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Dec. 15, 2019 - The Ben Shapiro Show
01:03:55
Frank Luntz | The Ben Shapiro Show Sunday Special Ep. 81
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I've already been in 30 states.
I got another three or four more to go before we reach New Year's I do know how mad we are.
I do know how how this ugliness this Damn desire to be heard not to listen not to learn but to be heard How it's undermining so many things and it doesn't have to be this way.
- Hey, hey, and welcome to This is the Ben Shapiro Show Sunday special.
Today we are joined by Dr. Frank Luntz.
Frank is the pioneer of the instant response focus group technique and the New York Times bestselling author of Words That Work.
He's best known for his political commentary, with more media outlets turning to him to understand American voters than any other political pollster.
Frank, thanks so much for taking the time to stop by.
I really appreciate it.
What, 50 minutes from the House?
So it's actually pretty close.
You're a convenient guess.
It made perfect sense.
So why don't we start with what's on everybody's mind.
How do you assess Trump's, President Trump's standing leading up to the 2020 election?
Does he still have control of the IRS?
Can I still be audited?
On an accomplishment level, what he's actually done is incredibly impressive.
The unemployment rate at a 50-year low, Black unemployment at an all-time low, Latino unemployment at an all-time low, wages going up, the economy strong, even with all the yelling over China.
Economically, it's been pretty incredible.
Tax policy, people get to keep more of their hard-earned income.
In foreign policy, we're not in the middle of a war.
On what he's done, it's pretty impressive.
On how he says it, how he communicates, I'm not sure how much of it I like.
He and I have talked infrequently, but enough, and I've expressed some concern.
I'll give you an example.
He likes to talk about building the wall, which I'm sure that most of your viewers appreciate.
The problem is, when you talk about building a wall, you've got 40% support, 60% opposition.
If you talk about building a barrier, it goes up to 60%.
If you talk about using human intelligence, technology, a physical barrier where it's necessary, if you're precise about it, it goes up to 79% support.
Trump's idea of instilling border security?
It's a winner.
The public supports it.
Democrats support it.
But when you just talk about a wall, it's a great applause line for his supporters, but it doesn't get you where you need to go.
And on issues like this, sometimes what he says actually undermines what he wants to do.
So a lot of his supporters will say, well, the world of politics has changed.
He understands that we live in a base-only world, that the moderates don't exist anymore, there aren't any swing voters, it's just a matter of getting your base excited.
And also, they might say something like, well, if Trump says build a barrier, then the next thing that happens, the media just spin on that language, and suddenly barriers are bad.
Because no matter what Trump does, the media will always caricature it as the greatest of all evils.
So, you obviously spent your career picking the words that work, trying to help people figure out what's the best way to express themselves, to be convincing.
Does that matter in an era of Trump?
Have things changed fundamentally?
Yes.
You're correct.
They have fundamentally changed.
And I have to admit, I had an argument with the president over stuff that he said about Baltimore, which is a very troubled city.
I know something of it because I used to go to sporting events there, and on occasion I would travel into the community.
And it is not a healthy city.
But it should not be derided that way.
I just, I have, I felt very bad for the people because I thought they were being insulted because one of their congressmen was challenging Trump directly.
And what I got back from his campaign manager is that I'm elitist.
I come from the old-fashioned establishment.
I don't understand that under Donald Trump, we call things what they are.
And my parents taught me at a very young age, and I should know because I'm overweight today, that you don't walk up to a fat person and say, hey, you realize you're fat.
You don't say everything that comes to your mind.
You don't insult people when you don't need to.
And if you disagree with them, you find a way to bring them over rather than trying to bludgeon them.
And so his communication for me, and I've said this to him, is very problematic.
But I won't let that get in the way of what he's accomplished.
And I won't let what he's accomplished get in the way of how he communicates it.
They are both important.
America's a great country because we're a good country.
It is not that we have a wonderful GPA, a GPA, wonderful GNP.
It is not that we are, geez, my head is in academia.
It's not that we are wealthy.
It's that when people are hurting, Americans come.
When people are suffering, we're the ones who do something about it.
We're always the first and we don't ask for a thank you.
We just do it because it's who we are and what we're about.
And I want us to be a good people, not just a successful people.
And I wish that some of the language were a little bit more gentle.
I think he can still really energize his base.
I think he can be just as successful if he tones this stuff down a bit.
And I know that he doesn't agree.
I know that the campaign people don't agree.
We'll just have to agree to disagree.
Yeah, I mean, one of the things I've suggested to members of his campaign is that, for me, it's not even necessarily the language he uses, although I have many of the same problems.
It's the targets of the language that he uses.
Meaning that if you want to speak bluntly about You know, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi whining and whimpering in a cave.
I don't think that many Americans have a problem with that.
I think if you apply similar language to Mika Brzezinski, then suddenly a lot of suburban women go, no, I'm not super interested in that.
I do wonder if the, because the art of politics is the art of persuasion, and Trump is not a persuader.
He's just a blunt instrument who says whatever comes to mind.
But he thinks he is.
He thinks he is.
He thinks he turns people around.
And arguably, we've never had a candidate who had a 40% job approval rating, 38%, on election day and got elected president.
So it's clearly something he's saying is tapping into a strong, near majority of the population.
It's not a majority.
And so he thinks that because he went from 38% approval in 2016, and he's at 43% now, he's going to do even better in the election.
And what I've tried to communicate is, you're losing people who would vote for you otherwise, but they just don't like what you say.
And they feel so uncomfortable about it, and they don't want to go through four more years of this.
anger and yelling and then everything being a crisis or everything being in chaos and again i know your viewers the first thing they're doing right now we're only six minutes into the show they're typing away that i'm a traitor or i'm a rhino or i don't get it but the thing is i do because unlike most of your viewers i'm in virtually every state in the country every year I've already been in 30 states.
