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Aug. 21, 2025 - The Ben Shapiro Show
01:01:21
Democratic Party BLEEDING Voters!
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A new study shows the Democratic Party absolutely bleeding voters.
Plus, Gavin Newsom is making his 2028 run.
And for some reason, Cracker Barrel is changing its logo.
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Well, President Trump has basically broken the Democratic Party at this point.
And that is not just a matter of opinion.
That is a matter of actual voter registration fact.
There's a fascinating new piece out from the New York Times by Shane Goldmacher and Jonah Smith, all about the Democratic Party facing what they're calling a voter registration crisis.
Now, of course, the New York Times, a very left-wing publication, but when even the New York Times is noting that Democrats have a massive voter registration problem, that means it's a massive voter registration problem.
And the data here is good data.
According to these columnists, the Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
Of the thirty states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between 2020 and 2024, often by a lot.
That four year swing toward the Republicans adds up to four point five million voters.
A deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out of.
So where is that happening?
Well, it's happening everywhere.
Battleground states, blue states, red states, according to an analysis of voter registration data by the New York Times.
Few measurements reflect the lustre of a party's brand, says the New York Times, better than voter registration, and right now the Democrats are losing it for the first time since 2018.
More new voters nationwide chose to be Republicans than Democrats last year.
Now, I know that the tendency on the part of the right for this sort of stuff is to be incredibly celebratory.
It should be remembered that in 2018, Republicanans didn't do amazing in the 2018 midterms and then they lost the 2020 elections.
So things can shift fast, but Democrats are in trouble.
All told, Democrats lost about 2.1 million registered voters between 2020 and 2024 in those 30 states and Republicans gained 2.4 million.
There are still more Democrats who are registered nationwide than Republicans because California allows people to register by party.
Texas does not, but the trajectory is really, really bad.
So for example, election day 2020, Democrats had an eleven percentage point edge over Republicans.
And now that is a six point edge in 2024.
Michael Pruiser, who does data.
science for decision desk headquarters says, I don't want to say the death cycle of the Democratic Party, but there seems to be no end to this.
There's no silver lining.
There's no cavalry coming across the hill.
This is month after month, year after year.
This is true in battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Top Democratic strategists say the party's nationwide registration decline is hidden in plain sight crisis that has to be reversed before 2028.
In 2018, Democrats accounted for 34 percent of new voter registrations nationwide.
Republicans were only 20 percent.
By 2024, Republicans had overtaken Democrats among new voter registrants.
Now, one of the big problems here.
here for the Democrats is that they banked on a multiracial coalition in opposition to basically white Americans.
That was the way they did voter registration.
If they were doing a voter registration drive, they would go into heavily minority areas, just sign up everybody and assume all of those people were going to be Democrats.
And it's not working anymore.
That's not according to me.
That's according to the New York Times, for years, the left has relied on a sprawling network of nonprofits, which solicit donations from people whose identities they need not disclose to register black, Latino, and younger voters.
Though the groups are technically nonpartisan, the underlying assumption has been that most new voters registering would vote Democratic.
Trump has uended that calculation with the inroads he made among working class non-white voters.
According to one expert, Maria Cardona, who is a long time member of the DNC, she says you can't just register a young Latino or young black voter and assume they're going to know it's Democrats that have the best policies.
So what exactly are they to do?
Well, again, they have a massive problem because that multiracial coalition is now growing on the Republican side of the aisle.
This, by the way, is one of the reasons why the Republican Party should not move in the sort of identitarian direction that is being pushed by some on the right because it's it's very bizarre as the Republican Party turns less identitarian in terms of its voting base.
There are people in the Republican Party who want to turn more identitarian in terms of the Republican ideology, which makes zero sense at all.
Picking up Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas is a good thing.
And driving those Hispanic voters away by sort of ethnic based appeals to white voters is really dumb.
I don't think that's what President Trump is doing.
I don't think that's what the Republican Party broadly is doing.
But there are certain people in the Republican Party who are doing this routine, and it's really stupid.
I mean, forget about being morally wrong.
It is also incredibly politically dumb.
Right now, according to the New York Times, the Democratic Party has diminished appeal to men and younger voters.
In 2018, Democrats accounted for 66% of new voters under 45 who registered with one of the two major parties.
By 2024, that number had dropped to 48 percent.
So Republicans went from roughly one third of newly registered voters under 45 to a majority in the last six years.
Male voters particularly are falling out of the Democratic orbit.
Nearly 49 percent of men newly registered with a major party chose the Democrats in 2020.
By 2024, that figure was down to 39 percent.
And by the way, it's happening among women as well.
So what exactly should Democrats do?
Well, it seems that their plan is to be radical but ethnic.
They're not going to moderate in any way.
They're not going to move away from the sort of left-wing sociology professor politics that they've embraced for so long, but they're going to pretend that it's just a messaging problem, not an actual policy problem.
They're going to slap some sort of ethnic face on the radicalism and hope that that works.
This presumably is the logic of people like philanthropist Elizabeth Simons, who's the daughter of the late billionaire hedge fund investor Jamie Simons, who just donated 250 grands to the pro-Zorin Mom Dani superpack New Yorkers for lower costs.
So you've got these sions of billionaires who are giving money to ethnically diverse wild leftists.
Now again, these are people who grew up in wealth who are now trying to, I assume, alleviate their socialist guilt by giving money to, again, another scion of privilege and wealth, Zoran Mamdani who pretends that what he really is about is the little people.
Mamdani, of course, has said there should not be billionaires, but he is happy to take money from them apparently.
In just a moment, we will get to the Democratic Party.
Have they shifted from a party of sort of broader ideas to an ethnic solidarity party?
It's not working for them.
It's broken.
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Meanwhile, again, the goal for the Democratic Party is to continue to say radical things, but apparently they believe that ethnic identity and ethnic solidarity are more important than actual ideas.
And so you have Mayor Karen Bass, who's out there calling the homeless in Los Angeles unhoused Angelinos.
But of course, she's a member of an ethnic minority and therefore what?
