With Bernie Sanders firmly in control of the Democratic race, Michael Bloomberg vows to fight on, Trump's intelligence community reportedly warns him that Russia wants him re-elected, and President Trump reviews movies.
I'm Ben Shapiro.
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So, everybody is now beginning to realize that Bernie Sanders is going to be the nominee.
And the media are freaking out about it.
Which is why maybe they should have spent like five seconds asking him, I don't know, sometime over the past 80 years about his viewpoints.
That's a long time.
The man's been in politics since Richard Nixon was president.
And no one has ever asked him, like, a simple question.
You're all for nationalization of industry.
You love Cuba.
You like Venezuela.
Nicaragua.
You like them.
You honeymooned in the USSR.
What's your deal, man?
Like, no.
No questions asked.
No questions asked.
He was just kind of a kooky friendly guy.
Why would we ask him a question?
He's like my kooky socialist uncle.
Why would we?
And so now, you're gonna get him as the nominee, guys.
You, you bought this ticket and you're taking this ride.
The media are freaking out over it because they're beginning to realize that Bernie Sanders is a uniquely vulnerable candidate.
Now the question for Bernie Sanders in the upcoming Trump versus Sanders deathmatch, cage match, the big question for Bernie Sanders is going to be whether Bernie Sanders performs like generic Democrat or whether he performs not like generic Democrat.
So in the last election cycle, this is an open question, really is not answerable until we actually get to the election.
In the last election cycle, one of the great lies about the last election cycle is that Donald Trump wildly outperformed other Republican presidential candidates.
This is simply not true.
He performed basically the same as Mitt Romney.
He actually won fewer absolute votes in Wisconsin than Mitt Romney did.
It's just no one showed up to vote for Hillary Clinton.
The going theory is that Donald Trump, because he was so out of the box, because he said so many crazy things, because of the grabbing the p-word tape, because of all of that, that he would significantly underperform other Republican candidates for president.
Instead, he performed pretty much directly in line with Bush circa 2000, circa 2004, Mitt Romney circa 2012.
The only candidate who wildly underperformed was John McCain, and that was because Barack Obama wildly overperformed.
But, in terms of both absolute vote count and in terms of percentage in particular states, he performed within like a point or two of Mitt Romney in virtually every state did Donald Trump.
People were asking why, and the answer is because so much of the Trump vote and so much of the Romney vote was an anti-left vote.
And so, there was this very solid core of Republicans who were going to, and Independents, who were going to vote against the Democrats no matter what, and Donald Trump didn't change that.
In fact, 2016 ended up not being a referendum on Donald Trump and his personality quirks and foibles and all of his personality flaws.
Instead, it ended up being a referendum on Hillary Clinton.
A bunch of Independents didn't show up to vote for her, a bunch of Democrats didn't show up to vote for her, so Trump Who appeared to be really out of the box, ends up performing exactly like generic Republican, and Hillary Clinton ends up underperforming generic Democrat, or at least underperforming Barack Obama, right?
Because the reality is that that election looks a lot like the election of 2004.
It looks a lot like, in terms of just the straight numbers, looks a lot like the election of 2004.
It doesn't look like 08, looks a little more like 12, and it looks a lot like 2004, 2016.
Okay, now fast forward to 2020.
So Bernie Sanders is a crazy person.
Bernie Sanders is a socialist who threatens the free market structures of the United States, who has suggested direct intervention by the federal government into every area of American life.
He has suggested national rent control, which would destroy the real estate market.
He has suggested a Green New Deal that would essentially nationalize huge swaths of the energy sector.
He has suggested procedures that would ultimately involve nationalizing banks.
He actually wants to communalize or municipalize or nationalize banks.
He wants the post office to become a lender, a first resort.
Bernie Sanders wants the federal government to be first and foremost in your life.
He wants probably the majority of the American economy run, owned, or at least Heavily, heavily supervised by the American government.
That is going to have a real impact.
Also, on foreign policy, Bernie Sanders is anti-American.
What I mean is that he actually believes that America is a nefarious force in the world, that minimizing America's capacity to project force around the world would not only be in the interest of Americans, but presumably in the interest of his socialist brethren around the world, and that we would be less offensive if we were treated inside our own borders, and if we gave the lead to countries like Russia and China and allowed them to do basically whatever they want.
I mean, he literally tweeted out the other day, That America's military budget is too large.
What if we used all of that to redistribute peace around the world, basically?
What if we used all of that money for social safety programs?
I mean, he's campaigning on the basis of the song Imagine.
So, is he going to perform like generic Democrat, like Hillary Clinton, or is he going to underperform Hillary Clinton?
Now, I would bet that he's going to underperform Hillary Clinton.
The reason is that Hillary Clinton performed very solidly with suburban women.
It's a real hole for Trump.
One of the big questions in 2018 was how Trump was going to perform among suburban women.
And he really underperformed in 2018 among suburban women.
In 2016, basically Trump traded rural white men for suburban women.
That was the straight up trade.
Mitt Romney did pretty well with suburban white women particularly.
Married white women, living in the suburbs, he did real well, and he didn't do quite as well among rural voters.
Trump did great among rural voters, and he lost a lot of the suburbs.
And in 2018, that came back to bite him because a lot of the rural folks showed up, but every suburban voter showed up, every urban voter showed up, and the Democrats swamped the Republicans in congressional elections across the country.
Well, what about Bernie?
You know, Hillary Clinton is not threatening to suburban women.
Bernie Sanders is almost tailor-made to make suburban women rethink their vote for Democrats.
Number one, his Bernie bros are just as toxic in terms of their masculinity as anything Trump has ever done.
Number two, he's a real threat.
Remember, George W. Bush in 2004 won the so-called security moms, people who were concerned about their security and the security of their children.
Bush won those people.
They were supposed to go for Kerry.
Bush won them.
And at the same time, suburban women, many of them, have kids, families.
That's why they're living in the suburbs in the first place.
A solid economy is something that they would like.
Bernie threatens that.
Bernie is somebody they find very threatening.
So suburban women could rethink that and maybe cast their vote for Trump.
I said in an earlier podcast that they would hold their nose and vote for Trump.
I'm of course not talking about the women who voted for Trump in 2016.
They don't have to hold their nose.
I'm talking specifically about the female voters who didn't vote Republican in 2018.
