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March 31, 2022 - The Ben Shapiro Show
46:20
The Biden Administration’s Complete Collapse | Ep. 1464
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We here at The Daily Wire are ready to go to war with Disney to protect children.
The Biden administration sees record low approval ratings as the economy teeters on the brink of recession and America prepares for a new border crisis.
I'm Ben Shapiro.
This is the Ben Shapiro Show.
The Ben Shapiro Show is sponsored by ExpressVPN.
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We'll get to the news in just one moment.
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Well, as we've been talking about, the employees at Disney are apparently ready to indoctrinate your kids in queer theory and wokeness and sexual indoctrination.
This is what they are ready to do.
I don't say this because I'm attributing motive to them.
I say this because they said it.
There was an all-hands meeting over at Disney in which multiple employees talked about spooning a bunch of left-wing sexual values into children's programming.
They said, in fact, that this was their goal.
They talked about how when you go to Disneyland, from now on, we have to be very, very careful that you don't label little girls princesses because they might be insulted.
They might, in fact, be princes.
You can no longer say things like, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls.
Not only that, they say that they want to make this according to the corporate president of Disney, who has two queer children.
She says one pansexual child, nobody knows what that means, and one trans child, which seems to be kind of a coincidence.
I mean, it's amazing all of the genetic variation in one family there.
But this Disney corporate president said that she wants 50% of all characters at Disney to be LGBTQIA plus minus divided by sign, fractional sign, Percentage sign.
She wants half the characters to be that or people of color.
Half.
Because the idea is that your child must learn their values.
Must learn their values.
And this sheds a new light on the opposition that we have seen from the left to the Florida Parental Rights and Education Act.
Now, I'll be honest.
Originally, I thought that when the left saw the bill, the reason they freaked out is because they were misinterpreting the bill.
They hadn't read it.
They just listened to all the advocacy groups who said that the bill was called Don't Say Gay, and they literally thought, because some of them do, that the bill banned the word gay in the state of Florida, which clearly it does not, since I've now said the word gay several times in the course of this program, and I've said it many times over the course of the past couple of weeks, and not once has someone broken down the door to haul me away.
So obviously it was not a don't-say-gay bill, nor does the bill say that if there is a kid who has two gay parents, that if this kid says, my dads took me to Disneyland the other day, that the kid would be sued.
What it did say is that teachers were not allowed to indoctrinate children on these issues without parental permission, K-3, or as age appropriate beyond that.
That is what the actual bill says.
That's all the bill says.
So originally I thought that it was just a misinterpretation.
Maybe it was just that the left didn't understand the bill.
Then you see the footage from the Disney employees who are saying overtly that they wish to convert your children to a particular way of thinking about sexual mores and about gender identity and about boys being girls and girls being boys.
They wish to do this.
And there is one employee who literally said, and I quote, that this person said that they are pushing a quote, not so secret gay agenda.
Or not at all secret.
Gay agenda.
This is what the person said.
That's not my words.
That's their words.
It would be conspiracy theory if I said it.
If they say it openly, to each other, on tape, that's no longer a conspiracy theory.
It's just the thing that they are saying out loud.
And so you have to wonder at this point, the reason that they're opposing the bill in Florida, is it because they misconstrue the bill or because they actually understand the bill?
And they oppose the bill on its merits.
They want small children indoctrinated with their values, which is, of course, why it is a priority to them to put in animated shows for small children.
Lesbian couples making out and why it's important for there to be trans and non-binary and non-cis characters in children's cartoon programming.
It is not for the good of your child.
It is because they wish to hijack your child and to separate you from your child and to teach your child their values.
You are the enemy as a parent.
When we here at The Daily Wire, for months and months and months, we have been talking and putting into plan and putting into place a plan to do children's content.
Because the simple fact is that we've known for a long time that the left has been skewing children's content.
But we announced yesterday that over the next three years, we would be investing $100 million here at The Daily Wire into making children's entertainment content.
The reason being, I'm a parent.
I have three kids, eight, five, two.
And it used to be that I could turn on Disney Plus and feel relatively safe that if my five-year-old grabbed ahold of their remote and hit anything, that it would be okay.
I no longer have that sort of faith.
I didn't have that much faith before.
I pre-screened virtually everything my kids saw.
Now I have less than no faith.
Now I have negative faith.
And I think a lot of parents feel the same way.
We feel slapped in the face.
We feel that companies like Disney wish to hijack our children and use our own children against us and turn our children against us.