This sounds better coming from her than it would come from an upper class white liberal lady.
It doesn't, by the way, to the residents of Los Angeles.
The weather service has issued the extreme heat warning in the region beginning Thursday.
through Saturday with temperatures expected to reach as high as 108 in the San Fernando Valley, these temperatures could be dangerous, especially for our most vulnerable residents, children, pets, people who work outside, unhoused Angelinos and those with certain health conditions.
Unhoused Angelinos.
I mean, this is the kind of radicalism democrats have continued to embrace.
Or what about democratic representative Delia Ramirez from Illinois?
She actually makes the claim that deporting illegal immigrants is unconstitutional, which is insane, of course.
What is happening right now under Department of Homeland Security is unconstitutional..
It is actually unaccountable and it's against the law.
Well, again, this kind of radicalism does not play.
These are luxury beliefs as Rob Henderson has suggested.
So what are the Democrats going to do?
Well, if they're smart, what they're going to do is they're going to campaign among the base as radicals and then they're going to swivel toward the middle in terms of policy.
And that seems to be the approach of Gavin Newsom.
Gavin Newsom is an incredibly calculating politician.
Again, I think that his affect is quite smarmy.
I think that when it comes to the way that he presents it to the world, it is lizard person.
However, what he's doing right now is is smart.
He's trying to present as radical to his base while going to donors and saying, actually, I'm kind of a political moderate.
Which again, that's a smart play.
So what has he been doing?
Well, he's been posturing mostly.
Apparently, he's determined to troll his way to the top of social media simply by ripping on President Trump.
He understands that for the Democratic base, the thing that matters most is yelling at Trump.
It's not policy.
It's not trans issues.
It's yelling at Trump.
According to Politico, with an inescapable smash mouth, all caps laden, meme filled X account, California governor Gavin Newsom is holding a mirror up to MAGA and MAGA doesn't like what it sees.
There's Newsom.
I'm now Rushmore.
There's Newsom getting prayed over by Tucker Carlson, Kid Rock, and an angelic winged Hulk Hogan.
There's Newsom posting in all caps saying his mid cycle redistricting proposal has led many people to call him Gavin Christopher Columbus Newsom because of the maps.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
So Steve Bannon, who of course is always quoted by the media, you can always count on Steve to find his way into a political article for someone who supposedly despises the legacy media.
That dude gets quoted by the legacy media routinely.
He is on speed dial for them.
Quote, he's trying to mimic President Trump.
He's no Trump, but if you look at the Democratic Party, he's at least getting up there and he's trying to imitate a Trumpian vision of fighting, right?
He looks like the only person in the Democratic Party who is organizing a fight that they feel they can win.
Michelle Obama famously advised Democrats to live by a dictum when they go low, we go high.
Newsom has approached it a bit differently.
When they go low, we go low and backed by lots of AI generated slop, end up high in the algorithm.
So Gavin Newsom was asked about this, actually, and he explains why he shifted tactics from going high to going low.
I think it connects here in LA and the fires.
And how he was completely misrepresenting the facts, misinformation, disinformation.
Elon Musk was piling on as well.
I'm really angry that he spoke to you then.
No, I just am.
Yeah, because I've never seen anything like it in the middle of emergency.
All the lies, all the misrepresentations, all the untruths.
And they became gospel and they were spread around the world.
And it was a big wake-up call.
And we got back on our feet and we got back on the offense.
And then when the National Guard was federalized, what the hell is going on?
You saw ICE out here today.
You know what that is?
That is a preview for things to come.
Mark my word.
I said this a couple months ago with the National Guard.
I said that was a preview for the rest of the country.
That's exactly what happened in Washington, D.C. So yes, I've changed.
The facts have changed.
We need to change.
And we need to stand up to this authoritarian.
We need to stand up at this moment.
It is foundational.
Again, it is not.
about Republican versus Democrat.
This guy is an invasive species.
He's completely different.
Trump is an invasive species, he says, and he's doing all the hand motions to show you how invasive President Trump is.
He's pretty wild.
He's doing some really good mime hands there.
He's trapped in the glass box but talking about politics.
In any case, Gavin Newsom is again doing this performative nonsense for the Democratic base, hoping it's going to jazz up the Democratic base.
And then watch, he's going to swivel in the actual election to a supposed moderation in policy.
That's why with his other hand, he's been doing interviews with right-wing influencers in an attempt to pose as moderate.
Again, this is smart.
I'm not sure it's going to work because it's really inauthentic, but it is smart.
and is a recognition for the Democrats that they do have a problem with the broader American public.
Their base wants Zoran Mandani.
The rest of the American public does not.
As I pointed out in the last election cycle over and over again, Donald Trump sees the middle ground on every single issue ranging from entitlements to foreign policy.
He sees the middle ground on issues like social issues, like abortion and trans.
And Democrats simply gave it away.
Well, they're going to have to move back toward the middle on policy, but they're first going to have to pose a lot.
They're going to have to do a lot of revolutionary posing.
And that is what Gavin Newsom has been doing in some pretty awkward ways, honestly, but it's the best democrats have at this point.
One manifestation of that yesterday.
Beyond Inc., which is the company that owns Bed Bath and Beyond, put out a statement from Marcus Lomanez, who's the executive chairman of Bed Bath and Beyond.
So Bed Bath and Beyond used to be a giant chain.
They started losing money.
They had to close a lot of their shops.
They went bankrupt.
I remember my wife and I used to go to a Bed Bath and Beyond pretty regularly.
It was located, I believe, the corner of Ventura and Whitsitt, if I recall correctly.
In any case, their new statement is quote, we will not open or operate retail stores in California.
This decision isn't about politics.
It's not about politics, it's about reality.
California has created one of the most over regulated, expensive and risky environments for businesses in America.
It's a system that makes it harder to employ people, harder to keep doors open, harder to deliver values to customers.
The result?
Higher taxes, higher fees, higher wages that many businesses simply cannot sustain, and endless regulations that strangle growth.
