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Sept. 18, 2018 - The Ben Shapiro Show
53:37
The Kavanaugh Showdown | Ep. 624
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The world prepares for Judge Brett Kavanaugh and his accuser to testify in front of the Senate.
President Trump prepares to release the FISA Kraken.
And we analyze the latest poll results.
I'm Ben Shapiro.
This is The Ben Shapiro Show.
Oh man, I didn't even mention that Stormy Daniels has now described the president as junk.
So we have to get to that also today because, I mean, come on, how could we ignore that?
On Erev Yom Kippur, the day of repentance, we have to get in a little bit of last minute frippery before we actually start the repentance that is happening tonight.
Also, I do want to let you know, just right up front, that we do have a special that is beginning on Fox News this coming Sunday, the Ben Shapiro election special.
So that is coming the next four weeks on Fox.
We are really excited to bring you That, it should be a lot of fun.
We're going to have special guests.
We're going to be analyzing the news.
We're going to be going through the polls.
It's going to be just great.
It's 8 p.m.
on Sundays, so go check that out on Sunday.
That will be our first episode.
Very pumped up about that.
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Alrighty, so, the world waits, aghast, as we find out more about the accusations against Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Brett Kavanaugh, of course, President Trump's pick.
To replace Justice Anthony Kennedy on the Supreme Court.
And he was considered the establishment pick, let us recall.
I had serious questions about Judge Brett Kavanaugh on policy grounds, but there seemed to be no real question about him on character grounds.
This is a Catholic father of multiple girls.
This is a guy who had been very active in his community.
This is somebody who coached his girls' basketball team.
And now there's an accuser who has come forward Her name is Christine Ford, and she has come forward, and she suggests that back when Brett Kavanaugh was 17 years old, and she was 15 years old, at an unspecified party, at an unspecified date, at an unspecified location, he lay on top of her, tried to rip off her bathing suit, covered her hand, her mouth with his hand, in an attempt to stifle her screams, and then somehow she escaped.
And that's the accusation.
There are a bunch of things to be noted about this accusation.
First of all, he was 17 at the time and she was 15, according to her.
This is why it's good to go to juvenile court when stuff like this happens, because for a lot of juvenile crimes, The records on this sort of thing would be sealed, right?
I mean, we have a general presumption with regard to teenagers that teenagers are to be granted a little bit more leeway.
Now, listen, I'm not somebody who actually likes that argument a whole heck of a lot, depending on the nature and severity of the crime.
I think there are a lot of cases in which teens ought to be tried as adults if you're talking about rape or murder.
But in this particular case, the FBI was told about this and they can't even check it out because there is no alleged crime that has taken place.
Like, they don't even know what alleged crime would rise to the federal level, as I mentioned yesterday.
And they have no facts to go on here.
And she has no facts that she has provided that would actually allow for a specific investigation of what exactly happened over here.
And what's even worse, her lawyers are now basically attempting to prevent her from saying anything of interest about it.
Her own lawyer said that it's not important for her to provide corroboration for her story.
Her lawyer basically said her name is Deborah Katz.
She says basically that this woman has no obligation to provide any evidence that these accusations are even true.
She can just throw it out there and we're all supposed to believe it without any further corroboration.
And has your client spoken to any of those other guys or that girl who could help corroborate her story?
She has not.
And why not?
Is it time to do that?
That's not her job to do that.
If this is going to be investigated, it should be done by investigators.
Okay, well, what exactly is that supposed to mean?
The FBI can't investigate.
She hasn't given any corroborating details.
Who's supposed to investigate this?
And the left is using the FBI as though they're the super-secret police?
The FBI is a law enforcement body tasked with the enforcement of federal law.
They're not the great master detectives.
It's not like there's the regular detective, and then there's Sherlock Holmes, and Sherlock Holmes is the FBI.
That's not how this thing works.
It's not, we don't have enough evidence to actually show something happened, but the FBI, they will ferret out the truth.
It's funny how the left has come to rely on the FBI this way, as opposed to, you know, actually holding hearings on this issue.
So, yesterday, Senator Chuck Grassley invited the alleged victim, Christine Blasey Ford, invited her to speak in front of the Senate committee, and supposedly she accepted.
According to CNN, the Republican leader of the Senate Judiciary Committee said on Monday he would convene remarkable new public hearings in a week's time after sexual assault allegations emerged against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Both Kavanaugh and the woman who has accused him of physical and sexual assault, Christine Blasey Ford, will testify before the panel, setting up a blockbuster event that could decide Kavanaugh's fate.
The announcement, made under pressure from lawmakers to fully examine the new claims, will delay what had been a glide path toward confirmation for President Trump's nominee.
The political stakes for the White House and members of Congress are enormous as the MeToo movement galvanizes women ahead of key congressional elections in November.
Now make no mistake, The only thing the left wants out of this is a withdrawn Kavanaugh nomination in the hopes that somehow, for some desperate reason, Democrats will take the Senate in November, and by the time Trump can nominate somebody else and go through the process, it will be a Democratic Senate that can reject the nominee.
That's the actual plan here.
It has nothing to do with Brett Kavanaugh.
It has nothing to do with the seriousness of the charges.
The Democrats are not treating the charges seriously.
Dianne Feinstein, who originally received these, received these in July.
She did nothing for eight weeks.
For eight weeks, she did nothing.
Nothing.
She didn't tell her Senate Democratic colleagues.
She didn't tell the rest of the Senate.
She didn't ask any questions of Kavanaugh in writing or in person.
She didn't have a phone call with Kavanaugh.
She didn't talk to the lady, presumably.
All that happened is that she received this letter, she sat on it, and then just before the confirmation, she decided to release it in a last-ditch attempt to hold off the hearings as long as possible so that this would stretch beyond the next election cycle.