Who voted Democrat or who voted Democrat in 2016.
A lot of those women are going to have to look at Bernie and say, OK, he's a threat to my family.
His agenda is a threat to my 401k.
And forget about whatever Trump is, right?
Trump's ad rings home for these women and for many people, right?
He may not be a nice guy, he may say dumb crap on Twitter, but is he a threat to the very status of the American economy?
Clearly not.
The American economy has been doing gangbusters under Trump.
Is he a threat to America on the world stage?
Is he a threat to our American military?
Obviously not.
So the question of Bernie Sanders wildly overperforming Hillary Clinton, I don't think that there's any shot of that.
Does he wildly underperform Hillary Clinton?
Well, I think he does worse among women.
And particularly among suburban women.
I think that he does probably better among young voters, but they don't show up to vote as much and he does way worse among voters over the age of 65.
He's not comforting voters over the age of 65 who show up in droves.
Those voters remember when communism was the bad guy.
Like Bernie Sanders is the guy who watches Air Force One and roots for the Russian revolutionaries.
Bernie Sanders is the guy who watched Red Dawn and he wondered why those juvenile delinquents are up in the woods shooting all the good guys.
So why exactly would anybody over the age of 50 who remembers the Soviet Union, why would they vote for Bernie Sanders?
So the going theory among all of these sort of political wonks is that Bernie will wildly underperform.
Now, it's possible that's wrong.
It's possible that Bernie performs exactly like Hillary, that we are so polarized as a country that you can put anybody, you can put a bag of flaming dog crap at the top of the Democratic ticket and they will perform exactly like Hillary Clinton.
That there is no such thing as underperforming Hillary.
Possible.
Possible, but the Democrats are taking an awful risk, Vader.
They'd better hope that it works.
And members of the media are beginning to realize that.
I'll show you that in just one second.
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Okay, so let's say that Bernie Sanders were to wildly underperform Donald Trump.
So what exactly would that look like in terms of which states are back in play?
The answer is a lot of states are in play.
People tend to think that Trump squeaked it out.
He did squeak it out.
But he squeaked it out because there are a lot of states that were very close that won for Hillary Clinton.
If you look at the battleground states, There were many, many states, many battleground states that were absolute squeakers.
So Trump squeaked it out in Michigan.
He squeaked it out in Pennsylvania.
He squeaked it out in Wisconsin.
Now, there's some new polling that shows that Donald Trump is leading pretty heavily in Wisconsin against whoever runs against him.
So if he wins Wisconsin, the election's over.
If he holds all the other states and he wins Wisconsin, he's re-elected.
Now, the chances that Bernie is going to win Florida, I think, are very bad.
I think that Bernie is going to run horribly in Florida.
First of all, you have the Cuban expatriate population.
Bernie Sanders basically wishes that he had been a member of the Cuban Revolution.
I mean, he literally has, he's on tape talking about how he feels bad that the United States opposed the Castros.
So, he ain't gonna go great in Miami.
Man, there's a big Jewish population, an older Jewish population, that looks at Bernie Sanders, and contrary to public opinion, and popular opinion, they don't look at Bernie Sanders and say, oh look, a fellow old Jew.
Instead they look at Bernie Sanders and see a guy who campaigns with Linda Sarsour, a guy who campaigns with Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, and he's a threat to the state of Israel, they're not gonna love Bernie Sanders either.
So Bernie basically is giving up Florida.
Okay, which means that the other battleground states that Trump won, Those states that were apparently supremely close in favor of Donald Trump, none of those I see moving back into the Democratic aisle, right?
I don't see Ohio moving back Democratic.
In fact, it's gotten redder since President Trump won that state.
You could theoretically see Arizona realigning, but I don't see how Arizona really realigns under Sanders, considering how extreme he is on immigration.
Remember, even Kyrsten Sinema, who is the very kind of at heart left senator from Arizona, she has campaigned to the right.
She's actually voted to the right.
She's voted.
She's famously, during the State of the Union, stood up and cheered the Trump tax cuts because Arizona is fairly Trumpy.
Some of the other states that Democrats were hoping to flip, like Georgia, that is not flipping for Bernie.
Georgia is not flipping blue for Bernie.
It's not a thing that's going to happen.
Indiana, not flipping blue for Bernie.
Iowa has gotten redder, not bluer.
So, there are not a lot of Republican states that are up for grabs, other than Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, in the last election cycle.
And right now, obviously, if you look at Wisconsin, Trump's running away with Wisconsin.
So, heavy odds on Trump to be re-elected if Bernie Sanders is the nominee.
Beyond that, you have New Hampshire, which Bernie tends to outperform in because it's neighboring to his state of Vermont.
But, New Hampshire, Hillary only won that by 0.37% of the vote.
Bernie could alienate- there are a lot of New Hampshireites who are not big into heavy taxation.
That's why they're living in New Hampshire and not Massachusetts.
And so that state could easily flip for Trump.
Minnesota could easily flip for Trump.
Nevada could certainly flip for Trump.
I mean, I don't think Bernie has wild popularity in Nevada, particularly since he's threatening to take away all of the health care plans for union members, even while he lies about it.
You could see Colorado fairly easily shift in favor of President Trump because Colorado is a purple state, it is not an overtly blue state.
Virginia could shift for Trump, especially as a backlash to the Democratic Assembly in Virginia, which has been pushing further and further left.
New Mexico, which was not particularly close, could shift for Trump.
So you could theoretically see a situation in which the vast majority of states go for President Trump.
You could see Trump pick up an additional 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, maybe up to 7 additional states.
President Trump.
And that would be just a whopping blowout.
Can you imagine a world in which Donald Trump walks away from this election cycle winning 37 to 40 states?
Can you imagine that?
Because that's a real possibility.
The media can imagine this.
Here's a quick mashup.
I can't remember who got this.
Maybe the Washington Examiner.
Here's a quick mashup of members of the media absolutely in a state of sheer panic over the fact that Bernie Sanders is likely to be the nominee.
The truth is Bernie Sanders is on its trajectory to be the Democratic nominee.
To me, I just don't see him having any shot in a general election, and I'm panicked.
I am absolutely panicked.
No one but Bernie, Stephanie.
Come on.
He's an anarchist.
He would love to burn down the United States.
If we nominate a socialist like Bernie Sanders, we're gonna lose.
