Nov. 11, 2016 - The Ben Shapiro Show
18:15
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| So, FBI Director James Comey has now revealed that the 650,000 treasure trove of emails the FBI discovered on Anthony Weiner's laptop doesn't contain any information that would make him rethink his decision not to recommend indictment for Hillary Clinton. | |
| According to the Washington Post, quote, the agents' work at first seemed endless. | |
| They had to use special software to sift through 650,000 emails, but they accomplished this formidable task. | |
| And then Comey announced that, quote, all of the communications that were to or from Hillary Clinton while she was Secretary of State had not changed our conclusions. | |
| Most of the emails, but not all, reportedly duplicated other emails turned over by Clinton earlier or discovered by the FBI. | |
| That statement, notably, did not say that the Clinton Foundation had been let off the hook. | |
| It hasn't been. | |
| New wiki leaks over the email demonstrate further corruption, from Hillary sending classified emails to her maid to print, to Chelsea allegedly using Foundation dollars to sponsor her wedding. | |
| So, Hillary's still corrupt. | |
| And yes, she's still a criminal. | |
| And according to the Democrats, Hillary's back to being innocent, and Comey's back to being a saint-like wonder dude. | |
| But the real question is this. | |
| What in the world was James Comey thinking? | |
| Well, in July, Comey refused to recommend Clinton for indictment. | |
| He did so by changing the law itself, requiring a level of intent that simply did not exist in the regulations. | |
| Those regulations demand merely proving gross negligence. | |
| It's hard to get more grossly negligent with classified material Then setting up a private server in a bathroom and then funneling classified information through it and making it vulnerable to hack in the process. | |
| Or, by the way, sending that material to your higher janitorial help for printing. | |
| It's no surprise Comey's let her off the hook again. | |
| Once you change the standard of the law, you'd actually need to find an email from Hillary to Vladimir Putin sending him the names of American spies in order to indict her. | |
| But here's what actually happened here. | |
| Comey rushed to let her off, then he rushed to get himself off, then he rushed to let her off again when the polls went south. | |
| No wonder nobody trusts the FBI now. | |
| It's a political tool. | |
| No matter what happens tomorrow, Hillary will never be trusted by the American people. | |
| And nobody will trust James Comey or Loretta Lynch to do justice. | |
| That means the American people won't give Hillary any sort of bully pulpit or any credibility when she makes her case to the American people. | |
| Maybe, perhaps, that's the only good news to come from this horror show of an election. | |
| I'm Ben Shapiro. | |
| This is The Ben Shapiro Show. | |
| So much to get to today here on the Ben Shapiro Show. | |
| It is the day before election day, so I will give you my election prediction 2016. | |
| I'll give you the state-by-state breakdown. | |
| I'll tell you how I think the popular vote is going to come down. | |
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| Okay. | |
| So, lots going on in the world. | |
| Nate Silver, who's sort of the elections guru, he says that Donald Trump is relatively close to a path to winning. | |
| Here's what he had to say about Donald Trump's chances on Sunday. | |
| So we show about a three-point lead nationally for Clinton, and she's about a two-to-one favorite. | |
| The Electoral College math is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago, where four years ago we had Obama ahead in states totaling 320-some electoral votes. | |
| Clinton has about 270, so she's one state away from potentially losing Electoral College. | |
| You'd rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump's, but it's not a terribly Okay, so he says 65.7% chance of winning. | |
| And he says that Trump does have a path. | |
| That basically he's one state away from winning. | |
| This is reflective of the polls over the weekend. | |
| So basically, in order for Trump to win, he has to win North Carolina. | |
| He has to win Florida. | |
| He has to win Ohio, he has to win Nevada, and then he has to win New Hampshire. | |
| And if he wins one of the votes in Maine, then he takes the election. | |
| That is his most plausible path to victory in this election cycle, which means this sucker could be over early. | |
| It is possible that this is over, you know, very early in the evening. | |
| If he loses New Hampshire and North Carolina, he can kiss this election goodnight. | |
| It's donezo. | |
| It's over. | |
| Turn out the lights. | |
| Four years of Hillary Clinton's horror show. | |
| Okay, so that's where Nate Silver puts this election. | |
| The Democrats Either don't seem particularly certain of this election or they're just trying to gin their base to get out by saying it's closer than it is. | |