That's all that is happening right here.
And how do we know that?
Because now it is obvious that the Democrats are simply using delay tactics.
So the Senate Democrats, the Judiciary Committee Democrats, put out a statement yesterday.
And they said this.
With only a few hours notice and over the objections of ranking member Feinstein, Judiciary Committee Republicans scheduled a staff-level phone call with Brett Kavanaugh concerning allegations he sexually assaulted a young woman.
In view of the enormity and seriousness of these allegations, a staff-only phone call behind closed doors is unacceptable, and Democratic staff will not participate.
This isn't how things should be done and is in complete violation of how this committee has worked in the past.
The FBI has the resources and know-how to conduct an objective, independent evaluation of these sensitive allegations with appropriately trained investigators.
This isn't just about an interview.
It's about analyzing information and gathering the facts.
That's what the FBI does, and that's why they're in charge of the background review process.
Except that the FBI has already kicked this to the White House.
They said, we have no basis for investigation here.
What the hell are you talking about?
So Democrats are throwing this to the FBI so that they can avoid actually going forward with a hearing that might clear this up.
Their entire goal is to smear Brett Kavanaugh.
Whether this woman is telling the truth or not, That is not relevant to the Democrats.
The Democrats in the Senate Judiciary Committee are obviously engaged in political brinksmanship here.
This has nothing to do with guilt or innocence.
It has nothing to do with the truth of the charges.
It's one of the most scurrilous political attacks I've ever seen, whether she's telling the truth or not, because Democrats don't actually want to get at the truth.
That's what's obvious from this procedural maneuvering.
They're not doing this because they want to know what actually happened.
They're not doing this because they think Brett Kavanaugh ought to be kicked off because they believe the charges.
They're doing this because they want a delay so that they can stop whoever Trump nominates.
That's all this is.
This isn't about...
Kavanaugh versus Christine Blasey Ford.
This is about Roe v. Wade.
This is about Democrats want to uphold what they believe to be a left majority on the Supreme Court.
Now, the irony is that Kavanaugh probably wouldn't vote to overturn Roe v. Wade in the first place.
But that doesn't actually matter.
For Democrats, it is important they stop whatever this nomination is.
The Democrats continue.
They say, if that review is closed, we call on the FBI to reopen it and properly investigate this new important information.
Like, based on what?
Again, based on what?
If you're the FBI, how do you possibly look at charges that are so unspecific?
We don't know date.
We don't know time.
We don't know location.
We don't know, maybe, year.
I mean, I guess the accusation is summer of 1982.
Summer of 1982 in an unspecified place.
What is the FBI supposed to do with that?
Use a time machine?
This isn't...
This isn't Minority Report.
Tom Cruise isn't in the back room with a bunch of weird goo people trying to figure out what's going to happen in the future and prevent future crime.
That's not how this works.
But of course the Democrats know that.
This is all a cynical ploy.
I do love how Democrats are playing all of this.
They say that she is absolutely believable.
What makes her absolutely believable?
That it's useful.
Barbara Boxer, who is just an idiot, former senator from the state of California, she was on MSNBC.
She was the stupidest woman in the United States Senate.
She's no longer there.
Now it's Feinstein and Kamala Harris.
Feinstein is smart.
Kamala Harris is not.
Barbara Boxer says, We should believe this woman.
Why should we believe this woman?
Well, because we should believe this woman.
But why, you ask?
Well, because we should!
Here's Barbara Boxer explaining.
This woman is to be believed.
Anna Eshoo is one of the most incredible people I know in this world.
She has a heart of gold and she's sharp.
She knows, after sitting with that woman, you can believe Anna Eshoo and you can believe Dr. Ford.
This was attempted rape.
And this is a woman who exhibits, Dr. Ford, courage, but the classic signs of post-traumatic stress.
What in the world?
Again, where's the evidence that this is true?
Well, the evidence is that she wants it to be true.
And we've seen this on both sides of the aisle, right?
We've seen that there are folks on the right who are like, oh, well, I don't believe the Roy Moore allegations.
Why don't you believe multiple women, something like eight women, who testified he used to hit on 14-year-old girls?
Well, because I don't believe them.
But why?
Well, because in this particular case, I don't know who to believe.
Right?
I don't know who to believe.
I think there are holes in her story that need to be filled.
I think that the Democrats are playing politics with this.
The Democrats are all fired sure that this woman's allegations are real.
Why?
Well, because it's politically convenient.
Here's Chuck Schumer.
I think the allegations of Professor Ford are extremely credible.
She took a lie detector test.
She talked to this to her therapist.
They were having family counseling in part because of what happened to her five years ago and told all the details.
And third, to come out and say something like this.
puts you and your family through incredible scrutiny.
People throw brickbats at you and everything else.
She didn't do it on a whim.
I don't think she did it for political reasons.
So she has a great deal of credibility.
Okay, this argument that a woman has a great deal of credibility because she has a lot to lose coming forward.
Who has more to lose?
Christine Blasey Ford or Judd Brett Kavanaugh, who's not only going to lose his career, but also a slot in the Supreme Court?
If we're going to talk about people who have something to lose and who are risking a lot here, it's Kavanaugh, not Christine Blasey Ford, who's being held up as a heroine for all of this.
Now, I'm not saying emotionally it's not difficult for her to come forward.
And again, I'm going to say it for the 1,000th time.
It's quite possible she's telling the truth, but I don't know, and you don't know, and nobody knows, because the only people in that room, even allegedly, were Brett Kavanaugh and Mark Judge, both of whom deny, and this woman.
Brett Kavanaugh, by the way, says he wasn't even at a party.
He says he wasn't even at that party.
And the left says, well, how does he know which party she's talking about unless he knows the party?