It'll be like George McGovern.
It'll be a blowout.
Tom Perez needs to step down.
He's a joke.
He's a clown.
He can't run the Democratic Party anymore.
It's lost its way.
Just amazing.
So, they're beginning to realize this is a mistake.
Meanwhile, the Democratic upper echelon, they're desperately praying that somebody will provide a rival to Bernie, which is why Bloomberg is still on that stage.
In just one second, we're going to get to the possibility of an open convention.
Right now, over at 538, if you look at their estimates of what they think is going to happen, right now, they say that the number one possibility At 2 in 5 possibility, no majority for any candidate going into the Democratic Convention, which means an open convention.
What does that mean?
I'll explain in just one second.
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Okay, so as I say, 538 right now suggests that the most likely scenario in the Democratic primaries is that nobody emerges with a majority of the delegates.
Now, I think that's wrong.
I think that Sanders probably ends up winning a majority of delegates, but The Democratic Party is desperately, desperately hoping that that's what happens.
Right now, 538 is estimating that Bloomberg could win up to...
A thousand delegates?
Biden could still win up to a thousand delegates, which is why I think that their estimates are way off, unless Biden shows very strong in Nevada tomorrow.
The Nevada caucuses are tomorrow, but this is why you're starting to see this move inside the Democratic Party, trying to hold off Sanders, even if he has a plurality of the delegates.
So you'll remember, back at that bleep show debate the other night, every Democrat on stage was asked, should the delegate leader in the clubhouse be the person who gets the nomination, even if they don't win a majority?
And every single person on the stage said no.
Every single person on the stage said we have to let the process play out.
What they mean by that is open convention.
I get to barter my delegates for a position in your cabinet.
Three of us get to side together and make you the president, or the presidential nominee, Harry Reid, who's the former Senate Majority Leader.
He says that Bernie Sanders should need more than a plurality to win the Democratic nomination.
He came out yesterday and dismissed suggestions from Sanders and his supporters that he should become the nominee if he finishes with a plurality lead ahead of the candidates, but short of the 1,991 delegates needed to secure the nomination outright, according to the Washington Post.
Reid says, here's how I feel about this.
I don't think anybody, Bernie Sanders or anyone else, should simply get the nomination because they have 30% of the delegates and no one else has that many.
Let's say he has 35%.
Well, 65% he doesn't have.
Or that person doesn't have.
I think we have to let the system work its way out.
Right now, that is the likeliest possible scenario.
That is a scenario that is geared for disaster for the Democrats.
If the Democrats deny Bernie the nomination on the basis that he doesn't have a majority of delegates but he has a plurality of delegates, they risk the ire of the Bernie bros simply walking out.
Because remember, Bernie started as a not a member of the Democratic Party, and he probably has no problem with leaving the Democratic Party over this, again.
But this is the reason why Michael Bloomberg is pouring money into this race.
He feels like if he denies a shot to Bernie, right, if he denies it, then maybe, just maybe, his pledges of cash, I mean, it's always worked for him before, right?
Bloomberg has always been able to basically bribe everybody around him in New York City to shut the hell up.
So, Bloomberg's plan is, I don't win as many delegates as Bernie.
He doesn't want a majority of delegates.
I don't have as many delegates, but I do have this giant bag of cash right here.
I'm the person who is most likely to beat Donald Trump, probably.
I'm not giving up a lot of the states.
Like, Bloomberg would be competitive in Florida in a way that Bernie Sanders would not, for example.
So you can see Bloomberg going to the upper echelon of the Democratic Party and saying, okay, you might lose the Bernie bros, but the vast majority of them are going to vote Democrat anyway.
Bernie's coalition is not all that strong.
And here is a giant gob of money.
Here's $3 billion.
Bloomberg is worth $65 billion.
$65 billion.
Okay?
Let's put it this way.
In the last election cycle, the Trump campaign spent about a billion dollars.
Bloomberg could drop $5 billion into this race personally, personally, and not even dent his personal fortune in a serious way.
So he could go to the Democratic Party and say, listen, you know, you may think that you're going to piss off the Bernie bros and the Bernie supporters.
What if I just give you $5 billion?
What if I just, seriously, what if I just sink?
Several million dollars into every single Democratic Party race around the country.
You don't have to worry about fundraising anymore.
You don't have to worry about anything.
I will literally just buy the party.
I will go to the party in Oklahoma, and I will say to the party in Oklahoma, which has never been competitive, here is a hundred million dollars.
Enjoy yourselves.
That's what Bloomberg is hoping for, which is why Bloomberg is staying in this campaign.
And Bloomberg is sounding the alarm, right?
The campaign manager, Bloomberg's campaign manager came out yesterday.
He said there may not be much campaign after Super Tuesday, right?
So Biden better get the hell out because if Biden is still in and he splits the vote with Bloomberg and Bernie just runs right down that left flank, right?
If he takes the inside rail and wins all those primaries, it's over.
What they are saying basically is, just deny Bernie the nomination, just deny him the nomination, and Michael Bloomberg will sweep in with this giant bag of cash, and then he will make things right with the world.
Here was Bloomberg's campaign manager suggesting that basically Biden needs to get the hell out right now.
I think Mike is clearly firmly in second place in March states.
Our polling shows that.
Public polling shows that.
It also shows Bernie Sanders growing that lead over Mike and everyone else in the field.
And there is a real possibility because California is so big and so early in the schedule this year that Bernie racks up a lead in that state on Super Tuesday that quite frankly is just uncatchable.
Um, and so, uh, I think this, you know, listen, I think we may know a lot about this campaign very early.
It may be that there's not much of a campaign in March after that date, uh, but we're certainly fighting as hard as we can to make sure that there is.
Yeah, I mean, that, that is them putting up the smoke signal to the Democratic Party.
Guys, see this bag of cash?
You see how it's gradually receding into the distance?
You see that?
You see that happening right now?
Well, maybe you better urge some of these other people to get out of the way.
Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren, Mongo, just punching that horse from Blazing Saddles.
So I said yesterday that Elizabeth Warren, in the middle of that debate, just decided that she was gonna punch a horse.
No one knew why, right?
She's in the Bernie Sanders lane, and she's like, what if I just punch Bloomberg?
Just over and over, for no reason.