On behalf of their own values because they want to create a utopia for the adults.
That's what this is.
It's a bunch of adults who wish the world to work in a certain way.
And the only way for the world to work in that way is to indoctrinate your kids and my kids.
And it's painful to me on a personal level.
I'm a Disney lover.
I love Disney.
I grew up watching Disney movies.
My sisters and I, we didn't grow up a particularly rich family.
We grew up in a two-bedroom home in Burbank, California.
Until I was about 11 years old, I shared a bedroom with three of my siblings.
And all three of my siblings and I, when it was time to go to bed at night, my dad would put on a tape of Beauty and the Beast, and we would listen to the score, and we'd go to sleep.
So I grew up on Disney.
I know Disney lyrics better than pretty much anyone else I know.
We're Disney annual pass holders in California.
It makes me incredibly sad that Disney has decided to cave to the woke, and not just cave to the woke, to echo the woke, to become a woke machine.
It's very sad to me.
But just because I'm sad about it doesn't mean that we have any other option other than to build.
Because we can sit here and we can **** and moan about this.
We can complain about it.
We can say that it's really bad that Disney is doing this, and of course it's really bad that Disney is doing this.
In fact, it's perverse that Disney is doing this.
It's perverse that Disney wants to leverage its own values on sex.
into its programming to five, six, seven, eight-year-old kids.
That is screwed up in every possible way.
We can complain about it or we can build an alternative.
So we here at The Daily Wire, we are dedicating $100 million over the next three years to making children's programming so that you have a space where if you give your kid the remote, you're not going to have to worry that we're going to crap on your values because we reflect your values.
We like your values.
We don't think that you as a parent need to be undermined.
We think that you as a parent need to be reinforced.
We think traditional values are good.
We think that kids' innocence should be preserved.
They are not little widgets.
They are not sexual beings in waiting.
They are children whose innocence needs to be maintained, needs to be protected.
That is why we're... This is not just a monetary play, although we think that Disney has now opened up a market, because the woker the left gets, the more markets they open up for people who are willing to compete.
But this is not just a monetary play for us.
It is a monetary play because we believe in capitalism, but it is more than that.
It's an ideological play.
We think that you, people like you, parents who are listening to this program, that you are not willing to risk your kids and their future and the way that they think about the most important issues in life simply because Disney has a license to use Star Wars.
We don't think that that is who you are as parents.
And so we are going to produce an alternative.
It's not just enough to say that people should not consume Disney product because, I mean, listen, I won't.
And when it comes to the new light-year movie, I have no intention of showing my five-year-old boy a light-year movie in which there are lesbians making out.
This is not on my priority list.
I have no intent on showing my kids that film.
None.
But it's more than that.
Because it's one thing to say that you're going to temporarily pull your dollars from Disney, or that you're going to pull your dollars from a particular Disney movie.
It's another thing to start building alternatives.
Places where you know that your values won't be pissed and spit upon.
Places where you know that the left is not going to prey upon your children.
And that's what we're intending on building here at Daily Wire.
So as I say, yesterday, The Daily Wire co-CEO, Small G, Small K, God King, Jeremy Boring, announced that we here at the Daily Wire would be dumping $100 million into development of television shows for kids at DW Kids.
Here's what it sounded like.
Because of the great reporting of Chris Ruffo, we got to see leaked footage from inside Disney of high up Disney employees saying things like, we have a not so secret gay agenda.
Saying things like, we insert, we, we, uh, Make sure I get this quote right.
We're adding in queerness wherever we can.
And that, quote, no one is trying to stop the producer who is doing so.
Another executive within the company said, if anything, we don't have enough LGBTQIA representation in content made for very small children.
So what are we going to do about it?
But we're going to do the same thing we always do.
We're going to build alternatives.
Americans have enormous economic might.
They just don't have any alternatives.
The Daily Wire is building those alternatives.
And today I'm proud to tell you that we will be launching Daily Wire Kids.
So, this has been in the works for quite a while here at Daily Wire.
As I mentioned over at Daily Wire, we hired the VeggieTales writers to help create our first two children's shows.
One is called Chilla Time.
About a family of homeschooled chinchillas.
Again, appropriate for children of all ages.
And another one called Doodles with Noodles that centers on a man and his puppet giving drawing lessons.
When you describe stuff that way, it sounds silly, of course.
But all children's programming sounds silly.
The thing about this is that we are deadly serious that we mean to provide a safe alternative for your kids.