Well, maybe he wasn't at a party.
It's a pretty blanket claim.
It should be easy to debunk if the Democrats think they can debunk it.
So why can't they debunk it?
Because they don't feel they need to debunk it.
This is all politics.
And I'll talk in a minute about the lie detector side of this.
What Chuck Schumer has to say right there, because it's just asinine.
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So you heard Chuck Schumer there say, That this woman took a lie detector test.
Who cares?
Lie detectors are inadmissible in court.
They do not actually prove whether someone is lying or not.
According to live science, a polygraph is not a lie detector, and it never was.
A polygraph detects physiological expressions associated with lying in some people, such as a racing heart and sweaty fingers.
The determination of truth versus falsehood is a subjective interpretation by the polygraph examiner.
So when people say that they took a polygraph, that doesn't mean anything.
It legitimately means nothing.
It's not even admissible in court.
And this is now proof that she is absolutely telling the truth.
By the way, she could be telling the truth about what she thinks she believes.
People actually, over time, people have memories of events that are not necessarily the most accurate, but you start to believe that that was your memory of the event.
Because memories change over time.
I'm not even accusing this woman of bad faith.
All I'm saying is that if there's no corroborative evidence, there is no way to suggest that she is more believable than Brett Kavanaugh.
So President Trump responds to these accusations.
Here's what President Trump has to say.
Judge Kavanaugh is one of the finest people that I've ever known.
He's an outstanding judge, respected by everybody, never had even a little blemish on his record.
The FBI has, I think, gone through a process six times with him over the years where he went to higher and higher positions.
He is somebody very special.
Okay, this is just, it is cynical garbage, and how can you tell that it's cynical garbage the way the Democrats are playing this?
Again, not the accusation, the way the Democrats are playing it.
How can you tell it's cynical garbage?
Listen to Donna Brazile.
Donna Brazile was the head of the DNC briefly, before it turned out that she was feeding debate questions, allegedly.
to Hillary Clinton against Bernie Sanders, and then she was ousted.
Well, she's still a respected figure in Democratic circles for some odd reason.
But here is Donna Brazile explain— This, in a nutshell, is why Democrats are doing this.
Democrats are doing this as a delay tactic.
They are obvious about it.
They are not hiding the ball.
Here is Donna Brazile explaining.
Does that sound right to you, about a one-in-three chance of winning the Senate?
Absolutely.
Look, at the beginning of this cycle, we thought that the Republicans would take 60 seats in the Senate.
But Democrats are doing well in states that Donald Trump won in 2016.
Jill Manchin is doing very well.
So yes, we're confident.
Not overconfident, but confident that we can run the tables in the Senate.
That's what this is about.
Delay it until they run the table in the Senate, then they have a majority, then they can reject Brett Kavanaugh or anyone else Trump nominates and keep the Supreme Court seat open until after 2020, claiming that Trump is under FBI investigation, which he is not, and therefore that President Trump has no ability to appoint a Supreme Court justice.
Now, listen.
The Republicans know what's going on here, right?
Mitch McConnell knows what's going on here.
So, the Senate Majority Leader, he says, listen, it's obvious what's happening here.
Democrats waited until the 11th hour to dump this allegation, specifically in an attempt to scuttle Kavanaugh.
This is not about getting to the truth in any real way.
Yet chose to keep secret until the 11th hour.
Neither she nor any of her Democratic colleagues chose to raise this allegation during the committee staff's bipartisan background calls with the nominee.
Okay, all of this is true, what he is saying, and it is absurd the lengths to which the left is going on this.
When I say it's absurd, I mean legitimately absurd.
So now they have people like Julia Louis-Dreyfus signing letters in support of the accuser.
What the hell does the Veep star have to do with anything?
The answer is nothing.
The answer is nothing.
She signed a letter signed by 200 women from this woman's high school who say, quote, we believe Dr. Blasey Ford and are grateful that she came forward to tell her story.
So the hell what?
My gardener signed a letter in favor of Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Oooh!
My pool guy signed a letter in favor of Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
What in the world does Julia Louis-Dreyfus have to do with any of this?
Was she present at the party?
Nope.
Did she know Brett Kavanaugh?
Nope.
She once went to a high school that this woman also at one point attended.
Wow!
Ooh!
I went to Walter Reed Junior Middle School.
Okay, if I went to Walter Reed and somebody else went to Walter Reed, well, that means that if I sign a letter having to do with that person, even if they graduated 20 years before I went there, that means I have additional credibility on what they did in a bedroom that I haven't heard of 20 years, 36 years beforehand, maybe before I was born.
I should do that.
I went to Harvard Law School.
Anytime anything happens that is scandalous about a Harvard Law alum, and it happened before I was born, it happened like 1955, I should sign a letter saying, I don't believe this man is an alum of their law school.
This is the length to which the left is going.
And it's so absurd that it actually undercuts this woman.
It hurts the MeToo movement.
The MeToo movement was all about the believability and credibility of women.
The idea was, if a woman says something, we should initially give it credibility, and then we should go examine the evidence to try and confirm the story.
But we shouldn't dismiss her story out of hand, as many people sometimes want to do.
That was the case of the MeToo movement.
Instead, Democrats, by cynically using an accusation that has no corroborating evidence to this point, none, Okay, the first time this was ever reported to anyone who is not her husband in 2002 was 2012, 30 years after the event.
Instead of actually holding all of our accusations and accusers to the same standard of evidence, now that Democrats are cynically playing politics, it is obvious that they just want to believe what they want to believe here.
The best example that I can spot is from Anna Marie Cox, who was on MSNBC last night.
Again, the fact that anyone takes Anna Marie Cox seriously is beyond me, but she was on MSNBC last night on Lawrence O'Donnell's show, and she explains it doesn't matter Whether Kavanaugh is guilty or innocent, the only thing that matters is whether, in the hearings, he's nice to the woman.