| John Podesta says that he thinks that Hillary can hold Michigan. | |
| She certainly should hold Michigan. | |
| She's up like five or six points in Michigan. | |
| Now we're going to Michigan, to New Hampshire, to Pennsylvania where they do it the old-fashioned way. | |
| Everybody votes on election day. | |
| We feel like we got a lead in Michigan. | |
| We want to hold on to it and we think we can do that. | |
| Okay, so he says that they're going to hold on to Michigan, and I think that in all likelihood they will. | |
| Mike Pence is saying Republicans are coming home. | |
| This is shown by the statistics. | |
| Republicans are coming back to Trump in the late days of the election because, for most people, politics ends up being a team sport. | |
| You're just going to vote for the person with the name of the party by their name. | |
| Pence makes the case for Trump in the closing hours here. | |
| We're 100 percent focused on bringing home a great victory for the American people. | |
| And Republicans are coming together, Chris. | |
| I was yesterday with Speaker Paul Ryan in Wisconsin a couple of days before. | |
| I was with Governor Doug Ducey in Arizona last night here in Virginia with Ed Gillespie. | |
| Republicans are coming home and recognizing that we need to elect Donald Trump as the next president, reelect a strong Republican majority. | |
| And Republicans are coming home with independents and Democrats at their side to make sure that Hillary Clinton is never elected president of the United States. | |
| OK, so there are a couple of things that people are questioning about the polls. | |
| One is they don't know what the turnout's actually going to be like. | |
| Is there the secret base of Trump voters who are going to show up out of the woodwork and just vote for Trump? | |
| I think that's unlikely. | |
| I do. | |
| I mean, I've yet to meet a closeted Trump supporter. | |
| They don't really exist, as far as I can tell. | |
| Trump supporters tend to be very loud and very proud about who they're voting for. | |
| I'm not seeing a lot of people, even in California, And this is anecdotal, to be sure, but now we're talking in the realm of anecdotal because there are no real statistical studies. | |
| But I really doubt, I do doubt that there are a lot of Trump supporters who are simply lying to pollsters or they're not registering in the polls. | |
| The other possibility is a lot of the independents are going to swing to Trump, and the polls are not really supporting that idea either. | |
| So now I'm going to give you my breakdown of how I think this election is actually going to go. | |
| So here is my prediction, and you can take it to the bank or not, as the case may be. | |
| Here's where I think this comes down to. | |
| So, in order for Trump to win, as I say, he has to win North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada, and then he has to win one more state. | |
| New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. | |
| All the talk about Minnesota. | |
| It ain't gonna happen. | |
| He's gonna get blown out in Minnesota. | |
| So, let's go through those really quickly. | |
| North Carolina. | |
| So far, 3 million ballots have been cast in North Carolina, which is a little bit more than were cast in early voting in 2012. | |
| It was like 2.8 million in 2012. | |
| The Hispanic turnout is up a little bit, which is good news for Hillary. | |
| The black turnout is apparently down rather dramatically, which is really bad news for Hillary Clinton because she needs the black turnout in order to drive her over the top. | |
| Nate Cohn of the New York Times estimated as of October 31st, he said about 2.9 million people had voted in North Carolina. | |
| Out of the 4.6 million who would eventually vote. | |
| So that's a huge number of people who vote early in North Carolina. | |
| He says, based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. | |
| That seems real high to me. | |
| 538 gives Hillary a 50.6% shot to beat Trump in North Carolina. | |
| Now I will say, Trump doesn't have a ground game. | |
| So it's possible the polls are off in the other direction as well, that the Democrats are really going to get out to vote, they're going to send people to bus people to the polls, they're going to make sure all their elderly voters get out to vote, and the turnout game is what decides North Carolina. | |
| I think that Hillary will end up winning North Carolina, but I do think that it'll be very close, and I think that Richard Burr, who's the senator from North Carolina, may end up maintaining his seat. | |
| He's the Republican. | |
| In Florida, it's also basically a dead heat. | |
| According to FiveThirtyEight, it's essentially a dead heat in Florida between Clinton and Trump. | |
| There's been some conflicting information about the early voting. | |
| Originally, there was a case being made that the early voting was really good for Trump. | |