I got another three or four more to go before we reach New Year's.
Not many people talk to as many people as I do.
And I do know how mad we are.
I do know how this ugliness, this Damn desire to be heard, not to listen, not to learn, but to be heard.
How it's undermining so many things, and it doesn't have to be this way.
So in a second, I want to ask you about, since you've been in all these states, where you think the swing states are going.
Because the polls have been actually fairly strong for Trump in the swing states, even though nationally he's polling very poorly.
So I'm going to ask you about that in just one second.
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Okay, so let's talk for a second about the swing states.
So you just talked about how many states you've been in, and obviously for President Trump, this election basically comes down to the swing states.
His chances of winning the national popular vote continue to be extremely low.
California and New York are just too populous.
He is pulling well from the polls that I've seen in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, more durably than I thought he would at this point.
Not Pennsylvania, but yes in Michigan and yes in Wisconsin, but there are other states.
You have to look at Ohio because Sherrod Brown could be a vice presidential nominee with any Democrat.
And that means Ohio switches.
You have to look at Iowa because of the trade war and the farmers being particularly hurt and Trump's Unfavorability has been rising over the last three or four months in that state.
Obviously, look at North Carolina.
I consider that state to be the most evenly divided of any in the country.
Then two others, New Hampshire and Arizona on the Republican side.
And frankly, there's a chance that Republicans could win Minnesota from the Democrats.
So those are the states that I'm following.
You'll notice I didn't say Florida.
They actually think Trump will do okay there.
But these states are too close to call.
The Democrats know just as much as the Republicans do.
And in those states, we're going to have $3 billion spent on eight or nine states.
And there's only 6% of the population that is truly undecided.
So imagine spending $3 billion on 20% of the states and 6% of the people in those 20%.
We should just buy them a car.
But that's what it's going to feel like.
It's going to be $1,000 per voter to try to influence them.
So how much does the Democratic nominee matter?
So President Trump's specialty may not be building up his own likability.
What I've said is that politics is the art of making it difficult to vote for your opponent and easy to vote for you.
And Trump is great at one part of that and horrible at the other.
Which, again, he doesn't understand.
He'll be watching this and say, oh, that's ridiculous.
He knows nothing.
But he doesn't hear.
And he says he does, but I don't believe he does.
Because he would feel the people Who have a job now who didn't.
Who have more money in their pockets than they did three years ago.
That key question, are you better off today than you were four years ago?
He's succeeding in that.
He really is.
And he's getting no credit from the media.
You would not know that from the networks.
You would not know that from the cable news programs.
But even though they're better off, they're still hesitant.
And he has to ask himself, why?
With an economy that's the strongest economy in my lifetime.
I know in yours.
Surely in mine too.
Why isn't he at 55% approval?
Why isn't he beating every Democrat by 15 or 20%?
If he were Barack Obama at this point, it would be a landslide.
It's not.
And I recognize that the media does not give him a fair shake.
But even part of that is his fault.
Beating up on them.
Ridiculing them at press conferences.
Ridiculing the whole profession.
Everyone uses the phrase fake news.
I've been in a dozen countries in the last six months and they're talking about fake news.
And every time I hear this, I think, wow, the president really has had a global impact.
He should understand that it doesn't have to be this way.
But he doesn't, which makes Joe Biden a 50-50 shot for president.
It makes Elizabeth Warren, who I think is the next most likely nominee, makes her a 45% shot, even though her positions are extreme.
Any of these Democrats, any of them, have a shot, not because of what Trump has done, but because of what he has said.
Let's go through some of the Democratic field.
So I agree that Biden, I've been saying this for years, that Biden is the strongest candidate to go up against Trump, mainly because it's not bad to be an actual corpse running against Trump.
Meaning if you're just a default, non-alive human being, then you're probably going to perform better against Trump than somebody who doesn't have it all baked into the cake.
Now you realize that if you only said it a little bit slower, he could actually hear you.
There's only so much I can do with that.
I lose my train of thought.
And also, I like to exist just on the edge of a speed where only dogs can hear me.
So that's my goal, is to be right on the other side of that particular line.
And cats?
Exactly.
Only animals.
There's a whole untapped market in the podcast arena that I'm really going for.
As long as they can operate the books that the Nielsen family That's exactly right.
So Biden, I've been saying for a long time, because he is 100% name ID, because he's not scary, and part of the fact that he's not scary is the fact that he doesn't seem completely functional.
He just seems like a default candidate who's there.
That's actually a pretty good position to be in, as opposed to somebody like Warren, who Trump can rightly point to somebody like Warren and say, you really want to screw up this whole country just by electing somebody who's got these crazy policy proposals.
Biden doesn't seem to know which state he's in.
And I actually don't think that cuts necessarily against Biden.
I think that actually cuts against Trump in some ways.
I know that Biden is a constitutional expert, but he should be.
He was actually there in the room when they wrote the document.
That's the line that I just heard.
But he is, he's qualified and he's capable.
He's certainly more experienced than his running mate, Barack Obama, was.
He's been engaged in foreign policy.
He knows the rules of the road.
And when he gets righteously indignant, he's actually very effective.
But that comes less and less often, and I think it's coming across now as mean, as opposed to moralistic, but I would not dismiss him.
And frankly, as much as she is extreme in her positions, and some Democrats are now starting to get nervous about her, Elizabeth Warren is electable.
All these people are electable.
And the president's gonna have to figure out how he can debate them without making his own language, his own Twitter account the issue.
If he can focus on where the country is right now, he will be reelected.
If the focus is on him as a person, I gotta tell you, I talk to Republicans who will not give him another chance if that's what they're voting on.
So this has been my going theory, is that if the election is a referendum on the Democratic candidate, the Democrats lose.