I legitimately cannot make up what she's about to say.
Here's what she says.
A parallel here is that we need to judge Brett Kavanaugh not just on what he may or may not have done, but how he treats a woman's pain.
And that is something I'm going to be paying attention to on Monday.
Now, I'll give you a spoiler alert.
I don't think Brett Kavanaugh takes women's pain very seriously, and I know that because of the decisions he's made as a judge.
But I think that to have that unfold on national television live will be quite instructive.
I don't flip people off on this show, but you have no idea how tempted I am to throw up a double bird at that one.
I mean, that is just disgusting.
That's disgusting.
So if a woman accuses me, like Ben Shapiro, the woman accuses me of rape, and I say she's totally full of crap, this is made up for political purposes, then Anna Marie Cox's question is going to be, do I treat her pain with respect?
I'm falsely alleged to have committed rape or attempted rape, and I'm supposed to treat that woman's accusations, her pain, with respect?
That's how you're going to judge it?
And you're going to prejudge how I treat that woman based on the fact that I have ruled in the past in ways you don't like on judicial cases?
And then you have the gall to say this isn't a political maneuver?
This isn't a political hit job?
Again, they're undermining this woman.
When this first came out, I said, this woman is not uncredible.
I said it yesterday on the show.
And now the way the Democrats are treating this woman makes me think she is less credible just because of the way Democrats are treating her.
Because they're treating her as a political football.
That statement from Anna Marie Cox is just morally abysmal, morally disreputable, disgusting, repulsive, repugnant.
I'm going through the full thesaurus here.
I lose capacity for speech at how disgusting it is to suggest that if you are falsely accused of a crime, your activity in feeling the pain of the person falsely accusing you, in your view, is really the main consideration here, not your guilt or innocence.
It doesn't matter if the person is lying about you or got it wrong.
The only thing that matters is how nice you are about it when you deny it.
My God, my God, these people, and she has no shame.
Have these people no sense of decency or shame?
Just unbelievably absurd.
Unbelievably absurd.
Okay, in just a second, I'm going to get to some more response by Democrats to all this.
Plus, we'll take a look at the polls.
And President Trump says that he is going to declassify a lot of the Russiagate materials.
So we'll get to all of that and the Emmy.
So we have a lot coming up still on the show.
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All right, so it's not just Anna-Marie Cox saying something just morally excruciatingly disgusting there.
It's also Matthew Dowd.
So Matthew Dowd is the supposed conservative analyst on ABC political news.
He's on their Sunday shows a lot.
And Matthew Dowd tweeted out this regarding the Brett Kavanaugh accusations.
And this is why, you wonder why the MeToo movement is breaking down?
What the left has a tendency to do, what the left has a tendency to do is take issues where we are unified and then pick cases where there is not enough evidence for unity to be to be merited and then claim that lack of unity on this particular case demonstrates lack of unity on the underlying issue here's what i mean the left will say shooting police shooting black people in racist fashion is bad and people on the right go
that's of course of course and then the left will say michael brown was a gentle giant who was shot in cold blood in the back by a white police And the right will go, well, that's not true.
None of those things are true.
And the left will say, you don't take that crime seriously enough.
If you took that crime seriously enough, you would believe what I have to say.
And this just shows that the underlying issue you don't care about.
You don't care about racist shootings.
Doesn't matter that you thought that it was a racist shooting when Walter Scott was shot in the back in South Carolina.
Doesn't matter that you think the Philando Castile shooting was a bad shoot.
Doesn't matter.
That you can name off the top of your head five, six police shootings of people that are racially suspect at best.
If you don't agree with me on this fringe case where the evidence is not on my side, it demonstrates you don't have any care about the underlying issue.
That's the way the left likes to play these things.
And they're doing the same thing with regard to the MeToo movement.
Folks on the right are not in favor of sexual assault.
God forbid.
That's insane.
That's insane.
I'm the most sexually pure person that I have ever heard of in secular culture.
In the religious community, okay, I'm pretty common.
But in the non-religious community, I'm a dude who has had sex with one woman ever and it's my wife.
And it was after we were married.
And I was 24 when we got married.
So I'm pretty good about this stuff.
I believe that rapists should be castrated or killed.
I think rape is a worse crime than murder in many cases.
I think sexual abuse is the worst thing you can do to a human being, basically.
And the implication is if I have questions about this woman's account, because there's not enough evidence to verify it, that this means I don't care about sexual assault, that's how the MeToo movement falls apart.
That's how you take an issue where 90% of Americans agree and turn it into an issue where 55% of Americans agree.
And the left likes to do this.
The left wants to do this.
I don't think it's just the left, by the way.
I think that on the right, there's a tendency to do this with regard to the American flag, for example.
I think most Americans are not in favor of kneeling for the American flag.
President Trump, by injecting himself into the American flag kneeling situation, he may be technically right, but he's also allowing a polarization around a specific issue that's not good for the country.
The left does this on far less of an evidentiary basis than Trump does about kneeling for the flag.
The left picks cases like this Christine Ford case, where all we're saying is, can we see some more evidence?
And they say, well, if you don't just believe the woman, it's because you don't care about sexual assault.
If you don't just see and believe, hear and believe, then that means you don't care enough about women.
Matthew Dowd plays this game.
He says, it was despicable and outrageous what happened to Anita Hill more than 25 years ago, and a sexual predator was given a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court.
By the way, Never been proved that Clarence Thomas is a sexual predator.
I mentioned yesterday there are a lot of holes in Anita Hill's story.
There are a lot of holes at the time in Anita Hill's story.
She originally wanted to be anonymous before she came forward.