And Mongo, from Blazing Saddles, punching the horse.
Well, she continues to punch the horse.
She's out there today saying that she used to teach contract law, and she's offering to release women from their NDAs by texting an NDA release to Michael Bloomberg to release them from their NDAs because she punched Bloomberg over all of this.
I mean, she's so terrible, Elizabeth Warren, and she's desperately trying to get back.
Into this race.
She's also wildly dishonest, but if her strategy is to tear down Bloomberg, she's going to make Sanders the nominee, right?
I mean, that is obviously what is going on.
This is a two-person race, and it's going to be even more of a two-person race after Biden gets destroyed tomorrow.
Biden is toast.
Okay, Biden was not even alive on that debate stage.
Nobody paid one whit of attention to Joe Biden.
Your national poll leader for nearly wire to wire.
That guy?
Joe Biden, he was on the stage and everybody treated him like he was a piece of the scenery.
They treated him like his podium was there and he was not behind it.
I think he's gonna get shellacked tomorrow in Nevada.
I think he's gonna get shellacked in South Carolina.
I think that Biden is done.
And that means this is a two-man race, Sanders and Bloomberg, which really means that Sanders has the upper hand right here.
And that's why Bloomberg points out, and he's correct, that the real winner of the debate the other night was Donald Trump.
The real winner in the debate last night was Donald Trump.
Because I worry that we may very well be on the way to nominating somebody who cannot win in November.
And if we choose a candidate who appeals to a small base like Senator Sanders, it will be a fatal error.
Okay, so that's his campaign.
That's his campaign.
We're gonna get to more of this and we're gonna get to President Trump himself and his own foibles.
And as I've said, if Bernie Sanders is the nominee, Trump does not have room to make a mistake.
Because if Trump loses to Bernie Sanders, that is on no one, no one but President Trump.
Everything else is baked into the cake.
Okay, we'll get to that in just one second.
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That is K-E-E-P-S dot com slash ben, keeps.com slash ben, and receive Okay, so, with all of this said, with Michael Bloomberg vowing to fight on, and with Michael Bloomberg having botched that debate, and with Michael Bloomberg's momentum apparently blunted, and Elizabeth Warren sitting there just wailing away at him for no apparent reason, the onus is now on President Trump to beat Bernie Sanders.
Okay?
Beat him like a red-headed stepchild.
That is what Trump has to do in this election.
And there's good news.
President Trump is a weapon.
The man is fantastic at destroying people.
Himself too, but he's fantastic at destroying other people.
He took Hillary Clinton, he broke her into little pieces and then he flushed her.
Donald Trump is a destroyer.
He's the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man.
They chose the form of their destroyer and now he has come to New York City.
And Donald Trump is fantastic at this, right?
You give him a piece of material and he's like a dog with a bone.
He's never going to let it go.
As I pointed out the other day, after Bloomberg went after Bernie and his Lakeside Dasha, after that happened, I said, if you think that was bad when Bloomberg went after Bernie, wait until Donald Trump makes a little model of the Lakeside Dacha and starts bringing it around to his campaign rallies.
Wait until he actually does a campaign in front of that Lakeside Dacha in Vermont on Lake Champlain.
Wait until Donald Trump goes to that Dacha and pries up a piece of the floorboard and then physically beats Bernie Sanders on stage with it.
Like, Donald Trump may do any or all of these things, That is Donald Trump's specialty.
He's got a lot to work with with Bernie Sanders.
He's got ads he can work with in Pennsylvania.
Right now he's trailing Bernie in Pennsylvania according to the latest polling.
Not a single ad has been put out in Pennsylvania about the fact that Bernie Sanders wants to ban fracking, which is responsible for tens if not hundreds of thousands of jobs in the state of Pennsylvania.
I mean, nothing has been done in the state of Pennsylvania about the fact that Pittsburgh, you know what the number one industry in Pittsburgh is?
The number one industry in Pittsburgh is the healthcare industry.
If you nationalize the healthcare industry, you know what happens to a lot of those jobs?
They're gone, right?
Everybody in health insurance?
Kaput.
It's amazing to me how whenever people talk about job loss, and they talk about trade, you know what would create an awful lot of job loss?
The millions of people working in healthcare and health insurance would be out of work if nationalization of the industry were to happen.
Those jobs don't automatically get transferred over to the government gang.
A lot of people end up out of work.
Pittsburgh.
It moved from a steel-working town into a healthcare-centric town, filled with hospitals and medical centers.
What do you think happens when Bernie nationalizes the healthcare system?
When he goes full NHS, which by the way is the second step to Medicare for All.
Medicare for All starts with low reimbursement rates, then when hospitals can no longer perform, the hospitals end up nationalized and the doctors end up working directly for the government.
That is the way that that ends up working.
So, What do you think Trump is going to do with all that in Pennsylvania?
The answer is an awful lot, an awful lot.
What do you think Trump is going to do about the fact that Bernie Sanders, in the state of Michigan, stands against the capacity of auto companies to build autos that the American people like?
Remember, Bernie basically wants to shut down the fossil fuel industry.
But what do you think makes the economy of Michigan go?
I mean, that's an auto-based economy.
So, Trump has plenty to work with, in other words.
So, what this means is that Trump has to avoid the big boo-boo.
This is always the problem.
So, Trump has two specific obstacles.
One is the possibility of an economic downturn.
That one is outside of his control.
And the other is how Trump acts.
And that one is certainly within his control.
And I know that we in the Republican Party have this fondness for treating Donald Trump as sort of a quasi-child.
And when he does something wrong, it's like, oh, isn't that cute?
And then when he does something right, like, oh, we're so proud of him!
Okay, but here's the deal.
President Trump is, he's a, the man is in his 70s.
He's inordinately successful.
He ran for president once, and he became president.
He obviously has the capacity to do smart things, so why would we not want him to do those things all the time, especially when the alternative... People said it was a Flight 93 election against Hillary Clinton, and I argued, it's not really a Flight 93 election.
Like, it's bad, but it isn't a Flight... It's not like the plane... America's plane is going down either way, so charge the cockpit.
With Bernie, it's a Flight 93 election, right?
You have now radicalized half the population into almost full-scale communism.
This is a Flight 93 election, so Trump has to go for broke.
And not only does he have to go for broke, he has to run a strong campaign because it's on him.
