as well. | ||
| They're feeling the punch, this economic crisis across the country. | ||
| They're not getting through. | ||
| They're not getting through the voters. | ||
| People are not worried about January 6th. | ||
| They're not worried about He's baseless smears on President Trump, the illegitimate witch hunt. | ||
| It's just not going to work. | ||
| And we have the issue set because most importantly, on midterms, Steve, as you mentioned, you know, presidentials, you know, the presidential candidates are driving our voters. | ||
| You've got higher turnout. | ||
| But in the midterms, it's really about issues that in twenty eighteen. | ||
| The issues were healthcare. | ||
| They were not great issues for us, and that's really what really kind of did us in that cycle. | ||
| This time, we have never seen in our lifetime the issue set more in our favor, and that's why you're seeing ad after ad prosecuting Biden's crisis, the inflation crisis, the crime crisis, the border security crisis, and we're blowing them out by 20 points on those across the board. | ||
| What I like about the ads is that these are all created crises. | ||
| These are things that just didn't, I mean, America wasn't like that before these guys took over and controlled both houses. | ||
| Let me just go back for one second. | ||
| Midterms are always, you hear this conversation between a referendum and a choice. | ||
| You've heard it nonstop about the Roe v. Wade decision and signing up new women. | ||
| Just from what you saw in July and August and where we stand today, Did abortion play out more than just their base voters and have they registered all these new voters and particularly young voters? | ||
| Is there any any any indice or any data at all shows you that the young because they've made some very specific bets on the 90 days leading up to Labor Day. | ||
| Have you seen any any positive response from their perspective from that or did it just not play out? | ||
|
unidentified
|
No, certainly they've seen a small coalescing of their own base. | |
| I think if you look back four months ago, Biden was cratering even among hard Democrats. | ||
| You see a very tight coalescing. | ||
| But in terms of the voter that's least likely to go vote, Steve, it's a young voter. | ||
| It's their voters. | ||
| They are attempting to prime that pump. | ||
| They have not been able to move those numbers over the last two months. | ||
| We look at Over two, three hundred polls in Republican leadership, we can run the numbers in a macro sense. | ||
| They're not moving the numbers. | ||
| It's incumbent upon R and the posse to dig deep, get ten people out, organize, and get out, because we will have the momentum to win this. | ||
| They are not moving the numbers among young people. | ||
| They're just not. | ||
| The data does not say that. | ||
| The media is attempting to say that, but we have no proof that there's this jump in energy among young voters, that they're going to need to see essentially presidential-level type of energy. | ||
| That's just not going to happen. | ||
| I just want to make sure one more time, this whole, because the media has been inundated every day, MSNBC, CNN, New York Times, about this surge of women voters. | ||
| You're saying, hey, the guy was in free fall, that did coalesce some of his core voters, people that, for that topic it's important to them, but you're not seeing any expansion into the suburbs or exurbs or anything that they had hoped for. | ||
| To really drive this, to offset the debacle they've had on issues like inflation, like the economy. | ||
| So you're not seeing that? | ||
|
unidentified
|
We're not seeing that at all. | |
| In fact, they're essentially like spending this money. | ||
| They're kind of wasting it. | ||
| You get so many shots, right, Steve? | ||
| And you've got, you know, how the dollars are spent. | ||
| People have to be very strategic. | ||
| It's a total scam, essentially. | ||
| If you look at the 20, you know, what they've used is the New York 19 special election. | ||
| They give misinformation off about it. | ||
| There was actually essentially six Democrat candidates running on the primary, putting out their own voters on the same day. | ||
| We had no Republican primaries. | ||
| They were able to juice their turnout situation. | ||
| People say that was a flip. | ||
| It was not a flip. | ||
| That's a seat Biden won. | ||
| We will win it in November. | ||
| We're not worried. | ||
| It's all noise and an attempt to suppress our voters, suppress swing voters, from casting that ballot. | ||
| The data is clear. | ||
| Voters are looking for a candidate that's going to put a check and stop Joe Biden, whether that's swing voters, Hispanics. | ||
| I mean, Steve, I can say today that our own Republican polling has us winning Hispanic voters across the country by significant margins. | ||
| And when you look at the polling for the folks watching, you see these national polling averages. | ||
| You have to tune that out. | ||
| You gotta look at the individual battleground polls. | ||
| When we poll, we're looking at the 74 seats we're playing in. | ||
| It's a sort of an average of Biden plus six. | ||
| We're playing into their territory and we are seeing very tight races in areas that Biden won by 15, 17 points. | ||
| Where we are within the margins and closing fast. | ||
| And we do have the opportunity if we continue to get the funding from generous folks that we will be able to play in the most seats that we've ever played in before. | ||
| We're already doing that actually, but we will be able to go much deeper as things come online late. | ||
| And that's why we've held our fire. | ||
| I just want to make sure the audience here, I'm going to put this in historical perspective. | ||
| When we had the Newt Gingrich revolution in 94, and you had the Tea Party revolt in 2010, correct me if I'm wrong Alex, I think we were dealing off bases of 174, 175 seats. | ||
| Those are historic wins, and the Tea Party was 63, but you're on 74. | ||