Once she came forward, there are a bunch of problems with her story, including the witnesses she talked to, including the fact that she called Clarence Thomas many, many times over many years after the supposed incident.
Matthew Dowd doesn't care.
He just labels Clarence Thomas a sexual predator.
He said, let's hope history doesn't repeat itself in 2018.
This is the supposed conservative ABC.
And then he continues and he says, I don't know if the allegations against Kavanaugh are true.
But keep in mind, every high profile man accused of sexual abuse denies it and has released a list of women saying they're a good guy.
And each one turned out to be an abuser.
So let me get this straight.
If you don't deny it, and you don't provide a list of character witnesses, you're guilty.
If you do deny it, and you provide a list of character witnesses, you're guilty.
This is the Monty Python Witch Test.
If we throw her in the water, and she's heavier than a duck, and she floats, and she must be a witch.
How can you have any semblance of justice under these conditions?
How can you have any semblance of sanity or certitude or decency under these conditions?
And then Matthew Dowd continues.
He says, enough with the he said, she said storyline.
If this is he said, she said, then let's believe the she in these scenarios.
Why?
Why?
Like really, why?
Without any corroborative evidence?
Are women inherently more believable?
I don't understand the logic here.
I thought the basis of feminism is that men and women are to be treated exactly the same way.
If that's the case, then why should we believe the woman over the man if he denies and she says it happened and there's no corroborative evidence?
Like, I'm more than willing to believe her story if she can even provide any corroborative evidence, but you're providing none, and then saying we should just believe the story.
And he says, this is one of their favorite things, she has nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Really?
She has nothing to gain?
What's that book deal gonna be like at the end of this story?
What's the TV deal gonna be like at the end of this story?
Anita Hill had everything to gain.
Anita Hill is a famous human.
She had an HBO full-on movie made about her and Clarence Thomas because supposedly he once said something about a pubic hair on a Coke can.
Hey, this is... Again, this woman may be telling the truth.
For the 1001st time during this program, she may be telling the truth.
But it is not true to suggest that she has nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Really?
I didn't always believe the he in these scenarios.
Like, I think that Bill Clinton probably raped Ronny Broderick.
I'm not believing the he in these scenarios.
I think that Roy Moore was preying on girls.
I think that Donald Trump has abused limits.
Where is he getting this?
And the answer is he's getting this from nowhere.
He's just looking for any sort of slim reed to hang his hat on here.
This is gross stuff.
And again, all of this has to do with electoral politics.
Right now, Republicans are having a tough time in the election polls.
The election polls Show right now, the Democrats have the upper hand in Arizona and Tennessee in the Senate races.
Kyrsten Sinema, who is a real radical in Arizona, now has a slight lead over Martha McSally in the latest CNN poll.
It shows that she is beating her by 7.50% to 43%.
In Tennessee, there's a candidate named Phil Bredesen, who is the former governor, and he holds a five-point edge over Marsha Blackburn, 50% to 45% among likely voters there.
Some of this has to do with the President of the United States, and the fact is that Bob Corker would still be running in Tennessee if Donald Trump hadn't basically destroyed him.
And in Arizona, President Trump has made himself unpopular by attacking John McCain and such, so Martha McSally is paying a polling price.
But if Arizona goes blue and Tennessee goes blue, that is a bad indicator.
That's a bad indicator.
Right now the chance is that the Democrats take the Senate are Not horrendous.
They're about the same as the chances that Donald Trump was going to win the presidency in 2016, according to FiveThirtyEight.
In just a second, I'm going to discuss some of those statistics and give you the latest breakdown on the Senate and why Democrats are so eager to vote.
Plus, we'll talk about President Trump revealing some new FISA documents and Stormy Daniels describing the president's junk.
Life hack, dudes.
If you don't want people who aren't your wife describing your junk, you probably shouldn't show your junk to people who aren't your wife.
Really, it's a life hack.
The description, I will say, it made me laugh.
I mean, I'm not going to lie about this.
Sure, it's the year of Yom Kippur.
Sure, it's the night before the night of Yom Kippur.
But if I can't get in a little bit of dirty-minded frippery before the holiday, then you're underestimating me.
We'll get to that in just one second.
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So the reason the Democrats are trying to hold off on Kavanaugh, as I've been saying this entire time, is because they're hoping they win the Senate.
According to FiveThirtyEight, many of the individual race forecasts in the FiveThirtyEight Senate model, which launched on Wednesday, look pretty optimistic for Democrats.
The model shows Manchin in strong position to retain his seat in West Virginia.
It has Democrats as slight favorites to win GOP seats in Nevada and Arizona.
It thinks Democratic incumbents like Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp could close well down the stretch.
It even gives Beto O'Rourke a credible shot in Texas, although Cruz remains the favorite in that race.
Right now, 538's House forecast is there is a 4-in-5 chance Democrats win control of Congress, a 1-in-5 chance that Republicans keep control of Congress.
And when you take a look at their Senate forecast, their Senate forecast basically say that there is a 2-in-3 shot that Republicans maintain the Senate, but there's a 1-in-3 shot that Republicans lose the Senate.
But 538 says the Senate model basically suggests Republicans have between a 2 and 3 and a 7 and 10 chance to hold the Senate depending on which version of their model they're looking at.
That's because the Senate map is really, really bad for Democrats.
It's about as unfavorable a map as any party has faced in the Senate ever.
Democrats have 26 seats up for election in November.
Republicans have just 9.
10 of those 26 seats are in states Trump won in 2016, including 5 states where he won overwhelmingly.
So Democrats could win the popular vote for the U.S.
House by 8 to 9 percentage points.
And they still would not win the Senate.
Instead, they need about an 11-point advantage in the House popular vote before they become favorites to claim the Senate.