Even when the state announced a budget surplus, it's built on the backs of ordinary citizens who are paying too much and businesses who are cramped until they break.
At Bed Bath and Beyond, our responsibility is towards our customers and our shareholders.
We will not participate in a system that undermines both.
Instead, we are investing in a California strategy that works.
24 to 48 hour delivery and in many cases, same day service.
Californians will continue to get the products they leave, they love, through bedbathandbeyond dot com, but without the inflated costs created by an unsustainable business model.
We're taking a stand because it's time for common sense.
Businesses deserve the chance to succeed.
That's why Bed Bath and Beyond will serve California customers directly through their website on our terms with their best interests at heart.
Now, they are reopening stores in places like Nashville.
So how does Nick Gavin Newsom respond to that?
Because that's obviously a rip on his garbage business environment, which is a garbage business environment.
We literally took our company, Daily Wire, from California to Nashville and Florida in order to have a better business environment.
So I know exactly what Bed Bath and Beyond is talking about.
So what was Newsom's response?
It was trollery, of course.
He tweeted out the company that already went bankrupt and closed every store across the country two years ago.
Okay.
And then his press office, which is where he does most of his trolling, put out a statement quote, after their bankruptcy and closure of every store, like most Americans, we thought Bed, Bath and Beyond no longer existed.
We wish them well in their efforts to become relevant again as they tried to open a second store.
And so just ridiculous.
I mean, I'm sorry, just ridiculous.
You were one of the factors leading to them having to close stores.
And now you're celebrating that they're not opening stores in California.
So Marcus Lamanas then responded., quote, Dear Governor Gavin Newsom, I thought that your post would suggest we bring business leaders together to understand how to improve the four pillars, friction of business and find a way to make it better.
One, streamlined regulation, consistent, simplified compliance rules across state and local levels, two, balanced labor environment that's good for employees and employers, three, litigation reform, reducing abusive lawsuits while maintaining protection for workers, four, competitive tax and cost structure incentives to come as opposed to disincentives to leave.
Also, we bought the IP over two years ago and have built bedbath and beyond dot com into a billion dollar online business.
We will target opening three hundred small to midsized neighborhood stores through our Kirkland's investment.
You are a smart man.
I know the post below.
is out of frustration.
Okay, but again, Gavin Newsom is not interested in doing business with Bed, Bath and Beyond.
He's interested in the trollery that he thinks is going to lift him to the 2028 nomination.
According to Amy Parnas, writing for the Hill, Newsom has taken a page from Trump's playbook mirroring everything from the president's rants to his social media habits.
In recent days, the California governor has touted his own beautiful midterm redistricting proposal and his beautiful rally to boot, needling Trump's braggadocious ways.
Newsom has started to write his social media posts in all caps, just like the president.
And he's come up with his own Trumpy nickname for the president, Taco, short for Trump always chickens out, an acronym that originated on Wall Street in reaction to President Trump's moves on tariffs and is designed to annoy the White House.
And meanwhile, Democrats are really, really happy about that because again, the idea it's funny whenever a party loses, the idea seems to be from the party that they don't have to shift positionally.
It's all about the attitude that if you if you're just stronger and the resistance is stronger then you're going to if only you had more passion then you'd win.
Well, if you are losing in secular fashion across the country, perhaps the reason for that is because your policies aren't popular across the country.
But Democrats again, they are they're more interested in the excitement than they are in the actual political change.
Maybe at the end of this after he wins.
the nomination or something, Newsom shifts to the middle in an attempt to win a general, maybe.
But right now, that's not what democrats are excited about.
That's not going to get their voter registration numbers up.
But again, I think they are waiting for some sort of white knight to save them here.
Eric Swalwell, last seen with Chinese spy Fang Fang, he says that he loves it, he's super into it.
I freaking love what governor Newsom is doing because that's what offense looks like and we don't see enough democrats frankly doing that.
We have to be in more spaces, more places and always on to voters means always honest.
And Donald Trump for all his warts and all his corruption and incompetence, he's always on.
And so when he makes a mistake, he's on an hour later, two hours later, three hours later, and it diminishes how the public views him.
If we were always on with our ideas and our values, it will project authenticity and who we really are.
And so you're seeing governor Newsom, I think, most effectively do that.
Again, the key word for them is they're trying to be authentic.
Now the problem for them is that Newsom is very, very inauthentic just as a personality, very, very inauthentic person.
And so I think that's going to bleed through eventually.
But Democrats are going to continue to push the idea that radicalism equals authenticity.
Molly Jongfast, I don't know why you would use her on MSNBC as sort of the political guru.
But Molly Jongfast and both of her hair colors say that we need more Zoran Mamsani's and AOC's in the Democratic Party.
Voters want really their elected to fight for that.
Do Democrats feel betrayed by their elected?
I think, well, I think that's what those polling numbers are saying.
But that's to say, but you know, like people like Sharon Brown jumped into the race, raised $3.000 million in 24 hours.
Like there is support there.
The question is, it's only going to be for people who people who really feel authentic.
Right, sure, sure.
Like Sharer has never been afraid of a shadow.
Yeah, exactly.
He's spoken his mind.
Chris Murphy, Sharer Brown, Mandami, these people, AOC, they're not all exactly the same politically, but they are the same in the fact that they're brave and they break through.
Okay, so, you know, it's going to be fascinating to see if the Democratic Party can somehow recover from this death spiral that it is in.
The first thing they need to do is abandon their racialist approach to American politics.
It has been a disaster for them.
Again, the Democratic Party took the wrong path in 2012 when Barack Obama won reelection.
He won in 2008 in his original election based on the idea that all Americans should be treated similarly.
No, no white Americans, no black Americans, just Americans.
No red Americans, blue Americans, just Americans.
We're all Americans.
And then by 2012, it was, we're black Americans and we have some interests.
And then we're gay Americans.
They have some interests.
Latino Americans have, we'll give each of you something from the goodie jar and then we'll have a coalition.
And that was the basic idea of 2012.