| We're at 2, I think 13 or 211, right, depending on what these special elections have gone. | ||
| When you're talking 74 seats, You're talking unbelievable numbers. | ||
| I think the most the GOP conferences ever had, my math may be right, I think it's 252 seats in history. | ||
| So you're talking about a historic win. | ||
| I also want to not bury the lead here, and I'm going to bring in Barris in a second. | ||
| I don't want to bury the lead. | ||
| You're saying right now, on the data that you guys are looking at, and you're talking about 200 or 300 polls in these battles, and you're specifically focused on battleground states and battleground districts and 74 in play. | ||
| That we're going to win, according to your analysis, we're going to win the majority of the Hispanic vote, as it looks right now, in those key districts? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Absolutely. | |
| We are winning. | ||
| Their number one issue is inflation and crime. | ||
| The problem is the Democrat issues, not just the Democrat party, but Democrat voters, for the most part, are dissociated from the rest of the voters. | ||
| So Democrat voters, their top issue is also inflation. | ||
| But then you go into climate change, environment, you know, this January 6th up. | ||
| We're not seeing that with independents. | ||
| We're not seeing that with Republicans, swing voters. | ||
| So you have a situation where the hard left is sort of dissociating and speaking to themselves. | ||
| Independents, Hispanics, swing voters are falling into our issue sets. | ||
| Inflation, crime, border security, protecting rights, Second Amendment, things like that. | ||
| That really is what could spell a total disaster for the Democrats. | ||
| I want to go back to the concept of this issue set is what Trump in 16 was all about. | ||
| I just want to go to the issue set again by NBC News. | ||
| Border security, GOP plus 36. | ||
| Crime, plus 23. | ||
| Immigration, plus 19. | ||
| Economy, plus 19. | ||
| Cost of living inflation, plus 14. | ||
| Unity, bringing the country together, plus 6. | ||
| When you look at theirs, you know, abortion plus 22, but the other issues are not That's exactly right. | ||
| front burner issues like protecting democracy and there's not a huge it's like plus six they're just not of this moment of where people are and where people think the country is particularly the working class is that generally the thinking of NRCC and in the conference is that this issue set is what's foremost in front of the American people? That's exactly right. If you look at the ads, it's inflation, it's cost of living, it's Biden's crisis. | ||
|
unidentified
|
But most importantly, it's about the Democrat incumbents that have voted with Joe Biden 100%. | |
| I'll send you this ad to watch. | ||
| It's great. | ||
| We'll put it up at Subway. | ||
| Alyssa Slotkin, she's on a Zoom call and she's like, in her own words, boy, we're getting used to just spending trillions and trillions of dollars. | ||
| That's right. | ||
| They are, we pay. | ||
| They're spending, we pay. | ||
| It's their own words. | ||
| And the Democrats in Congress have gone along with Joe Biden's agenda 100%. | ||
| You have people that claim to be moderate 100% with Joe Biden, 100% with Nancy Pelosi. | ||
| It's frankly real malpractice. | ||
| It's something that we've sort of sat there thinking, wow, I mean, it's crazy. | ||
| You would think maybe that they would try to throw these guys a bone, give them some type of independence. | ||
| But because we did so well in 2020 on the ballot with President Trump, we were able to get those numbers so close. | ||
| They've been forced to walk the plank, whether it be tax hikes on the middle class with this inflation bill. | ||
| And if I sent over one of the slides, it would be the last one. | ||
| But only 37% in the New York Times polling has voters supporting this inflation act. | ||
| Those numbers are only going to go down as we open fire. | ||
| We understand only 32% oppose. | ||
| Slow down. | ||
| I want to make sure we explain that. | ||
| This is very important because this was, I said that what happened is that the senators realized the game was up. | ||
| They're going to lose the Senate. | ||
| This was a payoff for their donors. | ||
| I mean, this thing's a grab bag of just bizarre spending, right? | ||
| And but they renamed it the Orwellian, right, the Inflation Control Act. | ||
| I want you to go what you guys focus on immediately. | ||
| Nobody but the hardest core of the Democratic base who really doesn't understand it supports that, correct? | ||
| That's what your analysis showed that, hey, this is not a win for them. | ||
| We can actually turn this to a loser because it's driving inflation. | ||
| Was that the theory of the case for you guys? | ||
|
unidentified
|
That's exactly right. | |
| And so usually when you get these big spending bills where the money's being passed around, usually you'll get your highest peak of support right after it's passed, right when people get the funding. | ||
| And then from there, it's all downhill because people, you know, you have the same numbers with the Infrastructure Act with their earlier bills on Build Back Better. | ||
| People aren't seeing the economic agenda of Joe Biden help them. | ||
| They're seeing that in the polls. | ||
| That was another slide I sent over. | ||
| Voters are not equating Joe Biden. | ||
| And this is NBC, again, a buried lead. | ||
| They are not seeing the positive impact on Joe Biden's agenda. | ||
| And, you know, once we start opening fire and educating voters on what's in these bills, massive bailouts for luxury resorts, different things like that, golf courses, you know, that's in our ads. | ||
| And so if you look at the ads, we're saying, look, she's spending all the money, Alyssa Slotkin, and he's giving massive handouts to some of these big corporations and you're paying the price. | ||
| I want to go back to something before I go to Barris real quickly. | ||