Where you are not going to have to worry that if you leave the room for five minutes, your kid is being told that he can be a she.
You're not going to have to worry about that.
You're going to have to worry about answering questions about the morality of various forms of marriage when you come back into the room after leaving your kid watching the latest episode of Paw Patrol.
You're not going to have to worry about that sort of stuff.
And we are willing to sink serious money into this.
In fact, we've committed to sinking serious money because we know that you're going to help us.
That's what we have.
And I've said this before, but it's true.
We've generated so much content over the past year alone.
We've generated three separate films.
We have another one that's coming out in just a couple of months.
We've generated all sorts of new series.
We've generated a publisher.
We've generated a razor company.
And we've done all these things because you guys help us.
And we need your help because here's the thing.
Has tens, maybe hundreds of millions of subscribers at this point.
Disney spends $25 billion a year on exactly the kind of programming that they claim they are going to use as a political weapon against you and your children.
And we are committing $100 million over the next three years.
We need your help.
I'm just gonna put it right out there.
Hey, obviously we make money from this because we believe there's a market out there.
We believe every time Disney spends a buck attempting to push its woke agenda, it is pushing more people into our corner.
But we are also first movers in the space, which means that we have to sink an enormous amount of time and money into the project to build an alternative.
And for us, kids content is a loss leader until it's not.
You're going to help us make it profitable, because if you do, we will provide an alternative.
And by the way, if we provide an alternative, it will force Disney to take you seriously.
It is not just that you will actually have something to show your kids where you can feel safe.
It is also that Disney might have second thoughts about caving to the most pathetically woke people on planet Earth, the people who want to hijack your kids.
They might have second thoughts.
They might start looking at that profit margin shrinking and think to themselves, hey, maybe we shouldn't make a story about a panda bear who happens to be a pansexual lesbian gymnast.
Maybe instead we should make something that appeals to five and six year olds, maybe.
And doesn't crap all over the parents.
Disney might have, again, markets matter.
There's a reason Disney doesn't tick off the Chinese, because they know the Chinese will use their market power.
There's a reason Disney doesn't care about ticking you off, because they know you're not going to use your market power.
So we want to give you the ability to use your market power and get good content in return.
And yes, leverage Disney into going back to a time when they protected the magic and innocence of childhood.
So, if you want to help us out, please go subscribe right now at dailywire.com slash subscribe.
Use code buildthefuture.
Again, that's buildthefuture.
You get 45% off your membership.
You get all sorts of good stuff anyway when you go to dailywire.com slash subscribe and use code buildthefuture.
You're helping us build the future on an ideological level.
You're going to get our kids content as soon as that is available in the next few months.
You're also going to get Terror on the Prairie with Gina Carano.
You're going to get access to the other movies that we've made ranging from Shut In to Run Hide Fight to the Hyperions.
You're gonna get all access with Maisie and hang out with me on just random nights and watch me answer questions about my kids and my life.
And I'll hang out with you and we'll get to know one another.
You can do all those things when you go to dailywire.com slash subscribe and use code buildthefuture.
You get 45% off your subscription today when you do that to help us provide your kids with the content they need to protect themselves against the nastiness of multi-billion dollar corporations that wish to weaponize your kids against you.
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Alrighty, meanwhile.
Joe Biden continues to be just an absolute horror show of a president.
The polling for Joe Biden gets worse and worse and worse.
There's one particular poll I want to talk about here.
This is a Quinnipiac poll.
According to Quinnipiac, Joe Biden's job approval is now at 36%.
36%.
So about 1 in 3 Americans actually thinks Joe Biden is doing a good job.
55% of Americans think he's doing a crappy job.
His approval on the economy is at 34%.
By the way, he has not hit the bottom yet.
He has not hit the floor.
See, the thing about Trump is that Trump had a very solid ceiling.
He was never going to break about 47%.
He had a very solid floor.
He was never going to break about 38% to the bottom.
Joe Biden has no ceiling and no floor.
When he entered office, he had a 60% approval rating.
And now he has a 34% approval rating on the economy.
And it is going south and it is getting worse and worse.
What are Americans' top concerns?
Their top concern is inflation.
30% say inflation is their top concern.
The invasion of Ukraine is their second concern at 14%.
And immigration is at 9%.
Now this is nightmare territory for Democrats because inflation is not going away.
As we'll get to in a second, the economy is on a razor's edge right now.