| In the last four days, the early voting has shifted a little bit more toward Hillary Clinton. | |
| Apparently, very, very heavy Hispanic turnout. | |
| In the early voting in Florida. | |
| Apparently some 6.1 million ballots have already been cast in the state of Florida. | |
| Democrats lead Republicans by just half a percentage point. | |
| There's a poll out today that shows that people who plan on voting election day are gonna vote heavily Trump. | |
| The question is how many of those people there are and how heavily Trump that is. | |
| So this one is definitely up in the air. | |
| But if Hispanics vote disproportionately in Florida, and they're not all Cuban Hispanics, then it's possible that Trump loses Florida as well. | |
| I think that he's going to lose both North Carolina and Florida. | |
| It's a pessimistic vision for Trump. | |
| But again, he hasn't spent any time building a ground game, so I think that's likely. | |
| Ohio, I think Trump will win. | |
| CNN says that Hillary trails Obama's number substantially in the early voting. | |
| 538 gives him a 65% chance of winning the state. | |
| That's solid enough for me. | |
| I will say that Trump wins Ohio. | |
| I think he's going to win Iowa as well. | |
| He's up big in Iowa. | |
| The latest poll from the Des Moines Register gives him a seven point lead there. | |
| In Nevada, Clinton is going to win. | |
| So before Trump was up pretty big, or at least he had drawn into the lead in the last few weeks, last three, four weeks, Hillary has a major advantage in the early voting. | |
| According to John Ralston, who does elections analysis, For one of the local news stations in Vegas, he says about 770,000 votes have been cast, which is about two-thirds of the entire vote in the state of Nevada. | |
| If you suppose an election day turnout of 450,000 voters, Trump needs to win on Tuesday by 10 points to win. | |
| This is almost impossible. | |
| So assume that he loses Nevada. | |
| Now remember, these are all states he needs to win. | |
| If he loses one of these states, he's done. | |
| He has to win all of these states. | |
| He cannot afford to lose any of these states unless he's going to win one of the outliers like Michigan or Pennsylvania. | |
| We'll get to those in just a second. | |
| In New Hampshire, New Hampshire is apparently really close right now in the latest polling average, but you sort of have to look over the last year. | |
| For the last year, Hillary led New Hampshire by as much as double digits. | |
| There's about a one-week spate right after the Comey announcement of the renewed FBI investigation, where suddenly Trump was ahead by anywhere from one to three points. | |
| Now there are a couple new polls that show Hillary back up. | |
| I think that Clinton is probably going to win New Hampshire. | |
| Colorado, Clinton is going to match Obama's numbers in the early voting. | |
| That means that she's probably going to win Colorado. | |
| Virginia, which used to be a Republican state, Has not voted Republican now, probably for the last 12 years. | |
| The last time they voted Republican was 2004. | |
| A lot of the people who live in Washington, D.C. | |
| have moved into suburban Virginia, and they've been infusing northern Virginia with this blue feel, so Virginia's likely to go for Hillary Clinton. | |
| Wisconsin polling looks bad for Trump. | |
| Michigan polling looks bad for Trump. | |
| He's spending an awful lot of time there. | |
| You saw Podesta a minute ago saying that he thinks that Hillary's going to pull it out. | |
| I think that she's going to win by a relatively large margin there. | |
| Pennsylvania, Clinton is expected to win there. | |
| 538 gives Trump a 23% likelihood of a pickup. | |
| So, I know, I'm not going to give you the rah-rah speech today. | |
| I'm not going to lie to you about what's happening here. | |
| I'm not going to lie to you that Trump is on the verge of victory. | |
| I don't think he is. | |
| I think there are some other people, you know, who have been suggesting otherwise. | |
| I know there's a piece by Henry Olson over at National Review where he says the polls aren't taking into account the factors I mentioned before. | |
| You know, the Turnout game from Trump, the idea of the missing Trump voter who is secretly hiding and just hiding from pollsters in a basement somewhere. | |
| I don't think that's real. | |
| My final tally is I think that Trump ends up with 217 electoral votes. | |
| I think Hillary ends up with 322 electoral votes, which means he wins slightly more electoral votes than Romney did and more obviously than McCain did, but still gets blown out in pretty handy fashion. | |
| That's in the Electoral College. | |
| I think in the popular vote, he will lose by more than Romney did. | |
| I think he's going to win Iowa. | |
| I think he'll probably win Ohio. | |
| Maybe not. | |
| But I think that he will certainly win Iowa. | |
| I don't know if he's going to win Ohio. | |
| But in any case, in the popular vote, I think that people are underestimating the level of hatred that Democrats and leftists have for Trump. | |