| You said, which is another massive Barry lead, you're right now seeing Biden plus six districts and you think you could get up to with the money being smartly spent and focus on driving up their negatives because you're educating independent and maybe even some moderate Democrat voters, potentially swing voters to this orgy of spending in the crime wave. | ||
| You actually said you go to 15 and 17. | ||
| Do you believe right now that Republicans going after Democratic incumbents in Biden plus six districts is achievable? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Oh, absolutely, Steve. | |
| What I was saying was we're looking at the 74 seats and the median margin of those seats is Biden plus six. | ||
| And You know, at one end, you've got a few seats, about 11 that President Trump won. | ||
| A lot of those, we've got locked up. | ||
| And you're going to start seeing the money move from making sure they win and start going lower on the chain as we cross our offensive deeper in the Democrat territory. | ||
| What I'm saying is we're looking at areas exactly right where, yep, Biden won by 15, 16, 17 even, where, you know, we looked at there might be opportunities as we get closer and we're going to begin to start spending absolutely. | ||
| If you are a Democrat, I know the DNC is going to be watching this. | ||
| And you're in an area that you only won by 15 points. | ||
| You're definitely an endangered, vulnerable Democrat, no doubt about it. | ||
| One thing before I go to Barris, one more, I just got to bring up. | ||
| People, uh, the, the, the team over there does not get a big enough shout out for what you did in 2020. | ||
| I think it's historic. | ||
| You were net 14 or net 12, uh, congressional seats in, in, in the eve of the election. | ||
| Remember they were predicting Pelosi is going to pick up anywhere, I think from four to six seats. | ||
| So I think it was a net 12 or the net 14, which is kind of historic. | ||
| Obviously our theory of the case, it was stolen. | ||
|
unidentified
|
It was a net 15 seats. | |
| 11 of them were Republican women. | ||
| You know, my boss, Congressman Stefanik, supported. | ||
| Actually, I will never forget it. | ||
| I was sitting on the election night room with Elise Stefanik, and Fox News said, I mean, 9 p.m. | ||
| election night, that Nancy Pelosi is going to hold 15 seats or whatever, expand. | ||
| And so they were off by 30, which is significant. | ||
| But real quick, one of the most important things, all the people are so energized. | ||
| And, you know, the most energized voter, and Morning Consult did an article on this months back, but it still holds true today. | ||
| The most energized voter, the most energized subset of voter, is the voter that believes the election was stolen in 2020. | ||
| Our people are energized. | ||
| The key is going to be get five friends, get ten friends, dig deep and get them to the polls. | ||
| In person, of course. | ||
| That's the purpose of today's show and the kickoff to this with you on here is to make sure that everybody's a force multiplier. | ||
| Let me go to Richard Burris quickly because, remember, two things to do here is kind of the nomenclature, make sure you understand how this polling fits in, the status and the dynamics, the really critical path. | ||
| Richard, I just want to go to the pre-Labor Day period because I think your polling showed the same thing. | ||
| The Democrats took their shot. | ||
| They knew they had to move early. | ||
| They took their shot. | ||
| But do you agree with Alex? | ||
| It didn't, it, they didn't, they didn't have, forget a knockout punch. | ||
| They didn't really even land a good punch. | ||
| It was a glancing blow, Richard Burris. | ||
| The glancing blow is a better way to characterize it. | ||
| It's the summertime. | ||
| People are going on vacations. | ||
| They're not really locking their views in. | ||
| I'll tell you when a lot of those views do lock in, Steve. | ||
| Before the summer. | ||
| That's the truth of it. | ||
| That's why George W. Bush, you know, 4, was so smart to define Kerry as a Northeastern liberal going into April and, you know, May of that year because people tune out and Republicans stop picking up the phone. | ||
| And Democrats are just high interest all through that time period. | ||
| They have a lot of money. | ||
| They outspent Republicans through the summer. | ||
| And now we're into Labor Day again. | ||
| I'm stunned by the number of registered voter polls that we're still seeing, which is intentional. | ||
| And I think, you know, your prior guest, he's going over all of this polling data, but the issues do make up the election. | ||
| Elections are decided by fundamentals. | ||
| They're not decided by news cycles. | ||
| And basically, you know, going into the summer, Republicans had all of these top, you know, let's call it four out of five top issues. | ||
| They had them riding in their favor the entire year. | ||
| Then we go into the summer and we had, you know, distortion, what I would really call distortion. | ||
| And now we're post Labor Day. | ||
| People are starting to pay attention again. | ||
| And they're saying to themselves, what has been the storm in my side all year? | ||
| Oh, that's right. | ||
| It was inflation or maybe certain subset of Metro voters. | ||
| I don't like the crime rate that I'm seeing. | ||
| This has all been on their side this whole time, and they're just going to be reminded by it as long as Republicans campaign on them. | ||
| They're going to be reminded. | ||
| And again, it's a first-term incumbent midterm. | ||
| I'm stunned by all these forecasters and supposed analysts pretending as if George W. Bush isn't the one and only modern example of a first-term incumbent not getting shellacked going into this first one. | ||
| So, you know, even at George, uh, even, excuse me, even at Joe Biden's approval ticked up in some of these districts and states where there are battleground Senate races, he ticked up from abysmal to just shy of abysmal. | ||
| And, and he got some voters that I think that the prior guest was right. | ||
| We saw that a crack in his foundation, his base, uh, before the summer. | ||