If the referendum is an election on Trump personally, then Trump loses.
And I felt the same way in 2016.
I think what everybody got wrong about 2016 is they thought it was going to be a referendum on Trump because he was this out-of-the-box character, and it actually was a referendum on Hillary Clinton with a huge number of Democrats saying, number one, she's going to win, so I'm not showing up to vote, and number two, I don't like her that much, so I'm certainly not getting up in the middle of the winter to go vote for this person not like very much who's certainly going to win.
And my great fear with Biden as a Republican is that you're not gonna have, it's not gonna be a referendum on Biden.
Because how do you have a referendum on a piece of paper?
Like it's just, he's, he's, he's. - What do he do to you? - He's just, he's a boring, nothing of a, like he's a man who's run for president 87 times and lost each time.
The only reason he's even on the stage right now is because of his association with an all-time great politician, Barack Obama.
And even with the fact that he has the glow of Obama cast over him, he still can't break 30% in a national poll among Democrats.
Yes, but they've not pulled him down.
No, that's right.
He's durable.
He's very durable.
At this point, Howard Dean was collapsing.
Right.
At this point, Ed Muskie was collapsing.
I could give you a list, but Gary Hart, who had surged up, was already coming down at this point.
He is durable, and he's credible.
It feels like Romney 2012.
It feels like the Democrats saw a guy who was kind of the default candidate, and then they said, well, let's take a look at all these other candidates.
And then you got the rotating wheel of candidates, just like in 2012, where suddenly Herman Cain was Then he gets hurt.
for five minutes.
And then it was back to the original guy.
He's like, okay, fine.
We tried all these other people.
I guess we'll settle on him.
And it feels that way with Biden, especially because nobody's been able to crack any amount of black support except for Biden once he gets to the South.
Do you think that the primary schedule is going to matter here at all?
If he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, how bad do you think?
Then he gets hurt.
And with Bloomberg coming into the race, and I would say to you, Bloomberg has no chance or had no chance because Democrats don't like billionaires.
But when you're the only one with money and 36% of the delegates are up in one day and everybody has spent everything that they have and you still have tens of millions of dollars to spend, you can't write them off.
I notice as I'm traveling, I'm at airport restaurants, or I'm in my hotel room, I turn on the TV, and there's a Bloomberg ad everywhere, constantly.
I know how much this costs.
This guy is advertising everywhere, and it's going to have an impact.
It may not have an impact in Iowa and New Hampshire.
It may not have an impact nationwide.
But on Super Tuesday States, he's going to be a player.
You know the rules.
Unlike the Republicans, where it was very much winner-take-all, so all you had to do was get 35% in some state.
In the Democratic rules, if you get 15% in a congressional district, you get delegates.
You get 15% statewide, you get delegates.
So it's very hard.
You can be getting 15 or 20% in state after state, and you're still running up a good percentage of delegates for the national convention.
We could easily have a situation where it is brokered.
I was about to ask you that.
Like, what do you think are the chances of a brokered convention?
And if it is brokered, what are the chances they go off the board for somebody like Michelle Obama?
And if they went off the board for her, that's game, set, and match.
Agreed.
And again, I would love to take this podcast, I'd love to take this broadcast and show it to Trump and watch him go crazy.
No one's done the Michelle Obama.
Donald Trump matchup.
That's not a close matchup.
That's a 60-40 matchup.
I agree with that.
And they'll protect her.
They'll shelter her.
She spent the last eight years rebuilding herself from the radical who was saying her husband was going to heal the soul of the country, and she was writing theses about how America was systemically racist.
And now she's everybody's aunt.
She's writing these nice books about how she raises her kids.
And she's Oprah, but politically savvy.
You have Mayor Pete, which I haven't talked about, Biden, Warren, and Sanders.
All four of them have a claim to 15% of the vote.
Well, if all four of them stay in, and there'll be some wild card, then it becomes very hard to get to 50% of the vote.
And superdelegates do not vote on the first ballot.
So they can't tilt it in any direction until the second ballot.
Yeah, this election cycle, the Democrats could go all the way to June and even into July.
What do you think are the chances, in a second I'm going to ask you, the chances of Hillary Clinton jumping back in the race?
Because she obviously is... Okay, well that answers that question.
So I'll ask you a different question in just one second.
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OK, so let me ask you about Pete Buttigieg, because he's the one name who's not been mentioned yet.
People seem to be overlooking him as a national candidate because he hasn't really had this major surge in the national polling.
He's had some surges in state polling, particularly the early states.
He has no play among black voters, obviously.
He's definitely trying to fix that.
But they don't know him.
Do you think that's a matter of awareness?
Do you actually think that it is the off-sighted possibility that maybe gay men are not going to work too well for a lot of black voters in the South?
Well, that's half of it.
That is half of it.
And that's a conversation that needs to happen in the black community.
But he still has not been introduced to the country like he has in Iowa and New Hampshire.
They've seen him.
I've seen him campaign.
In my travels across the country, I've seen all these people do their stump speeches.
And Mayor Pete is the quietest of them.
He's the most unassuming, the most humble.
He stays as long as he has to stay.
He has very few applause lines and amazing answers, policy answers, calming answers.
He brings people together.
We hear that phrase, who's gonna find common ground?
He's the definition of common ground.
And I watch people as they walk out and they're all blown away by him.
He is everyone's second choice, which means that that's why he's doing so well right now in these two states, because he's becoming the first choice.
He is the highest ratio of favorable to unfavorable of any of the candidates.
And the more you know him, the more you like him.
There's very few candidates that have all three of those going for him.
So I think he's got a way to go up, even though they're starting to focus on him.
But yeah, there is an anti-gay mentality.
that still exists within the religious component of the African American community.
And it's something that he needs to challenge among them.
And I don't know how he does it because it's not who he is.