If you get a candidate as weak as Bernie, as unpopular as Bernie's policies are, The American people do not want an octogenarian socialist who has pledged to destroy the American economy and our foreign policy standing as President of the United States.
If you lose to that, that's on you.
That's on you.
So there are only two possibilities for how Trump loses this election.
One is the economy.
The second is Trump.
So on the economy, the news today is that the treasury yields are absolutely collapsing, which suggests that people are very wary about the economic future.
The way that this works is that the demand for a treasury bond and the yield of that treasury bond work in inverse proportions.
So the more demand there is for a treasury bond, the more the yield drops.
So when the yield drops dramatically, that means that people are investing a lot of money into bonds.
And that's what's been happening in the 10-year treasury note yield.
The 10-year, this is according to marketwatch.com, the 10-year treasury note yield was down three basis points to 1.495, the lowest since last September.
The 2-year note rate edged 1.4 basis points lower to 1.381%.
basis points lower to 1.381%.
The 30-year bond yield slipped 4.2% basis points to 1.930 percentage points, falling well below its previous all-time low of 1.95%.
According to MarketWatch.com, global equity benchmarks and U.S.
stock futures fell Friday as the growing number of cases of the coronavirus outside China, especially in South Korea, raised fears that the damage to supply chains could hit several major Asian economies, which are linchpins for industries like semiconductors and automobiles.
So people are banking on the fact that coronavirus may be destroying supply chains.
This is certainly true, by the way.
I mean, I work with businesses who work with folks in Hong Kong, and they've been just stifled.
Like, everything is closed over in Hong Kong.
Everything in China is closed.
It's one of the reasons why you saw, I believe it was Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, suggesting that in the future people are going to start investing in American factories because, I mean, do you really want to invest in a country where every five years there's a SARS or a MERS or a coronavirus outbreak?
And we're going to get to more of the economic news, which is a little scary for the Trump candidacy and for the global economy, which is Even more important.
We'll get to that in just one second.
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So as I say, threat number one to campaign Trump 2020 is the economy.
If the economy collapses, anybody could be president.
This is what we learned in 2008 when John McCain had finally, finally peaked in the polls against Barack Obama.
The economy collapsed, boom, blowout for Obama.
Okay, the same thing could happen here.
Right now, MarketWatch is reporting global equity benchmarks and U.S.
stock futures fell Friday.
As the growing number of cases of the coronavirus outside China, especially in South Korea, raised fears that the damage to supply chains could hit several major Asian economies, which are linchpins for industries like semiconductors and automobiles.
Investors say it's unclear when workers will be able to return to factory floors.
Some forecasters suggest car manufacturing and other industries may not return to usual production activity until March.
The bearish investor sentiment in risk assets helped boost demand for haven bonds, which have seen sharp inflows all week.
Long-term treasury yields are on the verge or have already broken through key levels that investors say could presage further yield declines.
Worries about a Chinese and Asian economic slowdown spilling over into the United States have also lifted traders' expectations for interest rate cuts later in the year, despite speeches by senior Fed Reserve officials suggesting no further easing was imminent.
So it's possible that you get a little more inflation in order to jog things.
In economic data, U.S.
existing home sales for January were due this morning.
Economists pulled by MarketWatch expect sales to run an annualized pace of 5.39 million down slightly from 5.54 million in December.
So people are very worried, obviously, about coronavirus and the fallout they're from.
So that is risk number one to Trump.
That one's outside his control.
Then there's the stuff that's in his control.
And this is the stuff like, don't look corrupt.
Right?
Sounds reasonable, right?
I mean, the president is not corrupt, right, as far as I can tell.
I know that the left has been shouting about emoluments and all of this and President Trump abusing the power of his office in order to accomplish certain private goals.
I mean, I think the president is vindictive and thin-skinned.
I think that the president has a weird notion that the presidency of the United States is sort of like a talk radio call line, and that he should use his Twitter account in order to yell at members of his administration.
But every time that the president is told by his advisors to back off, he generally does.
It's very rare the president overrules his advisors, and then just goes and does something anyway.
When he does, it ends up badly.
When people inside his administration are like, Mr. President, why don't you not deploy Rudy Giuliani to Ukraine to go root around in 2016-related material, and Trump's like, I don't care, I like Rudy, do it.
It doesn't work out great.
He's had this one bugaboo, and it's been in his ear, this bug in his ear, like an earworm, it's been there since 2016.
And that is, President Trump believes he has been unfairly denied credit for his stunning victory in 2016 because the media have continued to focus in on the interference of Russia in the election.
He's been saying this for four years at this point.
That, you guys keep focusing on Russia, Russia this and Russia that.
And you keep saying that Russia interfered at my behest and all of this stuff.
And it wasn't.
It was me.
OK, so a few things are true.
One.
Trump won the election.
Second, Hillary lost the election.
Third, Russia did try to interfere with the election through WikiLeaks and distribution of information.
Four, the extent of that interference online, particularly on Facebook, has been wildly exaggerated by the media and by the Senate Democrats, who suggest that Facebook was just papered with Russian propaganda that shifted the election.
There's very little evidence that is the case.
As I've talked about before, the actual statistics on Russian Facebook posts, and their reach is astonishingly minimal.
I mean, seriously.
They are so unsuccessful on Facebook, it makes... As one of the companies that is most successful on Facebook, I can tell you, the numbers that were being put out for Russia's reach were, like, ridiculous.
Like, I have more reach on my personal Facebook page in one month than the entire Russian government had in all of 2016, in terms of its sort of interference, or at least its sort of attention, how many people were paying attention to it on Facebook.
But, All these things can be simultaneously true.
Russia tried to interfere.
Russia tried to interfere on behalf of Trump because they didn't like Hillary Clinton and they were angry at Hillary Clinton.
Russia was aiming for chaos, which they achieved.
The Democrats have maximized that to suggest that Trump didn't legitimately win and that this has got under Trump's skin.
And that's the last one that is a problem.
The reason the last one is a problem is because when something is under Trump's skin, he allows himself to make stupid decisions.
And this is why he was talking to Roger Stone, and this is why he is now talking about pardoning Roger Stone, which makes it look to the general public as though Roger Stone was trying to funnel him information about WikiLeaks, and then lying in order to cover for President Trump, and then went to jail, and then Trump pardoned him.