| And they came back to him a little bit, but that, that did not get him. | ||
| Uh, you know, back on in good standing with independence. | ||
| It did not get the independence on their side. | ||
| And when we get into this a little bit more, we just pulled Nevada and the Silver State. | ||
| Look at, I don't want to go out of order here, but I did this on purpose. | ||
| Look at the issues by party. | ||
| What do these people care about? | ||
| Abortion, the rise of abortion is being driven, whether it's national polling we're doing or state level polling, it's being driven by their own voter. | ||
| The independence, they don't care. | ||
| They just don't. | ||
| I mean, that's what, you know, to try to sum it up, Steve. | ||
| Hang on a second. | ||
| I want to get back to you on Nevada for a second. | ||
| I want to go back. | ||
| Alex, to Richard's point, the suppression polls, because I know, and it took, by the way, it takes a lot of courage to sit there and go, we're going to hold our fire. | ||
| We're going to hold our fire. | ||
| We're going to hold our fire to after Labor Day, right? | ||
| Particularly, we see all the news stories and the news cycle, and they're saying, hey, Biden's getting more popular. | ||
| He's had so many successes. | ||
| But talk about that, these national polls and these kind of suppression polls versus you guys are really looking at the battlegrounds themselves and at the district yourselves and how the needle is being moved in there. | ||
| Alex Degrassi. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Oh, that's exactly right, Steve. | |
| So when you look at the national polling, right, they're taking a lot of these big cities. | ||
| That's not necessarily where we're competing. | ||
| Some of that gets factored in at some of the Senate races where you've got, you know, Las Vegas, different things. | ||
| But, you know, we're looking at. | ||
| Individual battleground by battleground. | ||
| We're looking at these target seats. | ||
| It's 74 seats. | ||
| It goes very deep. | ||
| And, you know, again, these registered polls, like he said, totally a scam. | ||
| And you need to look at who's likely to vote, of course. | ||
| And we have a significant enthusiasm gap. | ||
| And so when we looked at 350 polls that we did in our battleground seats, For the last four months, we maintain a double-digit advantage on voters that say they are, at 10 out of 10, enthusiastic to go vote. | ||
| And so that really means that we've got the ability to really blow it out. | ||
| Of course, for the viewers that aren't in the weeds, obviously, on how it's done, when you poll, you have to predict the electorate, right? | ||
| So maybe you look at 35% Republicans, You know, 30% independence, you know, whatever. | ||
| Democrats write an equal 100. | ||
| It's all different everywhere, depending on the registration. | ||
| But if we're able to juice our numbers like President Trump did in 2016, then we'll get real, real deep, even deeper than we're talking about here on this call. | ||
| And that really is what the Democrats are worried about. | ||
| That's why they're trying to suppress, prick, divide, and confuse people by thinking that there's some type of red mirage. | ||
| It's a total scam. | ||
| They are in panic mode in free fall. | ||
| We've got 40 million more dollars between our Republican leadership, Democrat leadership and the NRCC and the DCCC. | ||
| And all of that is laying down now, and it's unlike anything people have seen before in politics, honestly. | ||
| I want to, I want to go to something before break. | ||
| Got about two minutes. | ||
| We may not finish. | ||
| We'll take it over. | ||
| But is this also show with the redistricting strategy? | ||
| Because one of the, there's the redistricting strategy. | ||
| Hey, what we try to try to do here is maybe get some seats that are safer with that. | ||
| We're not going to put money in at the last second. | ||
| And then we'll have powder dry and be able to use it on that. | ||
| Is that where you're seeing some of the redistricting strategy that came in early on? | ||
| Let's get some safe seats or let's get some, let's get some seats. | ||
| We don't have to put, you know, so much money into, and that leaves you with the ability to actually put lead on the target when it comes down to the home stretch. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yeah, absolutely. | |
| So when you look at Texas, Steve, I believe we spent about $20 million defending He's in Texas last cycle. | ||
| This cycle, we're spending $0 and we're actually digging deep on some of those Biden 15. | ||
| Look at Myra Forrest's seat, where we have her in a incredibly strong position to be reelected in the seat that Biden won very overwhelmingly in that new drawn map. | ||
| And we're on offense in Texas. | ||
| And so we're able to move some of our money, like you said, and go deep. | ||
| And so that didn't really get talked to the media a lot. | ||
| The media talked about, you know, You know, different issues where we had maps overturned by activist Democrat judges. | ||
| But the reality is redistricting went great for us because we are in a position to dig really deep. | ||
| We're playing a lot less defense. | ||
| Real quick, 80% of the money that the Republican Party is spending is on offense. | ||
| 80% of the Democrat money is on defense. | ||
| And that alone tells you everything you need to know about this cycle, essentially. | ||
| The media won't talk about that. | ||
| Okay, we're gonna take a short commercial break here in War Room Battleground. | ||
| We're gonna return with Alex Degrassi. | ||
| He is the executive director of Team Elise. | ||
| That's Stefanik's political team. | ||
| It works obviously very closely with the NRCC. | ||
| Walking us through this incredible, climactic battle for the House of Representatives. | ||
| And we said the House is everything here. | ||
| Also, of course, Richard Barris, the People's Pundit. | ||
| We're going to return in just a moment here in War Room Battleground. | ||