He does not wear it on his sleeve, but he does not hide it either.
And that's why of all the early states, the one I'm most interested in is South Carolina.
Biggest percentage of black voters.
Biggest percentage of religious voters.
Iowa's not religious.
It's spiritual, but it's not religious.
New Hampshire's not religious at all.
It's all economic voters.
Nevada, you know, it's Vegas and whatever.
South Carolina, we're going to find out what happens in the black churches.
And that's going to be fascinating.
So what do you think are the actual odds?
You have to make the odds for the Democrats right now.
Where would you place people?
And I've been all over.
There was a time when I thought Harris.
We all thought Harris at the very beginning, and then it turns out that she's horrible as a candidate, just awful at what she does.
The worst!
Just sheer garbage as a candidate.
And they're, you know, they're blaming sexism.
They're blaming racism.
It's like, well, the racism thing, it's like Barack Obama never existed.
And I am amused by watching Cory Booker call his own Democratic Party base racist if they don't put him on the stage, because obviously He's the only other black person in the race.
And so now that Kamala's out, he's like, I'm so sad about it.
But also cut me a check.
Please cut me a check right now.
But how about Biden saying that he was supported by the only black female in the U.S.
Senate and Harris is up on stage?
Yeah.
That was very funny.
I thought it was I just I laughed for like five minutes after that was done.
I think I have to give the highest odds to Senator Warren, and here's why.
She's raising among the most, if not the most.
Second, she's got the best organization, second to Bernie.
Third, she's been at this and she's had a national platform, so she's not going to have A mistake.
She may do something wrong, such as being honest about Medicare for All and how much it's going to cost, but she wanted that discussion.
That wasn't a mistake.
To her, that's about explaining why the rich and corporations need to pay more.
So, she wants that debate.
And I think the Democrats want to nominate a woman.
I really do.
I think they want to make up for what happened with Trump and Clinton.
So I give her number one.
I give Joe Biden number two, even though I think he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, simply because his national numbers are very impressive.
His support within the African American community is very strong.
And then third would be Mayor Pete.
I don't think Bernie Sanders is any shot at the nomination because Elizabeth Warren is taking away his votes and because at some point I'm just expecting him to do what Jim from Taxi did.
He just, he doesn't remind me of Larry David, he reminds me of Jim from Taxi.
That he's just going to be waving his arms and suddenly he's just going to drop.
Bernie Sanders is so old, it takes him an hour and a half to watch 60 Minutes.
He's so old, his favorite painting is The Last Supper.
If you look carefully, he's the second waiter from the left.
Bernie Sanders is so old, the only time he doesn't have to pee is when he's peeing.
Come on, crew.
Some reaction here.
You know all three of Trump's wives are immigrants?
All three of them.
It's living proof that there are some jobs only an immigrant will take.
Equal opportunity, okay.
Yes, I got one more.
Okay.
So I was at the White House Christmas party.
It's interesting, I wasn't invited this year.
But I was there last year and I finally got the guts to ask the president, what does the J in Donald J. Trump stand for?
You know what he told me?
Genius.
So let's talk about the genius in the Republican Party right now.
So the Republicans have the Senate, they had until recently the House, they have the presidency, they were dominating at the state level, and it seems like all of it is slipping away, and it's slipping away pretty quickly.
How much of that is due to Trump personally, and how much of that is just a crisis of identity inside the Republican Party?
It feels as though the Republican Party is splitting in a thousand different ways, and that there's no coherent glue holding it together, other than mere Opposition to the left, which is a glue, but it can't be the only glue, I would think.
In 2016, they had more governorships, more senators, more congressmen, more state houses, more state senates, more mayors than they'd had in 100 years.
There were more elected officials who were identified with the Republican Party than any time in a century.
And what did they do with it?
Did they reform government?
No.
Did they transition and transform and transcend Washington's control and influence and send it back to the states?
None of that.
Did they offer the country a specific vision on health care with a policy to go with it?
They could have done anything.
And the truth is, they accomplished some things, but not what would have deserved them having as much power as they did.
And it'll never come again.
And the amazing thing, and the one that I'm most angry about, is that they could have shifted power back to the states and localities.
They had the votes to do it in the House and Senate, because they had a whole bunch of Democrats who did not want Trump making those decisions, so they would have done it.
You had California Democrats who would have voted with Southern Republicans to take power out of Washington and send it back to the states where it belongs.
And they didn't do any of it.
And now they're being punished for it.
And they have no one to blame but themselves.
I do wonder if some of the big kind of Republican talking point items are even doable in today's America.
Speaking specifically here of entitlement reform, for example, which was Paul Ryan's bugaboo and he was never able to get anywhere with that.
How much of that is because Republicans don't know how to talk about entitlement reform and how much of that is because people actually just do not want to hear entitlement reform and every country that has ever undergone any sort of entitlement reform has been forced to it by austerity measures?
Well, look what's going on right now.
In France, they are protesting every day and they're shooting tear gas underneath the Arc de Triomphe.
In Colombia, I got caught in a protest.
Okay, I walked a few blocks to get into it, and then I realized I needed to get out of it.
There were over 300,000 people.
Demanding that they not reform pensions down there.
All across the globe this is happening.
Governments 10, 15, 20 years ago gave away way too much.
Now they realize they can't afford to pay for it.
They're trying to right the ship and voters won't let them.
And they even know the damage, but they'll say, hey, I paid for it.
I worked for it.
I earned it.
You take it out of someone else's hide, not mine.
And the Democrats are smart in this perspective.
They know that once you give a voter a gift, a program, any kind of benefit, they will not let you take it away.
No tax is ever temporary, and no program is ever temporary.
They make them permanent.
And I think the GOP did not understand that.
And the only time they could have done it is when they had the White House, the Senate, and the House.