The invasion of Ukraine, despite the fact that Joe Biden says that he has rallied the world behind his cause, he has not actually ended the war in Ukraine.
And when it does end, it is likely to end with Vladimir Putin in a strengthened position with regard to, for example, oil fields in eastern Ukraine, as we'll get to in just a moment.
Immigration is the one that really is lurking here, because if you think that the immigration issue is dead, it is not dead by half.
As we'll explain in a second, we are about to see a massive, unprecedented wave of illegal immigration over the course of the next couple of months, facilitated by this administration.
Even Chuck Todd on MSNBC, he's saying this administration is just cratering.
I mean, this is like the dinosaurs.
Joe Biden, the dinosaur, is looking up in the sky and he sees the asteroid headed for Earth.
And all he can say is... There's Chuck Todd explaining.
When Bill Clinton and George W. Bush had midterms that went their way, their job approval rating was right around 50 or north of it.
Alright?
When you start dipping below 45, you've got a problem and you're going to have midterms that are in the bad to shellacking ratio.
President Biden's at 40.
George W. Bush was at 39% in 2006.
We know how that turned out.
Wow.
You never want to be in the shellacking territory.
He's about to take a shellac in, according to Chuck Todd.
Meanwhile, how deep are Democrats in their own colon?
So they're already talking about 2024 and where they're going to host the 2024 party convention.
And they're now talking about doing it in Chicago.
Geniuses over here.
Wanna win those big Midwestern states.
So you pick the bluest city in the entire Midwest that is rife with crime and run by one of the most unpopular mayors in all of America, Lori Loughlin.
Genius type stuff right here.
It makes perfect sense.
Meanwhile, Republicans are looking at Milwaukee and Nashville.
Both of which make a lot more sense.
Nashville is cooking.
I mean, by the way, we heard the Daily Wire, we know Nashville pretty well.
Milwaukee is pretty good.
That'd be a fine place for the convention.
Chicago for the Democrats.
Man, they are in such deep trouble.
And on the economy, they're in even worse trouble than I think they know.
So Larry Summers did an interview with Ezra Klein, formerly a Vox now of the New York Times.
Summers has been predicting for a year that serious inflation was on the way.
Now remember, the entire Democratic Party had gotten so far beyond the point where they thought inflation was a real thing, that they had embraced something called modern monetary theory.
Their theory was you could literally just spend money for the rest of time with no limit whatsoever.
Which meant, according to the modern monetary theorist, people like Elizabeth Warren, that the only thing separating America from greatness was just the willpower.
Just the willpower to spend.
There was no reality where if you spent too much money, you'd inflate the economy and you would end up with massive price increases that take a chunk out of American savings and act as a giant tax on Americans.
And that would never happen.
Well, here's the thing.
It did happen.
So Larry Summers predicted that.
And now, as our client over at the New York Times, who was very critical of Larry Summers, he was like, yeah, it turns out that that might've been wrong.
Turns out that Larry Summers was right.
So now, Larry Summers is going further.
He's saying this is not just a problem of inflation.
He's saying that we are basically going to fall into recession at this point.
I think the likelihood is that we will not return to 2% inflation without having at least a mild recession.
I think that the magnitude of the imbalances and excess demand in the labor market are sufficiently great that the odds are probably three and four that we will not get inflation down without running a recession.
Well this is a disaster area for the Democrats.
A full-scale recession?
Listen, I got it wrong.
I thought when Joe Biden took office that he was going to have at least two years of a good economy before we had a slowdown.
Because after all, the pandemic was coming to an end.
We had a working vaccine.
People were going to get back to work.
He wouldn't be stupid enough to superheat the economy.
He wouldn't be a moron enough to pour gasoline on a raging fire of demand.
Now when there are supply chain shortages, I mean, it would take a complete dunderheaded moron to... Oh, he did what?
Oh, no.
By the way, how bad is inflation?
According to one Bloomberg economist, Americans are having to spend, the average American household is spending $5,200 more compared to just last year.
$433 per month more on the same goods and services last year.
That's how bad inflation is.
It is worth five grand to you and your family.
Five grand a year.
That is a lot of money.
That is not a minor problem.
That is a massive problem.
These economists say accelerated depletion of savings will increase the urgency for those staying on the sidelines to join the labor force.
The resulting increase in labor supply will likely dampen wage growth.
So people will need to go back to work.
Employers may be able to lower the wages when that happens.
In the meantime, inflation is going to maintain.