But it's possible that Republicans could lose the Senate, and Democrats know this, and this is why they are attempting to push this vote off on Kavanaugh as long as humanly possible.
So, the tailwind could be strong enough to carry them.
Also, there are 11 seats that each party has at least a 10% chance of winning.
Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia.
Democrats need 8 of those 11 to take the Senate.
So Democrats, You know, have a have a micropath and a macropath, as FiveThirtyEight says.
And it is worth noting that Democrats are highly motivated.
Right now, if Republicans do not turn out to vote, they could lose the Senate.
And then Trump has a Democratic Congress the last two years of his first term, which is a disaster for President Trump.
He's going to be fighting investigations at every possible turn.
Impeachment hearings will probably be held.
Things will get very ugly very quickly.
You can sense the Democrats are really mobilized.
The way that you can sense this is from people like Charles Blow, who has a piece titled, Not Deranged, Determined.
The piece, spoiler alert, is actually kind of deranged.
It says, They told us that we suffered from Trump Derangement Syndrome, this of course is in the New York Times, an emotional and illogical obsession with opposing and unseating Donald Trump.
They saw our principled stand against corruption and criminality, against immorality and hatred, as born of hyper-partisanship and the bruises of defeat.
They were unable to see that our objection to Trump was an achingly particular phenomenon that transcended party tribalism, And went to the core of who we are as a people and as a country.
For us, it was clear.
This man was wholly unacceptable as a matter of character.
And true patriotism demanded that we say so without equivocation and unrelentingly.
And this is the feeling that you get.
I mean, I live in California, which means that you see a lot of folks in California who feel this way.
Democratic turnout is going to be very high.
Republicans cannot be sanguine.
Republicans have to turn out to vote.
Doesn't matter whether you like Trump or not.
The only thing that matters at this point is ensuring Republicans keep the Senate if you do not want Democrats to hold the Supreme Court at 8 and then wait until Justice Anthony Kennedy is replaced in 2021 by Justice Elizabeth Warren.
You got to be very worried about this if you are a Republican or a conservative in any way.
Meanwhile, President Trump is moving forward with declassification of documents related to the FISA warrants on Carter Page.
According to Politico, and I've been waiting for this for a long time, I keep saying, why doesn't Trump just release the documents?
If, in fact, the FBI was wrongly surveilling Carter Page, if, in fact, our nation's law enforcement bodies were targeting the Trump campaign, Trump has the ability to declassify all this, and he should.
And he should.
If he's got the goods, let's see the goods.
Well, it appears that Trump is now moving toward the revelation of those goods, which I think adds some credibility to his accusations.
Here's what Politico says about all of this.
President Trump moved on Monday to immediately release a tranche of former FBI director James Comey's text messages and declassified 20 pages of a surveillance application that targeted former campaign advisor Carter Page, Trump's latest offensive against a Russia investigation that has ensnared associates and has consumed his attention Trump's latest offensive against a Russia investigation that has ensnared associates and has consumed his The breadth of the order came as a surprise and landed him in a full-court White House effort to shore up the Supreme Court nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Trump demanded the FBI produce 20 pages of the surveillance application, which Republicans on Capitol Hill have suggested would help show anti-Trump bias at the highest levels of the FBI.
We're not going to be able to actually analyze how bad the Carter Page FISA warrant is until we actually see it.
But the fact that Trump wants to reveal more of it, not less of it, is an indicator that at least he thinks that something nefarious was going on.
Devin Nunes, who's been really pushing this at the House Government Oversight Committee, he says that a shocking number of people have bought the conspiracy theories and the real conspiracy here is that the FBI was basically targeting Team Trump.
But you are slowly starting to see this collapse in on them, even though the mainstream media is not covering this, because they seem so focused on drinking the Russian Kool-Aid, on terms of what's, you know, who's getting indicted by the special counsel, and instead focus on, look, was there any collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, which the answer is no.
Okay, so we'll see what's in the documents.
And this is another case where I'm going to do the unpopular thing and say I'm going to wait to see the actual documents before I jump to the FBI was targeting Trump.
But the fact that Trump wants to release more, not less, is an indicator that at least he thinks he has some of the goods on the so-called deep state targeting him.
Well, in just a second, we're going to talk about Stormy Daniels at long last and her accusations in her new book because she's a feminist heroine.
Let me tell you, she's just a hero for the ages.
We'll talk about that in just one second.
So here is Stormy Daniels has a new book coming out.
Because you have to read a book by a porn star.
I mean, come on.
This is a woman who has forged her way, using nothing but grit and her genitals, toward the head of American public life.
This is a woman who was featured on Saturday Night Live telling President Trump to step down because she had consensual sex with him a couple of times.
I mean, just amazing stuff from Stormy Daniels.
So, the new book is called Full Disclosure, and it's now been obtained by the UK Guardian, which is the source of choice for all left-wingers.
And basically, The Guardian acts as sort of a conduit for a lot of left-wing material, which is their prerogative.
It's a left-wing newspaper.
In it, Daniels describes her mounting disbelief as Trump began to win primary contests in 2016 for the Republican presidential nomination.
Former castmates, whom she had not heard from in years, but who had heard her story about sleeping with Trump in 2006, would call her up to marvel at the news.
As Trump kept winning Daniels' rights, she began to think she might be in danger.
And this is where she starts telling her stories again.
About how she was threatened in 2011 by somebody associated with Trump and all the rest of this again providing little to no evidence that this ever happened.
She did take a $130,000 payment from Team Trump to shut up about it and then of course she's getting a book deal so that'll be lucrative for her.
She continued to answer Trump's many phone calls over the next year after she had an affair with him back in 2006.
In hopes that he would make good on his promise to put her on his reality television show, The Apprentice, Daniel writes.