And they needed the governorships as well.
They had it all.
They had everything.
And I won't be around that much longer.
You have a long time to go.
You will look back at the years 2017 and 18 as the greatest loss of opportunity.
You may love, in your case you don't love him, but you may like Donald Trump.
You may like what conservatism means to the country.
But I say to you that the opportunity versus the result will never be greater than those two years, 17 and 18.
And they're not coming back again.
One of the great debates inside the Republican Party, and this is taking place before Trump but it's been exacerbated and accelerated by Trump, is the debate over which direction to move in the future.
So after 2012 there was the famous Republican document from the RNC that came out and said we need to reach out to new demographic groups, and maybe that means shifting policy on things like— And how's that worked out for them?
Yeah.
As I was about to say, President Trump came back with a different sort of analysis, if you can call it that.
But there are certainly people doing this analysis, saying it's easier to win an additional 5% of the white vote than it is to win an additional 15% of the Hispanic vote.
And so you double down on what brought you here.
And the future of the Republican Party basically lies in immigration restrictionism and economic subsidies and really catering to the white working class, building up those numbers so that it's 2 to 1, 3 to 1.
Is that conservatism?
I mean, not in my opinion, it's not, but... And I'm a pollster.
I'm a communications guy.
So I have my own point of view, and nobody cares to hear it.
They want to know who's going to win, and they want to know how to win.
They don't really want to know my philosophy, but I do question this.
My grandparents are immigrants.
They came here from Ukraine.
I was over in Ukraine, and this is your exclusive.
I was in Ukraine while all this stuff was going on, and I had no idea.
I was there to do some speeches for the State Department, to talk to students, to talk to elected officials.
They were telling me that they were seeking American aid and they weren't getting it.
It's fascinating to me because I was hearing stuff that did not make sense and then a couple months later it made sense.
We're not hostile to Ukraine.
A lot of us consider Ukraine to be allies because they're hostile to the Russians.
Why suddenly is Ukraine the enemy?
I'm sorry to those people who say that they tried to intervene in our election, but the Russians tried to intervene in our election, not the Ukrainians.
We have to figure out a way to get along with China.
China is an opponent.
They may be an enemy.
They don't compete fairly.
They manipulate their currency.
They steal our intellectual property.
And Trump is right, is right to hold them accountable.
But shouldn't we be bringing Canada with us?
Shouldn't we be getting Germany and Britain and the other countries that trade with them?
Shouldn't we align with France and Korea so it's all of us trying to move China?
Why are we trying to do this alone?
We see issues with weather right now, and this is the one that they're gonna be all pissed off over.
Something is happening.
And it's not about heat.
It's about the intensity of these storms and the consistency of them.
And, unfortunately, the predictability of them.
We can't turn a blind eye to it.
It's not 60-40 or 70-30 among the scientific community.
It's 95-5.
And I say this as someone who challenged the science of climate 20 years ago.
We've learned a lot in 20 years.
I don't want the same equipment that would have operated on my brain 20 years ago operating on me now.
Our science gets better.
Our knowledge of the economy gets better.
Our information gets better.
And by the way, I thought to be a conservative meant that you respected and celebrated the work of the CIA or the FBI, that we respected and appreciated the efforts of the police and the first responders, and the idea that we are now trashing our intelligence services.
That, to me, I didn't know that that's the side that conservatives are taking.
To me, that was always on the left.
So tell me, because I don't know.
What is conservatism?
What side are we on?
What do we believe?
Because the things that I was raised from Jim and William Buckley and Jean Kirkpatrick and Richard Perle and Ronald Reagan Some of those things don't seem to be conservative today.
And so I don't know.
So in a second, I want to ask whether you think that's a result of Trump and you think that that's a durable ideological change inside the Republican Party, or do you think that this is just sort of a temporary Trump was the vessel, he defeated Hillary Clinton, and then once Trump is no longer president, then this actually plays out in real time and we get to have that intellectual fight.
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Before we go on, what is the answer?
Is it that we're going to have different definitions of conservatism and we're going to fight it?
Is conservatism pro or anti-immigrant or should we not be having this argument?
Don't conservatives care about the environment?
If we are supporters of tradition and legacy, don't we want to ensure that the air that we breathe and the water that we drink is safe for generation because we believe in delayed gratification?
Isn't conservatism about border security and alliances with NATO?
And North America?
Isn't Canada one of our strongest allies?
Should we be fighting with the Canadian Prime Minister?
Tell me.
You're a smart guy.
You tell me, what is conservatism today?
I mean, I think that conservatism today is anti-leftism, and that is not enough.
And this is a case I've been making consistently for years, is that there was a very famous talk show host, of whom I grew up as a fan, who in 2016 shifted his definition of conservatism.
He had the Institute of Advanced Conservative Studies, is what he called it, Rush called it this.
And then in 2016, he shifted it to the Institute of Advanced Anti-Left Studies.
And I thought that that was a very telling move, because basically what it suggested is that the radicalism of the left was to be opposed, and that the political correctness of the left was to be opposed.
And that was pretty much what tied us together.
There were no centralized values.
But conservatism, I thought, was meant to pull you in.
This was the Jim and Bill Buckley philosophy.
Which is to show you, okay, it does show you the insanity of the left, but it's to pull you in intellectually to the ideas of the right.
I mean, I totally— James Q. Wilson.
I totally agree with this.
The conservatism was the smart people, the best educated people, the people, yes, who did go to Ivy League schools.
But I think, and this is really a question for you, why did conservatives stop making the moral case?
Because I think that's really where this broke down.
I think that there was a point in my life where the case was made that markets were not moral, that you had to add on top of that, like the very idea of compassionate conservatism was A good pitch, but I remember having problems with it when I was 16 years old because I thought to myself, I don't know why we are being redundant.