So, speaking of inflation, that rapid inflation that is driving people out of their homes, now would be an excellent time for you to refinance.
Like, if you're thinking about that home, you're thinking about that mortgage, that is your biggest monthly bill, and you should just be prepared.
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I mean, the Federal Reserve has announced this already.
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Now, you might think, at this point, that the Biden administration would do something differently.
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Now you might think at this point that the Biden administration would do something differently.
I mean, after all, the alarm bells should be going off.
According to MarketWatch.com, a closely watched measure of the yield curve that serves as one of the bond market's most reliable recession indicators inverted on Tuesday, underlining fears about the economic outlook as the Federal Reserve considers aggressively hiking interest rates.
you The widely-followed spread between two-year bonds and 10-year Treasury yields intermittently dipped below zero.
It's down from more than 160 basis points a year ago.
The last time the spread inverted was August 30, 2019.
Traders are responding to the likely need for Fed policymakers to deliver a larger-than-normal half-point rate hike, and possibly more soon.
In order to combat inflation, Jerome Powell had opened the door to that a little bit earlier this month.
According to Mark Haefeli, a chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, the risk of an abrupt slowdown or recession has increased, along with the prospect of a swifter sequence of rate rises from the Federal Reserve and disruptions due to the war in Ukraine.
They were too slow to hit the interest rate increase button.
And so now they're going to have to slam on the brakes and people's face is going to hit the steering wheel.
That would be what that recession feels like right there.
Meanwhile, even Biden's own economic advisors are saying, you know what we need to lower the gas price?
Wait for it, wait for it, wait for it.
Oil supply.
Here is Biden economic advisor Brian Deese saying we need more oil supplies.
We'll find out in just a minute.
This administration has no intention of increasing oil supply.
We need more supply of oil in the short term so that we can bring down prices because it is the case that the gas is up about a dollar because we have shut off access to Russian oil to the global market.
We've done that.
It's the right thing to do.
Democrats and Republicans alike supported that effort to end imports of Russian oil.
And now we have to bring more supply on.
That's about U.S.
production.
It's also about using our reserves and working with producing countries around the world.
That's exactly what we're doing.
Well, here's the thing.
You're not actually doing that.
How do I know that?
Because according to WorldOil.com and Bloomberg, the Biden administration doesn't anticipate selling offshore drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico through at least October 2023, effectively stretching a delay in that activity to a third year according to economic projections included in its newly released budget proposal.
The numbers show expected revenues from offshore oil auction bids and annual rental payments on existing leases are set to plummet in fiscal 2023 by about $370 million to just $25 million.
That reflects the government's typical haul from two auctions of oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
The anticipated offshore leasing pause comes despite the war in Ukraine and high costs for oil, gas, and gasoline that have prompted administration officials to implore energy companies to pump more crude.
The Gulf of Mexico generates about 15% of the nation's crude production.
Based on the revenue projections in the Biden budget, there could be at least a three-year gap in the sale of new offshore oil and gas leases, according to Eric Milito, the head of the National Ocean Industries Association.
He said, it's pretty clear there are no new lease sales on the horizon in their mind from a budgeting standpoint until fiscal year 2024.
So they're not even selling new leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
So if you're a company and you're looking to invest, are you going to invest in that oil and gas company that can't even buy a lease in the Gulf of Mexico because of this administration?
So at the same time, they're saying, you know what we need?
We need to increase the oil supply.
They're saying we won't even sell leases to drill in the Gulf of Mexico.
That's unbelievable.
Interior Department officials have maintained there is no longer a leasing pause.
Under a court order, the Interior Department sold oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico last November.
But a federal judge later invalidated the auction after finding regulators didn't analyze its climate impacts.
Though required by federal law, a new five-year plan for selling leases is not on track to be in place by June 30th, when the current Obama-era program expires.
This would translate into reduced oil and gas production of about 500,000 barrels per day between 2022 and 2040, according to an analysis released by the American Petroleum Institute.
So they are actively preventing new drilling in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time that gas prices are spiking.
These geniuses.
These absolute flaming geniuses.
So speaking of low oil supply and really, really high prices, thanks, Joe.
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Okay, so issue number one for Americans.
You're spending way too much money.
Inflation is our number one issue.
Our number two issue is the situation over in Ukraine.
The problem with the situation over in Ukraine is it doesn't look like there is any sort of wonderful off-ramp that is available right now.
A lot of mixed signals coming out of Russia at the moment.