|
unidentified
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War Room Battleground with Stephen K. Bannon. | |
| Okay, welcome back. | ||
| Look, I want to make sure the audience understands something. | ||
| I say this about 16, that the first guy I reached out to was Reince Priebus. | ||
| You know, you gotta win in a coalition, right? | ||
| But victory, there is no substitute for victory. | ||
| Uh, this, what we're trying to in this introductory kind of kickoff is to say, this is a convergence of a lot of things. | ||
| This is, this is a redistricting strategy, right? | ||
| That, that we were very involved in and getting people fired up. | ||
| There was a redistricting in part. | ||
| One of the things people thought through is said, Hey, maybe we get more safer seats and then leave these, these seats at the end of the day, when you're having the run-up. | ||
| You can really put resources and back off right and put them on defense. | ||
| The other is the issue set and I think at least the phonics done a tremendous job the messaging from the Republican conference and put these things through and now you're seeing as we're coming down on border security and immigration and inflation in the economy. | ||
| These are the top of people's minds. | ||
| Remember, when you start thinking about that, that is six months to a year ago. | ||
| That's also converging. | ||
| That takes the thought of, hey, where is this going to go? | ||
| How is this going to play out? | ||
| The other is obviously in the primaries and the candidate selection, these tough primaries. | ||
| Just put it all in back of you after you finish. | ||
| Everybody unite. | ||
| What Alex just said, the most fired up people, voters, have been mocked and ridiculed. | ||
| The people that said, the War Room posse say, this thing was stolen in 2020. | ||
| We're going to get this back in 2022 and we're going to start making some changes, okay? | ||
| That also plays into it. | ||
| Also, the confidence that you're on the right track. | ||
| When they're putting up ads all July and August and you hear the donors and people getting nervous and they're seeing the New York Times saying it's closing, they're going to lose it. | ||
| It was a red tsunami, now it's a red puddle. | ||
| Politico's got it every day. | ||
| The courage of your convictions to say, we got the right issue set, they're going to take their best shot, but they're not going to put us away, and then we're going to hit them with everything we got, you know, guns unsheathed, starting after Labor Day. | ||
| That's kind of the convergence you're seeing now, and that's what people are talking about. | ||
| Hey, there may be more seats in play than people previously Imagine off of a higher base. | ||
| Remember, we just did net 15 in 2020 off a much higher base. | ||
| One thing before I go to Barris has done some polling in Wisconsin, Nevada. | ||
| I wanted to go through that I think reinforces this is Alex. | ||
| This is key. | ||
| And I think this makes donors, particularly small donors. | ||
| Know that, hey, if I'm gonna hit you with a $50 bill, it's going on offense. | ||
| Right now, you're saying 80% of the resources for Democrats are in defense and 80% of the resources going to Republican candidates are on offense. | ||
| Can you explain, take a minute and explain that? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Absolutely, Steve. | |
| So if you look at where the ads are up between the two main Republican spending groups on the House side, the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund with House Republican Leadership, we are spending Massively on offense, like I said, 80%. | ||
| We are digging really, really deep. | ||
| We could get to some of those seats, but it's so important for people to think about donating because here's some real weed stuff. | ||
| We were talking, Steve, that we all love the weeds here. | ||
| When you give that money directly to candidates, which is the best way to do it, candidates that you support, candidates that are in these target seats, They can run hybrid ads with the NRCC. | ||
| They can run coordinated ads. | ||
| That money is needed for us to match them and we could buy at a candidate rate, much cheaper. | ||
| We have figured out as a Republican Party how to do that. | ||
| It's so important that if you're able to, to give to our targeted Republican seats, because we are able to match them and buy the TV commercials at a candidate rate. | ||
| And we are now opening up on that front. | ||
| It's essentially like a third front. | ||
| And it's really doing a number on these Democrats. | ||
| Not only are we hammering them into the ground, but we are getting our message out about what we're going to do and educating voters on who our candidates are at a record pace. | ||
| Wow. | ||
| Hang on for one second. | ||
| I want to go to Richard. | ||
| Walk us through, take a couple minutes, walk us through, your polling just came out this week on Wisconsin. | ||
| And then let's start with Nevada. | ||
| Things are recent. | ||
| Then talk about Wisconsin. | ||
| Yeah, let's do Nevada. | ||
| Nevada, if we have the graphic for the Senate, this poll ruffled a few feathers. | ||
| But the truth is, you said something in the beginning of this entire segment, and you said that Democrats were banking on the educated woman and Republicans were banking on the working class Hispanic. | ||
| Nevada right now is reminding me, and you'll remember this, it's reminding me of a little bit of the conversations we had before 2020. | ||
| Where I told you places like Duval, typically Republican, were getting a little bit more Democratic, but that was all right because Trump was going to make it up in places like Miami-Dade, where this working class Hispanic coalition was shifting away from Democrats. | ||
| And everybody thought I was crazy, you remember. | ||
| And then, of course, he won 46% of the vote in Miami-Dade on election night and walked away with 200,000 extra votes. | ||
| That is what Adam Laxalt looks like he's doing in Clark County, Nevada. | ||