Because the idea there is obviously that without the modifier, conservatism is not compassionate.
But my philosophy was always that that was an oxymoron, that that was a contradiction.
That conservatism was about making tough choices.
And that the left was about making everything easy.
You got a problem?
Throw money at it.
You're suffering?
Here's a check.
You lost your house?
We're going to take care of it.
And to the point where we couldn't afford it.
But it was the gift.
Liberalism was about a gift.
And conservatism was about personal responsibility.
So you could be a common sense conservative, but you couldn't be a compassionate conservative.
I totally agree with that.
I mean, I think that my main objection to the idea was that common sense is not compassion.
I mean, the idea of conservatism is that when you make those tough decisions, you're doing something good for people.
And that when you cut people a check, very often you're doing something bad for people.
What you're actually doing is enervating them and making them unable to support themselves and making them dependent.
And so by pitching conservatism as Well, it'll be conservatism, but it'll be nice.
It's like, well, you just took the heart right out of what it is you're talking about, and you're setting up an expectation that without the big government spending programs, conservatism is actually just mean and petty and cruel.
So there's this idea that's been built up in the conservative movement, you see it manifest right now, that conservatism is about heartless markets.
And you see conservatives say this sort of stuff.
It's about heartless markets, free markets that are nasty to people, and so we have to curb their application, because we have to chain the markets up and make them work for us, though the markets are not an I don't hear that.
Markets are a reflection of a basic individual right to alienate your own labor.
They are inherently moral.
And the idea that a market is not moral, that you have to curb the market, chain it up, make it work for the people.
No, that's socialist language.
That is the language of collectivism.
Yes, but that is not the language of conservatism.
You just described the language of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
Agreed.
But markets on their own are not necessarily compassionate.
That we are making a decision as a society, which I believe, and this is where my politics has changed, that there are times when markets don't function correctly.
That the free market is not always free and does not always choose the right thing.
And that there can be perversions that cause real damage.
And that the best form of an ideology is one that admits those cases where it is wrong, and always seeks to improve it.
I think it's one of the great things about Western religion, is that it goes through a reformation constantly, as it re-examines its principles, its morals, its values, acknowledges where it got it wrong, and then seeks to fix it.
Not through wholesale changes.
That's progressivism.
But through tinkering at the edges to correct those things that went wrong.
There's nothing wrong with that.
My issue is twofold.
One who believes that markets are evil and those who believe that markets should not be touched.
We have become so polarized right now.
I'm scared to death of the Wall Street Journal because I know that there is income inequality.
I can admit it.
There are rich people and there are poor people, and it is not the fault of every poor person, or even a majority of them, that they are poor.
They've been denied a decent education, they were denied a decent family, they were denied the same opportunities that we got.
You got them and I got them.
We were put on the right path.
We are responsible for our success or our failure, but we at least got on the right path.
What about the 20 or 25% who don't have that opportunity, who get stuck in schools that suck, who are taught by teachers who don't want to be there, that want to get out of class as soon as they can, are taught by teachers who have trouble with the lesson plan itself, and they shouldn't be there.
It is not their fault.
That they have one parent or no parents.
It is not their fault that everything around them teaches them about bad behavior.
You can't tell someone to pull themselves up by their bootstraps if they don't own boots.
And over the last three or four years, I'm working with kids who are teaching me that.
They joke that they're my life coach.
But they are teaching me about the 20% that I did not see.
And every time I sit with them, I hear about another pathology, another horrible story of what they went through.
And it isn't their fault.
And markets won't help them.
We have to intervene.
But...
If we destroy economic freedom in this country, we destroy all the greatness of the last 230 years.
We can help so many more people individually, personally.
I don't want the government raising my taxes.
I'm in the top 1%.
And every year I give more and more.
Every year my percentage goes higher and higher.
And I'm giving my time, not just my checks.
Don't, government, stop me from doing that.
Get out of my way and let me make a difference.
But I know I have the responsibility to do it.
And I know you do too.
I know on this we agree.
That's my frustration.
There's no one who speaks for me.
Well, I mean, I wonder if, again, it's the language of a certain materialist point of view toward government that seems to have taken over.
What I mean by that is that the original bargain of the founders was that we would have an extremely limited government that was not capable of doing a great many things in order to protect our rights, and that a government too powerful would have the ability to invade those.
But that was balanced by a feeling of duty that we had for one another.
And representation.
This is not a democracy.
And our people aren't even taught that in the government classes.
The only direct democracy we have is in New Hampshire.
And the other 49 states, it's a republic.
And we have to hope that the people represent us well.
The problem is, they've now discovered that the more they give away, the more they get elected.
And that they forget that half the equation is spending, but the other half is taxation.
And it is one of the things I'm angriest about about this administration.
Why do we have a deficit and a debt that's out of control?
Why are we on the wrong side of the ledger as much as Barack Obama was?
More.
On a yearly basis, more.
And we have the strongest economy now and he had the weakest economy back then?
What has happened to personal responsibility, to agency responsibility, to government responsibility?
You don't spend what you don't have.
And we are just trying to buy people off, the left and the right.
That's not conservative.
Well, no, this is, I think, what I'm arguing about with regard to materialism.
I think that both the right and the left believe that the solution is going to come through some form of government interventionism now.
And it seems like that's, I mean, the Republicans are spending as much as the Democrats or more.
And the Republicans are not looking to cut programs in any real way.
They're looking to maybe trim around the edges, but they're not looking to restore the value of a social fabric in absence of government.
Instead, what you hear conversations about are the failures of capitalism, but you never actually hear about the morality of capitalism for the sphere in which it operates.
It's not meant to— Don't call it capitalism.
Capitalism to too many Americans is Wall Street.
I've actually told conservatives stop using the phrase capitalism because it undermines your philosophy.