And then he won and the Democratic Party has ever since been unable to shake the belief that demographically they were going to win if they just kept appealing to growing minorities in the United States.
And then President Trump came along and it turns out that nothing of that held.
Now we should have known that that wasn't going to hold forever because demographics are not in fact destiny in the United States.
Huge blocks of ethnic voters have moved from one party to the other over time.
Blacks used to be Republicans in the early 20th century, then they moved over to the Democratic Party during FDR tenure and then even further during the 1960s.
You saw the same thing happen with Irish voters, German voters, Italian voters, Jewish voters, actually, you have seen massive shifts based on the politics of the various parties.
Ethnic voters don't vote as blocks typically, they vote over time as individuals.
The most important thing in this respect has been the shift in the Latino vote that happened over the course of the last couple of election cycles toward President Trump.
Can democrats shake the idea that simply by making ethnic appeals they will win?
I don't know if they can.
I don't know.
It's a real problem for them.
The first thing they're going to have to shake if they want to do that is the kind of inside the Beltway luxury belief culture that they have cultivated.
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So yesterday there was a situation in which a bunch of members of the Trump administration headed on town to Shake Shack inside Union Station in order to presumably get lunch.
Now, let's be clear what was going on here.
The reason the vice president decides to go to Shake Shack is because they know the protesters are there.
Okay, this is not like this idea that suddenly the vice president and the defense secretary and the White House deputy chief of staff all decide to go out for lunch at Shake Shack of all places in Union Station.
They went there because they wanted to be heckled because they knew it would be a good photo.
And you know, good for them because the more you can demonstrate that the left has these luxury beliefs where fighting crime is somehow bad that the more you can demonstrate they're out of touch with ordinary people according to the wall street journal as these three members of the trump administration met with national guard personnel they were at times drowned out by nearby protesters who shouted free dc miller said we're going to ignore these stupid white hippies we all need to go home and take a nap here was miller going off stephen miller is he does not pull punches
that much can be said for stephen you're not going to let the communists destroy a great american city let alone the nation's capital and let's just also address one other another thing.
All these demonstrators that you've seen out here in recent days, all these elderly white hippies, they're not part of this city and never have been.
And by the way, most of the citizens living in Washington DC are black.
This is not a city that has had any safety for its black citizens for generations.
And President Trump is the one who is fixing that with the support of the Metropolitan Police Department, the support of the National Guard, and our federal law enforcement officers.
Okay, so.
He wasn't the only person who spoke here.
J.D. Vans, the vice president, also took the opportunity to talk about the people who were yelling at them.
People outside screaming Free DC.
Let's free DC from lawlessness.
Let's free Washington DC from one of the highest murder rates in the entire world.
Let's free Washington DC so that young families can walk around and feel safe and secure.
That's what we're trying to free DC from.
And as Steven said, it's kind of bizarre that we have a bunch of old, primarily white people who are out there protesting the policies that keep people safe when they've never felt danger in their entire lives.
Now notice again the multiracial appeal that JD Vance is making there.
He is saying to a bunch of older white people with luxury beliefs who are out there shouting about freeing Washington DC.
And of course, he is not wrong about that.
He is correct.
He also says that it's rather shameful that people are afraid to walk around Washington, D.C., thanks to the crime.
This is the national, cultural, and political capital of the world's greatest nation.
And you talk to people, black, brown, white, so many of them are afraid to bring their kids into public spaces.
It's a shame.
It's a blight.
It actually should make every American ashamed that the world's leading superpower, our national capital, was the world's greatest nation.
was unsafe for families to walk around at night that is a disgrace we don't think that it's acceptable and thank god we have president Now, I mean, we can actually try to count all the white people in the protest.
We have some footage of the crowd that was booing Vance and Hagseth as they entered DC's Union Station to not just get lunch, by the way, go visit the National Guard troops over there.
Here's what the video looked like.
Zane Z, here comes Vance.
Here comes Hagseth.
And that is indeed a lot of old white people.
Some reporters.
A lot of white people doing a lot of yelling.
In fact, the only black person I see in this whole picture is a cameraman.
So yeah, I mean again, if the Democratic Party's idea is old white people scream at JD Vance or Donald Trump or Pete Hagshaff, good luck to you.
Now, it is worth noting that the Democratic Party has basically decided that resistance to Trump is more important than actually solving problems.
There's polling on what Trump is doing in DC.
And according to the Washington Post, Washington, DC residents overwhelmingly oppose President Trump's decision to take over the DC police and order federal law enforcement and the National Guard into district streets.
65 percent don't think his actions will make the city safer from violent crime according to a Washington Post Shar School poll.
31% of district residents say crime is an extremely or very serious problem in the city.
That's down from 50% in May and 65% in spring of 2024.
Presumably, that's because some people are coding that question as do you approve of what Trump is doing about crime?
Now residents do show agreement on only one view.
Just under half think increasing punishments for convicted teenagers would reduce violent crime, which is a President Trump policy aim, obviously.
So again, it is it is fascinating in Washington, DC.
It is certainly true that the politically driven are less interested in solving problems than in yelling at at President Trump for sure, for sure.
According to the polling, by the way, as of August 17, 54% of DC residents who are polled here say that crime is getting better in DC.
Seventeen percent say worse.
If you go back to just May, 29% said better and 28% said worse.
As far as how many people were worried about being victims of various crimes in their day to day life, the answer is 39% were worried about being car jacked, 43% were worried about a theft in a public place.
36% were worried about physical assault.
Those are actually Very, very high numbers, like truly high numbers in most of the country.
The answer is very low.
Asked whether people that they knew had been victims of particular violent crimes, 27 percent said yes, that someone they knew, a close friend, had been a victim of violent crime.
Another 14 percent said a member of their immediate family.
10 percent said they themselves had been a victim of violent crime in Washington, DC.
And it is true that the National Guard soldiers are certainly more visible.
According to that polling, 55 percent of the people polled.
said that they have seen and noticed federal law enforcement officers in Washington, DC, but 61 percent said it has made them feel less safe, which is just a lie.