| He's made a tremendous effort to reach out And he's got every leg of the Republican coalition. | ||
| Trump's base loves laxalt. | ||
| He's also got the more, uh, you know, moderate voter who was a little bit, you know, uh, iffy on Trump. | ||
| And he's got the very typical, uh, traditional establishment voter. | ||
| He's got all three legs of the Republican party and it's working for him. | ||
| We have him up by about two points, but a lot less undecideds, uh, than we saw in the governor's race, but you could see it there. | ||
| It's a very working class state. | ||
| Democrats do well with working class voters in this state. | ||
| You know, people always say that Republicans are overrepresented in the polling in Nevada. | ||
| It's one of the only states that's the case. | ||
| Not with us. | ||
|
unidentified
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It's not. | |
| We had Hillary leading in that state three and a half points and we actually overestimated her a little bit. | ||
| In 2020, I didn't even want to poll it because I was suspicious that it was really going to be competitive and it ended up much closer than anybody thought it was going to be. | ||
| Laxalt has, he was smart. | ||
| He recognized this trend. | ||
| When we broke it down by union, he was actually winning the private sector union vote. | ||
| He was losing the public sector union vote, which overall was a little bit better. | ||
| So, I do think blacks are right now slightly favored to take this seat, which would be a pick-up for Republicans, of course. | ||
| Now, you have the governor's graph up too, we can go over real quick. | ||
| Lombardo has a similar two-point lead, but it is lower. | ||
| This is a little bit different. | ||
| Well, Lombardo is doing a little bit better in Washoe County, not doing as well in Clark County, so there's a bit of a trade-off. | ||
| He reminds me a little bit more of more traditional, whereas Laxalt gets a lot more of that Trump coalition. | ||
| But again, with all of, you know, the large lion's share of the undecided vote disapproving of the job Joe Biden's doing, it's going to be tough for Sisolak and other Democratic governors to convince these people, I'm at 42, 43%, vote for me anyway, give me another term. | ||
| It's going to be tough, Steve, historically, very, very difficult. | ||
| We can move on to Wisconsin, but again, people were, you know, 20 point lead. | ||
| For Adam Laxalt, among independents, is exactly what Republicans need to do. | ||
| And it used to be, the equation used to be, either tie in Washoe County or win it back, or tighten the margin in Clark. | ||
| I think with the shift in Hispanic vote, Laxalt's, you know, one of the candidates leading the way doing this, the equation has changed. | ||
| You can lose Washoe if those educated voters go against you, because Clark is 70% of the vote. | ||
| So if you outperform in Clark County, And you run up those rural margins, Douglas, elk, right? | ||
| All those. | ||
| You're going to win it. | ||
| You're going to win it. | ||
| The equation changes the math totally. | ||
| When you bring these cost of living You know, voters in the mix. | ||
| You bring these economy and jobs voters in. | ||
| They're Hispanic, Steve. | ||
| Before you go to Wisconsin, I want to go back to the House side for a second, to Alex. | ||
| When you see a guy like Adam Laxalt, Alex Degrassi, up by 20 on independents, Is that because the issue set, is that the derivation of the, you know, border security 36, crime 23? | ||
| You got such big spreads because you've messaged right, you've picked the right issues in the electorate. | ||
| And now you're seeing, and this is, is this where you're seeing Hispanics and independents start to come to the Republican side? | ||
| Is that, is that how you, is that how Adam Laxalt's up 20 points by an independents? | ||
|
unidentified
|
That's exactly right. | |
| And when you look at our battlegrounds, we essentially have those same numbers up by about 19, 20% in a lot of areas with independents. | ||
| And it's because the independent voters' issue set matches what our Republican candidates are fighting for. | ||
| It matches, you know, our issue set. | ||
| And when you have a situation where the independents are aligned with Republicans in terms of what they care about, that's when, and the Democrats aren't talking to them, they're essentially ceding that territory to us. | ||
| It's really malpractice, like no one's really seen before, honestly. | ||
| I don't actually understand what they're doing, to be honest. | ||
| And the reason is, independents are not partisan. | ||
| They're not particularly ideological. | ||
| They may even be closer to some of the lower information voters. | ||
| They just live in their lives. | ||
| They're not really that engaged with it. | ||
| So when you have the issue set that we have, crime, immigration, economy, Inflation. | ||
| That is people's daily lives. | ||
| It's not these things, even some of the cultural issues like abortion or whatever. | ||
| Is that what you're seeing? | ||
| Is that reinforced this kind of, quite frankly, shocking spread you're seeing both in the House and in Barrister's Senate of independents looking like they're going to not just vote, but turn out and vote for Republican candidates? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yeah, that's exactly right. | |
| And then when you really look at the independents, one of the most important demographics is, you know, this pro-choice voter, but they care more about The economy. | ||
| They care more about crime. | ||
| They might be pro-choice in belief, but they're not opposed to Republicans. | ||
| And so the Democrats are throwing all this egg, all their eggs into this, you know, abortion crisis situation. | ||
| But there's a lot of voters out there. | ||
| When you look at these polls that Politico and NBC are putting up, and they say the country's, you know, 55% pro-abortion, this or that, it's all misinformation. | ||