Right, so this is why it's really stupid for Trump to talk about exonerating Roger Stone and getting involved in the Roger Stone case.
President Trump is the head of the Justice Department.
William Barr, the Attorney General, just recommended a sentence from the Justice Department.
Now, the case itself, the controversy over the sentencing, was very stupid, because the prosecutors apparently didn't run their sentence recommendation up the flagpole.
You're supposed to do that.
In major cases, you go to the AG and the AG's office, and you say, we'd like to recommend this sentence, and then the AG's office, presumably, Suggests, okay, that sentence is good, or that sentence is bad.
Okay, they didn't do that.
That's why AG Barr stepped in.
But, at no point did AG Barr suggest that the case was illegitimate.
At no point did William Barr say, this case is wrong.
So that means that the AG's office approved the case.
But Trump is ripping on the case, right?
Trump is like, Roger Stone should be exonerated.
Now, again, there are problems with the case, namely that the chief juror in the case, the jury foreman, was somebody who hated Roger Stone, apparently, who hated President Trump.
That's a good case for a mistrial.
It's a good case for a new trial with a better jury.
It is not a case that Roger Stone was, in fact, innocent of the charges that were being thrown at him, namely lying to Congress and trying to threaten another witness, Randy Credico, and try to push Randy Credico to suggest that he was, in fact, the go-between to WikiLeaks, whereas Roger Stone was trying to act as a go-between to WikiLeaks.
In any case, Trump should not get involved in any of this, right?
Trump should say, let justice take its course.
I wasn't involved in this, which he wasn't, right?
By all available evidence, Roger Stone would call up Trump and be like, you know what WikiLeaks is doing?
You know what WikiLeaks is doing?
All this stuff.
And Trump would be like, oh, that's fine.
Okay.
And then you hang up.
And that was like the whole thing.
But what the media would like it to be is Trump saying to Roger Stone, go tell WikiLeaks X, Y and Z. And there's no evidence that ever happened.
So, you know, Trump has always, honestly, I find this so bizarre.
Trump has pretty much always been willing to let his subordinates burn.
But apparently with Roger Stone, he is not doing that at this point because Roger Stone has shown loyalty to him.
In any case, here was Trump yesterday suggesting that he would love to see Roger Stone exonerated.
This is a dumb political move because if you don't believe this turns into a Bernie Sanders campaign ad, an anti-corruption Bernie Sanders campaign ad, then you are likely wrong.
Here is President Trump talking about Roger Stone.
I want the process to play out.
I think that's the best thing to do.
Because I'd love to see Roger exonerated.
And I'd love to see it happen.
Because I personally think he was treated very unfairly.
They talk about witness tampering.
But the man that he was tampering didn't seem to have much of a problem with it.
I think they know each other for years.
And it's not like the tampering that I see On television, when you watch a movie, that's called tampering.
Okay.
Why?
Again, this one falls under why.
Why don't you just say, I want to see the process play out and then just stop.
How about that?
How about like after a sentence, you just take a break, just like a three second break and think to yourself.
Do I need to say more?
Do I need to say more?
Instead, the logoria kicks in.
It's like, I'm just going to spill that out there.
OK, in other news today, President Trump's reaction to a new report that Russia attempts to tamper in this election.
This is going to lead the Democrats again to have campaign material, depending on how Trump reacts to it.
So there's a report today out of the Washington.
Okay, so a few things.
One.
Again, many things can be true at once.
One, of course Russia is going to try to interfere in 2020.
They successfully threw America into chaos in 2016 by the mere fact of their interference.
Two, are they interfering on behalf of Trump or are they putting out signals that they're interfering on behalf of Trump specifically in order to give the media a rationale to attack Trump and to give Democrats a rationale for leaking that out there just to get under Trump's skin further and to gin up more chaos, right?
If Russia came out and said, we're interfering on behalf of the Democrats, then Trump would be like, Okay, well we better crack down on this stuff now, now, now.
But instead, if they say we're interfering on behalf of Trump, Trump will try to downplay it, because that's what he did in 2016.
And then the Democrats will suggest that he's in cahoots with the Russians again, which of course is exactly what they are doing.
The day after the February 13th briefing to lawmakers, Trump berated Joseph Maguire, the outgoing DNI, for allowing it to take place, people familiar with the exchange said.
Trump cited the presence in the briefing of Representative Adam Schiff, Democrat of California, who led the impeachment proceedings against him as a particular irritant.
During the briefing to the House Intelligence Committee, Trump's allies challenged the conclusions, arguing that Trump had been tough on Russia and strengthened European security.
Some intelligence officials viewed the briefing as a tactical error, saying that the official who delivered the conclusion spoke less pointedly or left it out.
They would have avoided angering the Republicans.
That intelligence official, Shelby Pearson.
As an aide to McGuire, has a reputation of delivering intelligence in somewhat blunt terms.
The president announced Wednesday he was replacing McGuire with Richard Grinnell, the ambassador to Germany and an aggressively vocal Trump supporter.
Some current and former officials speculated the briefing may have played a role in McGuire's removal.
Two administration officials said that the timing was coincidental.
Grinnell had been in discussions with the administration about taking on a new role.
So this is being set up right now as another Trump fires the messenger in order to replace him with somebody who's going to suppress Russian interference in the election, right?
This is the Democratic narrative.
The Democratic narrative is going to be that President Trump is firing his outgoing DNI in order to cover up the fact that Russia is interfering on his behalf in the 2020 election and replacing him with a hack like Rich Grenell, right?
That is what the narrative is going to be.
And watch as the media build this out over the course of the next week.
What should President Trump do about that?
He should just acknowledge the obvious.
Of course Russia is attempting to manipulate our election.
We are going to use all of our law enforcement resources available to prevent Russia from interfering in the 2020 election.
We accept what our intelligence officials say and we are going to stand and we are going to stop all of this.
Where would Democrats go with that?
The answer is they wouldn't have any place to go with that, right?
If Trump actually just said that.
If he just said, yes, of course the Russians are going to try to interfere.
They tried to interfere last time.
And their interference last time didn't mean that Hillary lost.
She lost because she lost.
And if I win this time, it's because I win.
But we are going to dedicate all law enforcement resources to ensuring that America's elections are untampered with by foreign actors.
It wouldn't give the Democrats any place to go.