So on the one hand, according to the Jerusalem Post, Russia and Ukraine are in the midst of productive negotiations.
The Jerusalem Post says, Russia and Ukraine will resume their peace talks online on April 1st, a senior Ukrainian official said on Wednesday, after the latest round of negotiations ended in Turkey.
Ukrainian negotiator David Arakamia said in an online post that Ukraine had proposed the country's two leaders should meet.
Russia responded by saying more work needed to be done on a draft treaty.
A possible peace deal between Ukraine and Russia will be put to a national referendum in Ukraine as soon as Russian troops withdraw to their positions from before the invasion, according to Ukrainian negotiator Mikhailo Podolya.
Which is sort of an interesting thing.
So they want to sign some sort of peace deal with the Russians, in which the Russians retreat and withdraw, and then they'll put it to a referendum to see whether the Ukrainians go for it?
That sounds weird, and it would be strange if Putin went for that.
Podoliak said he was optimistic after the talks in Istanbul, as did the presidential advisor Alexey Aristovych, who claimed Ukraine had improved its negotiating position since before the start of the invasion on February 24th.
According to Aristovych, Ukraine is pushing to secure neutral status, but with external security guarantees.
So in other words, they won't join NATO, but NATO will kind of support them if things go real wrong.
According to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irina Bereshchuk, three humanitarian corridors from the Zaporozhye region were negotiated.
It's currently unclear when an official meeting between Putin and Zelensky would happen.
Podoliak said, noting that Russia has to respond to Ukraine's proposal and figure out logistics.
While Ukraine seems optimistic, Russia is differing.
According to Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, he said, quote, the positive thing is the Ukrainian side, at least, has begun to formulate concretely and put down what it proposes on paper.
As for the rest so far, let's say we cannot state anything very promising.
So Russia is sending some pretty mixed signals here.
On the one hand, Russia is saying that they are withdrawing troops, but the reality is they're not really withdrawing the troops.
They've done this sort of thing before.
According to John Kirby over at the Pentagon, Russia is repositioning, they are not withdrawing.
Has there been some movement by some Russian units away from Kiev in the last day or so?
Yeah, we think so.
Small numbers.
But we believe that this is a repositioning, not a real withdrawal.
and that we all should be prepared to watch for a major offensive against other areas of Ukraine.
Okay, meanwhile, again, Moscow's chief negotiator Vladimir Budinsky had described proposals from Kiev in the negotiation as a constructive step, but Dmitry Peskov, that Kremlin spokesperson, he said, no one said the sides have made headway. We can't point to anything particularly promising at this point. Meanwhile, the White House is trying to put a happy face on this.
They say, well, you know, probably the problem here is that Putin is just being misinformed by his advisors.
They think that everybody around Putin is just lying to him about the situation on the ground.
Putin felt misled by the Russian military, which has resulted in persistent tension between Putin and his military leadership.
We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because his senior advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth.
Okay, so I have a question.
That is a weird thing to say publicly.
Maybe it's true that Putin's advisors are lying to him.
But if you say that publicly, doesn't that, again, double Putin down into his position?
Where is the off-ramp?
Alrighty, so there's a theory that's been put out by Brett Stevens over at the New York Times that's kind of fascinating.
And he says, what if Putin actually is not miscalculating here?
Here's what he has to say.
And if this is the case, then this is a big win for Putin.
Here's what he says, quote, Several analysts have compared Putin to a cornered rat, more dangerous now that he's no longer in control of events.
They want to give him a safe way out of the predicament he allegedly created for himself.
Hence the almost universal scorn poured on Joe Biden for saying in Poland, for God's sake this man cannot remain in power.
The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible.
It has the benefit of vindicating the West's strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively.
And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit, additional Ukrainian territory, the Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some sanctions.
But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong?
What if the West is only playing into Putin's hands again?
The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminisce from The Times' Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia's siege of Grozny during the First Chechen War in the mid-90s, says Brett Stevens.
In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade stunning Moscow.
The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar using artillery and air power.
Russia's operating from the same playbook today.
When Western military analysts argue that Putin cannot win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is he can't win clean.
Since when has Putin ever played clean?
Gall writes, there's a whole next stage to the Putin playbook, which is well known to the Chechens.
As Russian troops gained control on the ground in Chechnya, they crushed any further dissent with arrests and filtration camps and by turning and empowering local protégés and collaborators.
So Brett Stevens says, suppose for a moment Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine.