| And it's not just because they think he's conservative, OK? | |
| They would have hated Cruz also or Rubio. | |
| It's because of who Trump is. | |
| They don't like the stuff that Trump says. | |
| I think some of that is justified. | |
| They think Trump is an unpalatable nutjob. | |
| I think that about a quarter of that is, I think, unpalatable is right. | |
| Nutjob, I think, is a little bit less charitable. | |
| But in any case, I think that you're going to see heavy turnout in places like New York and California, just as a way for leftists to virtue signal to their friends that they voted against Trump. | |
| So I think that the popular vote margin will be larger than Romney, even though right now the popular vote margin, the polls show anywhere from 2.9 to 3.3 points in the spread. | |
| I think that the final result is going to be something like Hillary Clinton 49 or 50 to Donald Trump 44. | |
| I think it'll be a five or six point victory, which is a pretty sweeping victory for Hillary Clinton. | |
| All of this should make you pretty sad, given the fact that we didn't have to nominate this guy. | |
| There's a poll out today that shows what would have happened if we'd nominated, for example, Mitt Romney, who I didn't support for the nomination. | |
| If we had nominated Mitt Romney, he would have clobbered Clinton 50 to 40. | |
| If Obama had run against Trump, by the way, this is why you can't trust the people who say, well, look, Trump's a better candidate than Romney. | |
| He's going to win more electoral votes. | |
| He's not running against Barack Obama. | |
| He's running against Hillary Clinton, legitimately the worst major party nominee in the history of American politics, except for the moron we ran. | |
| So it's just it's devastating. | |
| If Obama had run against Trump, he would have beaten him, according to these polls, 53 to 41. | |
| 53 to 41, which is just devastating. | |
| So that's how the polls stack up. | |
| That's how all of this stacks up. | |
| Now, I want to go through, and we will go through in just a moment, sort of the final arguments on both sides. | |
| Because if there's been one thing that's true of this election, it's that every negative thing that each side says about the other is true. | |
| Everything they say about themselves is a lie. | |
| And we'll go through that, and we'll talk about what impact that has on our politics in just a moment. | |
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| Okay, so the media, just to point this out, what this election has done— People wanted this to be the burn it all down election. | |
| And in a sense they got exactly what they were looking for. | |
| Everything was burned down. | |
| Some for the good, some for the ill. | |
| For the ill, I would say that conservatism has been burned out, hollowed out from the inside by a lot of the Trump movement. | |
| Although I think that after this election, you will see an attempt to restore conservatism, not of the Bush variety, but of a new conservative libertarian variety. | |
| There will have to be a new conservatism, but based on constitutional conservative principles and not establishmentarian compromise principles. | |
| I think that will happen. | |
| But in the meantime, conservatism has been harmed pretty severely by the Trump candidacy. | |
| That's a bad thing. | |
| But on the good side, the media have just fallen apart. | |
| So it has now been revealed, and this really is amazing, that apparently, apparently, this is according to media, DNC Research Director Lauren Dillon sent a pair of emails to CNN staffers with the hope that they would use her emails, these questions that she wrote for them, to ask Donald Trump. | |
| The first email had the subject line, Trump questions for CNN, and it says, Wolf Blitzer is interviewing Trump on Tuesday ahead of his foreign policy address on Wednesday. | |
| Please send me thoughts by 1030 a.m. | |
| tomorrow. | |
| This is from Lauren Dillon, the DNC research director. | |
| She wrote that to her folks. | |
| The idea being that she was then going to funnel those questions over to CNN and they would ask the questions. | |
| There's another letter that suggested the same thing about Ted Cruz. | |
| That letter said, it was from Dylan to her friend, said, CNN is looking for questions. | |
| Please send some topical, interesting ones, maybe a couple on Fiorina. | |
| Someone please take point and send them all together. | |
| By 3 p.m. | |
| So, in other words, the DNC was directly coordinating with people over at CNN to ask questions to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. | |
| That is an amazing thing. | |
| The media have destroyed all their credibility. | |
| That may be the only good thing about this election cycle. | |
| The Democrats' credibility has also been destroyed, by the way. | |
| And we'll get to that in just a second as we see the Democrats' final pitch. | |
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