I'm sorry that that is people using that question as a proxy for do you approve of President Trump or do you not approve of President Trump?
And now again, you can take the hatred of President Trump as your guiding star.
If you're a Democrat, you can.
Is that going to solve the problem, the underlying problems that are causing more and more people to register Republican?
The answer is no.
Listen, DC is never going to vote Republican.
With that said, the Democratic Party voter registration problem is.
present in places like Washington, DC.
They're not going to lose the city, but they certainly could lose parts of the city in terms of demographics to President Trump.
And it's amazing that Democrats in the city refuse to actually solve their problems instead of just yelling at President Trump.
Washington, DC mayor Muriel Bowser was asked about crime stat manipulation in DC.
She's not worry, don't worry.
We're not manipulating.
The crime states are going down.
Thank you, Mayor.
The suspicion of manipulating numbers is not new.
In 2018, Fox Five also reported on similar accusation going through several FOIA requests and a lot of data as well.
My question to you is, what's the plan here?
How do you show the federal government that you're on tap and on top of and able to respond to what's going on?
I think we can respond pretty simply.
I'm not sure what questions we've gotten solved.
Let's leave it as saying that we will cooperate and answer their questions.
Okay.
So again, they're just going to continue, I assume, to falsify those crime stats.
Meanwhile, because of the resistance to Trump, and this explains everything that Gavin Newsom is doing, he thinks he's going to win voters like this.
Apparently, you remember just last week, there was that rather girly throwing person in the polo shirt who chucked a sandwich, chucked a hoagieie at one of the National Guard soldiers and then got his ass arrested.
And it turns out he worked for the DOJ and, you know, now got fired.
Well, now apparently the sandwich has become a sign of resistance.
By the way, this is just a demonstration of a totally unserious country.
When throwing a sandwich at a National Guard officer, is it like in actual countries with actual tyranny, signs of resistance involve standing in front of tanks in Tiananmen Square, for example.
In unserious countries, signs of resistance involve throwing a hoagie at a National Guard member and then getting out on bail.
But according to fifty first, which is a DC centric website, like almost everyone else,, Lorraine Hughes saw the video as it rocketed across social media last week.
A man clad in shorts and a pink shirt, angry gesticulating in front of a federal officer on U Street Northwest before throwing an uneaten sub sandwich at his chest.
A brief chase ensues and the man, known by the internet as Sandwich Guy, is apprehended.
Inspiration quickly struck for the hobbyist printmaker.
She started carving a design into a linoleum block, rolled red paint along the elevated edges, and pressed the block into a piece of paper.
I love the DC flag.
It's an awesome clean design, she said.
Something about the sub fitting right in for the bars seemed like a good substitute.
Who posted a picture of the resulting print on the Reddit channel for Washington DC?
It prompted thousands of likes and requests for copies of the print.
She spent the weekend furiously taking orders for pins, tote bags and t-shirts bearing the new design.
First of all, capitalism always wins, gang.
She said, I realize sub sandwich artists a very specific cultural moment.
But again, this has become like the rallying point.
So basically Gavin Newsom is sandwich guy.
I assume he throws better than sandwich guy, but it is demonstrative of where the left is.
Basically, they are now relegated to throwing sandwiches as people at people in the desperate hope that this will win them back political popularity.
Now there are only a couple of things that can win them back political popularity.
One of them will be shifting their position, which it seems like they're not not going to do.
The other could be an economic downturn.
I keep warning about this because, again, political policy makes a awfully big difference.
I do not like corporatism.
I do not like unpredictable tariffs.
I am concerned.
I think the economy continues to sort of froth and bubble.
We'll get to more on this in just a moment.
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Speaking of the radicalism in the Democratic Party, again, a Gavin Newsom sort of take here is the redistricting in California in violation of the California Constitution.
Now he's trying to get a referendum passed in November that will allow for a one-time redistricting in response to Texas Republicans redistricting.
And again, notice the racialist sort of tenor of so much of this.
Democratic representative Aguilar, California 33rd.
He's arguing that California, Pete Aguilar, the Democratic caucus chair, he's arguing that California needs to redistrict.
Why?
Because California is helping minorities, whereas Texas is somehow harming minorities by creating, I think, more majority Hispanic districts.
This is a temporary measure to answer what Donald Trump is trying to do across this country.
It is temporary and it is considerate of the Voting Rights Act, which is something that Texas does not care about.
They are splitting communities of color.
We are doing everything we can in this map to lift up those communities of interest and protect the Voting Rights Act.
We honor and lift that work up.
Again, it's amazing.
So if Texas redistrict, it's harming minorities.
If California redistrict, it's somehow helping minorities.
First of all, I was unaware that one man, one vote is supposed to not apply based on your race.
I think it's precisely the opposite, actually.
But again, this is the idea that is being promoted by Democrats across the aisle, you know, across the whole spectrum.
Eddie Gloud of MSNBC, he says redistricting in Texas is somehow racist.
4.3 million black people live in Texas, the largest number of black folk in any state, in any country, in any, in the Union union and two men.
They're looking at that districting map.
How are their voices going to be represented?
So I want us to understand what we're seeing not only in Texas but around the country as a part of racial gerrymandering as part of the racialist and racist agenda of the Trump administration.
I know we want to talk about it simply in terms of politics, but there's something insidious underneath it all.
And by the way, look how they can't get out of their own way.
Look how, as the New York Times mentioned, you can't use race as a proxy for voting anymore.
You can't.
And the Democrats keep doing it.
They're using race as a proxy for how you should draw the voting districts because they believe that they can draw districts simply based on the race of the people in them and that that will somehow guarantee a democratic win or a republican win in a particular district.
That isn't true.
Meanwhile, Barack Obama underscoring his own radicalism.
So President Obama has been speaking out a lot more lately.
That is presumably because his party is on the skids and it turns out the Obama movement was a giant fail.
Everything that has happened since Barack Obama became president in 2008 has not been good for the country.
It has not.