| When you look at it, voters might be pro-choice, but they care a lot more about their grocery bills, crime skyrocketing, and different things like that. | ||
| We are honing in on that subset, educating voters, and we are doing very well with that group, and it's part of the reason why Laxo and others are in such strong positions as we head into October. | ||
| When you talk about intensity of voters, and that's in midterms, obviously, guys not at the top of the ticket, but the intensity of voters, particularly people that are still burning with passion on what happened in 3 November 2020, and you're saying that's one of the big drivers. | ||
| The Democrats went overboard with this anti-democracy, the J6. | ||
| Are you seeing in the, in the congressional side, I'll go to Richard in a second, any traction of that, that that's moving voters to turn out or voters to vote on that topic, sir? | ||
|
unidentified
|
No, certainly the only people talking about that are the hyper-pensity MSNBC, CNN watching Democrats that are sitting there and sort of consuming that all day long. | |
| When you get out into the field and I spend a lot of time out there with the voters, That's really, it's a non-issue, and they have totally blew it. | ||
| In fact, they're actually really helping our people dig deep and work extra hard as volunteers, local committee members, because this guy got on TV and called everyone semi-fascist. | ||
| People haven't, I mean, it's getting crazy out there, as you know, Steve, and everyone watching, and our folks are digging in real deep, like we've never seen before. | ||
| I mean, I think about just at least the Phonics District, we have like over 10,000 people Reaching out to us that are begging for lawn signs. | ||
| I mean, it's just like crazy energy on the ground among our people. | ||
| We can't even keep up with the amount of signs that people want to put out on their lawn to show support for a lease and the Republicans in general. | ||
| I mean, that's happening everywhere. | ||
| When you say malpractice, are you saying that the Morning Mikas and the Joanne Reeds and the Rachel Maddows and that Washington, you know, the Washington, New York, Boston, Acela Corridor elites, their issue set was theirs in that bubble, didn't play in the country, they didn't do the work to do it, and now they're jammed up at the last second? | ||
| Is that when you say that there's this, you call it malpractice? | ||
|
unidentified
|
That's exactly right. | |
| They have dissociated from essentially the rest of the country. | ||
| They're off Sort of talking, I guess, La La Land and, you know, independent voters, Republican voters, and a significant amount of Democrat voters are looking for solutions on the crisis facing the country, not this whole, you know, abortion crisis and things like that. | ||
| Like we showed the slide earlier, 36% of voters are looking for, you know, an abortion candidate. | ||
| And that's mostly the Democrat base when you look at a lot of these seats. | ||
| And so, A vast majority of voters are looking for the candidate that's going to challenge the cost of living. | ||
| And again, that was taken by NBC. | ||
| A lot more Democrats in the poll. | ||
| Our numbers are even stronger than what NBC has, so we feel good about it. | ||
| Because NBC waited to Democrats. | ||
| Let me go back to Richard Barish. | ||
| Richard, you just came out with Wisconsin, I think, early in the week. | ||
| Walk us through Wisconsin. | ||
| Yeah, if we have that one, we could throw that up. | ||
| I think this goes to being able to return fire. | ||
| Ron Johnson took a beating. | ||
|
unidentified
|
This reminds me a little bit about what we saw in 2016, Steve. | |
| We only had Ron Johnson ahead by about two points in 2016. | ||
| We have him up by about three now. | ||
| a chance to return fire. This reminds me a little bit about what we saw in 2016, Steve. | ||
| We only had Ron Johnson ahead by about two points in 2016. | ||
| We have him up by about three now. Again, going to these issues, the only issue that Mandela Barnes leans on is the abortion issue. Of the other top four most important issues, which by the way were cost of living inflation, the economy and jobs, and then immigration. We had crime right after that, and on that as well, Ron Johnson leads. So if you pick those as your most important issue, you're voting for Ron Johnson. | ||
| He's doing fantastic. | ||
| But the difference this time, I think, between what we saw in 2016 is that he's also doing very well in the northwestern part of the state, right south of Ashland and Bayfield. | ||
| I go to this all the time with people in Wisconsin because this is how pollsters miss Wisconsin. | ||
| That Obama-Walker-Trump voter Just south of the birth of the progressive movement, which now loves Trump, and you have all those working class counties over there, and they're considered the Northwest, but they're not heavily populated, and they're difficult to poll, and people miss them all the time. | ||
| Ron Johnson is getting that on top of. | ||
| What other Republican candidates who have been able to piece together a coalition get? | ||
| So it reminds me a little bit more of maybe let's say Walker's reelection coalition when he was reelected during the recall ballpark in that area. | ||
| And even though there's still four and a half percent that are undecided, look at how many of those voters again, Not just disapproved, but more than 50% of the four and a half who remain undecided for Senate, more than 50% strongly disapprove. | ||
| You think they're going to vote for Mandela Barnes? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Wow. | |
| That's not going to happen. | ||
| So Ron Johnson is in a strong position, Steve. | ||
| Strong position. | ||
| Richard, hang on for one second. | ||
| I want to go back to Alex for a second. | ||
| You guys are 100% obviously focused on these House races. | ||