Trump even suggested that a cheat could be arranged to allow her to survive through more episodes of the show.
Quote, we'll figure out a way to get you the challenges beforehand.
She quotes him as saying, and we can devise your technique.
He was going to have me cheat, and it was 100% his idea.
Ooh, ooh, clearly he is the nefarious character here.
Not you, the porn star who had sex with a married man and then took $130,000 to shut up about it and had sex with him in the hopes that you'd get on TV.
Clearly the only bad character here is Trump.
Now listen, this is not me defending Trump.
I think Trump with regard to women is dirt.
I think he's terrible with regard to the way he's treated women over the course of his life.
But Stormy Daniels is not a nun.
Hey, Stormy Daniels is not the paragon of female virtue.
She's not even the paragon of honesty.
Come on.
And this is ridiculous.
Trump has denied any... I love this.
She says, whenever she saw Trump on television for years afterward, Daniels writes, an internal monologue would play out.
I had sex with that, I'd say to myself.
But you did.
Right, this was you!
You're not a victim, lady.
I mean, you decided you were going to have sex with a married man because you don't care about sex that much, and because you thought that it would be worthwhile to get on The Apprentice.
And then there's the part of the book that everybody cares deeply about.
This is her first sexual encounter with Donald Trump.
Trump's bodyguard invites Daniels to dinner, which turns out to be an invitation to Trump's penthouse, she writes, in a description of alleged events that Daniels has disclosed previously, but which in the book are rendered with new and lurid detail.
She describes Trump's genitals, his penis, as, quote, smaller than average, but not freakishly small.
I'm so glad we're doing this.
Daniels writes, he knows he has an unusual penis.
It has a huge mushroom head like a toadstool.
All right.
And she says, I lay there annoyed that I was getting bleeped by a guy with Yeti pubes and a bleep like a mushroom character in Mario Kart.
It may have been the least impressive sex I'd ever had, but clearly he didn't share that opinion.
Yeah, so now it's just, she's trolling for Trump to respond to all of this.
And, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump does respond to all of this.
He just has to decide whether he looks more like Yoshi or Baby Luigi down there.
Like, I just, I don't understand.
Legitimately, like, this is where we are.
And I look forward to the point when we can be asked about all this on stage.
We now have two presidents in my lifetime who've had their penises described in national publications.
We now know what Bill Clinton's penis looked like, according to Paula Jones.
And we now know what Donald Trump's penis looks like, according to Stormy Daniels.
And all I can say, all I can say is that it might be worthwhile for guys to keep it in their pants.
How about we start with that life hack?
Junk in your pants if you don't want people describing that junk publicly.
I do love, though, that Stormy Daniels is playing this as though she was some sort of victim.
She went there and she says, you know, Donald promised me that I'd be on The Apprentice.
And Trump was probably like, right, The Apprentice, that's what I call my little guy.
I want to put you on The Apprentice.
It's all so salacious and gross, but this is our politics.
This is the game we have chosen!
This is the politics we have chosen!
This is the business we have chosen!
Ah, good times.
Good times.
Okay, time for some things I like, and then some things that I hate.
And things I hate will be combined with deconstructing the culture today, so...
Things I like.
On a much more serious note, tonight is Yom Kippur, so after all of that hilarity, I'm going to have to do a bit of atonement this evening and tomorrow.
And I'm going to go from actually the most ridiculous stuff to the most serious stuff that ever happened.
There's a book that I read over Rosh Hashanah, which is a history of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising.
Man, how I switched gears on this one is beyond me.
But the book is called Resistance by Israel Gutman, who is the head of the Yad Vashem Museum dedicated to the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, at least part of it.
And the book is sort of a comprehensive look at what happened during the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising of 1943, one of the great kind of heroic Jewish stories of all time.
The Nazis had shipped off.
The Warsaw Ghetto was in and of itself an enormous human rights violation.
Basically, 400,000 Jews were shipped into an area one mile square.
They were put nine to a room.
They were allotted 143 calories a person.
By the Nazis.
The Nazis basically wanted to starve them to death.
And then when the final solution was decided upon, they started shipping all of these folks to Auschwitz.
After the first shipment to Auschwitz, a group of Jews, knowing they were going to die anyway, formed a resistance with pretty much no arms, and they proceeded to hold off the Germans for weeks on end.
All the way from April 19th, 1943 into mid-May, they held off the German army.
It's a pretty amazing story.
You can check it out.
Israel Gutman's The Resistance.
There's also a pretty good movie that was made about this called Uprising with, I think, Hank Azaria and Donald Sutherland.
And Lili Sobieski?
I think that's her name?
Lila Sobieski?
The actress.
She's quite good.
It's a good movie, so check that out as well.
Israel Gutman's Resistance.
Okay, time for some things that I hate.
So one of the things that's very difficult about the internet is that so many memes go around and you're never sure what's real or not.
So there's a meme that was going around of Anderson Cooper standing in really deep water while his producer stood above him with a camera.
And we were supposed to believe that Anderson Cooper was sort of faking it.
It was from Hurricane Ike in 2008, I believe.
And the implication was that Anderson Cooper was faking the footage that the water wasn't really all that deep.
And this followed on the heels of a lot of video from the current hurricane where you'd see like a weather person standing in front trying to brace against the wind and then two dudes walking in the background like there was no big deal happening.
Well, the problem is that if you're going to actually make those sorts of accusations, you probably should back them up.
Anderson Cooper rightly is ticked off about this.
He says that entire segment was about how there are ditches underwater and that you can be walking along and not spot the ditch and go plunging right into the ditch.
Here's Anderson Cooper explaining.
Now, over the weekend, however, the son of the president, Donnie Jr., tweeted out this picture of me in waist-high water, my camera crew a few feet away on higher ground in only a little bit of water.