Barack Obama is, I think, the single most transformative president of my lifetime in the negative direction.
Now President Trump may end up being the most transformative president of my lifetime in the other direction, but that too is a reaction to the.
The idea that Barack Obama is somehow still touted as a bizarre democratic moderate is beyond it's beyond speech.
It's so stupid.
If you remember back to the Obama era, Barack Obama was a radical left winger in the Senate.
He was a radical left winger as president.
It's the reason he was unpopular going into 2012.
And then he was even more radical in his second term.
He set the predicate for all this.
I'm just going to pick up my pen and pick up my phone.
I don't need Congress.
He's going to unilaterally just do things.
It was Barack Obama who set all the groundwork for all this.
Well, now he is green lighting the California redistricting effort.
He says, I wanted just a fair fight between Republicans and Democrats based on who's got better ideas and take it to the voters and see what happens.
But I want to be very clear.
He always wants to be very clear.
Here from Texas is taking direction from a party's White House.
I love that Barack Obama is now suggesting that Donald Trump was the head of a party's White House.
Barack Obama's IRS literally targeted conservative nonprofits.
Barack Obama's regime legitimately went after the little sisters of the poor.
He went after nuns to get them to subsidize abortion care.
Barack Obama suggesting that he was somehow a nonpartisan president is insane.
Anyway, he says here from Texas is taking direction from a party's White House.
That is effectively saying gerrymander for party's purposes so we can maintain.
the house despite our unpopular policies.
Ridiculous right in the middle of a decade between censuses, which is not how the system was designed.
I tremendous respect for how governor Gavin Newsom has approached this.
I have a feeling that he could find a way to justify any redistricting by any Democrats at any time.
Actually, I don't believe him when he says that that's only a response to Texas.
If California decided to redistrict to stop Trump's agenda just on its own, he would do that as well.
But for the Democrats, again, you can see Gavin Newsom taking advantage of all of this.
Is it going to be successful?
I don't know.
It might not be in the state of California.
Even if it is, is he going to be able able to reverse the fact that demographics are cutting against Democrats, that voter registration is cutting against Democrats?
No, but all Gavin Newsom wants out of this is the 2028 nomination.
And what does that mean?
It means performative resistance and it means a lot of cursing.
Here we go.
This is radical rigging of a midterm election, radical rigging of an election, destroying, vandalizing this democracy, the rule of law.
So I'm sorry.
I know some people's sensibilities.
I respect and appreciate that.
But right now, with all due respect, we're walking down.
a damn different path.
We're fighting fire with fire.
I'm going to punch these sons in the mouth.
So much verbal grind.
It's like a teenage girl in a man's body.
I'm going to punch his.
Take a lozenge, my friend.
And meanwhile, as I said before, the biggest obstacle to continued Republican success is not, in fact, President Trump's immigration policy or his crime policy or his foreign policy, all of which are excellent.
The biggest obstacle is the possibility of an economic downturn.
And as I've said a thousand times, what do investors want from the Trump administration?
They only want a few things.
Deregulation.
We're doing that.
Lower taxes.
We're doing that.
Predictability.
We're not doing that at all.
Every investor I know is kind of holding his or her breath, waiting to see what President Trump is going to do on a day to day basis.
And that's also true when it comes to the Fed.
So there is a widespread sentiment that the Federal Reserve is very likely to lower the interest rates 25 basis points at their upcoming meeting.
And that's probably what needs to happen given the fact that inflation has really not popped in the way that many people thought it would immediately after the tariffs.
Now, it's also possible that there will be some inflation that bleeds into the economy.
But even if that were true, the kind of inflation that's being produced by tariffs tends to be transitory.
Why?
Well, because if you temporarily increase the prices of goods and services through tariffs, then demand lowers.
And when demand lowers, then the prices go back down.
Now, that does mean more economic stagnation.
And theoretically, you can counteract some of that by subsidizing easy money policies via the Fed, which I think is what President Trump is calling for at this point.
However, there was apparently broad Federal Reserve support.
for keeping those interest rates steady last month.
According to the minutes from last month's meeting, almost all officials supported the decision, implying that apart from two dissenting officials, it was backed by the remaining sixteen officials who participated.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the decision followed a period of intense political pressure on Fed Treasurer Rampell by the White House to lower interest rates.
Officials maintained their benchmark policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% as they weighed how importers, retailers and consumers will divide the cost of higher duties on imports.
The written accounts in the meeting released with a customary three week lag suggested officials were divided over when they could be confident higher import costs would not lead to a period of broader rolling price hikes.
Some officials said a great deal could be learned in the coming months.
Others said it would not be feasible or appropriate to wait for complete clarity on the tariff effects on inflation before adjusting the stance of monetary policy.
Now again, there are a lot of people who are suspicicious that Fed chair Jerome Powell has basically now staked his own political reputation on saying no to Trump.
That includes people, by the way, who are not on the right side of the aisle politically.
People like Mohammed Al Arian of Allianz.
He has suggested that Jerome Powell needs to go simply because of the sort of patina of politics that now resides and hovers over Jerome Powell.
Since that meeting, economic data have strengthened the argument of so called doves who favor rate cuts because job growth in May and June was revised lower.
Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, who last month dissented in favor of a cut, have argued officials should not react to price increases from tariffs because those are not likely to be repeated.
That is the argument I was making, which is that these inflation arguments are transitory.
Now, again, I have to say that I think central bank driven artificially low interest rates tend to lead to bubbles.
This is what happened during the Greenspan years and then happened again during the Jerome Powell early years.
Easy money policies tend to lead to bubbles.
We already have an extremely high PE ratio on Wall Street that is particularly driven by the insane out of balance price to earnings ratios of the big tech companies, which are now trading at, in some cases, over a hundred times price to earnings.
So you really need to have an earnings ramp up to justify that, that sort of investment.
So I'm suspicious that we are already in a bubble.
I know that that a lot of people are hesitant to say that.
I know there's a lot of cross currents in the economy right now, a lot of confusion in the economy.