That from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine's east, which contain Europe's second largest known reserves of natural gas after Norway.
Combine that with Russia's previous territorial seizures in Crimea, which has huge offshore energy fields, and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk, which contain part of an enormous shale gas field, as well as Putin's bid to control most or all of Ukraine's coastline, and the shape of Putin's ambitions become clear.
He's less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia's energy dominance.
Canadian energy expert David Knight-Legg says under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist.
As for what's left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine's refugees to new homes outside of Russian control.
In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine's presidency imitating the strongman style of politics Putin prefers in his neighbors.
If this analysis is right, Putin doesn't seem like the miscalculating losers his critics make him out to be.
It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians.
More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russia's troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along, territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality.
Within Russia, the war has already served to Putin's political purposes.
Many in the professional middle class have gone into self-imposed exile.
The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good.
To the extent that Russia's military has embarrassed itself, says Brett Stevens, is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below.
So maybe that's right.
So if that's right, then Putin is actually not in nearly as bad position as everyone says that he is.
And right now, he is putting significant pressure on the West to get Ukraine to make these sorts of concessions, obviously.
Which is what happens when deterrence fails.
German leaders have now triggered the first phase of an emergency plan aimed at preparing for a possible halt to gas deliveries over a dispute with Moscow about payment in rubles.
The move by Germany's Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action to initiate the early warning phase of its emergency gas plan was precautionary.
But they might have to actually implement gas rationing, which is disastrous domestically for Germany, obviously.
Putin knows this, so he's been sort of playing around with the ultimatum of forcing Germany to pay for its gas in rubles as opposed to in dollars, which could theoretically be frozen.
Meanwhile, Russia has now built a parallel payments system successfully.
According to the Wall Street Journal, there are roughly 197 million MasterCard or Visa cards in Russia at the end of 2020, but behind the scenes, the cards don't rely on U.S.
network systems to process payments in Russia.
For years, they've used a homegrown system overseen by Russia's central bank.
The National Payment Card System, known as NSPK in Russian, runs the financial plumbing that underpins card transactions in Russia.
That system was part of Moscow's eight-year effort to insulate the Russian economy from Western financial pressure.
And apparently they have succeeded.
The resilience of Russia's payment system is a rare win for Putin in his financial war with the West.
We provided for our national security in the payments space, said Oma Obayeva, the head of the National Payments Council, a Russian trade association.
So what this may mean is that Putin has helped his goal, which was to create some sort of financial autarky independent of Western payment systems, may have been facilitated by this war.
Now, maybe this is wrong.
Maybe Putin, the conventional wisdom is right.
Some of the stuff I've been saying is right.
Maybe Putin just miscalculated.
He thought there'd be no retaliation and there was and now he's stuck.
Either way, there isn't a great solution here for Biden.
There is no big win here for Biden.
There is no parade here for Biden.
So again, issue number one is inflation.
The economy's in the tank.
Issue number two is Ukraine.
Ain't no good solution there.
Issue number three, according to this Quinnipiac poll, is immigration.
We'll get to that one in just a moment because that's a disaster too.
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Meanwhile, the Biden administration, that third issue, writes.
So we've got inflation, real bad.
We've got Ukraine, not great, Bob.
And now we have a massive, massive border crisis that is about to hit.
So yesterday, a bunch of GOP senators got together to talk about the simple fact that the Democratic Party and Joe Biden have facilitated a massive influx of illegal migration, and it's going to get a lot, lot worse.
Here's Senator Roger Marshall from Kansas talking about it.
They're now presenting their plan to us of what they're going to do when they take Title 42 off.
Their plan is to move people into the country faster.
That's their whole plan.
For all practical purposes, this White House has turned our Border Patrol into ushers.
A maitre d' saying, come on across the border.
And in many Border Patrol sectors, you're seeing them understaffed by about 40% because they simply can't do their job.
So that would have been James Langford, as well as Roger Marshall, as well as John Cornyn talking about the simple fact they are understaffed on the border.
Tom Cotton points out that the border records that have been set by this administration in terms of the amount of illegal immigration, which has not wavered really throughout the course of this administration, it's about to get a lot, lot worse.
Apparently Joe Biden is not resting on his laurels after setting the record last year.
He wants to break his own record in 2022.
We might have more than 2 million illegals crossing our border this year.
And as you said, Harris, those are not people seeking asylum from persecution.
They're coming for one reason.