Instead, because Trump is so thin-skinned about this, the likelihood is that Trump is going to simply deny that Russia is interfering.
I mean, he's done that publicly, right?
This is why he was focused on Ukraine.
And then that will give Sanders something to run on.
It will give Sanders something to run on because Sanders will then say, Trump doesn't care about Russian interference in the election.
He likes it.
He wants it.
It's why he's downplaying it.
He fired his own acting DNI.
He replaced them because he didn't like the message.
He wants the interference.
This is the narrative they were unspooling even throughout the Ukraine investigation was if we don't impeach him now, he's going to cheat in the upcoming election.
Now you can see them building the narrative over the next two weeks.
Watch.
This is going to be the going narrative for the next two weeks.
The going narrative is going to be the intelligence officials told Trump the Russians are interfering.
And then Trump responded by firing the messenger in order to cover up Russian interference.
You watch.
This is where it's going.
All of this could be solved with a little bit of forethought by the Trump administration.
All they have to do is say, of course Russia is going to try to interfere.
They root for chaos.
And you know who else is rooting for chaos?
You guys, by maximizing the impact of that.
And also, we are dedicating law enforcement to stopping all of this.
That would be, and you can see that the media are itching for the narrative, right?
The media want the narrative.
How do you know that the media want the narrative?
The way that this is all, the way that they report these issues.
So the Daily Beast the other day issued a tweet.
The tweet suggested that President Trump had offered Julian Assange a pardon.
Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks guy, a pardon in return for saying that Russia didn't interfere in 2016.
That turned out to be not true, like at all.
There was a legal filing from Assange's attorney that contained that allegation.
One of the beautiful things about legal filings is that they are not subject to defamation.
So if someone says something in a legal filing, they can allege anything.
I can allege that John Kerry loves sex with animals in a legal filing.
As long as I do it in a legal filing, it's not defamatory.
For the record, I have no evidence that John Kerry engages in bestiality.
But if I put that in a legal filing, then that is not subject to defamation or slander.
It isn't.
So this was put in a legal filing.
The Daily Beast reported it as fact.
They put out there a tweet reporting as fact that Trump solicited Julian Assange to say that WikiLeaks was not a Russian tool and that Russia had not interfered in 2016 and that he would offer him a pardon in return.
As it turns out, it was just Dana Rohrabacher going into freelancing.
So Dana Rohrabacher, who's long been quite friendly with the Russian government, The former California congressman.
He confirmed in a new interview that during a three-hour meeting at the Ecuadorian embassy in August of 2017, he told Julian Assange he would get President Trump to give him a pardon if he turned over information proving the Russians had not been the source of internal DNC emails published by Wikileaks.
Rohrabacher is a conspiracy theorist, apparently, who believes that Seth Rich was murdered by the DNC in order to cover up their own internal problems and all of this kind of stuff.
So, Rohrabacher is basically freelancing, offering Assange things.
He has no authority to do that.
The media reported it as fact in the original instance.
Okay, just because Data Rohrabacher was going and offering Assange something doesn't mean he had any authority from Trump.
In fact, Rohrabacher said he didn't have any authority from Trump.
So there's no evidence for it at all.
The media ran with it anyway.
So the media are itching for this narrative that Trump doesn't care about Russian interference.
Trump should not play into this.
The reason being, number one, because it isn't true.
I mean, his administration presumably will do its job.
Law enforcement will do its job in trying to ferret this stuff out.
And number two, I don't think that Trump I have a hard time saying that Trump wouldn't like it, right?
I mean, because again, Trump did have Donald Trump Jr.
and company meeting at Trump Tower with Russian lawyers who ended up offering nothing.
They showed willingness to solicit.
So I'm not going to go as far as saying that Trump wouldn't love to see it, but I will say that Trump doesn't need it and he'd be a fool to signal to the American public that either he needs it or that he would accept it in the aftermath of all the hubbub about 2016.
And so the reason I say this again, Is because Trump is gonna run against a very beatable Democrat.
If he does not win re-election, that is basically going to be on President Trump.
Okay, time for some things I like, and then some things that I hate.
So...
Things that I like today.
I have to admit, Donald Trump is... I would watch Donald Trump's movie reviews.
I would.
I think they'd be highly amusing.
So last night at one of his big rallies, he decided to break out a movie review.
He was talking about Parasite.
Now, he hasn't seen Parasite.
So, typically, when you review a movie, you kind of want to see the movie.
Like, I'll review a trailer and I'll admit to you if I haven't seen the trailer.
If I haven't seen the full movie.
I've seen Parasite.
I think Parasite was overrated.
I think it was wildly overrated.
I could do a whole segment, maybe I will at some point, on why I think that Parasite was so wildly overrated and why I think that Parasite won.
The answer, basically, is because it is another one of these class warfare metaphors that the Academy seems to love.
It's a very obvious metaphor.
It's kind of a ridiculous metaphor, but as long as it's a Marxist metaphor for materialism and how materialism corrupts people's brains and all this, then the Academy loves it.
In any case, Parasite was not the best movie of the year.
In fact, I don't think it was one of the five best movies of the year, but it's not a bad movie.
It's a well-made movie.
President Trump went off on Parasite because it's South Korean.
So here's President Trump's movies reviews.
All right, here we go.
How bad were the Academy Awards this year?
Did you see it?
And the winner is a movie from South Korea.
What the hell was that all about?
We got enough problems with South Korea with trade.
On top of it, they give them the best movie of the year.
Was it good?
I don't know.
You know, I'm looking for, like, where... Let's get Gone with the Wind.
Can we get, like, Gone with the Wind back, please?
Sunset Boulevard.
So many great movies.
I like movies.
Black and white movies.
Movies with Bette Davis.
Unbelievable.
Wait, can we have some good movies back?
Have you ever seen Rocky?
Rocky's a great movie.
I like Rocky a lot.
Godfather.
Good movie.
I don't like these new movies.
They're newfangled things.
Movies.
Okay.
I mean, let's be real.
The man is doing comedy at his campaign rallies.
Again, none of that's a problem for him, right?
The reason I put that in things I like is because the part of President Trump that is charming, the loggeria that is charming, is when he's doing stuff like this.
No one cares.
This is trending number one on Twitter.
If you think that has any impact on him, it does not.