But if you look at how the stock market is going right now, what you are seeing is that investors are pouring money into the tech companies because they look scalable and they are not pouring money into any other part of the stock market.
Well, why does this matter?
Well, what you want from the Federal Reserve, when I talked about predictability, what you want from the Federal Reserve is a feeling that they are in fact dispassionate, that they are going to look at all the economic factors and then make the best decision for the future of the economy.
What you don't want is the feeling that a president who is in fact quite variable on his economic policies is actually manipulating the Fed or pressuring the Fed to do things.
We saw already the president in fire, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because he didn't like the last jobs report.
And as I said at the time, I thought that was negative.
I didn't think there was a real upside to that.
Why?
Well, because the head of the BLS just takes in the stats and then turns out whatever the outcome of the stats is.
You can argue with the methodologies that are used.
You can change those methodologies, but you're not going to simply fix the jobs numbers by replacing the person at the head of the BLS.
And all that's going to do is underscore the idea that now the data that you're going to get are actually being pushed by the Trump administration, particularly.
That's I'm not in favor of that.
Well, meanwhile, the president has been exerting pretty open pressure, not just on Jerome Powell, but now on another member of the Federal Reserve, Governor Lisa Cook.
Now, I may not agree with Lisa Cook on economics.
In fact, I probably don't.
I may think that Lisa Cook tends to be politically left.
Okay, that does not change the reality for investors, which is the more perception there is that the central government of the United States is pressuring the Federal Reserve in one direction or another, the less certainty there is going to be that the Federal Reserve central banking policy of the United States is geared toward most sane outcome rather than most politically palatable outcome for the administration.
According to Axios, the Trump administration is pursuing wholesale changes at the Federal Reserve with a ruthlessness and creativity few Fed watchers could have imagined.
The president's demands for lower interest rates are not just rhetoric, his attacks aren't limited to the insults against Chair Jerome Powell.
Rather, the administration is pursuing a sophisticated multifront war to try to install loyalists atop the Fed much faster than normal turnover would allow.
Now remember the way that it works over at the Federal Reserve.
It's not that Jerome Powell unilaterally gets to make a decision about what the interest rates are.
He is not a one-man show over there.
The way that it works is that there's something called the Federal Open Markets Committee.
And the Federal Open Markets Committee decides exactly how this goes.
It consists of twelve members, the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven reserve bank presidents who serve one year terms on a rotating basis.
So the current 2025 committee members include Jerome Powell.
It does include Lisa Cook.
It also includes people like Chris Waller, who is on Trump's side.
in the last debate.
Now as for Cook, she was a professor of economics and international relations at Michigan State University.
She was a research associate at one point at the National Bureau of Economic Research, was at the faculty at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.
But again, she leans left.
She was a senior economist on the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama.
So there's a reason why President Trump wants her gone.
I would assume with that said, is that going to be enough?
I mean, if the idea is that Trump is going to radically remake the FOMC to back his economic priorities, that is not going to make investors sort of more eager to invest.
It's going to make them less eager because what they will figure is that the President of the United States is pushing people into doing things they wouldn't otherwise do.
Bill Pulte is the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
He posted on X a letter to the Attorney General stating it appears Lisa Cook, quote, has falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statutes.
She took out a mortgage on a Michigan house represented to be her principal residence, and then shortly thereafter, she took out a loan on an Atlanta condominium that was also described as her principal residence according to Pulte's letter.
Now, she has not actually defaulted on either loan.
Actually, and Pulte has been going after both California Senator Adam Schiff and New York Attorney General Letitia James on similar grounds.
Well, now President Trump is posting that Cook must resign.
And apparently the Wall Street Journal is reporting he's considering firing Cook for cause.
So he has a nominee who's going to be up, Steven Moran, who would join Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller as Trump appointees on the seven-person board of governors with another vacancy.
Trump appointees would then attain a four to three majority and that would give Trump appointees power over the Fed systems, budget, staffing and selection of reserve bank presidents.
So it could rig the system for the next couple of years.
Right now, Cook's term is not scheduled to expire until 2038, which is extremely long.
By the way, the board of govern Governors has to vote to approve reappointment of everybody who's on a five-year term because the twelve presidents of the Reserve Bank serve five-year terms.
They're all scheduled to expire at the end of February.
So theoretically, if President Trump were able to gain a 43 majority on the Board of Governors, he could then stack the FOMC just a few months from now in February.
Now, is this likely?
Maybe he'll get the rate cuts that he wants out of that.
Let's assume that Trump gets the best of all possibilities for him.
He gets the rate cuts that he wants, big rate cuts.
We go all the way down to interest rates in the threes, for example.
We get like real cuts.
We're all the way down to 275.
Okay.
Okay, are investors going to simply bet that the economy booms based on that or are we just going to get gigantic bubbles?
This is the problem with central bank policy as a general rule.
I'm more in favor of floating interest rates without the central bank setting.
These sorts of rules.
Great book called The Price of Time all about interest rates that suggests that actually artificially low interest rates are just as damaging as very, very high interest rates in their own way.
They lead to this delay effect where the bubble bursts and then everybody pays the price.
According to the Wall Street Journal's editorial board, this is nasty business.
Jerome Powell does not have the authority to remove Miss Cook.
Why would he know anything about her mortgages?
The context for Mr. Pulte's accusations is relevant.
President Trump is angry.
The Fed hasn't cut interest rates.
Cook voted with Powell to stand pat at last month's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
So the Trump administration is trying to bludgeon Cook into supporting a rate cut under threat of removal and criminal prosecution.
The FHFA's job under Pulte is to ensure Fannie and Freddie don't take on too much risk so taxpayers don't have to bail them out again as happened between 2008 and 2009.
But instead, Pulte is going after people that President Trump doesn't like.
So again, this is at the very least, do I think that this is going to to be a good thing for the economy?
Probably not.
Meanwhile, the SP 500 has fallen for the fifth consecutive day because Walmart put out its earnings and its shares dipped more than four percent because they beat the quarterly sales estimate but they missed their earnings expectations.