Donnie Jr.
was claiming it showed me in Florence faking the depths of floodwaters in order to somehow harm his father.
And I quote from his tweet, stop lying to try to make at-real Donald Trump look bad, he wrote.
Now look, I don't expect the President's son to ever admit he was wrong, or one of the President's former advisors, or frankly anyone else who's retweeted these pictures.
But I at least thought that they, and you, should know the truth.
Okay, and he's not wrong to be upset about that.
I will say that nowhere in that tweet from Donald Trump Jr.
does he actually accuse Cooper of doing this during the current hurricane, but the level of vagary in the tweet is not a great thing, and people should be careful about what they tweet.
You know, we all make mistakes on Twitter because everything moves too fast.
You sort of retweet what comes across your page, but if you're going to make those sorts of accusations, you ought to be clear about it.
Okay, so meanwhile, the Emmys happened last night.
And I'm not sure that anybody actually watched the Emmys.
I'm not sure what the ratings were like.
I can't imagine they were great.
But it was typical Hollywood leftist culture.
And as I've said many times, what we have right now in America is a cultural divide that is reflecting itself in politics.
The left has taken the commanding heights in culture and the right responds by taking the commanding heights in politics.
They say, you guys want to come for our guns.
You call us bitter clingers.
You call us deplorables.
You call us all sorts of names.
And you know what we're going to do?
We're going to protect ourselves by ensuring that our politicians don't agree with you.
Well, that was underscored last night by just more politicking from the Emmy stage, because they can't just give awards to people on the basis of non-politics, they have to talk politics, naturally.
Last Man Standing was cancelled by ABC and then picked up by Fox.
That's right.
Which is great.
That's right.
And Roseanne was cancelled by herself, but picked up by white nationalists.
You know, I heard Roseanne is actually moving to Israel.
Wow.
I mean, damn.
How messed up is your life when you have to go to the Middle East just to get peace of mind?
Okay, now that last joke is particularly stupid because Israel is actually a pretty good place to live.
I mean, I have a lot of relatives in Israel.
How many of these folks in Hollywood have said that they want to pick up and move to Canada just because Trump was elected in the first place?
That's a really dumb point.
Also, ripping on Roseanne is sort of like your chief rip.
You know, that she's picked up by white nationalists.
Meanwhile, half the people in the audience are engaged in sins, various and sundry, is a little bit absurd.
But that wasn't the extent of it.
The red carpet was replete with people in Hollywood virtue signaling for the SJW crowd.
I am wearing Nike to applaud them for supporting Colin Kaepernick and his protest against racial injustice and police brutality.
These are not dark times.
These are awakening times.
And we all have to wake up!
If you could say something to Colin right now, what would it be?
Thank you, Colin.
Thank you for all that you do.
Thank you for being brave.
Thank you for being courageous.
Thank you for taking a knee.
Thank you for making millions of dollars from a massive multinational corporation that uses cheap labor from abroad just so that people can posture on red carpets.
Well done, Hollywood.
Well done, Hollywood.
Can't imagine why anybody wouldn't trust you with the future of the country.
And the left doesn't understand that when they insult the rest of the country culturally, the country responds by putting people in power who they think will protect them from Hollywood.
You want to know what makes people in the middle of the country feel threatened?
The idea that folks on the Emmy stage will one day be in the halls of power again governing them.
That's what scares people in the middle of the country, and rightly so.
OK, final thing that I hate.
So Thandie Newton was also at the Emmys, and she had to drop this line.
It is very important to virtue signal about feminism and atheism at the same time from the stage.
So Thandie Newton won an award for Westworld.
She is quite good in Westworld.
She's a terrific actress.
But here's what she had to say after winning.
- Pandy Newton. - I don't even believe in God, but I'm gonna thank her tonight. - Well, I don't even believe in the Emmys, but I'm going to laugh at them right now, because why do we possibly care what Thandie Newton thinks about God?
The sort of disparaging remark that God is only God if God is a woman?
We did this with Ariana Grande, who did a song the same way, and it was God is a woman, but God was apparently a very highly sexualized woman performing for the pleasure of men, so that was weird.
Again, this sort of cultural sneering is not going to be to Hollywood's benefit, and I think that they haven't paid the price for it yet, but they will at some point in the future.
Speaking of which, Sir Paul McCartney has a new song ripping President Trump as well.
His new song talks about how terrible President Trump is.
The song is called Despite Repeated Warnings, and it contains this jab against President Trump.
What can we do?
We've stuck this foolish plan going through.
What can we do?
What can we do?
Yeah, yeah!
This band is bound to lose his ship and his crew.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
So I think the Beatles are the most overrated band in history, but this is much worse than the Beatles.
Okay, Paul McCartney on his own is much worse than the Beatles.
It's just a bad song and also this kind of blunderbuss approach.
This man is bound to lose his ship and his crew.
Self-righteousness from people who can't Read music is always weird to me.
Just the musical self-righteousness of these folks.
Again, there are lots of reasons to criticize President Trump, but our cultural better is informing us why President Trump ought not be trusted on politics.
I'll assume Paul McCartney knows about music, somewhat, but I'm not going to assume he knows much about politics just because he writes songs like that.
I'm not sure from that song he knows much about music, because the song sucks.
Okay, well we will be back here, not tomorrow, because tomorrow is Yom Kippur.
We will be back here on Thursday with all of the latest.
I'm Ben Shapiro.
This is The Ben Shapiro Show.
The Ben Shapiro Show is produced by Senya Villareal, executive producer Jeremy Boring, senior producer Jonathan Hay.
Our supervising producer is Mathis Glover, and our technical producer is Austin Stevens.
Edited by Alex Zingaro.
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