But, you know, with that said, run a discipline campaign, like, just a little bit.
Okay, other things that I like today.
So I've been watching this new series from Showtime.
It's available on Amazon Prime.
Escape at Dannemora.
It is quite well-made.
Ben Stiller directed it.
He did an excellent job with the direction.
And it stars Benicio Del Toro, who is sufficiently creepy, as well as Paul Dano, who's been really underutilized by Hollywood.
He's great in There Will Be Blood, and then he's very good in this as well.
Patricia Arquette is in it as well, and she plays one of the worst characters in screen history.
I mean, she's really quite evil in this, but she's stupid evil.
In any case, here is a little bit of the trailer for Escape at Dannemore, which is the story of two inmates at the Clinton Correctional Facility in upstate New York who broke out and, of course, then proceeded to be on the lam for almost a month.
It was a big story back in 2015.
Here's a little bit of the preview.
I want to be a part of your dream.
If you feel that it's real, I'm on trial.
And I'm here again, you're present.
You focus on something in your mind.
Through a glass of your tongue.
You feel it in your heart.
It's the one dangerous one.
And you commit to it.
To the pilot's phone control.
It will come true.
Take that to the pilot's phone.
So it's not the fastest series.
It's fairly slow.
But the acting is first, first rate.
And it really, more than anything else, is about the relationship between these two inmates and this... and basically this...
Prison factory person now, what's it?
What's the the episode of the series that is the most important is there's an episode of the series very late in the series in Which you learn what these guys did what their crimes actually weren't it completely changes the dynamic of the series It's quite good.
It's definitely worth the watch.
It's definitely rated R. You can go check that out escape at Danimora It's good stuff and and worth the watch okay time for a quick thing that I hate Remember Representative Katie Hill who was schtuping her subordinates?
Remember that?
Remember how she was schtuping her subordinates and then she was breaking up with her subordinates and she was living in a thruple with her husband and with one of her female subordinates?
Well now, she's being trotted out as a victim.
So this is what the left does.
The left does this routinely.
They find somebody who did a bad thing.
That person is forced to leave because that person did a bad thing.
And then they rehabilitate that person as a victim of the right.
So Katie Hill was not a victim of the right.
She was a victim of the fact that she is a pathetic loon bag.
Okay?
Not because she is bisexual, because whatever.
Because she was stripping her subordinates.
I mean, imagine that they're a Republican congressperson, a male, and he had Basically used a subordinate in his own congressional office for a thruple with his wife.
That person would be out of Congress in half a heartbeat, right?
Half a heartbeat.
But because Katie Hill is a bisexual woman and a Democrat, right?
Not a Republican.
That means she's a victim.
So George Stephanopoulos has her on Good Morning America and tries to rehabilitate her by suggesting that the reason that she was ousted from Congress is because people are biphobic.
I didn't even know that's a thing.
Biphobic.
Right?
I've heard homophobic before.
I've heard like Islamophobic.
I've heard like a very...
I've heard arachnophobic.
I've never heard biphobic.
That's a weird one.
Anyway, here's Katie Hill suggesting that the reason that she was forced to leave Congress is not because she's an irresponsible heretic who mistreats her subordinates.
It really is because she's bisexual, which no one cared about when she was elected because she was openly bisexual then.
It's also partly because I'm a woman.
We haven't seen as many, right, of the sex scandals with women.
But the bisexuality is a huge part of it, right?
There's a fantasy element of it.
There's biphobia that is rampant still, and certainly misunderstanding of what bisexuality is.
And it's sensationalizing, right?
The headlines are much, much better than just, oh, Congresswoman has, you know, affair with a former campaign staffer.
No.
Actually, if you'd had an affair with a male staffer, and he had been in your employ at the time, and then you had apparently mistreated him, that would be a very, very large story as well.
It is worth noting, by the way, that the senator from Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema, is openly bisexual, and no one cares.
No one.
Right?
No one has made a peep about this, because...
Honestly, who cares?
Like, whatever, man.
Whatever floats your boat.
It's a free country.
But the attempt by George Stephanopoulos to paint this as another example of American bigotry, I find it so tiresome that the media have to constantly be in search of examples of American bigotry.
Everything turns into an example of America's intolerance.
If only we were more European in our attitudes about sex, well, that would solve all of our problems.
If only we were more laissez-faire in our... I feel like, as a country, we are fairly laissez-faire in our attitudes toward sex.
Are we not?
I mean, we had a president of the United States in the 1990s who was schtipping everything on two legs.
And we basically got over it.
We have a president right now who's been married three times and was caught schtipping porn stars and then paying them off for their silence.
And everybody was kind of like, okay, whatever, man.
And again, we have a Senator who's bisexual, and no one cares about that.
We've had House people, House members and Senators.
Has there been a gay Senator?
There's certainly been House members who are gay.
I believe there's been a couple of gay Senators.
And then we have also the first openly gay Ambassador, Rick Grinnell, who's about to become the first openly gay Cabinet official, and no one cares about that.
So can we be spared the, like, when you do something deeply wrong because you're a member of a protected minority group?
It must be because of the bigotry, not because you did anything wrong.
So when Maxine Waters is routinely corrupt, that's not because she's black.
When people point that out, it's because she's deeply corrupt.
There are lots of black people in Congress who are not deeply corrupt.
When we criticized Barack Obama as president, it wasn't because he was black, it's because he was a bad president.
When we criticize Katie Hill, it's because she was mistreating her staff in a way that any other candidate would be forced to step down.
Any other congressperson would be forced to step down.
She's bisexual.
But the attempt by George Stephanopoulos to try and pin Katie Hill's downfall not on Katie Hill, but on evil Republicans who are secretly staring at the pictures of her and her paramours revealed on red state.
Sure.
I know this is the fantasy world in which Democrats live, but it ain't real, okay?
Katie Hill was ousted because she was corrupt and because she was terrible and because she's a bad person.
She was not ousted because she's bisexual.
Alrighty.
We'll be back here later today with two additional hours of content, so stick around for that.
Otherwise, we'll be back here on Monday.
We'll wrap up.
The Nevada caucus is in a bow for you.
We'll tell you what is coming next as we move steadily and increasingly toward a Trump vs. Bernie Sanders 2020.
Man, what a year this is gonna be.
I'm Ben Shapiro.
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