That's the first time that Walmart has missed its quarterly earnings expectations since May of 2022.
And again, we are still waiting to hear from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Friday in Jackson Hall where he could actually explain what the hell he is thinking here.
The market this week, according to CNBC, has been pressured by a heavy bout of selling.
Investors took profits from high flying names including Nvidia, Palantir and Meta.
Adam Chrisopholi, founder of Vital Knowledge, said there just hasn't been much conviction behind the recent bout of tech selling, and most people assume it will be over relatively soon.
This mindset suggests a dangerous degree of complacency.
It means the pain trade will be for the tech underperformance to continue.
And again, an enormous amount of what is going on right now has to do with variable economic policy.
It does.
According to the Labor Department, they put out a report today.
Jobless claims total 235,000 for the week ending August 16.
That is up 11,000 from the prior period higher.
And the Dow Jones Consensus estimate for 225,000.
There's the highest level.
since June 21st.
Continuing claims rose to 1.97 million.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia's manufacturing index for August posted an unexpectedly weak reading of negative 0.3% that is down 15.9 from the prior month and below the estimate for 7.0.
So, you know, I've been saying all along that I do not think the classical economic theory is wrong.
I just think it takes a while for everything to materialize.
And my great hope for President Trump is that he watches the numbers.
I know that he does.
And that while watching the numbers, the president of the United States starts to make the kinds of policy changes that are likely to lead to long term and short term economic booms.
And meanwhile, speaking of corporate America, Cracker Barrel is now under fire.
Why?
What did Cracker Barrel do?
Well, they changed their logo.
Their logo used to be, I thought, rather charming.
It's kind of a middle aged farmer, white guy sitting on a chair leaning against a barrel with a logo that said Cracker Barrel, old country store.
And it was kind of charming.
It didn't look generic.
And now their new logo is basically just like they kept the same letters for Cracker Barrel.
The same font and everything, but they just got rid of the dude leaning on the barrel and the chair and the old country store.
And they just made it into like a yellow block that kind of looks like you're driving into it, a Carls junior or something.
I do not like, I guess that the shape is supposed to be in the shape of a sideways barrel, but I mean, you'd have to kind of think about that, I guess.
It's a bad move.
It's a very bad move.
It is getting rid of historic IP in favor of something absolutely and ridiculously generic.
So when it first opened in 1969, apparently Cracker Barrel had a logo with just text in 1977, it updated.
its logo to have that dude who is resting by the barrel.
The restaurant says the new logo is now rooted even more closely to the iconic barrel shape and word mark that started it all.
Apparently, it also noted that farm fresh scrambled eggs and buttermilk biscuits were the inspiration behind the color palette in the new campaign.
Um, all right.
I mean, sure.
I guess whatever.
The new updates are part of the company's All the More campaign that positions the iconic American brand for the future.
So apparently here's Cracker Barrel CEO Julie Fels Masino trying to explain why they just mutilated the logo this way.
What if all the customers are coming at you hard enough about the look of the restaurant and they want to go back to the old way?
Would you do it?
Honestly, the feedback has been overwhelmingly positive that people like what we're doing.
I'll give you another soundbite.
I actually happened to be in Orlando last week with all of our managers.
We bring them together once every other year.
And the number one question that I got asked, Michael, was, how can I get a remodel?
When can I get a remodel?
How do I get on the list?
Oh, really?
So because the feedback and the buzz is so good, not only from our customers, but from our team members.
They want to work in a wonderful restaurant.
So we're doing everything for our gu guests and our team members.
Okay.
So, um, you know, again, this is reminiscent, uh, not, not in the same sort of way.
This is very reminiscent of that time that you remember there used to be antimima syrup that was, that was in your refrigerator and now it's Pearl Milling Company.
You don't know that it's called Pearl Milling Company, by the way.
That's the first thing you've heard about this.
It just looked like the same color.
So you picked it up at the grocery store.
And during the great racial reckoning of 2020, they decided they had to redo the entire logo for Anjama's pancake flour and all the rest, which, again, is kind of bizarre because the actual story of the woman who was Anjama is a fascinating story.
Her name was Nancy Green.
And according to ABC news, she was born into slavery in Montgomery County, Kentucky.
She moved to a deeply divided Chicago.
She became a strong voice at Olivet Baptist Church.
And apparently, Green is the essential worker.
You know, she was, she was seen as one of the key parts, many people's kitchens were kind of integrated this way.
And ABC actually found a descendant of this woman who said that actually he was kind of sad that they that they got rid of this.
Apparently said she was the trusted face back then.
Anyone who would look at an African American woman cooking, they knew they could trust her cooking that she could cook and they got rid of it anyway.
And this was supposed to make the country better.
Obviously, this has fixed everything.
So I'm not I'm not sure what Cracker Barrel is doing here.
It doesn't make much sense.
Cracker Barrel does, of course, have many DEI initiatives.
If you take a look at their corporate website, they have the LGBTQ plus minus divided by sign alliance.
They have a diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging department.
In other words, they do all of the usual sort of left-wing tropes.
They have a group inside the company called Be Bold to cultivate and develop black leaders within the Cracker Barrel organization, utilizing allyship, mentorship and education to create a path to continued excellence, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
They have the Cracker Barrel Neuro Diverse Collective, which is interesting.
They have Ola, which is the group inside Cracker Barrel that promotes Hispanic and Latino culture through hiring, developing and retaining talent within Cracker Barrel.
So basically, they're just a generic New York based kind of company, I suppose.
It seems like that's what they're doing.
doing well my guess is that when you lose that local flavor you probably will lose some sales as well and we'll find out it is kind of sad that that that so much of the IP of America is just getting more and more generic I mean I'm old enough to remember when when McDonald's had the big golden arches outside and now they've decided to dump that in so many places and and they've instead gone with this very generic logo I don't know this kind of stuff I'm I'm not a big fan of all right folks the show continues for our members Right now,
we'll get to the latest on Ukraine.
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