| Is there, because the issue set and what you're seeing of how the Democrats took their shot and didn't have any knockout punches, and I understand you've got candidates of whether for governor or senator or maybe even House that may not be clicking, their campaigns not be working, but overall, Is this drive in the house, can this also with some of these governors and senators, it all pulls together and people just voting straight down the ticket and you end up, you know, one hand washes the other. | ||
| A strong governor helps a house race, a guy in the Senate, but you see these house races where it's all come together and you're putting money on driving their negatives up, which is really exposing them to actually what they've been doing, which is voting for Biden. | ||
| Is that one of the things that you guys are seeing or is that you believe could happen? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Absolutely. | |
| And I'll use Oregon as an example. | ||
| We've got a situation in Oregon where the Republican governors are pouring in. | ||
| You've got two Democrats running, one as an independent who's going to split the vote. | ||
| We're neck and neck, okay? | ||
| And Republicans are very excited because that's a blue state, very tough to win. | ||
| But typically, you know, what's the point of my vote? | ||
| We're never going to win. | ||
| No, no, no. | ||
| This time it's all on the line in Oregon. | ||
| A Republican governor, Portland heads are going to explode. | ||
| We have multiple top-targeted seats, and I want to use one example. | ||
| Oregon 5, Lori Chavez de Riemer, she's a Latino woman. | ||
| She was supported by Elise very early on through EPAC. | ||
| She now is surging. | ||
| The Democrats have pulled out. | ||
| Pete Schreider was a Democrat, liberal incumbent, and lost the primary to a far-left, of-out socialist, defund-the-police radical who wears it on her sleeve. | ||
| And we're polarizing her. | ||
| We're up by 10. | ||
| We're up by 5. | ||
| You know, we are winning in a landslide right outside Portland. | ||
| And so heads are exploding everywhere. | ||
| We've got multiple target seats in Oregon and there's areas where we're running real deep and people are having a meltdown about it. | ||
| And when you talk about the 80%, 20% where we're spending, when we start digging deep, the Dems are going to turn on each other and go ballistic because they're going to start cutting these guys out, cutting them loose. | ||
| And it's going to get crazy on their side when they are faced to make tough decisions on who to save and who to let go down on the battlefield. | ||
| Alex, we've got so much more to go through. | ||
| We're going to figure out how to do it. | ||
| This has been a great introductory. | ||
| First off, how do people get to Elyse, her campaign, you know, Team Elyse, and also how do they get to her social media and then yours also? | ||
|
unidentified
|
You go to ElyseForCongress.com. | |
| We need the money. | ||
| Her page, you know, Elise Stefanik, TruthGetter, Facebook, Twitter, all that. | ||
| Myself, Degrass81 on Twitter, TruthGetter, all of that. | ||
| We need the money. | ||
| The money that gets sent to Elise's campaign account, you can check the FEC website. | ||
| We shovel that right out the door directly to candidates that matter, directly to the party and target areas. | ||
| And that money goes into the general fund and we're able to buy that candidate rate, which is critical as opposed to a super PAC that has to spend at a much higher rate for TV ads. | ||
| So we've got the real smart tactics. | ||
| We appreciate it. | ||
| Everyone's doing what an honor to be on and I appreciate it. | ||
| So once again, where do people go? | ||
| If people want to find out more about this and potentially donate and to get more information, where do they go? | ||
|
unidentified
|
You can go to NRCC.org would be another one. | |
| They've got the map. | ||
| They've got what seats we're targeting. | ||
| You can make donations directly to our targeted candidates. | ||
| They've got, you can kind of click, you know, where you want to go. | ||
| We've got 74 targeted seats. | ||
| And just real quickly, you know, 3 of them are in areas that Trump won by 10%. | ||
| We only need 5. | ||
| There's the chart. | ||
| We can get that bigger if possible. | ||
| But, you know, 6 of them are in areas that Trump won between 5 to 10. | ||
| Seven of them between zero to five. | ||
| We feel great about all those and it goes real deep down to Biden plus over 10% and a lot of those are open seats in that Biden plus 10 because the Democrats have abandoned their district because they know they're going down. | ||
| Alex Degrassi, thank you very much. | ||
| Honored to have you on here. | ||
| Fantastic presentation. | ||
| First of many, I'm sure. | ||
| Richard, you've been out. | ||
| You've got other polling that's going to come out. | ||
| How do people get to the People's Pundit? | ||
| How do they get to your Locals? | ||
| Best place to follow me is on Locals. | ||
| It's peoplespundit.locals.com. | ||
| And, I mean, basically you can find everything there. | ||
| The Nevada poll, that was done through the Public Polling Project, but that's always shared on Locals as well. | ||
| And I'm on Truth and Getter at People's Pundit, and on Twitter at People's Underscore Pundit, but Locals really is the collective of it all, Steve. | ||
| People's Pundit dot Locals dot com. | ||
| With doing CD Media and Big Data, people just want to know, you're going to be dropping other states as we go on. | ||
| I know you've done three, two before Labor Day, a couple, three after Labor Day. | ||
| Can people expect more of these battleground states to come out, Richard Burris? | ||
| Yes, they can. | ||
| For both CD Media and for Locals. | ||
| We're going to do Arizona. | ||
| We're going to do Georgia again. | ||
| It's keep, stay tuned. | ||
| Richard Barris. | ||
| You're fantastic. | ||
| The people's pundit. | ||
| Okay. | ||
| Uh, we're going to be back tomorrow morning at 10 o'clock. | ||
| I hope this got you jacked up because it's all come together, but it all depends on you. | ||
| This is all about you. |
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