Rush Limbaugh came at me by name saying that I'm a sellout.
And I say to him, because I know he watches you, I say to him, if you defend capitalism, you're defending the parts of the economy that the American people resent and they want to vote out of office.
But if you defend economic freedom, those are the principles of the founding fathers.
Those are the principles that have held this country so strong for so many decades.
And it all actually goes back to one issue, which we haven't talked about.
It's not been brought up in the democratic debates.
No one ever talks about it because we say it's a local issue.
And it is at the core, it's at the root of everything that is going wrong.
And that is the sorry state of our public schools.
If we can't educate, and I've got my staffer here, who insists on using 22 words when 16 will do.
Why does he write so much?
Because he was told, I need a 700 word essay.
Not valuing each word but just trying to get as many words onto a page.
We have schools that allow kids to graduate with diplomas they cannot read.
That they actually discourage those who are smartest and they bring them down to the average so that no one can excel.
I think we are destroying the fabric of this country by allowing our schools to be destroyed.
And it's not That I'm anti-public school.
I want all of our schools to do well.
But I don't care whether it's public or private.
I don't care whether it's merit pay, performance pay, or what you call it.
Show me another occupation where we pay the best people no better than where we pay the worst.
Show me something more important that we value more than our TV sets and our cars.
If our car doesn't work, we'll go to the shop, and if they don't fix it the first time, we'll yell at them.
Our kids are coming out more damaged than on televisions and our cars and we let it happen.
That parents aren't involved in the lives of their kids because they don't have time or they don't know what they're being taught.
And that we have principals who cannot ensure that their schools are a safe learning environment.
It is a disaster.
It is a tragedy.
And I am begging these Democratic candidates to talk about it.
And nothing has happened.
Well, the minute Pete Buttigieg talked about it, he got racked over the coals.
I mean, he just got destroyed.
Because there's that old audio of him from 2011 talking about pathologies in particular communities.
And he wasn't even blaming the kids or even the parents.
He was saying people are put in circumstances where they don't have role models who value education.
They've never seen anybody work the system and succeed that way, and so why would they buy into it?
And he got just destroyed for saying something that was basically true.
Not basically.
It is true.
It is accurate.
And someone needs to look at a camera, straighten the eye, and say, if you allow this to happen anymore over the next 10 years, then it is your fault when our kids are speaking Chinese.
It is your fault when the Chinese companies are coming in with better technology, better manufacturing, And better capability to out-compete our kids.
I'm going to tell you something.
I teach at NYU Abu Dhabi.
It's my greatest thrill of my life.
I would give up politics.
I would give up my corporate work.
I care about nothing more than I care about teaching.
And NYU Abu Dhabi is the most global education in the world.
The highest percentage of any student are Emiratis themselves at 14% and Americans are at 12%.
There's no place where you get this mix.
Over a hundred countries are represented in the 1,200 students.
My Chinese students, I'm going to get yelled at for this too.
My Chinese students want to know how to get an A. My Chinese students are lobbying to keep the library open 24 hours a day.
My Chinese students are trying to figure out what they need to know, what they need to learn, how they will succeed.
And my American students are looking for the bar.
They're looking to have a drink and they're looking to have fun.
There was a survey that was taken of Chinese mothers and American mothers, what they prioritize for their kids.
American moms wanted their kids to be happy.
Chinese kids wanted their children to be educated.
Well, the Chinese kids got what they wanted.
The parents got what they wanted.
They're kids educated and they're really unhappy.
The American kids are really happy and really uneducated.
And if we don't get our act together, then this country will not survive.
The yelling and screaming about Donald Trump or Nancy Pelosi or impeachment, that is all irrelevant.
If we have a healthy school, a healthy classroom, we can survive anything, because we will produce students who are able to handle the problems of the 21st century.
But if we continue to allow our schools to deteriorate, if we continue to fight over charter, if we fight over the teachers' unions... Education is not an employment program.
If Teach for America works, let those teachers in there.
The unions are fighting to get Teach for America thrown out.
You know why?
Because those young people teach better than the teachers who are 25 years older than them.
Because they care.
And they want to spend time with their students.
We need institutions like NYU Abu Dhabi who are teaching a global population, global issues, global concerns, global threats.
We're going to solve them in America.
And we're going to do good things for the world.
But if our kids can't compete with the kids from China, Japan, and Korea, and the other European nations, if we continue to score 20th in language and 30th in math, God knows what we score in science.
And we're heading down.
We really are.
So in a second, I want to ask you about—go back to a topic we addressed very briefly originally, and that is, is it possible to sell anybody anything, basically?
Can you sell ice to an Eskimo using the correct language of politics?
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Okay, so let's talk about the use of language in politics, which of course is your specialty.
I think people get uncomfortable when we talk about the use of language in politics because, and this is sort of, I think, what Trump may be getting at when he says, "I don't even care, I'm just gonna say what I feel, "and that's my appeal." Do people feel, I certainly can see it, people feel like if the question here is just about using the right words, do the ideas even matter?
Are any ideas sellable in America so long as you use the right words?
No, it has to be credible.
It has to be authentic.
People have to feel that you should not be taxed just because you die.
That a death tax is not fair to a family that is going through a great tragedy and they have to get their assets in order and they have to figure out what they're going to have to write to their government.
We think that if parents are going to sacrifice, their kids should be able to enjoy that sacrifice.
It does matter if it's a scholarship.
Or a voucher.
A voucher is a piece of paper.
An opportunity scholarship is a chance for a better future.
Even something so simple.
We've got water here.
Sparkling water.
If this is carbonated, it means it's got chemicals.
But if this is sparkling, it's a refreshing taste.
So yeah, the words do matter.
I was criticized for Obamacare because in my research, we called it a government takeover.
Now the people who criticized me backed away.