That's because they know that Joe Biden will let them in.
Well, that is correct.
Hey, how do they know that Joe Biden will let them in?
Because according to the Los Angeles Times today, the Biden administration has reportedly drafted a plan to end a controversial border policy by late May that has prevented most migrants from seeking humanitarian protections at the U.S.
border.
The decision by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is not yet final, according to people familiar with the matter, but it would give officials time to prepare at the border before taking effect.
Department of Homeland Security officials have been in talks for weeks over how to respond to the potential influx of asylum seekers if the Trump-era policy known as Title 42 ended.
The policy invoked a 1944 public health statute to quickly remove migrants either to Mexico or to their home countries in an effort to curb the spread of COVID-19.
The CDC reassesses the need for the policy every two months and is expected to issue its latest decision this week.
Now, I'd just like to point out here that according to the Biden administration, the CDC has the power to issue eviction moratoria.
They believe that the CDC has the power to force employers to vaccinate their employees, or at least OSHA does.
But they're really skittish on whether we can bar people who might be COVID positive from crossing the border.
That's a problem.
Title 42, according to the LA Times, applies to adults traveling alone and to parents traveling with kids.
Last year, the Biden administration exempted kids traveling without a parent from being expelled under the policy.
Over the last two years, border authorities have used Title 42 to expel migrants in about 60% of encounters.
That would be 1.7 million expulsions.
But now, Biden is preparing an end to the policy.
Noah Gottschalk, Global Policy Lead for Oxfam America, which is challenging Title 42, said, quote, Without Title 42, migrants would once again be able to seek asylum in the United States.
Before the policy was enacted, asylum seekers were screened to determine whether they could stay in the U.S.
while simultaneously removing COVID restrictions across the country.
Without Title 42, migrants would once again be able to seek asylum in the United States.
Before the policy was enacted, asylum seekers were screened to determine whether they could stay in the U.S. while their cases moved forward.
So what will be the impact of that?
The impact is going to be absolutely earth-shatteringly dramatic.
According to CBS News, DHS is now developing contingency plans for several possibilities, including worst-case scenario in which 12,000 to 18,000 migrants would enter U.S.
custody daily.
Every day.
18,000 migrants.
Every.
Single.
Daily.
Everyday.
18,000 migrants.
Every single day.
Okay, just to make clear what that means, that means 540,000 migrants entering the United States every single month.
Every month!
Half a million migrants entering the United States every month.
That's what the Biden administration is doing right now.
U.S.
border officials who reported a record 2 million migrants arrested in 2021 are currently encountering an average of 7,100 migrants per day, which is still an extraordinary number.
If pandemic-era capacity limits are eased, CBP short-term facilities across the border would be able to hold about 16,000 migrants on any given day, but they're not processed inside of one day.
So they'd be overwhelmed inside of, like, a day.
The government would need to expand Border Patrol's holding capacity to accommodate between 25,000 and 30,000 migrants in the U.S.
custody on any given day if the worst-case scenario is materialized.
So double it.
Such a scenario would also require the government to dispatch up to 2,500 law enforcement officers, 2,750 support staff, and 1,000 medical personnel to the U.S.-Mexico border.
A DHS official said that the worst-case scenarios are not government projections.
They said that we have to be prepared for the worst.
But if they even increase by a factor of 50%, you're talking about 10,000 migrants every single day, 300,000 migrants a month.
You spread that over the course of, say, six months, and you are talking about 1.8 million.
That's like a moderate estimate.
If you're talking half a million a month, there's about three million illegal immigrants attempting to cross that border every six months.
That's insane.
So yeah, is Joe Biden going to have a successful rest of his presidency?
Let's just put it this way.
He's at 36% now, according to the Pew polls.
And on the top three issues, he's so wildly underwater that it is impossible for him to reach the surface again.
This presidency is cratering.
It's not just cratering.
Half of the Earth has blown off of its axis and is now floating through space.
That's how bad the crater is.
The asteroid has actually separated the Earth into two separate pieces.
That's how bad the polling data is.
So Joe Biden's administration is in serious, serious trouble.
Alrighty, we've reached the end of today's show.
However, we'll be back here later today with an additional hour of content.
In the meantime, go check out one of our newest podcasts, Morning Wire.
Today's episode available right now on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
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On today's episode, the Federal Reserve warns of a possible housing bubble as prices skyrocket, leaked video of a Disney company-wide meeting sparks more controversy, and China locks down Shanghai.
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