Three years later, because people really did lose their doctor, they really did lose their hospital, they did lose their health care plan, it actually was government involvement in health care.
There's PolitiFact famously calling it the lie of the year.
Yes.
And then it took three years for them to back away from it, because we saw that what the Republicans had said about it turned out to be true.
That said, Messaging does matter.
How you communicate it does matter.
Paul Ryan had the most complicated, convoluted defense of his healthcare plan.
And we were able to summarize it in 14 words.
The choice and control you want, the affordability you need, and the quality you deserve.
Simple.
And that's what the plan did.
But he talked about competition and selling health plans across state lines.
It was just unintelligible for most people.
So yes, language matters, but you cannot sell ice to Eskimos.
And it is not manipulation.
You actually have a responsibility to clarify what you mean.
You have a responsibility to say what you mean and mean what you say.
And that's what I try to help I really stopped doing it.
I'm not really involved in much policy anymore and I'm not involved in any campaigns.
Because they don't like it.
It's 97% negative and I don't want to do it.
And I realized this 10 years ago.
But it does frustrate me and I cannot look at a political ad without...
That woman over there should be 20 years older.
The kid that just came in, too young.
We need someone slightly older.
Where's the line?
My biggest bugaboo about political ads is that they love to film them in kitchens because kitchen table economics or balancing your books at the kitchen.
The truth is most people don't use their kitchen table for it.
They do it in their den.
Second is that all the kitchens I see in these ads have islands.
Most of your viewers, do you have an island in your house?
We do.
Okay, well then you're well off, I can tell.
Your jacket is... We have listeners, yeah.
So you're doing okay.
Free markets.
Economic freedom.
Economic freedom, not free markets.
There it is.
Economic freedom.
The kitchens are way upper middle class kitchens.
And most kitchens aren't like that.
So, I still see things.
It's not just the words, it's the visuals that they use.
And sometimes I get frustrated, but messaging does matter.
So, tell me about the focus group method, because it's been much criticized and much praised.
What exactly is it, and why does it work?
You learn from people by asking them questions, which is what you do here.
I wonder what percentage of your guests ask you questions back again.
Because that's what this is about, is asking the viewer what you think, what you know, what you believe, what you're afraid of, what you want the most.
How can I inspire you to do more, give more, be more involved in helping others?
It is awesome because it allows you to explain in your words, not mine, what matters most.
It's why I learned about the word imagine.
Most powerful word in the English language.
When you ask people to imagine a better America, you would say what?
One where I'm free to do what I want with my life and not be bothered with my children.
So you won't be able to hear him off microphone, but I'm asking you, camera guy, if you were to imagine a better America, what do you think of?
Or what do you see?
And I'll repeat it.
More unifying.
So he says unifying, but he does something which is even more important.
He does this, brings his hands together.
That's showing that not only is he thinking it, but he's actually feeling it.
And one more.
What do you think?
More opportunity.
More opportunity for what?
For industry.
For industry.
Wow.
A pro-corporatist over there.
Well, he knows where he's working.
Very smart.
There are, say, ten people in this set.
Every one of them has a different definition of it, but every one is correct.
That's what a focus group does.
It explains this.
It allowed me to understand the importance of efficient, effective, accountable government.
Not small government.
Not limited government.
But a government that's more for less.
A government that only does what it does well, and a government that's held responsible if it doesn't deliver.
That's efficient, effective, and accountable.
Something that's meaningful and measurable.
They taught me that through focus groups.
So much of my language comes from asking questions and listening to the responses, rather than just putting it out on a very dry survey where you have five or seven or nine different choices.
The focus group allows you to go wherever you want to go, and it also shows me intensity and passion.
And that's what's frightening to me right now.
When I used to moderate these, people would be expressive, but they knew when to stop.
The groups I've done over the last three or four years, the one I did for CBS News two nights before the election in 2016, if you go back to the video, because they kept it in, I walked off the set.
Again, I'll give you something I never told anyone.
I quit that night.
We were two days before the election.
I was livid at these people because they were just shouting at each other, yelling at each other.
You could barely hear it.
In fact, the sound guys said at one moment it went into the red.
It actually was distorted.
And you hear it happen.
And I'm telling them, stop!
And they won't stop.
And I just walked off.
And I told the executive producer at the time, I quit.
This is what you all have created.
This is what Clinton and Trump and the media have created in the American psyche.
You go live with it.
I'm going to New Zealand.
And he said to me, I can't use bad language, but he said to me, get the hell back in there.
Stop complaining and do your job.
We put a lot of money to put these cameras here.
Do your damn job.
Get in there.
And I thought to myself, wow, you're a really mean guy.
He's my boss, so I have to do it.
And I went back in and finished it.
But they kept it in the tape.
So, in one second, I want to ask you something more fun.
And that is, you're apparently, I've been told by many people, you have a very nice house, and you have an enormous amount of historical memorabilia.
So I want to ask you what your favorite piece of American memorabilia you have is.
But first, if you want to hear Frank Lentz's answer, you have to be a Daily Wire subscriber.
If you want to subscribe, head on over to dailywire.com, click on that subscribe button, you can hear the end of our conversation over there.
Frank Lentz, thank you so much for stopping by.
I really appreciate it.
Frank Lentz, political commentator, pollster.
Check him out.
He's got a bunch of New York Times bestselling books as well.
Frank, really appreciate your time.
Thank you.
Got it.
Got it.
Executive producer, Jeremy Boring.
Associate producer, Colton Haas.
Our guests are booked by Caitlin Maynard.
Post-production is supervised by Alex Zingaro.
Editing by Donovan Fowler.
Audio is mixed by Mike Karamina.
Hair and makeup is by Jesua Olvera.
Title graphics by Cynthia Angulo.
The Ben Shapiro Show Sunday Special is a Daily Wire production.
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